Building Local Government Resilience through Scenario Planning in the Burnett Mary Region: OVERVIEW:...

7/25/2019 Building Local Government Resilience through Scenario Planning in the Burnett Mary Region: OVERVIEW: Climate Variability and Climate Change: Scenarios

1/20

This paper has been prepared by the University of the Sunshine Coast for the Burnett Mary Regional Group byClimate Change, Coasts and Catchments at USC Faculty of Science, Health and Education. November 2008

Building

Local Government Resilience

through Scenario Planning in

the Burnett Mary Region

OVERVIEW

Climate Variability

and Climate Change:

Scenarios and Projections


2/20

Climate Change, Coasts and CatchmentsFaculty of Science, Health and Education

University of the Sunshine Coast

Contact

Greg Laves

Tel: 07 5459 4679

Email: [email protected]

Climate Change, Coasts and Catchments Team

Associate Professor Peter Waterman, Professor Richard Warwick, Dr. Peter Urich, Dr. Neil Tindale, Greg Laves,Ashton Berry, Gary Duffy, Graham Ashford, Diana Clarke, Theresa Ashford Louise McDonell, Prue Pettett,

Gemma Wright and Amanda Tunbridge

November 2008

IMPORTANT NOTICE PLEASE READ

While reasonable efforts have been made to ensure that the contents of this publication are factually correct,neither the University of the Sunshine Coast nor the Burnett Mary Regional Group NRM Inc., accepts responsibility

for the accuracy or completeness of the contents, and shall not be liable for any loss or damage that may beoccasioned directly or indirectly through the use of, or reliance on, the contents of this publication.

Acknowledgements

Regional Water Supply Strategy is currently under development for the Wide Bay Burnett. A collaborative

partnership has been established between the Queensland Government, Local Governments, water serviceproviders, local industries, key stakeholders, and indigenous and community representatives to develop the strategy

with the Department of Natural Resources and Water (NRW) as the lead agency. A draft copy of the Strategyis anticipated for public release and comment in 2009. The Burnett Mary Regional Group and our partners the

University of the Sunshine Coast would like to acknowledge the contribution of NRW in the development of thisoverview document and the subsequent Working Papers series.


3/20

USC Faculty of Science, Health and Education | 1

Climatic Variability and Climate Change: Scenarios and Projections

In its Fourth Assessment Report, publishedin 2007, the IPCC concluded that:

Warming of the climate system isunequivocal, as is now evident fromobservations of increases in global averageair and ocean temperatures, widespreadmelting of snow and ice and rising globalaverage sea level. (IPCC 2007b).

Observational evidence from all continentsand most oceans shows that many

natural systems are being affected byregional climate changes, particularlytemperature increases. (IPCC 2007b).

The radiative forcing of the climatesystem is dominated by the long-livedgreenhouse gases (primarily carbon dioxide,methane and nitrous oxide) which haveincreased markedly as a result of humanactivities since 1750 and now far exceedpre-industrial values determined from icecores spanning many thousands of years.The atmospheric concentrations of CO2and CH4 in 2005 exceed by far the naturalrange over the last 650,000 years. Global

increases in CO2 concentrations are dueprimarily to fossil fuel use, with land-usechange providing another significant but

smaller contribution. (IPCC 2007b).

1.0 Introduction

PurposeThis overview was prepared as part of a suite of working papers entitled Building Local Government Resilience through ScenarioPlanning commissioned by the Burnett Mary Regional Group (BMRG) for Natural Resource Management Inc. The purpose of this

paper is to inform regional planning, local government, and regional stakeholders. This paper provides information on key findingsderived from: modelling climate change scenerios; and analysis of future climate conditions and their associated impacts on thenatural and human environment.

introduce new ones. Such knowledgewill support a proactive and anticipatoryapproach to land use, and infrastructure(planning and maintenance), livelihoodsand lifestyles, health and natural resourcemanagement to better the chancesof a successful adaptive response.

2.0 Global Warming

and Climate Change

Evidence of Global Climate

Change

In 1988, the World MeteorologicalOrganization and the United NationsEnvironment Programme establishedthe Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange (IPCC). In the two decades since itsinception, a massive international scientificeffort has been undertaken to answertwo fundamental questions: whethercurrent global climate variability is outside

of the Earths normal range, and if so,whether it is a result of human activities.

The accumulation of these gases to date,and their longevity in the atmosphere,means that we are already committedto an enhanced greenhouse effect formany decades to come even if all furtheremissions were stopped immediately.Given that global emissions currentlyexceed the high end of anticipatedtrajectories and show no signs of slowingdown, it is reasonable to conclude that

major climatic changes are inevitableand that adaptation to the impacts willbe necessary. This does not obviate theneed for immediate and meaningfulinternational mitigation efforts to reducethe severity of future consequences.

Global Climate Models

and Patterns of Change

Climate modelling has advancedconsiderably since the IPCC released itsFirst Assessment Report in 1990. Betterdata sets, superior computing power,

and evolving scientific knowledge ofthe interaction of atmospheric, oceanicand terrestrial systems have enablednewer models to simulate existingclimate conditions at a finer spatialresolution and with greater accuracythan earlier models. The accuracy ofregional modelling has also increased.Nonetheless, global climate modellingremains an extremely complex, costly andtime intensive exercise that is currentlyonly conducted by a handful of countriesthat possess the scientific knowledge

and financial resources. This makes itdifficult for researchers, planners andpolicy makers to obtain a wide range ofregionally relevant scenarios from differentgeneral circulation models (GCMs) thatconsider alternative emission scenarios.

Given the practical limitations of obtainingGCM output at a regional and localscale, an alternative approach has beendeveloped and is now in widespread use,including by CSIRO. The approach, knowas linked pattern scaling, uses the patternsof climate change produced by complexGCMs standardised to a one degree change

in global average surface temperature,then employs a simplified model tocalculate the change in global temperaturethat will result under alternative

The Burnett Mary Region

The Burnett Mary Region is situatedwithin a subtropical climatic zone,characterised by hot and moist summersand relatively dry and cool winters.Although most of the annual rainfalloccurs during the summer months, thereis considerable variability on the amount,timing and location of rainfall events.

Daily temperatures also exhibit variabilitywithin an overall seasonal pattern.

While the region has experiencedextreme weather events from timeto time, the overall climate has beenrelatively consistent and favourable tohuman settlement. The regions climatehas contributed to the evolution of arich and diverse natural environmentwith many unique qualities.

Since the region was first settled,extensive measures have been putinto place to cope with the impacts

of climate variability on agriculture,infrastructure, water resources, humanhealth and livelihoods. This expandingadaptive capacity has enabled the regionto enjoy considerable developmentand population growth and seen asustained rise in the standard of livingfor residents for many generations.Indeed, the Burnett Mary is one of thefastest growing regions in Queensland.

Recently, evidence of progressive andirreversible changes to the regions climatehas become apparent. These changes

are likely to be far reaching and, whencombined with population growth andother development pressures, will pushmany human and natural systems beyondtheir existing coping range, resulting in ahost of negative consequences. The mostsignificant impacts to human and naturalsystems will be related to increasedincidences of extreme events such asflooding, drought, high temperatures, heatwaves, and severe storms, rather thangradual changes in average temperature.

The amplified potential for harmhighlights the importance of

investigating: the effects of climaticvariability; the potential extent of climaticchange in the region; and how it mayexacerbate existing vulnerabilities or


4/20

2| USC Faculty of Science, Health and Education


emissions scenarios. This produces apattern of change for each 125km2cell, which is then used to scale up or

down the actual baseline temperatureand precipitation data for each locationwithin that cell. The approach isone of the most scientifically robustmethods of producing local estimatesof climate change, and is embodied inthe SimCLIM software program used todevelop the scenarios for this paper1.

Presently, there are more than two dozenscientifically credible GCMs in use aroundthe world. Given the extreme complexityof simulating all of the atmospheric,terrestrial and oceanic interactions, themodels produce somewhat different

patterns of change depending on thevariables that are included and thespecifications of their interactions. Themodels selected to produce the scenariosin this paper were chosen for their abilityto accurately simulate current conditionsfor Australia, including temperature,precipitation and regional events suchas the El Nio Southern Oscillation2.

Emission Scenarios

Because projections of climate changedepend heavily upon future human

activity, climate models must makeassumptions about how the future ofglobal emissions of greenhouse gases willunfold over the rest of the century. TheIPCC has developed an elaborate set ofemissions scenariosinternally consistentand plausible descriptions of a possiblefuture state of the worlds greenhouse gasemissions. These are depicted in Figure 1.The scenarios for this research paper useA1B as a mid-range emissions scenarioand A1FI as a high emission scenario.

Most of the scenarios constructed in

this paper are for the year 2050, as itprovides a useful interim time period overwhich impacts can be clearly identifiedand adaptive strategies evaluated. Insome cases, scenarios for 2030 and 2100are also generated where informative.

FIGURE 1

IPCC SRES Emission Scenarios

The A1FI and A1B emission scenariosemerge from the A1 storyline of afuture characterised by very rapideconomic growth, global population thatpeaks in the mid-century and declinesthereafter, and the rapid introductionof new and more efficient technologies.Underlying this storyline are themes ofconvergence among regions, capacitybuilding and increased cultural andsocial interactions, with a substantialreduction in regional differences inper capita income (IPCC 2000).

Carbon Cycle and

Climate Sensitivity

Climate sensitivity refers to theequilibrium change in global meansurface temperature following adoubling of the atmospheric (equivalent)CO2 concentration. The IPCC FourthAssessment Report indicates that thevalue is likely to be in the range 2 to4.5C with a best estimate of about 3C.Uncertainty arises because, in additionto the radiative forcing generated byGreenhouse Gases (GHGs) , there are also

system feedbacks including a water vapourfeedback, an ice-albedo feedback, a cloudfeedback, and a lapse rate feedback.

Unless otherwise stated, the scenariosproduced in this paper use the bestestimate value from the Third AssessmentReport of approximately 2.5C.

Climatic Changes in the

Burnett Mary Region

Since 1950

Changes that have been observed acrossQueensland and within the BurnettMary Region over the last 60 years areconsistent with global predictions ofclimate change (rising temperatures;changes in the timing, location,frequency and intensity of precipitation;and rising sea level) and are indicativeof expected future changes.

Temperature

Over this period annual averagetemperatures have increased in the

Burnett Mary Region by 0.25C perdecade, a faster rate then the Nationalaverage. Minimum temperaturesincreased at a greater rate thenmaximum temperatures during theperiod (Office of Climate Change 2007).

Precipitation

Although parts of the north-west regionof Australia saw more rain, much ofcentral Queensland experienced asignificant drying trend, including theBurnett Mary Region which experienced

a decrease of 30-50mm per decade.A greater proportion of total rainfall nowfalls in extreme events (Office of ClimateChange 2007).

Maximum temperatures

Observations indicate an increasingnumber of days each year in whichthe temperature exceeds 35C.This trend is more pronounced overinland areas than coastal locations(Office of Climate Change 2007).

CyclonesAvailable data suggest that the totalnumber of tropical cyclones mayhave decreased although the numberof severe cyclones has increased(Office of Climate Change 2007).

1SimCLIM is the outcome of ten years of collaborative

research at the International Global Change Institute

at the University of Waikato in New Zealand. It is

in widespread use around the world. CSIRO uses

a variant of the SimClim software developed forAustralia called OzCLIM.

2Models were selected based on their M-Skill score,a measure of their ability to simulate current climate

conditions and phenomena.


5/20



The images in the last row illustratethe percentage change from the WorldMeteorological baseline conditionsgiven as 1961-1990 to the projectionat 2050. The images indicate that therate of warming will be greater forinland locations than coastal locations.

Figure 2 illustrates the projected changesin average temperature on a seasonalbasis with the actual baseline (averageof 1961-1990) in the top row, theprojection for 2050 in the middle rowand the percentage change from baseline

3.0 Projections of Climate Change

FIGURE 2 Mean temperature by season. The baseline is an average of 19611990 actual observations

Percent change from baseline HADGEM A1B Year: 2050

Projected mean temperature HADGEM A1B Year: 2050

BASELINE

Dec, Jan, Feb Mar, Apr, May Jun, Jul, Aug Sep, Oct, Nov



in the bottom row. Across the entireregion the average seasonal temperaturechange is smallest during the fall seasonfrom March to May, and largest in thewinter season from June to August. Thechanges are summarized in Table 1.



6/20



Maximum Average Temperature

Average maximum temperature is defined as the average of the highest tenpercent of values for the time period, in this case the summer months ofDecember, January and February.

TABLE 1

Seasonal Average Temperature Change from Baseline Conditions in the Burnett

Mary Region

SEASONAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (HADGEM model A1B emissions)

Average temp Dec, Jan, Feb Mar, Apr, May Jun, Jul, Aug Sep, Oct, Nov

1961-1990 23.68 19.25 12.60 18.97

2050 25.13 20.69 14.25 20.54

Change in C 1.45 1.44 1.65 1.57

Baseline Dec, Jan, Feb HadCM3 A1B Year: 2050 HadCM3 A1B Year: 2100

FIGURE 3

Maximum Average Temperature in SummerDec, Jan, Feb

Under the A1B emissions scenario, average maximum temperatures in theregion will rise by approximately 2C by 2050 and 4C by 2100. The fact thattemperature increases will continue at the same rate from 2050 to 2100 eventhough emissions are declining through that period illustrates the longevity

of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and the considerable amount oftime it take for the system to reach a new steady state equilibrium.

Frequency of extreme high temperature events

The following section examines maximum temperatures in two specific locations,Bundaberg and Gayndah. These two locations were selected since they have goodobservational temperature and precipitation data for more than one hundredyears. As well they are representative of coastal and inland locations.

Figure 4 plots the return period for maximum summer (DecFeb) temperaturesin Gayndah over the period 1961-1990. For example, the blue square on theplot represents 42C. Based on historical data (10950 observations from 1961-1990), a maximum temperature of 42C was quite a rare event, occurring onaverage only about once in twenty five years. The table in Figure 5 illustrates

how extreme events are likely to become more frequent with climate change.

FIGURE 4

Gayndah Post Office Extreme

Temperature Return Periods



7/20



The graphs in figure 5 illustrate theprojected change in the total annualnumber of days in which the temperatureis 35C or hotter. As the charts convey,

the number of very warm days thatare projected to occur each year growssignificantly. This is likely to occur both aslonger heat and more frequent heat waves,

and will have considerable implications forhuman health in vulnerable populations,agricultural productivity, energy and wateruse, evaporation, and ecosystem health.

TABLE 2

Gayndah Likely Occurrence of Extreme Temperatures

Gayndah

Scenario Return period for days over 42C event

19611990 baseline Once every 25.18 years

2050 Once every 5.98 years

2100 Once every 2.33 years

Gayndah

Scenario Return period for days under 0C event (freezing)

19611990 baseline Once every 1.58 years on average

2050 Once every 2.97 years on average


TABLE 3

Bundaberg Likely Occurrence of Extreme Temperatures

Bundaberg

Scenario Return period for days over 38C event




Bundaberg

Scenario Return period for days under 0C event (freezing)




Table 2 illustrates the likely occurrence ofextreme temperatures for Gayndah for theyear 2050 using CSIROs Mk2 GCM patternand assuming an A1B emission scenario.

Table 3 illustrates the likely occurrenceof extreme temperatures for Bundaberg.

Gayndah

Annual number of days above 35CBundaberg

Annual number of days above 35C

FIGURE 5

Projected Changes in days hotter than 35C


8/20



Projections of Precipitation Change

Figure 6 illustrates theprojected patterns ofchange in seasonal

precipitation usingfour different GCMpatterns but the sameA1B emission scenario.This demonstrates thedifferences in projectionsamong global climatemodels. Such differencesare especially apparentfor precipitationwhich is modelledwith less confidencethan temperature.

The four models generallyproject an overall dryingtrend although theCSIRO Mk2 projects anincrease in precipitationin the autumn, whilethe MPIECH-5 modelpredicts a wetterwinter and spring.

BASELINE HADGEM CSIRO Mk2 MPIECH-5 MRI232-ADec, Jan, Feb

BASELINE HADGEM CSIRO Mk2 MPIECH-5 MRI232-AMar, Apr, May

BASELINE HADGEM CSIRO Mk2 MPIECH-5 MRI232-AJun, Jul, Aug

BASELINE HADGEM CSIRO Mk2 MPIECH-5 MRI232-ASep, Oct, Nov


FIGURE 6

Projections of precipitation in 2050 from four Global Climate Models using A1B emissions


9/20



Bundaberg Maryborough

Gayndah Monto

Gympie Kingaroy


BASELINE HADGEM CSIRO Mk2 MPIECH-5 MRI232-A

FIGURE 7 Projections of annual average precipitation for 2050

Precipitation projections were produced for six geographically representative townships in the Burnett Mary region: Bundaberg,Maryborough and Gympie and the three inland townships of Monto, Gayndah and Kingaroy. These are illustrated in Figure 8.

FIGURE 8Projections of annual average precipitation for selected regional population centres(HADGEM model, A1B emissions)


10/20



TABLE 4 Summary of precipitation changes from 1990 to 2100

FIGURE9 Projected sea level change

Location Sea Level Rise(cm) Projections(HadCM3model A1B emissions)

1990 2050 2100Hervey Bay baseline 17.4cm 41.3cm

FIGURE 10 Hervey Bay Sea Level Rise Longitude 153 0 0 E Latitude 25 0 0 S


Annual Average Precipitation (mm) Projections (HADGEM model A1B emissions)

Location 1990 2030 2050 2070 2100 Total decrease

Bundaberg 1070 1001 941 880 829 241mm (-23%)

Maryborough 1148 1055 973 894 822 326mm (-28%)

Gympie 1186 1072 972 876 788 398mm (-34%)

Kingaroy 791 713 644 578 517 274mm (-35%)

Gayndah 725 667 617 568 523 202mm (-28%)

Monto 702 659 618 580 546 156mm (-22%)

Projected Change in

Evaporation

It is expected that further rises intemperature from global warming willbe associated with increased evaporationand decreased soil moisture. This wouldexacerbate the consequences of a dryingtrend (PIR 2007, CSIRO 2001 and Karolyet al 2003). Decreased soil moisture willlead to an increased risk of crop failureand demand for water. Furthermore, thecombination of the increased occurrenceof drought and lower soil moisturewill make farmers more vulnerable tosoil erosion, salinity and nutrient loss.

Increased evaporation will increase thewater demand of farmers, amplifyingcompetition between different water users.

Research suggests that increasedevaporation rates will occur throughoutall seasons, with a 0 - 10% increase by2030 and a 0 - 32% increase by 2070(CANA 2008). Projections made forQueensland indicate that annual potentialevaporation will increase by up to 13%by 2030, and up to 40% by 2070 overlarge areas of the state (EPA 2007).

Increased evaporation levels also reduces

the amount of surface water runoff andtherefore water available for streamflows. Reduced stream flows will greatlyimpact upon river and estuarine systems,ecosystem functions and native biodiversity.

Evapotranspiration is the combined loss ofwater from the soil surface and throughthe transpiration of plants (Hare, 2008).Increased temperatures will increasethe amount of water lost from plantsthrough transpiration, thereby increasingthe demand for soil moisture. This willhave severe consequences for croppingand ecosystems in a climate with lessrainfall and lower soil moisture levels.

HadCM3 pattern of global sea level riseIncreased global temperatures cause sea level to rise by two mechanisms: thermalexpansion and mass exchange from melting glaciers and ice sheets. Figure 9, which showsthe Hadley CM3 model projections for global sea level rise, illustrates that the patternof change will not be uniform across the world primarily due to thermal expansion. Thismodel also indicates that sea levels along the coast of the Burnett Mary Region will behigher than the global average. By 2050 local sea levels may be between 18 cm and 30cmhigher than today, while rises of between 41cm and 80cm may be anticipated by 2100.Changes of this magnitude may have significant implications for coastal erosion and theimpacts from storm surge. These are discussed further in Section 4.

Sea level rise for HerveyBay may be higher thanthe global average due

to thermal expansion.


11/20



FIGURE 11 Components of vulnerability


4.0 Vulnerability,

Impacts and Adaptation

Adapting to climate change will presentconsiderable challenges given the extent ofprojected changes and the dependence ofcurrent human and natural systems to historicclimate patterns. One useful way forward isto consider how natural and human systemshave coped with climate variability in thepast. This can shed light on vulnerabilitiesrelated to current climate variability, includingthresholds beyond which adaptive measuresare extremely difficult to put in place and longterm harm occurs. Climate change adaptation,then becomes a risk reduction strategy tominimize the incremental risks associated

with the additional variability that is projectedunder climate change.

It is important to consider adaptation as aprocess that is iterative and responsive tochanging conditions. This implies the needto monitor ongoing environmental changeand to evaluate the effectiveness of adaptiveresponses. Policy and legislative structuresneed to provide the means to build adaptationand monitoring into the planning process, andcapacity for action has to be built at all levelsthrough broadly targeted public education andspecific training for key decision makers.

Vulnerability to Climate Change

Vulnerability can be defined as the degreeto which a system is susceptible to, orunable to cope with, adverse effects ofclimate change (IPCCb 2001). As seen inthe Figure 11, vulnerability is a functionof exposure, sensitivity and adaptivecapacity and can be experienced on aregional, community, household andindividual level (Spickett et al. 2008).

In the context of climate change, exposurerefers to being either directly or indirectly

impacted, for example, a farm situated inan area that will experience reduced rainfalland increased temperatures. Sensitivitywould be a measure of the crops abilityto withstand these changes in climaticconditions (Spickett et al., 2008).

Adaptive capacity describes the ability toadjust to any potential impacts. Using theprevious farm example, adaptive capacitymay be the ability of the farmer to irrigate orotherwise maintain productivity of existingcrops or to replace existing crops with thosemore tolerant of dry and hot conditions.The success of these measures to mitigatethe potential impacts would ultimatelydetermine the level of vulnerability.

Source: Australian Greenhouse Office, 2005

Examples of Sectoral

Vulnerability

Human Health

While coastal areas of the BurnettMary Region remain wetter thanwestern parts of the region, projecteddecreases in precipitation would have

significant consequences for bothhuman and natural environmentsand raise the possibilty that availablewater may be insufficient to maintaincurrent populations, practicesand environmental services.

Temperatures of 35C and abovefor prolonged periods could leadto an increase in mortality, illnessand heat related stress within thecommunity and in particular withthe elderly, very young and the ill.

It is also reasonable to expect an

increase in the occurrence of vectorand water-borne diseases, such asmalaria and Ross River fever, underhigher temperatures (CANA 2002).Asthma and hayfever related illnesswill also likely increase due to drierand dustier conditions (CANA 2002).

Infrastructure

Impacts on Infrastructure from climatechange may be gradual resultingin additional maintenance andreplacement costs, or be catastrophic

from extreme events such as cyclones.The significant areas for risk are the

coastal nodes where roads, urban andperi urban areas are experiencing thecompounding factors of populationgrowth and climate change impacts.In particular, Boonooroo Plains andSusan River are projected to havebetween 40 to 52% increase incadastre affected by storm surge by2070, while Craignish may have up to

90% increase of road length affectedby storm surge in the same timeframe. Industrial areas in Bundabergare also at a higher risk due to stormsurge. Risk scenarios such as these canhelp focus planning responses towardsdeveloping adaptation strategies.

Water

The recent rapid population growthexperienced in many of Queenslandscoastal settlements combined withprolonged drought, has exposed the

limitations and vulnerability of thecurrent water supply system. Formany regional areas these pressureshave led to extreme water shortagesand the rationing of supply. Watersupplies in the Burnett Mary willcontinue to come under pressurewith substantial population growthprojected for the region. The abilityto meet the increasing demand in thedomestic, commercial and industrialsectors may be hindered by decreasingrainfall, reduced surface runoffand higher levels of evaporation.

Exposure

Potential Impact

Sensitivity

Vulnerability

Adaptive Capacity


12/20



Coastal Regions

Higher atmospheric temperatures willresult in warmer ocean surface water

temperatures. This will lead to highersea levels and also has the potential toincrease the severity of tropical cyclones.

Higher sea level also adds to the sizeof storm surges and will expose moreland area to the impacts of stormsurges increasing shoreline erosion.

Bushfires

Higher temperatures and reducedrainfall and humidity could increase thefrequency and severity of bushfires inthe Burnett Mary Region, particularly

if the incidence of consecutive hotdays increases (Cribbes 2007).

Projections indicate that the number ofdays over 35C per year will significantlyincrease by the year 2100. This couldincrease the likelihood of bushfiresoccurring by increasing the period oftime that a bushfire could start. Theoccurrence of dry lightning stormsis also highly probable due to thesignificant decrease in precipitation andtherefore moisture in the landscape.This papers future climate projections

would indicate Kingaroy, Gayndah andMonto are particularly vulnerable tobushfires due to the significant increasesin temperature and reductions inprecipitation seen in these areas. Otherareas such as Mundubbera, Mt Perryand Eidsvold will also be at high risk.

Agriculture

Agriculture is an important sectordomestically and globally that is likelyto be affected directly and indirectlyby climate change (Gunasekera et al.

2007). Although increased levels of CO2in the atmosphere will have a positivefertilization effect on many types ofplants, this will be more than offset by thenegative impacts of higher temperaturesand reduced water availability.

Decreased precipitation and highertemperatures will negatively impactproduction within the agriculturalindustry and will create significantshifts in land-use and crop type (DCC2008). Production types in areas that arecurrently marginal, due to low rainfalllevels, will become especially vulnerableto reductions in precipitation into thefuture. Inland adaptive measures toreduce vulnerability to climate change

could include better farm managementpractices, diversification of crop varieties,shifting cropping seasons and improved

farming technologies (Heyhoe et al. 2007).Due to over-extraction of groundwater,saltwater intrusion has occurred and isa major concern in much of the lowerBurnett and in areas adjacent to the Elliottand Burnett Rivers (QUT 2008). A decreasein precipitation may increase the use ofgroundwater for irrigation and exacerbatethe saltwater intrusion problem.

Agricultural areas in the Mary Rivercatchment receive higher precipitationthan those in the Burnett Rivercatchment, which are more dependant

on irrigation. Industries that dependon irrigation to remain viable willbe vulnerable to decreased wateravailability in this part of the region.

Although the relationship betweenincreased temperatures and increasedevaporation is relatively simple, theimpacts of the relationship can have farreaching and both direct and indirectconsequences. Increased nutrient loadsare often associated with increasedevaporation and decreased rainfall. Excessnutrient coupled with less streamflowand possibly more stream bank erosion,are contributing factors to catchmentdegradation. Increased nutrient loadsoften occur as farmers increase theirfertiliser use beyond existing levels tocompensate for decreasing soil nutrientavailability due to less precipitation andmore evaporation. Raising the awarenessof farmers as to this potential impactof climate change may be required.

Support will be needed to assist producersto reduce vulnerability and to plan forsustainable agriculture practices usingapplied climate change knowledge.

The climate change adaptation processwill be vital to the success of theagricultural industry in future years.

Forestry

The Burnett Mary Region is the largestproducer of plantation forestry productsin Queensland. The long term growingperiods associated with forestryexposes the industry to a higher levelof risk than other crops due to theuncertainties of future climate changeand variability. A better understanding

of the implications of global warmingfor plantation distribution in generaland tree species in particular, will

support investment strategies and helpstrengthen the integrity of the emergingcarbon based forestry industry. Modelling

undertaken for this project indicates thatconsiderable shifts in rainfall patternsand temperatures may occur under somescenarios which could have seriousplanning and investment implications.Proactive planning for forestry should looktowards identifying areas with reducedrisk to climate change and consider waterdemands of new and current farm forestswithin the context of projected decreasesin supply.

Impacts on Biodiversity

Terrestrial BiodiversityTerrestrial biodiversity is highly vulnerableto increases in temperature and reductionsin precipitation. It is predicted to causeterrestrial animals to migrate from theircurrent habitats to cooler and moisterareas (CANA 2006). A trend towardsthe south-east of the region would bepredicted by the scenarios in this paper.

It is anticipated, however, thatnot all animals and plants will beable to migrate successfully due togeographical or human-made barriers,

unfavourable environmental parameters,competition, rate of fecundity, slowdispersal mechanisms and soil type(IPCC 2001). This could result in theextinction of some species, especiallythose that are already threatened.

Species that are currently consideredthreatened are at a high risk of becominglocally extinct due to the increasedpressures placed on them by climatechange (WWF 2008). It is also expectedthat many species that are not currentlythreatened, are at risk of becomingso. Declines in local populations ofimportant native species may create idealconditions for pest plants and animalintrusion, applying further pressure toalready stressed native populations.

Many of the reasons why terrestrialbiodiversity is so vulnerable to climatechange result from the breakdown ofinterdependent relationships betweenspecies. For instance, increasedtemperature and decreased precipitationcan lead to a change in the amount oftrees flowering in a season. For instance,fewer flowers mean less insects feeding

on the flowers and less birds feeding onthe insects and so on. Its also thoughtthat some weed species could benefit



13/20



Reef building corals are found incoastal waters adjacent to the BurnettMary Region and play an important

role in ensuring the continued survivalof the reef and creating habitats formany marine species. These coralsare vulnerable to many pressures thatinfluence their survival and distributionincluding increased temperatureand sedimentation (AIMS 2007).

The success of marine turtle eggincubation and the selection ofgender type is highly dependenton the temperature of the sand, inwhich the optimal temperature rangeis between 25-33C (Hamann et al.2007). In this way, future generations

of marine turtles are highly vulnerableto increases in temperature.

Coastal and marine biodiversity isvulnerable to reductions in environmentalflows due to the relationship betweenfreshwater flushes, salinity levels andnutrient availability. Maintainingthe long-term average amount offreshwater flowing into estuaries andother coastal waters is importantfor delivering nutrients and also inmaintaining lower salinity levels.

Waterways are vulnerable to aquaticweeds, particularly Water Hyacinth,Salvinia and Cabomba, which are

already causing major problems in theregion. Increased temperatures andlower levels of water flow in streamsdue to reduced rainfall may benefitsome exotic species, altering speciescomposition in favour of weed species.

Coastal and Marine Biodiversity

Table 5 is a matrix of marine biota andtheir associated vulnerability ratings,developed using the EPBC Act ProtectedMatters Search Tool (DEWHA 2004) andthe IUCN Red List (2007). In a reportprepared for the BMRG, Kirkwood

and Hooper (2004) found that whilemost coastal and marine species arevulnerable to anthropogenic pressures,such as development, fishing anddredging, they are also susceptible toclimate change through habitat changeor loss. Due to the combined effectsof coastal erosion, sea-level rise andtemperature increase, the rate of speciesmortality will become much higher.

from climate change, out-competingendemic species and therefore furtherdecreasing biodiversity (Low 2007).

Also, an increase in the duration andseverity of the bushfire season due toa decrease in moisture and an increasein temperature will likely have asignificant impact on levels of biodiversitywithin our forests (AGO 2007).

Aquatic Biodiversity andHealthy Waterways

Further decreases in precipitation in theBurnett Mary Region over the next centurywill only exacerbate the current problemsfaced in managing aquatic biodiversity. In

this way aquatic environments are highlyvulnerable to decreases in precipitationand increases in temperature (EPA 2008).Even greater expense and attentionto planning and management will benecessary to repair and mitigate thedeterioration of our rivers and streamsin a future impacted by climate change.To achieve optimal environmentalflows in the future with less availablewater, is an area of high priority.

Water quality in the Mary Catchment, forinstance, is impacted by contaminantsfrom land clearing, urban areas, mining,agriculture, grazing and forestry. Indicatorsof deteriorating water quality that may becompounded by climate change include:

decline in fish species including theendangered Mary River Cod andLungfish;

reductions in benthic macroinvertebrates (eg. aquatic worms,snails, beetles and bugs);

increased occurrences of bluegreen algae;

recorded levels of heavy metals

eg. arsenic, cyanide, aluminium andselenium, which far exceed nationalwater quality standards;

presence of high nutrient levels andincreasing salinity levels in localisedgroundwater, aquifers and watertables;

weakening of a stream bufferingcapacity (EPA 2001); and

reduced environmental flows as aresult of decreased rainfall and over-allocation.

TABLE 5A matrix of marine biota commonly found in the BurnettMary region and their vulnerability status

Species Type Common Name Vulnerability

Fish Green Sawfish Endangered

Black Rock Cod Vulnerable

Sharks Grey Nurse Critically Endangered

Whale Shark* Vulnerable

Great White VulnerableColcloughs Blind Shark Vulnerable

Reptiles Loggerhead Turtle Endangered

Green Turtle* Vulnerable

Leatherback Turtle Vulnerable

Birds Southern-Giant Petrel Endangered

Northern Giant Petrel Vulnerable

Kerndec Petrel Vulnerable

Campbell Albatross Vulnerable

Mammals Indo-pacific Humpbacked Dolphin Threatened

Dugong VulnerableHumpback Whale Vulnerable

* Populations are likely to occur within the area or are migratory


14/20


Climatic Variability and Climate Change: Scenarios and ProjectionsClimatic Variability and Climate Change: Scenarios and Projections

5.0 Conclusions

Climate change poses a significant problem to both human

and natural systems. Existing vulnerabilities that arise fromclimate variability will be exacerbated as a result of changingclimatic conditions and additional demographic pressures. Theimposition of both of these stressors will create considerablepressures on our ecosystem and our livelihoods. As this reportand the accompanying working papers illustrate, the impactswill be far reaching. Higher temperatures, prolonged periodsof intense heat, increased evaporation rates, coastal erosionand inundation, and changes in the timing, location, frequencyand volume of precipitation will put additional pressures onalready stressed systems. Agriculture, forestry, biodiversity,conservation values, water management strategies, populationhealth and well being, infrastructure, tourism, and manyother aspects of the region will be negatively impacted.

Climate change is an exigent and complex problemthat is, itis both complicated and dynamic. Our global track record atmanaging such problems is not encouraging. Around the worldbiodiversity has been decimated and natural systems degraded.National and international governance regimes to manage theglobal endowment of ecosystems and natural resources arefrequently weakened by short term interests at the expense oflong term sustainability. It would be myopic indeed, to allowimmediate action to be subverted by the inertia of the statusquo when the consequences of inaction grow exponentially.

Addressing the challenge of climate change requires theimplementation of effective mitigation measures from globalto local scales. However, due to historic and current emissions

trajectories, significant further change is unavoidable.As such, a process of proactive and anticipatory adaptivemeasures will be required. This should begin by identifyingexisting vulnerabilities and then putting in place measuresto minimize the incremental risks that will occur as a resultof climate change. Policies need to be rigid enough toprovide a signal that will encourage appropriate adaptation,while remaining flexible enough to respond to changingcircumstances and take advantage of emerging innovation.The necessary response is not a shopping list of actions, butrather a long term process of monitoring environmental andhuman system changes, and building capacity to implementappropriate adaptation measures across our entire society.


15/20




AGO (2007), The effects of climate change on bushfire in areas

managed for biodiversity, Adaptation Projects, AustralianGreenhouse Office, viewed 28/08/2008, http://www.burdekindrytropics.org.au/bio/bdt_biodiversity/downloads/project_bushfire_web.pdf

AGO (2005), Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability, Departmentof Environment and Heritage, Australian Greenhouse Office,Australia.

AIMS (2007), Threats to coral reefs,Australian Institute of MarineScience, Australian Government, viewed on 28/08/2008, http://www.aims.gov.au/docs/research/biodiversity-ecology/threats/threats.html

Burnett Mary Regional Group, Country to Coasta healthysustainable future,Action Program Fact Sheet : Water Resources,http://www.bmrg.org.au

CANA (2002), The health benefits of mitigating global warming inAustralia,Climate Action Network Australia , Ultimo, NSW

CANA (2006), The problems that climate change causes forwildlife, Climate Action Network Australia, Ultimo, NSW, viewedon 29/08/2008, http://www.cana.net.au/bush/problems.htm

CANA (2006), Water for Farmers, Climate Change and Waterin Australia, Climate Action Network Australia, viewed on28/08/2008, http://www.cana.net.au/water/farmers/index.html

CANA (2008), Changes in rainfall and water systems, ClimateChange and Water in Australia,Climate Action Network Australia,

viewed on 20/10/2008, http://www.cana.net.au/water/changes/Cribbes, J. 2007, Global warming: What effect might it have uponbushfires?, viewed 8/12/07, http://www.sciencealert.com.au/opinions/20072510-16496.html

CSIRO 2007, Climate Change in Australia,Australian Government,viewed 29/12/2007, http://www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au/index.php

CSIRO (2001), Climate change projections for Australia, AustralianGovernment, viewed on 20/10/08, http://www.cmar.csiro.au/e-print/open/projections2001.pdf

Department of Climate Change (DCC) 2008,AustraliasAgricultureImpacts of Climate Change, Australian Government,

viewed 12/12/2007, http://www.climatechange.gov.au/impacts/agriculture.html

DEWHA (2004), Protected Matters Search Tool, Department of theEnvironment, Water, Heritage and the Arts, viewed 11/12/2007,http://www.environment.gov.au/cgi-bin/erin/ert/ert_dispatch.pl?loc_type=coordinate&search=Search&report=epbc

EPA (2008), Climate change impacts and adaptation,Environmental Protection Agency, Queensland Government,viewed on 28/08/2008, http://www.epa.qld.gov.au/

EPA (2007), Climate change projections, Environmental ProtectionAgency, Queensland Government, viewed on 20/10/2008, http://www.climatechange.qld.gov.au/about/projections.html

References

EPA (2001), Mary Riverwater quality condition and trends,

Queensland Waterways, Environmental Protection Agency,Queensland Government, viewed on 28/08/2008, http://www.epa.qld.gov.au/publications/p00352aa.pdf/Mary_River_water_quality_condition_and_trends.pdf

Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act,Protected Matters Report 2007,viewed 8/12/07 http://www.environment.gov.au/erin/ert/epbc/imap/map.html

Environmental Pollution Control Center, Osaka Pretecture 2007,What Results from Global Warming?viewed 8/12/07 at: http://www.epcc.pref.osaka.jp/apec/eng/earth/global_warming/dounaru.html

Gunasekera, D., Kim, Y., Tulloh, C., Ford, M., 2007, Climate ChangeImpacts on Australian Agriculture, ABARE, viewed 25/07/2008,http://sites.lwa.gov.au/ccrspi/sites/lwa.gov.au.ccrspi/files/ABAREDecQuarterClimateChange.pdf

Hamann, M., Limpus, C., & Read, M., 2007, Chapter 15Vulnerability of marine reptiles in the Great Barrier Reef toclimate change. In Climate Change and the Great Barrier Reef,eds. Johnson JE and Marshall PA. Great Barrier Reef Marine ParkAuthority and Australian Greenhouse Office, Australia.

Hare, J., 2008, Using evapotranspiration to estimate wateruse, DPI&F and Cotton Catchment Communities CRC, viewedon 20/10/2008, http://www.dpi.qld.gov.au/eps/rde/xchg/dpi/hs.xs/26_9829_ENA_HTML.htm

Harper, B., Granger, K., Jones, T., Stehle, J., & Lacey, R., 2001,Chapter 4 Tropical Cyclone Risks. In Natural Hazards and the risksthey pose to South-East Queensland, (eds), Granger K and HayneM. Australian Geological Survey Organisation and Bureau ofMeteorology, Australia.

Heyhoe, E., Kim, Y., Kokic, P., Levantis, C., Ahammad, H., Schneider,K., Crimp, S., Flood, N. and Carter, J., 2007, Adapting to ClimateChange, Australian Commodities, vol. 14, No. 1, March quarter, pp.16778.

IPCC (2007a) Summary for Policy Makers: The Physical ScientificBasis. Contribution of Working Group 1 to the Fourth AssessmentReport of the IPCC.

IPCC (2007b) Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Fourth

Assessment Report, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Synthesis Report Summary for Policy Makers: The PhysicalScientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group 1 to the FourthAssessment Report of the IPCC.

IPCC (2001)Climate Change 2001Impacts, Adaptationand Vulnerability. The First Assessment Report of theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

IPCC (2000), Summary for Policy Makers: Emission Scenarios,Special Report of IPCC Working Group III, Intergovernmental Panelon Climate Change.

International Union for Conservation of Nature and NaturalResources 2007, Red List of Threatened Species,viewed

13/12/2007, http://www.iucnredlist.org/


16/20


Climatic Variability and Climate Change: Scenarios and ProjectionsClimatic Variability and Climate Change: Scenarios and Projections

Kirkwood. J,. and Hooper, J., 2004, Burnett Mary RegionalAssessment: Coastal and Marine Biodiversity, viewed 28/12/2007,http://www.bmrg.org.au/downloads/General_Reports/

BMRGCoastalMarineBiod30Jul04.pdfLow, T., 2007, Climate Change and Brisbane Biodiversity: A Critiqueof the Climate Change and Energy Taskforce Final Report, BrisbaneCity Council.

Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research,2008, viewed on 19/6/2008, http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/hadleycentre/

Nakicenovic, N. et al (2000), Special Report on EmissionsScenarios: A Special Report of Working Group III of theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge UniversityPress, Cambridge, U.K., 599 pp. Available online at: http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc/emission/index.htm

PIR (2007), A guide to climate change and adaptation inagriculture in South Australia, Primary Industries and Resources,South Australia,viewed on 20/10/2008, http://www.pir.sa.gov.au/pirsa/nrm/a_guide_to_climate_change_and_adaption_in_agriculture_in_south_australia/chapter_three

QDNRW 2007, ClimateSmart Adaptation 200712: Anaction plan for managing the impacts of climate change,Queensland Department of Natural Resources and Water.

QUT (2008), Saltwater intrusion modelling in the BundabergRegion,Queensland University of Technology, viewed on28/08/2008, http://www.its.qut.edu.au/hpc/projects/archive/qpsf/bundaberg/background.jsp

Spickett, J., Brown, H., Katscherian, D., 2008, Health impactsof climate change: Adaptation strategies for WesternAustralia, Environmental Health Directorate, Departmentof Health, West Australian Government, viewed on20/10/2008, http://www.health.wa.gov.au/envirohealth/planning/docs/Health_Impacts_of_Climate_Change.pdf

Stern, N., 2006, Stern Review Report on the Economics of ClimateChange,viewed on the 25/08/2008, http://www.hm.treasury.gov.uk/independent_reviews/stern_review_economics_climate_change/stern_review

Urich, P., Warrick, R., Ye, W. and Brightwell, G. 2007, CLIMsystems,

viewed on 23/01/08, http://www.climsystems.com/pluto/

Warrick, R.A., 2006, Climate Change Impacts andAdaptation in the Pacific: Recent Breakthroughs in Conceptand Practice, in Chapman, R., Boston, J. and Schwass,M. (eds) Confronting Climate Change: Critical Issues forNew Zealand. Wellington, Victoria University Press

WWF (2008), Australias threatened species face extinctiondue to climate change,World Wide Fund for Nature, viewedob 28/08/2008, http://www.wwf.org.au/news/species-face-extinction-due-to-climate-change/


17/20


Notes


18/20

Notes


19/20


Notes


20/20

The Burnett Mary Region

Building Local Government Resilience through Scenario Planning in the Burnett Mary Region: OVERVIEW:...

Documents

Transcript of Building Local Government Resilience through Scenario Planning in the Burnett Mary Region: OVERVIEW:...