Building Cities That Work: Lessons from East

AsiaAbhas Jha

World urban population 3.9 billion today

5 billion by 2030 Adding another India

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3

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6.3 billion by 2050And another China

Storyline: Challenges and opportunities of urbanization/ the need for cities to work in order to benefit their growing populations

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Cities present both challenges and opportunities. To harness their potential for growth and prosperity, cities need to work.

Storyline: Challenges and opportunities of urbanization/ the need for cities to work in order to benefit their growing populations

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• Adopt a Long-Term, Integrated Planning Approach

• Ensure Planning is Evidence-Based• Capitalize on Scale• Harness Density• Explore Innovative Financing Solutions• Enable Land Markets to Function

Effectively

Overview

Adopt a Long-Term, Integrated Planning Approach

SINGAPORE: PLANNING APPROACHSingapore: Urban Planning Approach

• Many cities are unable to translate plans to implementation• Use of land use planning and urban design to shape neighborhoods

and respond to needs

Singapore land area = 719 km

Singapore’s use of detailed planning to shape mixed-used district character along riverfront

Source: Urban Redevelopment Authority, Singapore (2015).

Shape vibrant district level neighborhoods and facilitate development needs

Singapore: Urban Planning Approach

Integrated Land Use and Transport Planning

8 in 10 households

living within a 10 minute

walk from a train station

75% of all

journeys in peak hours undertaken

on public transport

85% of public transport

journeys (less than 20 km) completed within 60 minutesLeft: Copenhagen’s “Finger Plan”

established infrastructure along desired growth corridors (Sustainable Cities Collective); Above and Right: Singapore’s integrated infrastructure and land use planning (Alain Bertaud) is driven by clear performance targets (Land Transport Authority’s Land Transport Master Plan)

Ensure Planning is Evidence-Based

Singapore: ePlanner

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Pop Base Pop +100%

People/km2

Transit Network

TOD around Metro Station

(Job + 100%, Pop + 100%)

Bike Facilities

Job Accessib

ility

Line 123 only No No 12%

Line 123 + Bus Yes Yes 46%

Line 123456 + Bus

No No 32%

Line 123456 + Bus

Yes Yes 51%

Source: The 3V Framework (World Bank)

Measuring Job Accessibility

Indonesia: City Planning Labs

• First successful slum-typology classification at city scale

• Spatially Representative Slum Survey: nuancing urban poverty

• Better design for city wide slum upgrading

Philippines: Slum Mapping

Beijing: Green Horizons

• Collaboration between IBM and Beijing

• Uses Internet of Things and cognitive computing to improve air quality management and forecasting.

• Enables authorities to better plan long-term interventions to tackle air pollution

Capitalize on Scale

Metropolitan areas continue to power national economic growth• In 2014, 60% of metro areas outperformed in

employment creation • 1/3 of world’s 300 largest metro economies

outpaced in GDP per capita and employment growth rates

Metropolitan Regions: Economic Powerhouses

USA: Economic Mega-Regions

49 MRs created 57% of national GDP, home to just 32% of population. 95% of China’s population growth from 2000-2010 occurred in these MRs.

China: Metropolitan Regions

*Figures as at 2010; Source: Chreod 2013

The Yangtze River Economic Belt accounts for 20% of China’s GDP and is responsible for one-third of its imports and exports.

The Manila urban area in the Philippines includes 85 municipalities and cities in seven provinces.

Manila: Urban Expansion

India: Peripheral Industrial Growth

• Growth of economic activities highest in suburban villages

• Pace of growth in high-tech and export-oriented manufacturing is fastest in peripheries of large metropolises

Source: Economic Census 2005 and 1998

The city continuously transforms itself to higher value added sectors by implementing proactive reform policy, and enhancing governance capabilities

Source: Porter, Neo and Ketels (2013). Remaking Singapore. Havard Business School 9-710-483.

Transport &

Logistics

Electronics

Assembly

Petro-chemicals

Finance

IT Headquarters

Business Services

Pharmaceuticals

Aerospace

Industrial Evolution

Assets and

Changing Condition

s

1958-1985Becoming an Asian Tiger

• British base/ strategic location

• Entrepôt • Lose labor market rules• FDI attraction: let foreign

firms co-invest into joint ventures to limit risks

• Fiscal policy: under-valued currency to boost exports

• Wages increase/ 1985 depression

• Key public investments to decrease costs of living for residents

• Increased productivity through skills development and investments in infrastructure

• Nurture a knowledge system to become a global education hub

• Invest in research and development

• Invest in quality of life (garden city, casino, etc.)

1985-1990Recession and Reform

1991-2010Singapore Maturing

time

Singapore: Economic Evolution (1950 – 2010)

Most firms in Silicon Valley can be traced back by this powerful ecosystem and network, with Fairchild (founded by ‘the traitorous eight’) in the center

Source: Endeavor

Silicon Valley: Ecosystem Growth

Harness Density

Urban planners often justify keeping low FARs citing lack adequate infrastructure – where additional density will exacerbate infrastructure shortfalls.

However, people will move closer to economic opportunities

Planners can make this process less traumatic by accommodating density and related infrastructure

Or they can be rigid – exacerbating housing affordability, and connectivity to jobs.

• In the context of rapid movement of people into cities, redevelopment becomes important

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India: Density Challenges

Shanghai exhibits relatively low urban densities away from the inner core, as compared to Seoul—matching Seoul’s density

pattern would enable Shanghai to accommodate millions more residents

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25,000

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Built up area (km2)

Dens

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nhab

/km

2)

Shanghai: Urban Sprawl and Declining Densities

Shanghai Seoul

Density vs. Liveability

Taming Density

Clockwise from Left: High-rise buildings in the Central Business District are interspersed with low-rise conservation shophouses (CLC, Singapore); Green spaces mitigate against density in public housing towns (SG Asia City.com); Singapore’s green cover has increased by almost one third between 1986 and 2007 (NParks, Singapore).

Transit-Oriented Development (TOD)

Left: Hudson Yards, New York; Tanjong Pagar Mass Rapid Transit Station, Singapore; High-density developments around Curitiba’s BRT line.

TOD: Density Around Mass Transit

Mumbai Current FSIDraft plans to revise FSI and zones based

on transport corridors• Rational, integrated, more

granular and contextual plans

• Higher densities complemented with open space, conserved heritage, greenery

• Responsive to short teem needs, implementable, enforceable

• Safeguard long term goals

• InclusiveSources: Left: World Bank (2013); Right: Municipal Corporation of Greater Mumbai (2015).

Making density, land use and unlock development potential through granular planning

India: Unlocking Development Potential

Explore Innovative Financing Solutions

$4.5 trillion/yearneeded to fill urban infrastructure financing gap

$125 billionODA is only a small part of the solution

Cities are generating, receiving, and spending very small fractions of what is needed.

Tokyo: Land Value Capture

Above: Tokyo Station in the early 20th century (tokyostationhotel.jp); Below: the Marunouchi area today (shinjukustation.com)

Plan for Tokyo Station area, showing high-rise, mixed-use developments maximizing density around the railway and subway lines (JR East).

Bangkok: BTS Skytrain PPP

Clockwise from Left: Bangkok’s Mass Transit System (Wikipedia); The elevated BTS provides commuters with an alternative to street-level traffic (dreamtime.com); Siam station connects the Silom and Sukhumvit BTS Lines in downtown Bangkok (Bangkok.com).

Transit-Oriented Development in Curtiba, showing high-density uses concentrated along the transit corridor

Sao Paolo: Payment for Density Bonus

Enable Land Markets to Function Effectively

Dysfunctional land markets affect delivery of public services and infrastructure

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0%

5%

10%

15%

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25%

30%

35%

40%

Share of urban land allocated to streets

Source: UN HABITAT, “The relevance of street patterns and public space in urban areas,” Working Paper (April 2013)

• Publicly-owned land, if effectively used, can help to generate local revenues

• In India, Mumbai Port Trust holds 809 hectares of land in a prime location.

• Only 52% of land is used for port operations. • Remainder is vacant, abandoned, or leased out at

outdated, below-market rates• Trust’s land operations are inefficient

• 200ha alone has an estimated value of US$25billion. If land were managed for its economic value, it could help to finance much-needed infrastructure in MumbaiSource: Peterson and Thawakar (2013)

India: Mumbai Port Trust

Land Sharing to Resolve Conflicts and Create Inclusive Cities• Accommodate commercial development

on land occupied by slum dwellers, without evicting existing occupants who have the right to remain on site.

• Bangkok in 1970s/80s: Slum dwellers in “battle for living space” with developers

• 7 successful land sharing schemes re-housed almost 10,000 low-income families on the same sites they were occupying

• Key shared characteristics: • Original settlements largely on public land; • Arrangements mediated by local and international

housing professionals, civil society org’s and public authorities (e.g. National Housing Authority of Thailand);

• Self-financing of a portion of new land and housing costs through loans

Source: Angel & Boonyabancha (1988)

Bangkok: Land Sharing Scheme

Tanzania: Local Government Revenue Collection Information System

• 7 Tanzanian cities rolled-out an innovative Local Government Revenue Collection Information System (LGRCIS), an electronic and Geographic Information System (GIS) based tool which supports collection from multiple revenue sources.

• The system now allows proper identification of tax payers, defaulters, invoicing, bill generation and facilitated online payment through a single gateway.

• 30% average increase in own-source revenues.

Key Messages

Some planning is better than none; implementation is as, if not more, important than good plans.

Cities are expanding to form metropolitan regions. To harness the growth potential of these areas, more holistic, strategic planning and governance structures are needed.

Density need not be feared. If planned in tandem with infrastructure and mass transit, and “tamed” with good urban design, high-density urban areas are efficient and liveable.

Innovative municipal financing can fund urban development, but institutions (including land markets) must create an enabling environment.

Thank you

@abhaskjha.