Building Resilience in an Urban World
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Transcript of Building Resilience in an Urban World
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Building Resilience in an Urban World
Abhas K. JhaProgram Leader,
Disaster Risk ManagementEast Asia PacificThe World Bank
Santa Fe Institute Trustee and Business Network Symposium,November 2, 2012
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I am going to talk about 3 things today….
1. The rising trend in disasters and what are the key drivers behind it.
2. How is the World Bank addressing this issue.
3. Some emerging future directions.
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3 Main Messages
1. The growth of people and assets in harm’s way, due to rapid urbanization will be, by far, the biggest driver of disaster risk over the next few decades.
2. The deep uncertainties from climate change implies the need for “robust” solutions-that work (“good enough”)across a wide range of scenarios.
3. The risks of disasters cannot be completely eliminated:a) Preparing for “graceful” failureb) Getting the balance right between structural and non-structural
measures
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1. Trends
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Rome Wasn’t Built in Day..
China Does it in Two Weeks!
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Where is this urbanization happening?
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Africa, Indian Sub-Continent and China
25%
25%
15%
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Small and Medium Towns
Growth in population by city scales. Source: based on Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects: The 2009 Revision.
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Increasing Trend of Disasters
Source: MunichRe
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The Major Takeaway from the IPCC SREX
“Long-term trends in normalized losses have not been attributed to natural or anthropogenic climate change”
-IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation
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Source: Pielke and Landseahttp://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/lanina/figures.html#fig2
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Source: Ranger and Garbett-Shiels, 2011
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Cascading failures, fragile networks“Networks that are efficient are often not resilient, because resilient networks have inefficient redundancies. Resilience is a public good, created by the right kind of redundancy.”
-Michael Spence
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Japanese mining and manufacturing production in March: -15.5% (the biggest drop in history)
Japanese export in April: -12%
The major disaster area in Tohoku(Iwate, Miyagi and Fukushima)
National population share 4.5%National GDP share 4%
:
Source: Prof. Masahisa Fujita
Complex, Cascading, Non-linear
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March 11, 2011: The Headline You Did Not Read
Prevention pays but design systems that “fail gracefully”.
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Risk Tolerance= F (Affordability)ALARP Principle
ALARP Principle
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2. Examples
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A Quick Word on the World Bank
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PACIFIC RISK INFORMATION
SYSTEM
Integration of Climate Change projections
Urban Planning and Infrastructure Design
Professional and Institutional
Capacity Development
Rapid Disaster Impact Estimation
Macroeconomic Planning & Disaster
Risk Financing
Source SOPAC
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Satellite imagery
Administrative Boundaries
Population Census
Agricultural Census
Surface Geology Topographic maps Surface soil Bathymetry
Geodetic and Fault Data Infrastructure References
Source: SOPAC
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Creating Robust Risk Information
Pacific Catastrophe Risk Assessment and Risk Financing in association with SPC/SOPAC and the ADB
Hazard
Risk
Exposure/Vulnerability
PortMoresby
Lae
155° E
155° E
150° E
150° E
145° E
145° E
5° S
5° S
10°
S
10°
S
Papua New Guinea
0 200 400100
Kilometers
AAL / Asset Value
0% - 0.05%
0.05% - 0.1%
0.1% - 0.15%
0.15% - 0.2%
0.2% - 0.3%
0.3% - 0.4%
0.4% - 0.5%
0.5% - 1.15%
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Risk Assessment
PolicyConditions
EventGeneration
ExposureInformation
DamageEstimation
LossCalculation
Mitigation / PolicyConditions
Limit
Deductible
IntensityCalculation
Source: SOPAC
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Country risk profilesAn Illustration with Solomon Islands
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Acting collectively for cost-effective financial solutions against major disasters
Adding more countries increases risk diversification benefits
Adding more perils increases risk diversification benefits
Note: Impact of risk diversification on 150yr loss
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Geonodes: Sharing Information for Resilience
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Participatory Mapping: OpenStreetMap
DKI Jakarta:
100% coverage
Over 6000 structures digitized
2,658 RW mapped
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InaSAFE Impact analysis
Click
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Jakarta flood prone areas and hospitals lo
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Exact location of potentially flooded hospitals
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Building the Open Source Community SAFE CodeSprint: Pavia Italy. November 12-16, 2012
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Metro Manila and Can Tho: Getting the Balance Right Between ‘Structural and Non-structural Measures
Hard engineered• Flood conveyance• Flood storage• Urban drainage systems• Ground water management• Flood resilient building design• Flood defenses
Eco-system management• Utilizing wetlands• Creating environmental buffers
Increased preparedness• Awareness campaigns• Urban management
Flood avoidance• Land use planning• Resettlement
Emergency planning & management• Early warning systems and evacuation• Critical infrastructure
Speeding up recovery• Building back smarter• Risk insurance
Keeping the water away from the people
Keeping the people away from the water
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Components:• Protection to an appropriate return frequency,
determined by predictions using historical data and non-stationary analysis
• Adaptation to cope with extreme events that surpasses design criteria
• Retreat, which means restoring space for water to adapt to long-term climate changes.
Ho Chi Minh City Developing an Integrated Flood Risk Management StrategyUrban growth in the periphery of the city had as a result newly-urbanized districts arising in sites at flood risk. Hard engineering or structural measures to minimize flood risk might be unsustainable under large hydrological, land subsidence and urbanization uncertainties.
Ho
Long
Phi
Robust Decision Making (RDM) Helps Inform Good Decisions Without Reliable Predictions
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Robust Decision Making (RDM) Helps Inform Good Decisions Without Reliable Predictions
RDM follows “Deliberation with Analysis” decision support process
VulnerabilitiesRobust Strategy
3.Estimate Performance of Strategy in Many Futures
Case GenerationTradeoff Analysis
5.Display and Evaluate Tradeoffs Among Strateg(ies)
Deliberation
Analysis
Deliberation with Analysis
Participatory Scoping1.Define Goals, Uncertainties, and
Strategies2.Choose Candidate Strategy
Scenario Exploration and Discovery
4.Characterize Strategy’s Vulnerabilities
Key idea:• Start with strategy
• Use analytics to identify scenarios where strategy fail to meet its goals
• Use these scenarios to identify and evaluate responses
Source: Rob Lempert, RAND
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Factors Potentially Considered in Our Analysis
X: Exogenous uncertainties L: Policy levers
• Extreme precipitation (X mm/3 hrs)• Mean sea level• Subsidence rate• Infrastructure performance• Delays in implementing flood control plans• Rate and patterns of economic and
population growth• Effectiveness of policies• Costs of implementing policies
• System described in 2001 JICA Master Plan• Adaptation options include:
• Elevating buildings• Small scale pumps• Public awareness
• Retreat options include:• Restrictions/appropriate land use
• Adaptive decision strategies• Signposts• Responses
R: Relationships M: Measures of merit
• SWMM Model• ArcGIS for calculating RI and DI
• RI: Risk exposure (population/housing)• DI: Damage exposure (economic)
Source: Rob Lempert, RAND
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01020
3040506070
8090
100
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Probable Maximum Loss
Transfer
Retention
• Reserves/Calamity funds
• Contingent lines of credit• Loans (Standard or Emergency)• Budget reallocations
• Catastrophe Bonds• Parametric Insurance• Traditional insurance
Risk Layering: A Balance-Sheet Approach to Risk Finance
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3. Emerging Directions
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Emerging Directions1. Recognizing, measuring and responding to
complexity (CCN for networks?).2. Cognitive limitations, Communicating
uncertainty3. Beyond cost-benefit (fat tails), evidence based
DRM, Value-for-Money4. The economics (and politics!) of open data for
resilience.5. Decision-making in data-scarce environments,
Big data, Simulations, Serious Gaming
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Ultimately it boils down to….• INVESTMENTS: What concrete actions can we
take to build resilience into our program?• INSTRUMENTS: What instruments do we need
to support our clients to mainstream resilience ? (Data, metrics, analytical work etc.)
• INCENTIVES: Institutionally why is this not happening, even for events that we know that are bound to take place? (Changing incentives)
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EAP DRM KNOWLEDGE PRODUCTS
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Thank you!
Abhas K. Jha www.worldbank.org/eapdisasters@abhaskjha