BRUNEI DARUSSALAM RECENT ECONOMIC … Documents Library/NDP/Policy research/Brunei...BRUNEI...

BRUNEI DARUSSALAMRECENT ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE

27th August 2015

Prepared by:

Department of Economic Planning and Development

BRUNEI VISION 2035

GOAL I

Well-educated, highly skilled and accomplished people

GOAL II

High quality of life

GOAL III

Dynamic and sustainable economy

(with a per capita income among the top 10 countries in the world)

PRIMARY OBJECTIVES FOR ECONOMIC POLICY MAKERS

Sustainable Economic Growth Rate,

Growth Target ~ 5% to 6% per annum

Low Inflation Rate, Inflation Target ~ 2%

Full Employment, Unemployment Target ~ 4%

Trade Balance ~ Surplus

GDP AT CURRENT PRICESIN 2014

• Brunei Darussalam economy was about BND21.7 billion (USD16.7 bil) in current prices in2014.

• With population of 411,900, Brunei Darussalam’s per capita GDP in 2014 was BND52,614.(USD40,472).

• In current prices, oil and gas sector contributed 63.3% of GDP in 2014.

Oil and gas , 63.3%

Agriculture, Forestry and Fishery, 0.8%

Manufacturing, 0.9%Electricity & Water, 0.7%

Construction, 1.9%

Trade, 4.2%

Transportation, 1.7%

Communication, 1.3%

Finance, 4.3%

Real Estate, 3.0%

Hotels & Restaurants, 0.8%

Health & Education Services, 3.8%

Business Services, 2.2%

Private Services, 0.4%

Government Services , 10.3% Oil and gas

Agriculture, Forestry and Fishery

Manufacturing

Electricity & Water

Construction

Trade

Transportation

Communication

Finance

Real Estate

Hotels & Restaurants

Health & Education Services

Business Services

Private Services

Government Services

Source: Department of Economic, Planning and Development (DEPD)

0.8% 0.9% 0.7%1.9%

4.2%1.7% 1.3%

4.3%3.0%

0.8%

3.8%2.2%

0.4%

10.3%

0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%

10.0%12.0%

NON-OIL AND GAS SECTOR(36.7% OF GDP)

Oil and Gas Sector63.3%

Non oil and Gas Sector 36.7%

BY SECTOR 48.3%

15.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

Oil and Gas Mining Manufacture of liquefied natural gas andmethanol

OIL AND GAS SECTOR(63.3% OF GDP)


GDP DISTRIBUTION IN 2014


GDP BY EXPENDITURE

In 2014:2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Government final consumption expenditure

22.2% 18.7% 18.4% 20.2% 21.6%

Household final consumption expenditure 14.7% 12.8% 13.8% 15.3% 15.6%

Investment 23.5% 25.9% 32.8% 39.5% 27.3%

Construction 10.5% 10.4% 12.6% 13.4% 11.1%

Machinery 13.0% 15.5% 20.2% 26.0% 16.2%

Exports of goods and services 67.4% 69.5% 70.2% 68.0% 71.0%

Goods 64.0% 66.8% 67.6% 65.3% 68.2%

Services 3.4% 2.7% 2.5% 2.7% 2.8%

Imports of goods and services 28.0% 30.0% 35.5% 42.9% 35.7%

Goods 18.7% 20.2% 21.6% 27.1% 21.7%

Services 9.2% 9.8% 13.9% 15.8% 13.9%

Government final

consumption expenditure,

21.6%

Household final consumption expenditure,

15.6%

Investment, 27.3%

Net Exports, 35.3%

GDP Growth Performance

8

8

OIL PRODUCTION DECLINING

NEGATIVE ECONOMIC GROWTH

3.7

0.9

(2.1) (2.3)

(10.0)

(5.0)

0.0

5.0

10.0

2011 2012 2013 2014

%

Oil and GasSector

Non Oil and GasSector

Real GDPGrowth

Source: DEPD & EDPMO

REAL GDP GROWTH AND OIL PRODUCTION (ANNUALLY)

165,873 159,012

135,160

126,425

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

2011 2012 2013 2014

bar

rels

per

day

9

9

Source: DEPD & EDPMO

REAL GDP GROWTH AND OIL PRODUCTION (1985-2014)

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

19

85

19

86

19

87

19

88

19

89

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

Bar

rels

per

day

Y-o

-y g

row

th r

ate

(%)

Oil & gas Non-oil & gas GDP Oil Production

10

10

LOW GDP GROWTH RATE COMPARED TO'ASEAN-5' AND 'WORLD'

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 *2015

Negara Brunei Darussalam 0.2 (1.9) (1.8) 2.6 3.7 0.9 (2.1) (2.3) (0.8)

ASEAN-5 6.2 5.5 2.2 6.9 4.6 6.1 5.2 4.6 5.2

World 5.7 3.1 (0.0) 5.4 4.2 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.5

(4.0)

(2.0)

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0%

Note: * estimated in February 2015 based on base year 2000Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook Database, April 2015 dan JPKEASEAN-5 (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Viet Nam)

11

11

GDP GROWTH RATE COMPARED TO'ASEAN-5' AND 'WORLD'

Note: * estimated in February 2015 based on base year 2000Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook Database, April 2015 dan JPKEASEAN-5 (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Viet Nam)

-10.0

-8.0

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

19

85

19

86

19

87

19

88

19

89

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

%

World ASEAN-5 Brunei Darussalam

Inflation

INFLATION RATES UNTIL JULY 2015


INFLATION RATE IS LOW AND DECLINING

0.1

1.1 0.9

0.7 1.0

0.2

(0.8)

0.0 (0.1)0.2

(0.2)

0.2

(0.2) (0.3) (0.4)(0.7)

(1.3)

1.2

0.5

(0.8)

(0.1)(0.3) (0.3)

(0.5)

(0.4)

(2.0)

(1.5)

(1.0)

(0.5)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul

2014 2015

CPI Food Non-food

INFLATION RATES(BASE YEAR=2010)

Weights 2011 2012 2013 20142015

Jan-July

OVERALL INDEX 10,000 0.1 0.2 0.4 -0.2 -0.3

Food And Non-alcoholic Beverages 1,911 0.0 0.0 0.1 -0.2 0.5

Clothing And Footwear 424 0.6 0.0 0.6 -2.4 -4.2

Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas And Other Fuels 1,114 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.7 2.1

Furnishings, Household Equipment And Routine Household Maintenance

1,101 0.0 0.0 -0.7 -2.2 -1.3

Health 132 0.0 0.0 -0.3 0.4 2.1

Transport 1,883 0.0 0.1 2.2 0.4 -2.3

Communication 601 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.1 1.4

Recreation And Culture 913 0.2 0.4 0.4 -2.0 -0.6

Education 390 0.1 1.3 0.8 2.7 -2.5

Restaurants And Hotels 885 0.1 0.1 0.2 2.0 1.5

Miscellaneous Goods And Services 646 1.2 0.1 -0.9 0.9 0.6


Merchandise Trade

16

MERCHANDISE TRADE WITH OIL AND GAS EXPORTS – TRADE SURPLUS


PERFORMANCE OF INTERNATIONAL TRADE UP TO SECOND QUARTER 2015

MERCHANDISE TRADE WITHOUT OIL AND GAS EXPORTS – TRADE DEFICIT

3,386.5

2,541.3 2,790.0 3,047.7 3,330.1

2,283.4 2,029.5 2,145.4

2,998.7 2,395.6

1,955.3 1,492.6 1,663.4

1,092.4

-

1,000.0

2,000.0

3,000.0

4,000.0

5,000.0

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

2012 2013 2014 2015

BN

D M

illio

n

Total Exports Total Imports Trade Balance

(1,026.4) (1,158.3)(995.4) (888.3) (909.8)

(1,133.5) (1,077.8) (1,004.1)

(538.6)

(1,027.5) (966.0)(1,197.5)

(725.9)(1,081.5) (1,500.0)

(1,000.0)

(500.0)

-

500.0

1,000.0

1,500.0

2,000.0

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

2012 2013 2014 2015

BN

D M

illio

n

Total Exports w/o Oil & Gas Total Imports Trade Balance

17

SURPLUS TRADE BALANCE WITH 90% EXPORTS COME FROM OIL AND GAS

TRADE BALANCE BECOMES DEFICIT WITHOUT OIL AND GAS EXPORTS

TRADE BALANCE (ANNUALLY)


8,390.4

11,294.7

6,943.0 8,660.3

11,150.0 11,765.6 9,788.4 8,842.1

-

4,000.0

8,000.0

12,000.0

16,000.0

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

BN

D m

illio

n

Total Exports Total Imports Trade Balance

(2,720.3) (3,320.7) (3,080.5) (2,995.9)(4,045.2) (4,068.4) (4,125.2) (3,729.6)

(5,000.0)

(3,000.0)

(1,000.0)

1,000.0

3,000.0

5,000.0

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

BN

D m

illio

n

Total Exports w/o Oil & Gas Total Imports Trade Balance

Japan, 3.7%

Korea, Republic of,

12.8%

Australia, 18.1%

India, 21.7%Indonesia, 14.2%

Malaysia, 1.5%

New Zealand, 8.2%

Philippines, 1.6%

Singapore, 4.1%

Thailand, 12.0%

Vietnam, 2.1%

Crude Oil, 41.7%

LNG, 50.9%

Methanol, 1.9%

Others, 5.5%

Japan, 74.7%

Korea, Republic of,

10.5%

Malaysia, 3.5%

China, 1.0%

Taiwan, 10.3%

MAJOR EXPORTS & DESTINATIONS (2014)



IMPORTS & ORIGIN(2014)

Machinery and transport

equipment38.5%

Manufactured goods 15.0%

Food 13.5%

Miscellaneous manufactured

articles11.0%

Mineral fuels 10.2%

Chemicals 8.4%

Beverages and tobacco

1.4%

Crude materials inedible

1.0%

Animal and vegetable oils and

fats0.4%

Miscellaneous transaction

0.5%

21.6%

14.9%

11.1%8.6%

7.1%

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

Korea, Republicof

USA Singapore China Japan

More Than 50% of Machinery & Transport Equipment Imported From:

26.3%

17.5%14.9%

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

China Malaysia (Peninsular) singapore

More Than 50% Of Manufactured Goods Imported From:

Fiscal Balance

REVENUE WITHOUT OIL AND GAS


GOVERNMENT FINANCE UP TO SECOND QUARTER OF 2015

REVENUE WITH OIL AND GAS3,747.8

2,466.7 2,210.4 2,126.5

2,513.9 2,462.3

1,797.8 1,294.0 1,181.9 974.7

2,404.1 1,648.6 1,681.7 1,868.2

2,399.3

1,498.5 1,534.6 1,843.7 2,002.3

1,383.2 1,343.6

818.1 528.7 258.4 114.6

963.8 263.1

(549.7) (820.4)(408.5)

(1,000.0)

0.0

1,000.0

2,000.0

3,000.0

4,000.0

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

2013 2014 2015

BN

D m

illio

n

Total Government Revenue Total Government Expenditure Fiscal Balance

807.8 185.8 203.1 164.7 266.1 229.4 243.5 139.0 197.0 200.0

2,404.1 1,648.6 1,681.7 1,868.2 2,399.3 1,498.5 1,534.6 1,843.7 2,002.3

1,383.2

(1,596.4) (1,462.8) (1,478.7) (1,703.5)(2,133.2)

(1,269.1) (1,291.1)(1,704.8) (1,805.3)

(1,183.2)

(2,500.0)

(1,500.0)

(500.0)

500.0

1,500.0

2,500.0

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

2013 2014 2015

BN

D m

illio

n

Total Government Revenue w/o Oil & Gas Revenue Total Government Expenditure Fiscal Balance

22

SURPLUS FISCAL BALANCE AS 90% OF REVENUE COMES FROM OIL AND GAS

DEFICIT FISCAL BALANCE WITHOUT OIL AND GAS REVENUE

FISCAL BALANCE FROM 2008 – 2014


14,309.6

6,650.3 8,202.9

12,895.9 11,134.1 10,551.4

8,067.9 6,146.1 6,037.8 6,761.5 6,923.0 7,376.4 7,602.6 7,276.0

8,163.5

612.4 1,441.4

5,972.9 3,757.7 2,948.8

791.8 0.0

5,000.0

10,000.0

15,000.0

20,000.0

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

BN

D m

illio

n

Total Government Revenue Total Government Expenditure Fiscal Balance

908.3 803.2 900.0 1,106.4 809.7 1,361.3 877.9

6,146.1 6,037.8 6,761.5 6,923.0 7,376.4 7,602.6 7,276.0

(5,237.7) (5,234.6) (5,861.5) (5,816.6) (6,566.7) (6,241.3) (6,398.1)

(10,000.0)

(5,000.0)

0.0

5,000.0

10,000.0

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

BN

D m

illio

n

Total Government Revenue w/o Oil & Gas Revenue Total Government Expenditure Fiscal Balance

Unemployment


HIGH UNEMPLOYMENT RATE

3.6

4.7

7.2

9.3

6.9

0

3

6

9

1981 1991 2001 2011 2014

%

12,137 11,834

14,267 15,272 14,950 14,814 15,081

14,116 13,854 14,065

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

2014 2015

No

. of

loca

ls u

nem

plo

yed


THE PROFILE OF UNEMPLOYEDAS AT JUNE 2015

Evaluation Performance

OBJECTIVE TARGET ACTUAL ASSESSMENT

Economic

Growth5% to 6%

-2.3% in 2014Unsatisfactory:

Negative growth rate, below the regional annual growth rate,

and dominated by oil and gas in terms of output. NOT

DIVERSIFIED

Inflation

Rate2% annually or lower -0.2% in 2014

Satisfactory:

Mainly due the the support from subsidies. However, negative

can be a concern.

Unemployment

Rate4% or lower 6.9% in 2014

Unsatisfactory:

The rate is too high, particularly amongst youths, the majority

of whom are having only secondary and primary level of

education.

Trade

BalanceSurplus Surplus

Satisfactory:

Around 95% of exports were contributed by the oil and gas

sector, which implies that the economy is NOT DIVERSIFIED.

Thank you

BRUNEI DARUSSALAM RECENT ECONOMIC … Documents Library/NDP/Policy research/Brunei...BRUNEI...

Documents

Transcript of BRUNEI DARUSSALAM RECENT ECONOMIC … Documents Library/NDP/Policy research/Brunei...BRUNEI...