Building for the Middle - Housing Greater Boston's Workforce - Release event

Building for the MiddleHousing Greater Boston’s Workforce

Tim Reardon, Director of Data Services

Metropolitan Area Planning Council

September 22, 2016

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

Nu

mb

er

of

Ho

use

ho

lds

Working Households (at least one wage earner)

by Income and Income Category;

Metro Boston, 2014

High Income (>120% AMI)

Upper Middle Income (100% - 120% AMI)

Lower Middle Income (80% - 100% AMI)

Low Income (50% - 80% AMI)

Very L ow Income (30% - 50% AMI)

Extremely Low Income (<30% AMI)

What do we mean by “Middle Income”?

Data Sources: U.S. Census Public Use Microdata Sample 2010-14

Middle Income:

$50K - $120K,

depending on

household size

What share of working households are

“Middle Income”?

6%

8%

11%

16%

10%

49%

30% Extremely Low Income

50% Very Low Income

80% Low Income

100% Lower Middle

120% Upper Middle

Above 120%

Data Sources: U.S. Census Public Use Microdata Sample 2010-14

26% of Working

Households are

Middle Income

25% of Working

Households are

Low Income

What are the biggest Middle Income jobs?

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

1Working Households

by Occupation of Principal Earner

Legal

Healthcare Support

Physical Science

Personal Care

Social Service

Food Prep

Arts, Media etc.

Protective Services

Architecture/ Engineering

Maintenance

Finance

Repair/ Maintenance

Business Operations

Tech

Production

Transportation

Construction

Education

Healthcare Practitioners

Sales

Management

Office/ Admin

Percent of Middle

Income Working

Households

Principal Earner

2%

6%

34%

Police & Fire

Education &

Training

Office/Admin,

Management,

Sales

+89,400

-7,300

+151,400

(20,000)

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

Working Households by Income Category

Metro Boston, 1990 - 2014

Low Income Middle Income High Income

The Incredible Shrinking Middle Class

Data Sources: U.S. Census Public Use Microdata Sample 1990 and 2010-14

Metro Boston added 233,000 working households

from 1990 – 2014

The number of middle

income working households

declined by 2.2%

High- and low-income

working households grew by

40% and 33%

The middle income share

dropped from 37% to 26%

25 years of wage polarization


-100,000-80,000 -60,000 -40,000 -20,000 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000

Healthcare Practitioners and Technical

Management, Business, Science, and Arts

Education, Training, and Library

Computer and Mathematical

Community and Social Services

Life, Physical, and Social Science

Legal

Protective Service

Personal Care and Service

Food Preparation and Serving

Transportation and Material Moving

Production

Construction and Extraction

Sales and Related

Building and Grounds Maintenance

Healthcare Support

Office and Administrative Support

Farming, Fishing, and Forestry

Architecture and Engineering

Business Operations Specialists

Installation, Maintenance, and Repair

Occupational Group Change by Household Income Category;

Metro Boston, 1990 to 2014

Extremely Low-Income Very Low-Income Low-Income Lower Middle-Income Upper Middle-Income High-Income

Decline in “core” middle income occupations

Low-income growth, middle income decline

Disproportionate low-income growth

Disproportionate high-income growth

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Extremely Low-

Income

Very Low-Income Low-Income Lower Middle-

Income

Upper Middle-

Income

High-Income

Change in Housing Cost Burden by Income GroupMetro Boston, 1990 to 2014

Cost Burdened 2014

Cost Burdened 1990

Housing Costs Put the Squeeze On


Homeowner Cost Burden on the Rise

18%

45%

20%

47%

29%

43%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

1990 2010 - 2014

Middle Income Homeowner

Housing Cost Burden by location,


Boston Inner Ring Rest of Metro Boston

Uneven Affordability

Data Sources: The Warren Group, US Department of Housing and Economic Development, MAPC Analysis

Only 22% of single-family homes

and 39% of condominiums are

affordable to a typical middle

income household.

Regional Urban Centers have the

highest number and share of units

affordable to the middle.

Dozens of suburban municipalities

have only a handful of for-sale or

rental opportunities for middle-

income households.

Projected New Worker Households

42,000

54,400

62,500

71,600

44,200

219,900

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

Projected New Worker Households


High-Income

Upper Middle-Income

Lower Middle-Income

Low-Income

Very Low-Income

Extremely Low-Income


Over 800,000+ new workers needed by 2030 to fill vacancies left by

retiring Baby Boomers.

These workers will likely form 492,000

new working households.

Aging Boomers may put 291,000

housing units back on the market by

2030.

23,400 38,700

111,700

17,8009,800

10,500

11,900 14,000

36,500

105,100

53,000

60,900

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

Low-Income Middle-Income High-Income

Projected Workforce Housing Demand


Multifamily

Rent

Multifamily

Own

Single Family

Rent

Single Family

Own

A wide range of “Workforce” housing needs

Projected supply gap,

after accounting for turnover

108,000

units

21,000

units

73,000

units

Conclusions

Over 200,000 additional units – at a range

of income levels - needed by 2030 to serve

future working households

Local interventions needed across the

region to open up opportunities and

attract middle income households

Rapidly growing low-income housing needs

are a symptom of broader economic

inequality & require non-housing solutions

Tim Reardon, Director of Data Services

Metropolitan Area Planning Council

[email protected]

data.mapc.org

mailto:[email protected]

Building for the Middle - Housing Greater Boston's Workforce - Release event

Data & Analytics

Transcript of Building for the Middle - Housing Greater Boston's Workforce - Release event