bSURE TimbangTara Manual_R8

8/7/2019 bSURE TimbangTara Manual_R8

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Y Gamble if U Can bSURE?

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bSURE TimbangTara Manual_R8 of 38 © Copyright Reserved 2007

bSure Solutions Sdn Bhd

USER MANUAL: bSURE STRATEGIC

DECISION SUPPORT AND GAP

ANALYSIS TOOL

By Razali Husain, Masters in Business Administration (W. Sydney, Australia), BScElectronic and Computer Engineering (Birmingham, UK)




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TABLES OF CONTENTS 1 Introduction to Decision Support System.......................................................3

2 Why AHP?.....................................................................................................3

3 Basic steps ....................................................................................................4 4 bSURE Strategic Decision Support Tool – TIMBANGTARA..........................4 4.1 Accessing the Menu............................................................................................ 5

4.2 Defining goal ...................................................................................................... 7

4.3 Treeview ............................................................................................................. 7

4.4 Comparing criteria or subcriteria ........................................................................ 84.4.1 Using the Survey mode to create the Pairwise Comparison Matrix ......... 13

4.5 Defining Alternatives........................................................................................ 14

4.6 Defining Rating for the each criterion .............................................................. 144.7 Score ................................................................................................................. 19

4.8 Analysis............................................................................................................. 21

4.8.1 Head-to-Head Analysis............................................................................. 224.8.2 Spider Chart .............................................................................................. 22

4.8.3 Synthesis ................................................................................................... 23

4.8.4 Button for switching between Performance and Gap Score Chart ........... 24

4.8.5 New Score Chart....................................................................................... 254.8.6 Weighted mode......................................................................................... 25

4.8.7 Gradient Analytical Tool .......................................................................... 26

4.8.8 Series......................................................................................................... 274.8.9 Alternate Format for Performance Chart .................................................. 27

4.9 Using Ideal Mode.............................................................................................. 284.10 End of Training Session.................................................................................... 29

4.11 Defining Levels of Scale................................................................................... 29

4.11.1 Add new and register new scale................................................................ 304.11.2 Assigning scales........................................................................................ 31

4.11.3 Menu ......................................................................................................... 31

4.11.4 Using ranged scale.................................................................................... 324.12 Linking to Data in Worksheets and databases .................................................. 33

4.12.1 Defining the data in worksheets and databases......................................... 34

4.12.2 Ranking alternatives.................................................................................. 36

4.13 Other Functions................................................................................................. 37

5 References ..................................................................................................37




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1 Introduction to Decision Support System

“Decision support systems couple the intellectual resources of individuals with the

capabilities of the computer to improve the quality of decisions. It is a computer-based

support system for management decision makers who dealt with semi structured

problems”. (Turban and Aronson, 2001)

As it is aptly called, the bSURE Strategic Decision Support Tool is a computerized information

system that combines data, analytical tools and models to support semi-structured and

unstructured management decision-making.

It can be used in the following stages of decision-making process.

o Identify and define potential problems and/or opportunities,

o Develop alternative solutions to the problem, and

o Select an alternative or a course of action.

As it is a decision support for a rationale decision maker, bSURE decision support tool or system

offers a substantial amount of analytical tools for user to evaluate the robustness of a decision

model.

2 Why AHP?

When evaluating complex issues, factors contributing to the issue are not always equally

contributing to the objective. Many a time, decision makers tend to make all factors equally

contributable making the final judgment skewed.

We use a known technique devised by Professor Thomas Saaty called Analytic Hierarchy

Process (AHP), which simplifies the calculation of weights for each action to the mission or

objective (Saaty, 2000 and Islam, 2003).

As these weights are ratio scales, they can therefore be used to leverage the weight of

contribution to the cost to the benefits in a BOCR (Benefits-Opportunities-Costs-Risks) decision

model, making decision making more systematic and justifiable (Saaty, 2005).

Making consensus decisions are now more systematic, objective, transparent, efficient and

effective.

For more details on this process, there are many websites that contain the relevant information.




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3 Basic steps

The following are the basic steps to using bSure Strategic Decision Support and Gap Analysis

Tool, namely:

1. Defining the goal or objectives of the evaluation,

2. Defining the criteria (and sub criteria),3. Selecting the alternatives or options

4. Compare all criteria within the same level and for all subcriteria,

5. Synthesize the decision model,

6. Defining the scales associated to the relevant criteria,

7. Ranking the alternatives, which can be optional depending on the type of evaluation

required. And

8. Analyze the robustness of the model using available analytic tools.

4 bSURE Strategic Decision Support Tool – TIMBANGTARA

bSURE TimbangTara are designed to be user friendly. Upon executing the application, the above

splash screen (in orange) will be displayed on top of the main screen. You would see the version

and details of your license; including the expiry date at the top right corner of the splash screen.Click any area inside the splash screen:

The main window can be resized according to individual user’s needs. Click the maximize button

for a bigger window:




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4.1 Accessing the Menu

At the top of the window there are a set of menu buttons which user has to click to execute

specific functions. The user can also right hand click at any uncovered portion (coloured yellow)

of the main form or click at the command button at the topmost left to display a floating menu.

The user has the option to use the top toolbar or from the floating menu for the same features.

Click “Disable Toolbar” or “Enable Toolbar “to hide or show the toolbar.

Use the following buttons for specific operations:

New Create new issue

OpenOpen existing file from

directory

SaveAs Save current file

Templates Open Templates (Not available)

There will be a dialogue box to open or saving your current work:




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In order to continue this user training better, let’s assume a problem. Let’s assume we want to

buy a car. Let’s assume a decision model that is based on the following hierarchy:

MissionChoose a Car

Reliability ComfortCosts Safety

Gen 2

Spektra

Honda City

Waja

Spektra

Waja

Honda City

Gen 2

Waja

Gen 2

Spektra

Honda City

Waja

Gen 2

Spektra

Honda City

As you notice, in this presentation, same list of Alternatives is repeated for all criteria, meaning no

scales are required for this model. The relative weights for each criterion are calculated with

respect to the criterion from relative comparison of each alternative against another on pairwise

or set of two-basis.

This is good because hard data are sometimes difficult to come by but we need to rely on

subjective parameters. Humans have a good sense of notion and can judge if a car is more

comfortable than the other by just taking a feel at a show room.

We could calculate the weights by substituting the hard data by comparing instead the

alternatives in respect to the criterion. This require us using the AHP technique.




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First, click menu File->New to clear the current workspace and prepare for the next problem

definition stage, where we need to define the goal.

4.2 Defining goal

When defining goal, ensure that we are clear in what we want to decide or evaluate on. This goal

will be later displayed throughout the weighing process to ensure user focus.From the menu tool click menu Edit Goal, and the following command button appears on the

right of Goal :

Type “Buy Best Car” and click the tick button to save.

4.3 Treeview

The Treeview is where we insert the criterion.

For a floating menu, you can right-hand click the root node (at the ‘Goal’ text) or at any nodes.

Select Add Node, to add the first criteria. Type “Cost” and click OK.

Type in the description of the criterion. These details will be displayed as Tool tip.




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Continue with the other criteria and click cancel after the last criterion has been entered. The

Treeview will now look like this:

You may want to save your work at this stage. For the sake of completeness, name the file

“BuyCarExample.bsg”.

The nodes are not checked if they are disabled. We can now proceed to calculate the weights

using the AHP. First, we must ensure the enable the criteria are enabled before proceeding to the

next stage. To enable, click the relevant checkboxes as follow:

4.4 Comparing criteria or subcriteria

Right hand click at the topmost node (GOAL) and select “Pairwise Compare -> Questionnaire

Mode” to compare all the nodes below the selected parent node. (Note: For comparing using

survey mode, please refer to the section accompanying this one.)




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The following compare form will prompt you:

Select the level of importance of one criterion compare to the other based on the following scale:

The form displays many levels; described as follow:




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The user is prompted with 9 levels of relative values. These values signify the comparison

between two factors or a pair of factors. Hence, the term pairwise comparison where a set of

factors or criteria is compared two at a time with respect to the Goal.

1 – Equally important

3 – Factor A is moderately more important than Factor B

5 – A is strongly more important

7 – A is very strongly more important

9 – A is extremely more important

2,4,6,8 are intermediate levels.

A ‘0’ means no vote has been taken yet. All comparison must be completed before any analysis

can be done.

By default, the levels scope the following action to the following statement:

“With respect to a goal, compare the relative importance of Factor A to Factor B” or you can

rephrase it by pressing the Phrase->Save Phrase button.

Use button to invert the comparison. Inverting the comparison will change the way the

questionnaire is read, i.e.:Factor B, instead, is more important:

Use the following buttons for the specific operations of the form:

Next Comparison

End the Comparison

Back to Previous Comparison




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Skip the comparison process

Once either End button is clicked, the comparison process has basically ended, and the user is

then prompted with the following Analyze Pairwise Results form:

Clicking the Skip button will skip the comparison process and bring us to the same form.

The blue progress bars on the right display the corresponding weights:

The weights are displayed when the mouse hovers on top of the corresponding bar. The cells

represent the following Pairwise Comparison Matrix and should be equal to the levels selected

during the pairwise comparison process.

COS Rel Com Saf

COST 1 1/4 3 1

Reliability 4 1 2 2

Comfort 1/3 1/2 1 1

Safety 1 1/2 1 1




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The Pairwise Comparison Matrix (PCM) is colour coded. Except for the values along the

diagonal, a pair of reciprocals is grouped with the same colour. The degree of importance is read

horizontally from left to right; in this example, Reliability is between strongly and moderately

more important than COST.

Hover the mouse on top of the column title (in this example, COS ), for immediate details (tooltip)

of the criteria, on the progress bar for the detailed weights of the criteria.

If you notice, the consistency index (C.I) is coloured red since the value is greater than 0.1. For a

good comparison, the C.I should be less than 0.1. The software has a function that will advise the

user the specific cell that will give the most gain in terms of consistency when the value is

changed.

The values of the cells are not always based on integers (i.e. 1, 2, 3, etc) as you would see later.

These values can still be changed by double clicking the specific cell. Only the diagonal cells,

which are always 1, are not modifiable.

Use the following command or menu buttons for the specific operations:

Recalculate using the current matrix

Revert to old comparison matrix

values

Most Gain Copy value to coloured cell

2nd

Most

Gain

Copy value to coloured cell

SaveSave the current pairwise and weights

onto the file

Recalculate

Recalculate using the current matrixAnalysis

Reset

Revert to old matrix values

Quit Close form

Help Help (Currently not implemented)

To improve the consistency, recalculate the current matrix, by pressing . Nevertheless, the user

may want to proceed with the current values; only that the decision making process will beconsistently inconsistent ; so to speak.

The textbox at the bottom of the Matrix keeps the historical information of previous comparisons.

Once ‘Save’ is initiated, the weights are displayed at the main form as the cell Local Weights

(LW). The system will automatically calculate the Global Weights (GW):




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GW is calculated based on the following formula:

Local Weight X Parent Weight

In this case, the parent (Node Goal) weight is 1.

4.4.1 Using the Survey mode to create the Pairwise Comparison

Matrix

If survey mode were selected, the user will be prompted with different form. Depending on which

factors are more important, click the appropriate value towards the more important factor as

shown below.

The above implements the same following Pairwise Comparison Matrix. Take special note of the

fractional values and its position in the above input format.

COS Rel Com Saf

COST 1 1/4 3 1

Reliability 4 1 2 2

Comfort 1/3 1/2 1 1

Safety 1 1/2 1 1




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4.5 Defining Alternatives

Since there is no Scales used for this decision model, we will proceed with defining the

alternatives.

At the Alternatives Grid block, right-hand click for another floating menu:

Select “Add Option” to add the first alternative, “WAJA”. Continuously, add the rest and

terminate the list by selecting “Cancel” after the last alternative.

4.6 Defining Rating for the each criterion

To start defining the rating for each criterion, click scale-ratings . Please take note

that no scales are used for this particular model. We will show you another problem example with

will use scales for rating.




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There are 2 ways of doing the comparison; by relative pairwise comparison or by relative data

comparison. Suppose that we have the Sticker Prices from the ever eager salesmen, we could

directly put these values into the system.

From the left Criteria List Box, select “COST” and then from the form menu, select Relative-

>Data:

Insert the appropriate values (in this case, multiples of 10RMs):




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The contribution of inputs to the scale is calculated based on the actual

numerical data, e.g. price of a car, rental rate, and population divided by the total.

This method is called normalization. The software will automatically calculate the

normalized values.

You can select either normal or inverse mode. For this example, as it is cost

factor, where smaller value is better, select from the form menu, Evaluate-

>Inverse; and click OK to proceed.




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Next, select the next criterion Reliability, and from the form top menu,

Compare->Relative->Pairwise since we only have no hard data, but subjective

only parameters, to compare.

You will be prompted with a familiar Compare form with the phrase changed to

suit the respective criterion you are comparing:

As you would notice, now we are comparing the relative value of alternatives with

respect to (wrt) Reliability in meeting the above Goal. Select the values with the

ones shown on the following Pairwise Matrix:




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Click “Save” and proceed to the next criterion, Comfort and Safety. For

completeness sake, the following values are used.

Please take note that these values do not represent the actual values used but

only for demonstration and make believe purposes only. Careful and balanced

judgment must be made for the results to be valid.

For Comfort

For Safety

Note : The writer assumes that all Proton Cars and KIA have the same technology for Safety but

inferior to Honda.

Final Note:

As you would notice, only 8 alternatives are allowed for this mode. This is not a

system constraint but a factor that attributes to using pairwise comparisons; as

for every C number of factors there would be C*(C-1)/2 comparisons needed to

be done.




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For a 4 criteria problem, there would be 4*3/2 = 6 comparisons to do. It is

assumed that a user in the demo software can only have the physical mental

focus of making 8*7/2 = 28 comparisons, which can take more than 1 hour.

In future versions, we may increase this number if there is a need for it. For the

other mode, we do not restrict the number of alternatives.

At the Scale Form click OK to revert to Main form.

4.7 Score

The Score is automatically calculated and a performance chart (on the right) is

updated for further analysis.

As can be seen, Honda City is the best overall despite having the highest sticker

price; with Waja a distant second, Gen2 third and Spektra last.

You can click Ranking->Ranking Table for more details.




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SortTo sort the rank the alternative

according to score

Unsort To revert to previous display

Ideal Display score in Ideal mode

ClustersAlternative scoring format according

to group

Select Clusters for alternative format:

As calculated weights by AHP are basically ratio scales, we can do some handy

calculations. You can evaluate the scoring according to one of the following

format:




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o BO/CR, where the denominator (D) list are divided by numerator (N) list

according to the following formulation

Score of D1 * Score of D2 * ……Dn , etc / Score of N1 * N2 * …Nn

o B+O-(C+R)

Score of D1+D2 +….Dn – (N1+N2 +….Nn )

o B+O/(C+R)

Score of D1+D2 +….Dn / (N1+N2 +….Nn )

This type of formulas would come in handy in analyzing problems that require

evaluation of Benefits over Cost, Value for Money, etc.

Referring to our problem, the Honda City is proven to be a ‘Value for Money’ as it

gives more benefits over unit cost comparing to other brands. It also scores well

with all the other formats.Add Add Cluster from List

Remove Remove Cluster from List

Go Go calculate

Save Save Lists

4.8 Analysis

The software comes with many analytical functions, summarized as follow:

Name Description

Head-to-Head

Analysis

Compare two alternatives on a criteria to criteria basis in a horizontal

bar format

Spider ChartCompare two alternatives on a criteria to criteria basis in a spider chart

format

Synthesis Priority preferences of criteria

Score/Gap ChartSwitch between Performance Analysis and Gap Performance Analysis;

criteria to criteria

New Score Chart Open New Score Chart.

Weighted Score

Chart

Scores are recalculated according to actual global weights ofcontribution. Non-weighted scores are based on local performance

scores

Gradient

Analysis ToolA separate form is displayed for what-ifs scenarios analysis




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Overall Score

Chart

Overall score in vertical bar format without the detailed criteria

performance.

Alternative

PresentationDouble click chart for alternative chart in line format

Click the command button to activate the tool function.

4.8.1 Head-to-Head Analysis

Next Alternatives Pair

Previous Alternatives Pair

New Head-to-Head Window

4.8.2 Spider Chart

Spider Chart is a graphical way to compare data displayed in a “web-like” form. It

is used to evaluate multiple alternatives based on multiple criteria (Rogers,

Cephas B, 1995).




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Weighted

ViewRedisplay chart using weighted values

NewNew Chart. To select different set of

alternatives pair

4.8.3 Synthesis

The priorities of the criteria are displayed when the button is pressed. It is sorted

in descending order. The top 80% of criteria contributing to the goal is marked in

red by the last criterion.




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4.8.4 Button for switching between Performance and Gap ScoreChart

This button switches between rating performance and gaps in a criterion-to-

criterion.

The current chart will instead show a chart showing differences from the ideal

values.




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4.8.5 New Score Chart

The new chart displayed can be arranged alongside the gap chart for better

comparison.

4.8.6 Weighted mode

The displayed performance chart will instead show the values according to the

globally weighted values (GWs) instead of local weights (LWs).




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4.8.7 Gradient Analytical Tool

The tool has three sections. The left section consists of the set of bars,representing criteria and global weights of the top nodes in the hierarchy. Any

lower level nodes are clustered to the first level. (Goal is considered as root or

zero level.)

The right section represents the scores of the alternatives, whilst the lower line

graphs represent the gradient sensitivity when the value of a selected criterion is

varied.




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The colour of the central vertical line corresponds to the colour of the criteria at

the top left corner. To select the criterion and vary the value, click the criterion at

the top left section. An inversed coloured bar will appear and when the criterion

bar is moved, this new vertical line will also be varied along the horizontal axis.

The extrapolated value for each alternative new score is displayed at the top right

section. Click the specific criteria bar, press the shift button and use the mouse to

move the bar either left or right, for a new value.

We can deduce that even by varying the criterion substantially from a value of

0.1845 to almost over 0.71, will there be a change in ranking. In this case, WAJA

will overtake CITY and GEN2 come a close third. This basically tells us that only

if COST is changed to over 3.8 times will a rank reversal takes place. Or if an

error had happened during the first Pairwise Matrix judgement, WAJA will be the

right choice. But this is unlikely since the amount of change needed is very high.

So we can say that our decision model is sufficiently robust against a rank

reversal. This will frequently happen if the Consistency Index is very high.

4.8.8 Series

This button shows the overall scores in a simple ascending format.

4.8.9 Alternate Format for Performance Chart

Click the chart for the performance graph in a 2-D line format.




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This is has been made a brief explanation to a lengthy subject; the users need to

refer to appropriate literature on the origins of and the needs for Open System

(Ideal Synthesis) and Close System (Distributive Synthesis) to prevent or

allowing rank reversals in AHP.

bSURE TimbangTara has incorporated a mean to allow and avoid rank reversals

for closed and open system systems respectively.

A closed system is when there is a scarcity, for example distribution of a fixed

RND budget or a choice between 3 parliamentary candidates.

An open system is when there is no scarcity (or in abundance); where resources

can be added or removed.

4.10 End of Training SessionThis section ends the basic training session, using rating by absolute comparison

between defined strategic alternatives or options.

In many cases, specific scales are required for each criterion. In the next section

we will introduce how to define scale using this software.

4.11 Defining Levels of Scale

Revisiting scale form, you will see that on the right hand side, excluding 0, a

group of text boxes that can specify up to eight levels of scale.

To define scale, the chosen criterion must be assigned to a scale.




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To define scale, select scale from main menu to get the Scale form as follows:

There are 3 columns to work from, namely: - criteria, scale and question

columns.

4.11.1 Add new and register new scale

You have to register all scales before we can assign them to a particular

criterion. Select the New Menu, type the new Scale name at the textbox located

on top second list box, and select Register to confirm the scale:

Repeat the process until all scales are registered.




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4.11.2 Assigning scales

From Assign menu, you can have options to assign to specific criterion, all

criteria or un-assign the criterion. If a criterion is not assigned, it is considered

assigned for absolute comparison.

4.11.3 Menu

The menu commands are listed as follow:

Import ScaleImport Scale from other files. Function is not

available in this version

Create Generic

Scales

Create scales automatically from current

criteria but are not linked

Create Generic

Scales

Create Generic Scales and automatically link to

the criteria

New Create new scale

Register Register Scale

Scale

Save ScaleSave Scale locally. However, the scale is not

permanently saved in the file.

Link To Worksheet Link to Worksheet

Link to MapXLink to MapX. Function is not enabled in

this version Link

Link to ADO Link to ADO Compatible Databases

Link To Data Link Criteria to Data kept in external databaseCriteria

Unlink To Data Unlink criteria from database

Relative Relative Pairwise ComparisonCompare

Data Data Comparison

1 Assign Selected Scale to Selected CriterionAll Assign Selected Scale to All CriteriaAssign

Unassign Unassign selected criterion

Notes Function not available in this version.

Edit Levels Change Level names

Edit Ranges Change Range specifications

Edit Question Change Question associated with current scaleActions

Edit Scale

DescriptionChange Scale Description.

Help Function not available online in this version

Save Button

When this button appears, the text box is in

Edit mode. Click this button to save.

Range Text <= Select <= mode as range operator

>=Select >= mode as range operator. Function

not available in this version.

Construct Text Reconstruct Range Text




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4.11.4 Using ranged scale

We can specify ranged values to the scale as shown in the following example:

To edit a ranged scale, select Edit Ranges.




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In this example, there are 4 levels of values, with the last level, 0=< x =<35

carries a zero weight or no contribution. To edit the ranges, insert the desired

values start from the bottom row and move upwards for the last range. The

mathematical text at the centre will be automatically constructed. You can also

use the Range Text - > Construct Text menu to reconstruct the range.

To terminate the ranges, the last value on the right (topmost green box) is to be

made a 0:

Check the Edit Ranges checkbox to terminate the edit ranges mode.

Note: The Min and Max are not used in this version.

4.12 Linking to Data in Worksheets and databases

The software allows rating data to be read from Worksheets and databases at

the same time. At the time of print, it can read also data from datasets of spatial

database, and results are output to a map. However, in this version, the function

is not made available.

Once the function is selected, you will be prompted with one of the following

forms depending which function is selected:




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Select the appropriate files. You are allowed to specify only one spreadsheet and

database at a time.

Once these linkages have been defined, you can now link the criteria to the

specific fields of these data sources.

The above is shown for Reliability criterion. Select the field and click Link button

to complete the process. Continuously, doing it for other criteria that need to be

linked before you proceed to ranking table. Please take note you can only do it

once the scale levels have been defined.

4.12.1 Defining the data in worksheets and databases

Defining the data columns required certain format and rules. Worksheet data

must have the top row as the criteria name and row 0 starts at the bottom after




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that. The first column of the topmost row must have the text “OPTION”

embedded.

Practically, not all data are needed in the worksheet. Only those data that are

numerical or real values can be stored in the Excel worksheet or database.

You can also use indexed value of the scale; although care must be taken that

the index exists, otherwise a zero rating is returned instead. For text scale, like

“Average” must be stored exactly as it is spelled.

For Microsoft Access (*.mdb files) files, the linked table must be named “bSure”

and “OPTIONS” field is mandatory and must be correctly spelt.




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During ranking, all the data linked to worksheet or database will be automatically

filled in.

For unlinked criteria, the user is required to go through the combo box list to

select the rating.

4.12.2 Ranking alternatives

Once you have finished the scales, you can now proceed to ranking the

alternatives as normal.




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Ranking is done either by manually run through the alternatives by answering the

questions; or are automatically read from the worksheet or database.

The legends described at the top of the table describe the mode of entry of the

ratings. The background colour of the criteria cell signifies the type of comparison

while the foreground colour the manner data is entered or linked.

4.13 Other Functions

Import ANP

Super Matrix

Import a Super Matrix from an Excel

Spreadsheet

Export

Export weights, orphaned criteria list

and other variables to an ActiveX

Container. The Container must be

licensed to receive.

Another important feature of the software is that once all the criteria have been

compared, enabling or disabling a criterion will automatically recalculate the

overall scores.

5 References

• Rogers, Cephas B. The Spider Chart: A Unique Tool for Performance

Appraisal, ASQC, 1995

• Saaty, T. Theory and Applications of the Analytic Network Process:

Decision Making with Benefits, Opportunities, Costs and Risks, RWS

Publications, 2005




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• Islam, R. The Analytic Hierarchy Process: An Effective Multi-Criteria

Decision Making Tool, International Islamic University Malaysia, 2003

• Saaty, T. The Fundamentals of Decision Making and Priority Theory, RWS

Publications, 2000

• Turban, E and Aronson, J.E. Decision Support Systems and Intelligent

Systems, Prentice-Hall, 2001

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