Ground Improvement Technology – Micropiles FHWA Short Course Dr. Donald A. Bruce
BRUCE SHORT 2012 Mid-Year Update
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Transcript of BRUCE SHORT 2012 Mid-Year Update
BRUCE SHORT
2012 Mid-Year Update
Return on Investment
MSN Money.com, Case Shiller
20.8
1
-22.7
34.2
-50
-30
-10
10
30
50
Dow S&P NASDAQ Real Estate
January 2000 – May 2012
Existing Home Sales
12,474 HomesSell Every Dayand 8,346 Buyers Receive a Mortgage
NAR 3/2012
NAR
40%37%
31% 30% 29%31% 30%
28% 29%32%
35% 34%
29%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Percentage of Distressed Property Sales
Pending Home Sales
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
110.0
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
NAR 3/2012
Pending Home Sales
NAR 04/2012
82.0
87.0
92.0
97.0
102.0
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Paul Diggle, property economist, Capital Economics“The increase in households’ confidence in the outlook for the housing market, coupled with a gradual improvement in the pace of the economic recovery, should drive a rise in home sales later this year.”
Doug Duncan, chief economist, Fannie Mae“Conditions are coming together to encourage people to want to buy homes. Americans’ rental price expectations for the next year continue to rise, reaching their record high level for our survey this month. With an increasing share of consumers expecting higher mortgage rates and home prices over the next 12 months, some may feel that renting is becoming more costly and that homeownership is a more compelling housing choice.”
Celia Chen, director of housing economics, Moody’s “The residential property market is recovering, as the factors underlying demand and supply strengthen. Even after accounting for unusual seasonal patterns brought on by the unusually warm winter, conditions have not been this strong since the government ended homebuyer tax credits in 2010.”
Mark Fleming, chief economist, CoreLogic“Since the peak in home prices, mortgages rates have declined and affordability has risen dramatically. Housing affordability is at levels not seen since prior to the early 1990s …While real estate professionals often say that “now is a good time to buy,” it is clear today that April 2006 was probably not a good time to buy, while now may well be the time.”
“I was one of the most negative on housing. I finally came to the conclusion housing looks like a decent place to put money over the next several years…For those of you renting or on the sidelines, I recommend you at least consider getting ‘back in’ and buying a house.”
Mark Kiesel, the PIMCO managing director who just purchased a home.
“We very much believe we’ve hit bottom.”
Ivy Zelman, renowned housing analyst nicknamed ‘Poison Ivy’ for her harsh positions on housing over the last several years.
Bears Turn BullIndustry Analyst 2006-2007 Today
ChristopherThornberg
Declares:“Housing is by no means done. The worst is in front of us,
not behind us.”
“Now is a great time to buy a home.”
John Talbott
Authors the best-seller“Sell Now: the End of the Housing Bubble”
“It is now time to buy a home.”
Ivy Zelman
Nicknamed ‘Poison Ivy’ for her harsh positions on housing.
“We very much believe we’ve hit bottom.”
Mark Kiesel
Declares: “Housing is the next Nasdaq bubble.”
Sold his home.
Suggests others do what he just did: buy a home
3.75
4
4.25
4.5
4.75
5
5.25
Mortgage Rates – 30 Year Fixed
Federal Reserve
1/01/2011 Today
S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
S&P Case Shiller 3/2012
What you can do to increase your success in 2012
Learn your scripts so that you are prepared for selling opportunities
Focus on your business and prospecting – especially on sellers using your data bank/base; become a geographic farmer; learn the art of holding an open house focusing on listings as well as buyers
Have the courage to an EXPERT! That does not mean you are perfect but you are an expert in your field