Looking  for  a  bridge  between  

approaches  

A  bridge  for  what?  

Global  knowledge  

Local  knowledge  

Local  knowledge  

HOW  IS  THE  CURRENT  BRIDGE?  

Tacit  Knowledge  

Structured  InformaHon  

Global  knowledge  

Global  knowledge  

Local  knowledge  

HOW  IS  THE  CURRENT  BRIDGE?  

Disintegrated  policies    

Structured  InformaHon   Organized  

knowledge  

Tacit  Knowledge  

Global  knowledge  

Local  knowledge  

Why  is  this  so?  

Disintegrated  policies    

Structured  InformaHon   Organized  

knowledge  

Tacit  Knowledge  

Global  knowledge  

Local  knowledge  

Why  is  this  so?  

Disintegrated  policies    

Structured  InformaHon   Organized  

knowledge  

Policy  Modeling  

DEEP   SHALLOW  

Formalizing  Dynamics   Formalizing  

Associa1ons  

Mainstream  Policy  Science  

Tacit  Knowledge  

•  System  of  Variables  (dependent  –  independent)  •  Linear  relaHon  • Hierarchical  organizaHon  • Homogeneity  assumpHons  •  Scare  of  Ecological  Fallacy  

Policy  Modeling  

DEEP   SHALLOW  

Formalizing  Dynamics   Formalizing  

Associa1ons  

Global  knowledge  

Local  knowledge  

Why  is  this  so?  

Disintegrated  policies    

Structured  InformaHon   Organized  

knowledge  

Tacit  Knowledge  

•  Networks  of  Actors  •  Feedback  relaHons  •  Emergent  organizaHon  •  Heterogeneity  of  behavior  

Mainstream  Policy  Science  

•  System  of  Variables  (dependent  –  independent)  •  Linear  relaHon  • Hierarchical  organizaHon  • Homogeneity  assumpHons  •  Scare  of  Ecological  Fallacy  

But…

 

Policy  Modeling  

DEEP   SHALLOW  

Formalizing  Dynamics   Formalizing  

Associa1ons  

Global  knowledge  

Local  knowledge  

Can  we  reconcile  this?  

Disintegrated  policies    

Structured  InformaHon   Organized  

knowledge  

Tacit  Knowledge  

•  Networks  of  Actors  •  Feedback  relaHons  •  Emergent  organizaHon  •  Heterogeneity  of  behavior  

Mainstream  Policy  Science  

•  System  of  Variables  (dependent  –  independent)  •  Linear  relaHon  • Hierarchical  organizaHon  • Homogeneity  assumpHons  •  Scare  of  Ecological  Fallacy  

But…

 

Policy  Modeling  

Global  knowledge  

Local  knowledge  

Can  we  reconcile  this?  

Organized  knowledge  

Tacit  Knowledge  

•  Networks  of  Actors  •  Feedback  relaHons  •  Emergent  organizaHon  •  Heterogeneity  of  behavior  

DEEP  

Formalizing  Dynamics  

Policy  Modeling  

Global  knowledge  

Local  knowledge  

A  computaHonal  

bridge!  

Organized  knowledge  

Tacit  Knowledge  

•  Networks  of  Actors  •  Feedback  relaHons  •  Emergent  organizaHon  •  Heterogeneity  of  behavior  

DEEP  

Formalizing  Dynamics  

AGENT-­‐BASED  MODELING  

Learning  and  adapta,on  

Rules  Path-­‐dependence  

Localized  

BASIC  IDEA:  

Learning  and  adapta,on  

Organized  knowledge  

Tacit  Knowledge  

•  Networks  of  Actors  •  Feedback  relaHons  •  Emergent  organizaHon  •  Heterogeneity  of  behavior  

Formalizing  Dynamics  

AGENT-­‐BASED  MODELING  

Path-­‐dependence  

Rules  

Localized  We  program  agents.  

•  PercepHon  •  Knowledge  •  Response  

•  RaHonally-­‐bounded  

BASIC  IDEA:  

Learning  and  adapta,on  

Organized  knowledge  

Tacit  Knowledge  

•  Networks  of  Actors  •  Feedback  relaHons  •  Emergent  organizaHon  •  Heterogeneity  of  behavior  

Formalizing  Dynamics  

AGENT-­‐BASED  MODELING  

Path-­‐dependence  

Rules  

Localized  

We  can  have  mulHple  agents  

BASIC  IDEA:  

Learning  and  adapta,on  

Organized  knowledge  

Tacit  Knowledge  

•  Networks  of  Actors  •  Feedback  relaHons  •  Emergent  organizaHon  •  Heterogeneity  of  behavior  

Formalizing  Dynamics  

AGENT-­‐BASED  MODELING  

Path-­‐dependence  

Rules  

Localized  

We  can  have  mulHple  agents  

MULTIPLE  LEVELS  

MULTIPLE  INTERACTIONS  

BASIC  IDEA:  

Learning  and  adapta,on  

Organized  knowledge  

Tacit  Knowledge  

•  Networks  of  Actors  •  Feedback  relaHons  •  Emergent  organizaHon  •  Heterogeneity  of  behavior  

Formalizing  Dynamics  

AGENT-­‐BASED  MODELING  

Path-­‐dependence  

Rules  

Localized  

We  can  have  mulHple  agents  

MULTIPLE  LEVELS  

MULTIPLE  INTERACTIONS  

TRAJECTORIES  AND  SCALES  

GREAT  APPROACH…  but  challenging  

PROGRA

MMING  

?  

COMPU

TING  ?  

?  

INTERE

ST  

ABS

TRACT

ION  

?  

DECOMPO

SABILITY

 

COMPU

TABILITY

 

DECIDABILITY  

VALIDITY  

Hands  on!  

hYp://climatechangejm.blogspot.com/  

PLEASE,  GO  TO:  

DISCUSSION  

•  Human  Agency  (Hassan,  2009;  Crate  &  Nutall,  2009)  

•  History  and  Heterogeneity  maYer  (Rosen,  2003)  

•  Scale  (Strauss  &  Orlove,2003;  Rosen,  2003)  

•  Individual  PercepHon  and  Strategic  responses  (Rosen,2003)  

•  Tractability  of  climate  change  (Rayner,2003;  Hassan,  2009)  

•  JusHce  (Crate  &  Nutall,  2009)  

How  do  you  think  ABM  could  face  these  issues?  

CLOSING  COMMENTS  How  can  a  simulaHon  ever  tell  us  anything  that  we  do  not  already  know?  

1.  A  simulaHon  is  no  beYer  than  the  assumpHons  built  into  it.  2.  A  computer  can  do  only  what  it  is  programmed  to  do.  

HOLDING  THAT:  

ASSUMPTIONS   ASSUMPTIONS  Correct  Premises   Correct  Premises  

Correct  Reasoning   Correct  Reasoning  

SPACE  OF  DERIVED  POSSIBILITIES  ?  

CLOSING  COMMENTS  How  can  a  simulaHon  ever  tell  us  anything  that  we  do  not  already  know?  

1.  A  simulaHon  is  no  beYer  than  the  assumpHons  built  into  it.  2.  A  computer  can  do  only  what  it  is  programmed  to  do.  

HOLDING  THAT:  

Minimal  properHes  

Relevant  relaHonships  

Sufficient  Concepts  

MODELING  THE  POORLY  UNDERSTOOD  

Minimal  properHes  

Relevant  relaHonships  

Sufficient  Concepts