Budget Outlook

BudgetOutlook

Glen Crawford

P5 Meeting

Sep 24 2007

24 Sep 2007 HEP Budget FY08 Update for P5 2

DOE FY2008 Budget + Outyears

FY2008 brief review Outyears Inputs for P5

Revised DOE out-year budget scenarios Revised facility ops out-year projections Revised new project profiles (actual+ my guesses)


FY2008: Status HEP FY 2008 Request is 4% above FY 2007 Appropriation

($782M vs $751M) House mark at President’s Request Senate mark at President’s Request +7M Both have interesting language on JDEM

Expect Continuing Resolution…for how long?

Out-year projections ambiguous (more on this later)


HEP Long-term Trend20 yr. HEP Funding in FY08 Dollars (w/OMB Inflators)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

90 95 00 05 08*

Fiscal Year

Fu

nd

ing

($10

0M)

Operating Equipment Construction/AIP, GPP

*President's Request


HEP program in FY 2008

Overall HEP priorities in FY 2008: Tevatron and B-factory supported to run

Last year of B-factory Ops LHC support (Ops and Computing) up 9% as data

taking begins Core research program at the universities (+3%)

and laboratories (+2%) maintained New initiatives for the future of HEP (see next slide)


Initiatives in FY08

Initiatives for the future of HEP: ILC R&D ($42M $60M)

SCRF infrastructure development continues More new neutrino experiments

Main Injector Neutrino Exp’t v-A (MINERvA) Tokai-to-Kamioka near detector (T2K)

Stage III Dark Energy experiment (DES) Investment in long-term accelerator R&D

increased +$5M


HEP Trends FY2008

Growth continues in R&D and new initiatives Addresses highest priority future facility (ILC) as

well as long-term R&D (accelerator science) Also targeted at high-impact physics areas in the

nearer term that have relatively well-defined “roadmaps”: Neutrinos Dark Energy

The challenge is that HEP budgets only growing at approximately cost-of-living…hard to grow new efforts


Revised Input for P5 Advice inconsistent with likely budget scenarios does not help

But boundary conditions have changed, particularly ILC We would also like to know priorities independent of budget

Out-year overall budget envelope has changed since last time Was: Growing at few to several % per year Now: ??

Facilities Operations envelopes : Now have better idea of B-factory ramp-down trajectory (at

least 1st phase). FY2010 Tevatron running?

Project profiles Revised profiles: actual plans for actual projects; my guesses

for others. Did not iterate with NSF. New proposals beginning to surface


Suggested out-year scenarios$ in Millions FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11

HEP Budget out-years, FY07 Pres Req 740 717 775 785 810 890 975

Alternative HEP out-years (~FY08 Req) 740 717 751 782 837 895 957

Actual 740 717 751 782

“Alternative” assumes 7% annual increase (a la ACI), see following slide


Outyear HEP Profile DOE HEP FY2007 out-year profile is a component of an Office of

Science proposal developed with FY2007 Pres. Req. and sent to Congress March 2006 Grows 1-3% (9-10%) per yr in 2008-9 (2010-11) Actual bottoms-up integration of projects

FY2008 “profile” is nominal 7% per yr pro rata Compromise forced by lack of agreement between OMB and

Congress on outyear planning Mechanical increase of each SC program by fixed rate Because it is based on FY08 Req., integral funding is less than in

comparable FY07 exercise.


Facilities Ramp-down Profiles

These are our rough estimates We concur with FNAL estimates of ~$25M (M&S only) incremental

to run Collider for one year. Assume:

LCLS covers most of SLAC linac ops (2008+). HEP Ops staff at SLAC transition to other activities.

FNAL operations for NuMI will continue thru NOvA (2018?)

Est. annual savings in $M Year 1 Year 2 Year 3Tevatron 30 20 10

$215M $185M $165M $155M

B-factory 35 35 5

$90M $55M $20M $15M


Project Profiles : Caveats

All numbers are rounded, “planning level”, per experiment (may want >1)

Start and end dates flexible; does not include operations

Unless otherwise noted these are NOT actual project profiles

All $ in Millions and could include contributions from both US funding agencies


Nominal Project Profiles I

“Small” projects (Total Project Cost [TPC] <$50M)

Project Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5Nominal

TPC

DES (CD-1) 1 6 9 7 2 25

Daya Bay (CD-1) 1 5 9 11 8 34

Small Dark Matter Expt 8 10 7 25

g-29 11 7 -- 27


Nominal Project Profiles II “Medium” projects ($400M>TPC>$50M):

Project Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6

TPC

($M)

Ground-based DE Telescope 20 50 60 50 20 -- 200

Large DM Expt 10 20 40 20 10 -- 100

Double Beta Decay Expt 10 20 40 20 10 -- 100

NOvA (CD-2) 8 36 65 73 46 32 260

LHC Detector Upgrades 10 40 80 70 50 20 270

Next Gen Nu Expt 20 30 50 30 20 -- 150

DUSEL Phase I 40 70 90 70 30 -- 300


Nominal Project Profiles III Large new facilities ($1B > TPC > $400M)

ProjectYear

1Year

2Year

3 Year 4 Year

5Year

6 TPC

Space-based Dark Energy Telescope 20 30 70 90 100 70 400

Megaton-scale Nu Detector 40 90 110 120 110 30 500

ILC Pre-construction R&D (US share) 30 60 75 90 105 120 540

ILC US site studies + industrialization 0 10 30 75 95 150 390


Nominal Project Profiles IV Ultra-scale new facilities (TPC > $1B)

ProjectYear

1Year

2Year

3Year

4 Year

5Year

6Out-Year TPC

ILC construction (US Share, FY07$) 225 435 695 760 780 705 1675 5275

Neutrino Factory TBD

Muon Collider TBD


What’s Not Included

“Super” NuMI Upgrade (0.71.2MW) Needs revised profile from lab. TPC $50-100M?

LHC Accelerator Upgrade Needs definition of what it is (CERN) Needs definition of US scope

Project X No cost estimate yet


Summary Budget outlook (FY08+) is uncertain

May clear up in 6 months…or not So are boundary conditions

ILC is the elephant in the room Does that change priorities?

Particularly, if ILC is delayed or stretched out P5 advice will be most useful in

Determining optimal balance of existing research program vs. future opportunities

What are the budget implications of different physics scenarios?

Budget Outlook

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