Building a Future of Quality A Happy People, A Happy City of Ilorin RAPID.

Building a Future of Quality

A Happy People, A Happy City of Ilorin

RAPID

Urbanization in Nigeria

Ilorin Population Dynamics

Population and Development: The Crucial Links

What Can We Do?

Urbanization in Nigeria

Photo by Ryan Paetzold

4World Population Prospects 2009

Nigeria Urban/Rural Population

Urban Population

Rural Population

After 2010, Nigeria became more urban than rural

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Nigeria has a Vision for Urban Development

The National Urban Development Policy calls for:

Providing adequate shelter for all Poverty reduction and economic empowerment Ensuring environmental sustainability Good governance and development

“The Urbanization process is irreversible in Nigeria and musttherefore be turned into opportunities for growth” Permanent Secretary, Federal Ministry of Housing and Urban Development, Nigeria 2005 presentation

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One of the key challenges in policy implementation of the urbanization plan is the rapid growth in the population of cities.

This creates a situation where the government is unable to:- Maintain and expand infrastructure- Provide adequate, high quality social services- Create an environment that is conducive to economic development

Photo by Bonnie NURHI

However, there are challenges with policy implementation which is resulting in poor quality of life for city residents, especially among the urban poor.

Ilorin’s Population Dynamics


Let’s Focus on 5 Urban Areas

Ilorin East Ilorin South Ilorin West Irepodun Offa

Current Situation of Ilorin

NURHI/MLE Baseline Report 2010

1.1 million total population of the 5 LGAsOn average, each woman has more than 4 children 27% of married women use a modern method of family planning

Almost 400 maternal deaths per year

Ilorin Population Structure2011 Population of Ilorin, projected using the 2006 census

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FemaleMale

42% of population is under age 15

Ilorin has a young population

There are more people in the non-working ages (younger than 15 yrs and those 65 yrs and over) than people in the working ages (15-64 yrs)

Photo by lisago

Population & Development

RAPID: Computer Programs for Examining the Socioeconomic Impacts of Population Growth

Population and Economic Development are LinkedA much larger working age population compared to the population in young dependent ages was a key factor in the Asian development miracle. As families became smaller, dependency declined even

more.

Greater emphasis on population quality than quantity meant increased investments by the state

More and better educational opportunities emerged

Greater productivity

Investment in modern agriculture

Photo by Shiraz Chakera

Contributed to improved quality of life and escalated economic development

A key component to the success of Asian tigers: investment in family planning


Improved access and increased use of modern contraceptives

Increased investments in family planning programs and services

Asian tigers

14NURHI/MLE Baseline Report 2010 and DHS Surveys

Modern Contraceptive UsePercentage of Women using Modern Contraceptives

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Couples in Ilorin want to Plan their Births


Only 1 in 5 married women want a child in the next 2 years

Only 1 in 6 married men want a child in the next 2 years

20% of married men and women do not want any additional children

More than half of married women say it would be a “big problem” if they were to become pregnant in the next few weeks

Scenario 2: Investment in Family Planning: What will happen if there is an investment in family planning and unmet need is met?

Ilorin has an opportunity to improve the quality of life of its population

2 Potential Futures:

Scenario 1: Maintain Current Trends: What if things continued as they are now?

Ilorin Abuja FCT Ibadan Kaduna

NURHI aims to increase modern family planning use by

20 percentage points in each city by providing high quality services that couples can access.


Nigerian Urban Reproductive Health Initiative (NURHI) is a Project that is Supporting Quality Family Planning in 4 Nigerian Cities:

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Population Projection ScenariosProjected Total Populations in 5 Ilorin LGAs

Ilorin NURHI Projection

Ilorin Base Projection

Health Education Infrastructure EconomyPhoto by Bonnie NURHI Photo by Bonnie NURHI

Photo by Bonnie NURHIPhoto by The Gates Foundation

Nigeria National Policy on Population for Sustainable Development : January 2004

“All stakeholders need to appreciate the linkages of population factors with broader development issues like housing, education, health, agriculture, energy, environment, gender concerns, food security and the security of life and property.”

Health


Nigeria Millennium Development Goals: Report 2010

“The key challenges to reducing infant mortality include population, declining resources and wide geographic variations.”

Major challenges to reducing maternal mortality include “a dearth of skilled personnel and a shortage of family planning facilities”.

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Family Planning Reduces Risky BirthsFamily Planning Acts by Reducing Births in the Following Categories, Called the 4 Too’s:

Too young: women who give birth before age 18

Too old: women who give birth after age 35

Too many: more than 5 births

Too close: births spaced less than 24 months

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Year Ilorin base Projection


2011 64 64

2015 63 53

2035 57 47

Risky BirthsPercentage of births with any risk factor

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Number of Maternal Deaths Averted

2,530 Maternal Deaths Averted 2011–2035

363Ilorin NURHI Projection


228

Mat

erna

l D

eath

s Av

erte

d

2011

–201

5

26

Under 5 Deaths Averted

6,775

37,767 Under 5 Averted 2011–2035

4,873



2,92

0 U

nder

5

Dea

ths

Aver

ted

201

1–20

15

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Year Ilorin Base Projection


2011 75 75

2015 73 50

2035 60 38

Infant Mortality Rate

Infant Deaths Averted:1,867 between 2011-201518,133 between 2011-2035

Health Benefits of Investing in Family Planning


Reduction in the number of maternal, infant, and child deaths

Increase life expectancy

Freed resources that can be invested in strategies to improve quality and access to essential health services

Reduction in the strain on health staff and infrastructure

Education

Photo by The Gates Foundation

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Primary School Aged ChildrenChildren aged 6–11 years old



31Teacher/Student Ratio of 30:1

Primary Teachers RequiredWHO standard of 1 teacher to 25 pupils



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Ilorin needs to increase the number of teachers that are qualified.

National Bureau of Statistics: Social Statistics in Nigeria 2009

Quality of Primary Teachers

National Universal Basic Education Act

Current policy goes beyond universal primary education and has set a

target of universal basic education.

National Universal Basic Education Act

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Basic Education Aged ChildrenPrimary and Junior Secondary (Ages 6–15)



Education Benefits of Investing in Family Planning


Reduction in the strain on teachers and infrastructure

Freed up resources that can be invested in strategies to improve the quality of education and prepare the next generation to participate in the global economy

Assist in meeting the goal of universal basic education

Infrastructure


37Average Household Size from MLE Baseline 2011

Housing RequirementsAverage household size of 3.8 people



38Source: Babayemi et al., 2009

Solid Waste GenerationAnnual Production of Waste (in kilograms)



Photos by: Bonnie NURHI

Infrastructure Benefits of Investing in Family Planning


Reduction in the strain on housing requirements

Likely reduction in the percentage of people living in slums or other forms of temporary housing

Reduction in the amount of trash that is generated which will improve the sanitation condition of the city

Economy


41MLE Baseline Survey 2011

Number of New Jobs Needed for People Entering the Workforce



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Number of Child Dependents



Economic Benefits of Investing in Family Planning


Reduction in the strain on employment requirements

Likely reduction in the percentage of people in the working ages that are unemployed

Reduction in the number of dependents which will assist families in moving out of poverty

What Can We Do?

Photos by: Mike Blyth (left), others by Bonnie NURHI

• We should help ensure that Ilorin’s women and men have access to high quality family planning services.

• We should support them in achieving their own family planning decisions.


Men and women in Ilorin cities want to plan their births

Policy ResponseImproving access and utilization of high quality family planning services will:

Thereby support Ilorin in reaching the MDGs and becoming a flourishing and prosperous city.

Enable couples to space their children …

Reduce the number of maternal and child deaths …


Release of the funds that have been obligated for family planning

Ensure that the released funds are used for family planning services

Speak out, and encourage other leaders to speak out, about the important role of family planning in preventing maternal and child deathsIt will take the voices of leaders from all sectors to illustrate the importance of preventing these deaths

What Needs to be Done Right Now?

From thisdaylive.com 18th November 2011

“Family Planning is something I support because we need to space our children, support safe motherhood and we need to take care of our children.”

Nigeria’s Minister of HealthNovember 2011


Building a Future of Quality A Happy People, A Happy City of Ilorin RAPID.

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