BROKER'S OPINION OF VALUE · 2018. 2. 23. · BROKER'S OPINION OF VALUE 4295 San Felipe Suite 355...

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BROKER'S OPINION OF VALUE www.ketent.com 4295 San Felipe Suite 355 Houston, TX 77027 A 80 Unit Class C Multi-Family Asset 2006 W 43rd St, HOUSTON, TX 77018

Transcript of BROKER'S OPINION OF VALUE · 2018. 2. 23. · BROKER'S OPINION OF VALUE 4295 San Felipe Suite 355...

Page 1: BROKER'S OPINION OF VALUE · 2018. 2. 23. · BROKER'S OPINION OF VALUE 4295 San Felipe Suite 355 Houston, TX 77027 A 80 Unit Class C Multi-Family Asset 2006 W 43rd St, HOUSTON, TX

BROKER'S OPINION OF VALUE

www.ketent.com4295 San Felipe ● Suite 355 ● Houston, TX 77027

A 80 Unit ● Class C ● Multi-Family Asset

2006 W 43rd St, HOUSTON, TX 77018

Page 2: BROKER'S OPINION OF VALUE · 2018. 2. 23. · BROKER'S OPINION OF VALUE 4295 San Felipe Suite 355 Houston, TX 77027 A 80 Unit Class C Multi-Family Asset 2006 W 43rd St, HOUSTON, TX

GROVE AT 43RD ST 2006 W 43RD  ST HOUSTON, TX 77018

APARTMENTS FOR SALE

PRICE/UNIT: #VALUE!

PRICE/SF: #VALUE!

Units: 80 TERMS: ASSUMPTION

Avg Size: 658 PRO-FORMA CAP RATE: #VALUE!

Date Built: 1961/2016

Rentable Sq. Ft.: 52,600 High ValuationAcreage: 1.76

Occupancy (2/22): 92.5% Mid Range ValueLeased: 2/22/18 94%

Class: B+ Low Valuation

SALIENT FACTS:

♦ Available on an Assumption Basis only ♦ Has undergone a 100% exterior rehab

♦ Located in the Garden Oaks area of Houston ♦ New sheetrock, interior wiring and plumbing

♦ Underwent an extreme upgrade 2015-2016 ♦ Thermal pane glass, granite countertops and new appliances

♦ Improving/Gentrifying area have been installed as of 1/1/17

♦ Value add potential: add W/D units (up to $175/u/mo), bill for water/sewer, pest control, reserved parking!

#VALUE!

Market

#VALUE!

Market

Mark Kalil & Associates, Inc. 2001 Holcombe Blvd, # 105 | Houston, TX 77030

T 713.799.8700 | F 713.799.8703 | C [email protected] | www.markkalil.com

KET Enterprises Incorporated4295 San Felipe, Suite 355 | Houston, TX 77027

T 713.355.4646 | F 713.355.4331 | C 713.628.9408 [email protected] | www.ketent.com

Page 3: BROKER'S OPINION OF VALUE · 2018. 2. 23. · BROKER'S OPINION OF VALUE 4295 San Felipe Suite 355 Houston, TX 77027 A 80 Unit Class C Multi-Family Asset 2006 W 43rd St, HOUSTON, TX

GROVE AT 43RD ST 2006 W 43RD ST HOUSTON, TX 77018

Page 4: BROKER'S OPINION OF VALUE · 2018. 2. 23. · BROKER'S OPINION OF VALUE 4295 San Felipe Suite 355 Houston, TX 77027 A 80 Unit Class C Multi-Family Asset 2006 W 43rd St, HOUSTON, TX

GROVE AT 43RD ST 2006 W 43RD ST HOUSTON, TX 77018

Page 5: BROKER'S OPINION OF VALUE · 2018. 2. 23. · BROKER'S OPINION OF VALUE 4295 San Felipe Suite 355 Houston, TX 77027 A 80 Unit Class C Multi-Family Asset 2006 W 43rd St, HOUSTON, TX

GROVE AT 43RD ST 2006 W 43RD ST HOUSTON, TX 77018

Page 6: BROKER'S OPINION OF VALUE · 2018. 2. 23. · BROKER'S OPINION OF VALUE 4295 San Felipe Suite 355 Houston, TX 77027 A 80 Unit Class C Multi-Family Asset 2006 W 43rd St, HOUSTON, TX

GROVE AT 43RD ST 2006 W 43RD ST HOUSTON, TX 77018

Asking Price Est Mkt Rent (Dec-17)Price Per Unit Amortization (months) 3 Mo Avg

Price Per Sq. Ft. Debt ServiceStabilized NOI Monthly P & IStabilized Value Capped @ 6.% Interest Rate

Est Rehab/Upgrade @ $200/unit Date DueWater Meter / Master RUBS Est. Entrepreneurial Profit Est Res for Repl/Unit/Yr

Est. Carry to Stabilization Yield MaintenancePitched Calculation of Value

PRO-FORMA INCOMECurrent Street Rent with a 6% Increase $86,517 / Mo

Estimated Gross Scheduled Income $86,517 / Mo

Estimated Loss to Lease (2% of Total Street Rent) 2%

Estimated Vacancy (4% of Total Street Rent)Estimated Concessions and Other Rental Losses (2% of Total Street Rent) 2%

Estimated Utilities Income (proposed - not in place)Estimated Other Income (reserved parking, Washer/Dryers, pest are proposed) $493 / Unit / Yr

Estimated Total Rental IncomeESTIMATED TOTAL PRO-FORMA INCOME $84,884 / Mo

3 Mo Avg Income Annualized

Fixed Expenses2017 Tax Rate & Future Assessment

Estimated

$1,795 per Unit $2,325 per Unit

Gas

Total Utilities $623 per Unit $623 per Unit

Other ExpensesGeneral & Admin & MarketingRepairs & MaintenanceLabor CostsContract ServicesManagement Fees 2.92% $310 per Unit 3.50% $446 per Unit

Total Other Expense $2,172 per Unit $2,308 per Unit

Total Operating Expense $4,590 per Unit $5,256 per Unit

Reserve for Replacement $300 per Unit $300 per Unit

Total Expense $4,890 per Unit $5,556 per Unit

Net Operating Income (Actual Underwriting)

Asking Price "As-Is" Price "All In" Price

Cap RateProposed DebtEquityEstimated Debt ServiceCash Flow

Cash on Cash61,076

$ per Unit$0

$736 per Unit

444,462

184,649$35,651

24,000

176,569

#VALUE!

397,575

6,000,000

39,456

(20,764)24,000 $300 / Unit / Yr

Estimated Fixed Expenses

Estimated Expenses

$243 per Unit

$166,537

Estimated Utilities

Units per Acre

$0$16,000

Elec MeterRoof Style

49,803

$302 per Unit

$1,068Cable

Water & Sewer

$13 per Unit

$12,894 $161 per Unit

$4,914,6502017 Taxes

$362 per Unit

367,209

$ per Unit

Other Expenses

$765 per Unit

$362 per Unit

$61,170

$302 per Unit

$13 per Unit$1,068

Estimated Other Expenses

MODIFIED ACTUALS

$58,890$736 per Unit

173,772

186,010

(20,764)(41,528)

$166,537

PRO-FORMA

1,038,206

1,018,606

49,803

$24,186

93%

4%

$350$397,575

360

$33,131

$300

5.25%

2017 Tax Assessment$124,161

1,038,206

Est Ins per Unit per Yr

$81,620$70,822

June, 2022

Yes

Property Tax Information

2.52635Tax Rate (2017)

Est Future Tax Assessment $6,592,000

DISCLAIMER: The information contained herein has been obtained from sources that we deem reliable. We have no reason to doubt the accuracy of the information, but we have not verified it and make no guaranty, warranty or representation about it. It is your resonsibility toindependently confirm its accuracy and completeness. We have not determined whether the property complies with deed restrictions or any city licensing or ordinances including life safety compliance or if the property lies within a flood plain. THE PROSPECTIVE BUYER SHOULDCAREFULLY VERIFY EACH ITEM OF INCOME OR EXPENSE AND PERFORM OR HAVE PERFORMED ANY INSPECTIONS TO VERIFY POSSIBLE CONTAMINATION BY ASBESTOS, LEAD PAINT, MOLD OR ANY OTHER HAZARDOUS SUBSTANCES. The owner reserves the right towithdraw this listing or change the price at anytime without notice during the marketing period.

#VALUE!

$28,938

#VALUE!

$58,890

$24,774

$0

#VALUE!

$61,170

$28,938

6,000,000

397,575

$765 per Unit

MarketMarket

#VALUE!

420,462

574,144

#VALUE!

NOTES: ACTUALS: Income and Expenses calculated using owner's Owner's 12/17 trailing OS. PRO FORMA: Income is Pro Forma as Noted. Taxes were calculated using 2017 Tax Rate & Future Assessment. Insurance is estimated. Management Fees calculated as 3.5% of Gross Income, Other expenses are Estimated for the Pro Forma.

391,209

458,651

24,000

Physical Occ (Feb-18)

$19,473$243 per Unit$19,473

$124,161

52,6001.76Land Area (Acres) $574,144

Owner's 12/17 trailing OS $2,082 per Unit$1,552 per UnitTaxes

EXPENSE$849,860

Fixed Expenses

1961/2016

Insurance

Indiv

Est Future Taxes @ 80%

Date Built

Est Loan Parameters

N/A

$9,569,064

A/C Type: HVAC-Indiv$9,553,064

12/17 Expenses

1,018,606

Physical Information

Number of Units

N/ANet Rentable Area

MarketAvg Unit Size

Financial Information

80658

$6,000,000

Operating Information

Mortgage Balance

45.335

INCOME

$0

$12,894 $161 per Unit

Utilities

Total Fixed Expense

Utilities

Electricity $146 per Unit$11,655

143,634

$24,186

$11,655 $146 per Unit

2/23/2018 Groveat43rd

Page 7: BROKER'S OPINION OF VALUE · 2018. 2. 23. · BROKER'S OPINION OF VALUE 4295 San Felipe Suite 355 Houston, TX 77027 A 80 Unit Class C Multi-Family Asset 2006 W 43rd St, HOUSTON, TX

PROPERTY OVERVIEW

GROVE AT 43RD ST 2006 W 43RD ST HOUSTON, TX 77018 Keymap: 452J

Construction Quality: B+

Age: ** 1961/2016 Access Gates Park & Ride Nearby Mortgage BalanceElec Meter: Indiv Cable Ready Walk-In Closets Amortization Houston ISD $1.206700A/C Type: HVAC-Indiv Club House School Bus Pick-up P & I (per owner) Harris County $0.418010Water: RUBS Laundry Rooms Shuttle Route Type Harris County Flood Control $0.028310Wiring: Copper Mini Blinds Patios/Balconies Assumable Port of Houston Authority $0.012560Roof: Pitched Pool Monthly Escrow Harris County Hospital District $0.171100Paving: Concrete Bookshelves Origination Date Harris County Education Dept $0.005195Materials: Brick/Wood Outside Storage Due Date Houston Community College $0.100263# of Stories: 2 Ceiling Fans Interest Rate(Est) City of Houston $0.584210Parking: 110 spaces Yield MaintenanceBuildings: 7 Transfer Fee 2017 Tax Rate/$100 $2.526348Units/Acre: 45.33 2017 Tax Assessment

*In Select Units HCAD Improvement Sq.Ft. 65,000

Total 677,413$

Apr 2017 59,520$ 12 Mo Avg 62,995$ May 2017 60,883$

June 2017 62,053$

July 2017 60,774$ 9 Mo Avg 63,721$

Aug 2017 61,917$

Sept 2017 60,168$

Oct 2017* 53,622$ 6 Mo Avg 65,105$

Nov 2017* 62,752$

Dec 2017* 61,792$

Jan 2018* 63,081$ 3 Mo Avg 70,822$

Feb 2018** 70,851$

Mar 2018** 78,533$ ** Estimated per Owner

Conduit

1%+app+legal

YesYes

7/1/20178/1/2022

5.25%Yes

ACCT NO: 0845310000014AMENITIES

$6,000,00030 yr

$33,131.22

PROPERTY INFORMATION TAXING AUTHORITY - HARRIS COUNTYEXISTING MORTGAGE

$4,914,650

COLLECTIONS

PLEASE DO NOT VISIT THE SITE WITHOUT AN APPOINTMENT MADE THROUGH THE BROKER.

PROPERTY HIGHLIGHTS

** Ultra rehab in 2015-2016!Loan is locked for two years, then YM,then open 3 months prior to maturity

$-

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000

$80,000

The Grove at 43rd Apartments is a two story, garden-style, apartment community located in the Garden Oaks submarket of Houston,Texas. The asset was built in

1961. Residents enjoy ample amenities which include: mini-blinds, kitchen pantries, ceiling fans, laundry facilities, patios and balconies, walk-in closets.

In 2015 and 2016, the Owner did a "gut rehab" and took the building to the studs, and added new sheet rock, wiring, interior plumbing, thermal pane windows, black

appliances, new granite counter tops, new faux wood flooring, doors, hardware and did extensive exterior work including roofs, A/C, parking, common areas, etc. The

condition of the interiors is equivalent to new construction.

Note that the property does not presently bill for water/sewer, pest control or reserved parking, but this could be implemented to enhance cash flow. Reportedly 90%+ of

all Houston area projects bill for water. The most comparable property is the Reserve at Garden Oaks for a rent comp due to the high level rehab at the Reserve! Adding

washer/dryers at an estimated $2,500-$3,500/unit should boost revenue by $150-$175/unit/mo, per owner!

The existing conduit loan must be assumed but it is only for a 5 year term. As of 2/21/18, management reports no concessions on leases going forward!

*The owner recently changed management to Kaplan Management and collections have started to rise! Open Houses held at 9-10 am 2/23; 3/2; 3/9

Disclaimer: The information contained in this Memorandum reflects material from sources deemed to be reliable, including data such as operating statements, rent roll, etc. provided by the Owner. Notwithstanding, KETEnterprises Incorporated does not make any warranties about the information contained in this marketing package. Every prospective purchaser should verify the information and rely on his accountants or attorneys for legaland tax advice. This offer is “As-Is, Where-Is”. Answers to specific inquiries will have to be supplied by the Owner and are available upon request. Rates of return vary daily. No representations are made concerningenvironmental issues, if any.

Page 8: BROKER'S OPINION OF VALUE · 2018. 2. 23. · BROKER'S OPINION OF VALUE 4295 San Felipe Suite 355 Houston, TX 77027 A 80 Unit Class C Multi-Family Asset 2006 W 43rd St, HOUSTON, TX

GROVE AT 43RD ST 2006 W 43RD ST HOUSTON, TX 77018

Page 9: BROKER'S OPINION OF VALUE · 2018. 2. 23. · BROKER'S OPINION OF VALUE 4295 San Felipe Suite 355 Houston, TX 77027 A 80 Unit Class C Multi-Family Asset 2006 W 43rd St, HOUSTON, TX

GROVE AT 43RD ST 2006 W 43RD ST HOUSTON, TX 77018

Page 10: BROKER'S OPINION OF VALUE · 2018. 2. 23. · BROKER'S OPINION OF VALUE 4295 San Felipe Suite 355 Houston, TX 77027 A 80 Unit Class C Multi-Family Asset 2006 W 43rd St, HOUSTON, TX

GROVE AT 43RD ST 2006 W 43RD ST HOUSTON, TX 77018 Unit Mix

Unit Floor Type No. Units Sq Ft Total SqFtMarket Rent

Total Rent Rent/SF

1 Bed/1 Bath 40 545 21,800 $900 $36,000 $1.65

2 Bed/1 Bath 36 750 27,000 $1,120 $40,320 $1.49

3 Bed/1.5 Bath 4 950 3,800 $1,325 $5,300 $1.39

80 658 52,600 $1,115 $81,620 $1.55

UNIT MIX FEB 2018

TOTALS AND AVERAGESTotal Units

Average Sq. Ft.

Total Sq. Feet

Average Rent/Unit

Total Rent Average Rent/ SF

APARTMENT AMENITIES COMMUNITY AMENITIESCarports Swimming Pool w/Whirlpool Spa

Patios/Balconies Outdoor GrillCeiling Fans Perimeter FenceMini Blinds Courtyard

Walk-In Closets On-Site Clothes Care FacilityGranite Countertops Pet Friendly

Black Appliances2'' Faux Blinds

50%

45%

5%

1 Bed/1 Bath 2 Bed/1 Bath 3 Bed/1.5 Bath

UNITS BY TYPE

Page 11: BROKER'S OPINION OF VALUE · 2018. 2. 23. · BROKER'S OPINION OF VALUE 4295 San Felipe Suite 355 Houston, TX 77027 A 80 Unit Class C Multi-Family Asset 2006 W 43rd St, HOUSTON, TX

PROPERTY LOCATION

GROVE AT 43RD ST 2006 W 43RD ST HOUSTON, TX 77018

Page 12: BROKER'S OPINION OF VALUE · 2018. 2. 23. · BROKER'S OPINION OF VALUE 4295 San Felipe Suite 355 Houston, TX 77027 A 80 Unit Class C Multi-Family Asset 2006 W 43rd St, HOUSTON, TX

GROVE AT 43RD ST 2006 W 43RD ST HOUSTON, TX 77018 Aerial

Page 13: BROKER'S OPINION OF VALUE · 2018. 2. 23. · BROKER'S OPINION OF VALUE 4295 San Felipe Suite 355 Houston, TX 77027 A 80 Unit Class C Multi-Family Asset 2006 W 43rd St, HOUSTON, TX

GROVE AT 43RD ST 2006 W 43RD ST HOUSTON, TX 77018 Aerial

Page 14: BROKER'S OPINION OF VALUE · 2018. 2. 23. · BROKER'S OPINION OF VALUE 4295 San Felipe Suite 355 Houston, TX 77027 A 80 Unit Class C Multi-Family Asset 2006 W 43rd St, HOUSTON, TX

GROVE AT 43RD ST 2006 W 43RD ST HOUSTON, TX 77018 Aerial

Page 15: BROKER'S OPINION OF VALUE · 2018. 2. 23. · BROKER'S OPINION OF VALUE 4295 San Felipe Suite 355 Houston, TX 77027 A 80 Unit Class C Multi-Family Asset 2006 W 43rd St, HOUSTON, TX

RENT COMPARABLES

GROVE AT 43RD ST 2006 W 43RD ST HOUSTON, TX 77018

1 Shenandoah Woods

4250 W 34th St

2 Lamonte Park

3737 Watonga

3 Reserve at Garden Oaks

3405 N Shepherd

4 Dominion Square

1001 Pinemont

5 Montabella

4000 W 34th St

*Resident Pays E(Electric), W(Water), G(Gas)Totals/Averages Comps 1975 82% 167 911 $1,266 $1.391

Grove at 43rd

2006 W 43rd

Sub-Market Averages(Garden Oaks) 91% 19,711 826 $831 $1.006

Houston Market Avgs 89% 639,979 882 $882 $1.150

2015

RENT COMPARABLES (2018 ADS) Sorted by Avg Rent/Unit

1.445

1972 75% 176 1107 $1,506 EW 1.360

$1.5521961/2016 93% 80 658 $1,115 E

52% 135 941 $1,360 E

1.125

1971 89% 166 815 $1,372 EWG 1.683

1980 98% 128 962 $1,082 EWG2015

2012

20161975

P/SF

1977 95% 232 728 $976 N/A 1.341

Property Name Yr Blt Occ #Units Avg SF Avg Rent EWGRehabbed

2016

GROVE AT 43RD APARTMENTS

15

4

3

2

Page 16: BROKER'S OPINION OF VALUE · 2018. 2. 23. · BROKER'S OPINION OF VALUE 4295 San Felipe Suite 355 Houston, TX 77027 A 80 Unit Class C Multi-Family Asset 2006 W 43rd St, HOUSTON, TX

SALES COMPARABLES

GROVE AT 43RD ST 2006 W 43RD ST HOUSTON, TX 77018

1 Woodside Village NR

2400 Hackett

2 Reserve at Garden Oaks R

3405 N Shepherd

3 The Establishment R

2935 Winrock

4 306 Stratford

306 Stratford

5 Cameo Place

2212 DunlavyNR = not rehabbed; R = rehabbed

Totals/Averages Comps $16,186,000 130,459 $123,590 $165.78 1970 142

Grove at 43rd

2006 W 43rd

11/17 $2,700,000 11,500 $135,000 $234.78 1960 20

Pending $34,430,000 279,101 $110,000 $123.36 1971 313

11/17 $2,100,000 9,600 $140,000 $218.75 1975 15

12/16 $19,800,000 215,244 $101,020 $91.99 1972 196

1/14 $21,900,000 136,850 $131,928 $160.03 1971 166

SALES COMPARABLES (Sorted by Price/Sq. Ft.)

Property Name Date Sold Price Sq. Ft. Price/Unit Price/SF Units

Market 52,600 1961/2016 80

Built

GROVE AT 43RD APARTMENTS

1

4

3

2

5

Page 17: BROKER'S OPINION OF VALUE · 2018. 2. 23. · BROKER'S OPINION OF VALUE 4295 San Felipe Suite 355 Houston, TX 77027 A 80 Unit Class C Multi-Family Asset 2006 W 43rd St, HOUSTON, TX

HOUSTON, TEXAS2 0 1 7 A T A G L A N C E

The City of Houston, the largest city in Texas and the fourth largest city in

the United States, is located on the coastal prairies of southeast Texas and

is home to a diverse array of industries and cultures. Houston is located in

Harris County, the nation’s third most populous county. The Houston

region, officially designated as the Houston - Woodlands - Sugar Land

Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA), comprises Harris County and eight

other counties: Austin, Brazoria, Chambers, Fort Bend, Galveston, Liberty,

Montgomery, and Waller. The Houston MSA has a population of

approximately 6,656,947 according to new U.S. Census Bureau estimates.

The nine county metropolitan area is the fifth-largest metropolitan area in

the nation and covers 9,444 square miles. The most urbanized portions of

the Houston area are in Harris County, the southern part of Montgomery

County, and the eastern section of Fort Bend County. Houston is home to

the tenth largest port in the world and is in close proximity to Mexico, a

key trading partner. It has a temperate climate and an affordable cost

of living.

With a population exceeding 2.3 million, the population base includes a

wide variety of racial and ethnic groups that give Houston a rich diversity

and cosmopolitan feel.

The U.S. Bureau of Economic analysis estimates metro Houston's Gross

Domestic Product (GDP) at around $503.3 billion. If the MSA were an

independent nation, its economy would rank 23rd largest in the world,

behind Taiwan ($523.6 billion), but ahead of Sweden ($499.4 billion).

Source: Greater Houston Partnership Research, December 2016

Page 18: BROKER'S OPINION OF VALUE · 2018. 2. 23. · BROKER'S OPINION OF VALUE 4295 San Felipe Suite 355 Houston, TX 77027 A 80 Unit Class C Multi-Family Asset 2006 W 43rd St, HOUSTON, TX

Ever since its founding as a port city, Houston has been a dynamic international marketplace, attracting capital and people from all over the world. Today, Houston is the nation's fourth largest economy, and what Forbes calls "America's next great global city."

Houston’s annual trade growth is among thehighest in the nation with a total annual tradevalue growth of 84.6 percent, from $136.451million in 2005 to $251.855 million in 2015;exceeding the nation’s growth rate of 45.2percent during that same period.

Houston is already a leading exporter, and ourexports have increased 189% since 2003. In fact,Houston is the #1 metro exporter in the topenergy related industries. But recent low oilprices have slowed our rate of growth. A plan toboost goods exports can further diversify oureconomy, help existing companies grow, andcreate more jobs.

Houston's export plan will connect small andmedium-sized enterprises to growing markets,while positioning the region as a location ofchoice for global investors.

Source: Greater Houston Partnership Research, December 2016

Page 19: BROKER'S OPINION OF VALUE · 2018. 2. 23. · BROKER'S OPINION OF VALUE 4295 San Felipe Suite 355 Houston, TX 77027 A 80 Unit Class C Multi-Family Asset 2006 W 43rd St, HOUSTON, TX

Despite Setbacks Houston Still has a Strong EconomyFrom 2010 to 2014, Houston added nearly half a million jobs. This periodof phenomenal growth provided the momentum needed to sustain theregion through the early stages of the energy downturn that began atthe end of '14. As oil prices and rig counts fell through '15 and early '16,Houston's job growth began to slow. In '15, the region added 15,200jobs, and added 13,400 jobs in the 12-months ending Oct '16. In spite ofthe energy industry's worst downturn in history, Houston managed topost 12-month net job gains throughout this period.

A strong U.S. economy, momentum from the previous economic boom,robust population growth, and the $50 billion in petrochemical plantexpansions have helped offset losses in upstream energy andmanufacturing.

The goods-producing industries (mining and logging, construction, andmanufacturing) peaked at 586,300 jobs in December '14, then fell to536,400 jobs in October '16. Mining and logging, primarily oil and gasextraction and support activities, lost 25,600 jobs, a 22.9 percentdecrease. These losses rippled through the economy, triggeringdeclines in other sectors, particularly durable goods manufacturing,wholesale trade and professional and business services.

Construction, helped by the petrochemical plant expansions on theeastside of Houston, gained 6,100 jobs over the same period.

Manufacturing lost 30,400 jobs and fabricated metal products lost12,100 jobs. Construction and mining machinery lost 14,200 jobs, andcomputer and electronics lost 2,300 jobs.

The service-providing industries added 66,600 jobs between December'14 and October '16. Gains in industries that rely on population growthoffset losses in sectors tied to energy. Trade, transportation, and utilitieslost 1,400 jobs, financial activities added 3,000 jobs, and professional,scientific and technical services cut 7,700 jobs.

Healthcare and social assistance added 24,500 jobs, accommodationand food services added 27,600, and government gained 14,700 jobs.

Houston's Service-Providing Sector Continued to Add Jobs During the Energy Downturn

No Single Industry or Sector Dominates

Houston Employment

Source: Texas Workforce Commission Aug '16

The service industries account for 4 out of 5 workers in the region

The goods-producing sector accounts for nearly 1 in 5 of the region's jobs

Source: Greater Houston Partnership Research, December 2016

Page 20: BROKER'S OPINION OF VALUE · 2018. 2. 23. · BROKER'S OPINION OF VALUE 4295 San Felipe Suite 355 Houston, TX 77027 A 80 Unit Class C Multi-Family Asset 2006 W 43rd St, HOUSTON, TX

2 0 1 7 E c o n o m i c F o r e c a s t

According to an article written by Jim Gaines, a research economist at the Real EstateCenter at Texas A&M University, dated January 6, 2017, in the Houston Business Journal,"the economic downturn that began in November 2014 seems to be over." Jim Gainesstates that there is generally a two-to three-year lag between the time the energy sectorgoes into a slump and all of its impacts on the economy are felt. Houston's energy slumpunofficially began on November 27, 2014, when OPEC announced it would not adjust oilproduction levels. Gaines said that Houston should see some of the slump's final lageffects in 2016.

Gaines also noted that 2016 is poised to be the best year on-record for Houston homesales. The Greater Houston Partnership recorded that November 2016's home sales werethe best November on-record for single-family home sales.

Much of that boom can be attributed to Houston's population growth. Despite theoil slump, few residents are leaving Houston. In 2016, Houston welcomed 132,000new residents (45,600 households). Gaines also states that Houston's populationis expected to rise to 7.4 million by 2020 and should double to 14 million by 2050.

Additionally, according to an article dated January 11, 2017, by G. Scott Thomas ofBuffalo Business First, a sister paper to the Houston Business Journal, Houston is on thebrink of a population milestone. Buffalo Business First has developed a computerformula that uses 15 years of demographic data to estimate the population of anycommunity at any given moment, and according to predictions by Business First,Houston will reach 6.9 million on March 13, 2017 and 7.0 million on November 17, 2017.

What are other signals the downturn isover?

As stated by the Greater Houston Partnership's '2017 Houston Employment Forecast':

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) the U.S. benchmark for light, sweet crude, now tradesnear $50/barrel. WTI traded as low as $26 in mid-February 2016.

The number of drilling rigs working in the U.S. reached 593 in mid-November 2016. Only404 rigs, the fewest in recent history, were in the field in mid-May 2016.

After 21 months below 50, the Houston Purchasing Managers Index hit 51.1 in October2016. Readings above 50 signal pending expansion; below 50, contraction.

The region created 13,400 jobs in the 12 months ending October 2016. Annualizedgrowth had sunk as low as 3,200 jobs in May 2016.

The forecast also asserts, "the recent downturn could be compared to a tropical storm.The damage done depended on where one stood as the system passed over Houston.Those businesses closest to the energy industry felt the full fury of the storm. Those distantfrom oil and gas, to extend the metaphor a bit further - on the dry side of the storm -were buffeted but not blown away."

The forecast calls for the strongest job growth in manufacturing, wholesale trade, retailtrade, finance and insurance, real estate, business, professional and technical services,other services and government.

Renowned Real Estate Economist States: ' The Downturn Seems to be Over'

Source: Greater Houston Partnership Research, December 2016

Source: www.bizjournals.com, 1/6/16, Cara Smith

Page 21: BROKER'S OPINION OF VALUE · 2018. 2. 23. · BROKER'S OPINION OF VALUE 4295 San Felipe Suite 355 Houston, TX 77027 A 80 Unit Class C Multi-Family Asset 2006 W 43rd St, HOUSTON, TX

Since December 2014, developers have added more than 37,000 units to local inventory.Another 15,000 units are under construction, the majority scheduled to open in the next 12months. That equates to 52,000 units delivered in a market that is just beginning to recover.Over the past 12 months, Houston has absorbed about 6,500 units.

The over supply of apartments cut overall occupancy to 88.5% in January 2017, down from91.5% at its June 2015 peak. Occupancy rates below 90% favor tenants. Rents have respondedaccordingly, dropping between 2% and 6% depending on the apartment class.

The market absorbed 14,000 Class A units through the first 10 months of 2016, but thisperformance came at the expense of Class B, C and D properties, which collectively lost 7,500tenants over the same period. Traditional Class B and C tenants have been enticed into theClass A market with deposit waivers, free rent (as much as 3 months) and other enticements.Whether these tenants renew their leases remains to be seen, but is however, doubtful.

If one uses the industry rule of thumb that for every six jobs created, the market absorbs one unit,then Houston needs to add 156,000 jobs to cut the current surplus in half. Once the economyrecovers, growth should return to the long-term trend - 50,000 to 60,000 per year.

MULTI-FAMILY..... Moving Forward

Cautiously

Ignoring Class B and C Apartment Market is a 'Big Mistake'

During the economic downturn some Class B and C tenants were lured intothe Class A market with large free rent waivers and other concessions. Withthe improving conditions, a large portion of these tenants will most likely notrenew and will return to the Class B and C market. In an article in theHouston Business Journal, dated September, 28, 2016, by Paul Takahashi,Todd Marix of Holliday, Fenoglio, Fowler (HFF) observed that ignoring theClass B and C apartment market is a 'big mistake'.

As stated by the article, when Todd Marix brought Broadstone GrandParkway to market he expected to receive bids from six or seven interestedbuyers - par for the oil downturn.

The 342-unit garden apartment complex, built in 2009, had solid occupancyin the high 90th percentile but was offering two months free rent amidincreasing competition from nearby apartments in Katy.

However, Marix's multifamily investment team at HFF received a whopping18 bids for the property. The deal is still under contract but Marix said itsparked a bidding war between local and out-of-town private equity firms.

"We were shocked by the level of participation," Marix said. "We haven'tseen this kind of bidding behavior in a long time. It tells me there's someoptimism in the market."

Despite the oil slump, many opportunistic apartment buyers are returning toHouston in search of good deals, according to Marix.

Young apartment investors are also looking to get into the market during the oil slump, Marix said. These buyers are willing toaccept lower rents for one or two years and hope that Houston's apartment market will recover around 2018.

"Buyers like Advenir are relatively new to Houston, but they like the recovery aspect," Marix said. "These buyers have patientcapital and want to buy in Houston at an advantageous time. They know things will be bumpy for the next year or two but arehoping they will come out the other end with a great deal."

Most of these new Houston buyers are focusing on the city's Class B and C apartment market during the energy downturn,Marix said.

Marix estimates there are about 620,000 apartment units in Houston, of which the majority - two-thirds - are Class B and Capartments.

Source: Greater Houston Partnership Research, December 2016

Source: www.bizjournals.com, 9/28/16, Paul Takahashi

Page 22: BROKER'S OPINION OF VALUE · 2018. 2. 23. · BROKER'S OPINION OF VALUE 4295 San Felipe Suite 355 Houston, TX 77027 A 80 Unit Class C Multi-Family Asset 2006 W 43rd St, HOUSTON, TX

GROVE AT 43RD ST 2006 W 43RD ST HOUSTON, TX 77018

DEMOGRAPHICS

1 Mile Radius 3 Mile Radius 5 Mile Radius

2017 Estimated Population 18,925 50,929 129,910

2022 Projected Population 21,193 56,187 145,019

2010 Census Population 17,434 47,115 116,053

2000 Census Population 18,911 47,410 118,946

Projected Annual Growth 2017 to 2022 2.4% 2.1% 2.3%

Historical Annual Growth 2000 to 2017 - 0.4% 0.5%

2017 Median Age 33.6 36.6 35.1

2017 Estimated Households 7,706 22,007 53,220

2022 Projected Households 8,642 24,260 59,341

2010 Census Households 6,931 19,769 46,002

2000 Census Households 7,559 19,119 44,949

Projected Annual Growth 2017 to 2022 2.4% 2.0% 2.3%

Historical Annual Growth 2000 to 2017 0.1% 0.9% 1.1%

2017 Estimated White 61.7% 65.3% 58.3%

2017 Estimated Black or African American 10.8% 12.3% 18.0%

2017 Estimated Asian or Pacific Islander 1.8% 2.6% 3.0%

2017 Estimated American Indian or Native Alaskan 0.9% 0.7% 0.8%

2017 Estimated Other Races 24.8% 19.1% 20.0%

2017 Estimated Hispanic 58.9% 45.7% 47.1%

2017 Estimated Average Household Income $75,473 $93,127 $85,824

2017 Estimated Median Household Income $59,555 $75,146 $69,127

2017 Estimated Per Capita Income $30,780 $40,302 $35,226

2017 Estimated Elementary (Grade Level 0 to 8) 11.9% 8.9% 12.4%

2017 Estimated Some High School (Grade Level 9 to 11) 10.7% 8.0% 9.4%

2017 Estimated High School Graduate 28.9% 23.3% 23.8%

2017 Estimated Some College 17.0% 18.2% 16.9%

2017 Estimated Associates Degree Only 5.6% 4.9% 4.6%

2017 Estimated Bachelors Degree Only 16.2% 24.2% 20.9%

2017 Estimated Graduate Degree 9.6% 12.5% 12.0%

2017 Estimated Total Businesses 1,170 4,052 7,749

2017 Estimated Total Employees 11,466 40,829 77,713

2017 Estimated Employee Population per Business 9.8 10.1 10.0

2017 Estimated Residential Population per Business 16.2 12.6 16.8

INC

OM

EE

DU

CA

TIO

N(A

GE

25+

)B

US

INE

SS

HO

US

EH

OL

DS

RA

CE

AN

D E

TH

NIC

ITY

P

OP

UL

AT

ION

25%

5%

1%10%

59%

White  Black  Asian Other Hispanic

$75,743

$72,072

$70,000

$71,000

$72,000

$73,000

$74,000

$75,000

$76,000

$77,000

Subject Houston

41.1%

58.9%

Non‐Hispanic

Hispanic

Page 23: BROKER'S OPINION OF VALUE · 2018. 2. 23. · BROKER'S OPINION OF VALUE 4295 San Felipe Suite 355 Houston, TX 77027 A 80 Unit Class C Multi-Family Asset 2006 W 43rd St, HOUSTON, TX

GROVE AT 43RD ST 2006 W 43RD ST HOUSTON, TX 77018

Page 24: BROKER'S OPINION OF VALUE · 2018. 2. 23. · BROKER'S OPINION OF VALUE 4295 San Felipe Suite 355 Houston, TX 77027 A 80 Unit Class C Multi-Family Asset 2006 W 43rd St, HOUSTON, TX

GROVE AT 43RD ST 2006 W 43RD ST HOUSTON, TX 77018

Page 25: BROKER'S OPINION OF VALUE · 2018. 2. 23. · BROKER'S OPINION OF VALUE 4295 San Felipe Suite 355 Houston, TX 77027 A 80 Unit Class C Multi-Family Asset 2006 W 43rd St, HOUSTON, TX

GROVE AT 43RD ST 2006 W 43RD ST HOUSTON, TX 77018

Page 26: BROKER'S OPINION OF VALUE · 2018. 2. 23. · BROKER'S OPINION OF VALUE 4295 San Felipe Suite 355 Houston, TX 77027 A 80 Unit Class C Multi-Family Asset 2006 W 43rd St, HOUSTON, TX

GROVE AT 43RD ST 2006 W 43RD ST HOUSTON, TX 77018

Page 27: BROKER'S OPINION OF VALUE · 2018. 2. 23. · BROKER'S OPINION OF VALUE 4295 San Felipe Suite 355 Houston, TX 77027 A 80 Unit Class C Multi-Family Asset 2006 W 43rd St, HOUSTON, TX

A 268 UNIT CLASS "B-/C+" GARDEN APARTMENT COMMUNITY