Broker Note, Rio Tinto, 17/01/2007 (Cannacord Adams)

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    Daily Letter | 119 January 2007

    Canaccord Adams is the global capital markets group of Canaccord Cap ital Inc. (CCI : TSX|AIM)The recommendations and opinions expressed in this Investment Research accurately reflect the Investment Analysts personal,independent and objective views about any and all the Designated Investments and Relevant Issuers discussed herein. For importantinformation, please see the Important Disclosures section in the appendix of this document or visit or visithttp://www.canaccordadams.com/research/Disclosure.htm.

    Rio Tinto plc

    RIO : LSE : 25.51 HOLD Target: 26.00

    Damien Hackett [email protected]

    Nicholas Pickens [email protected]

    COMPANY STATISTICS:

    Recommendation: Hold

    12-month target price: 26.00

    Price: 25.51

    52-week Range: 23.52-33.22Market Capitalization (Million): 26,081

    EARNINGS SUMMARY:

    FYE Dec 2006E 2007E 2008ESales $USM 25,963 27,366 25,154

    EBITDA $USM 13,556 14,005 11,707

    Net profit adj. $USM 7,832 7,723 6,275

    Free cash (1) $US/sh 5.27 6.68 5.92

    EPS $US/sh 5.78 5.70 4.63

    Dividend $US/sh 0.90 0.95 1.00

    EV / EBITDA x 5.0 4.9 5.4

    PER x 8.1 9.0 11.1

    Free cash yield % 11.2 13.0 11.5

    Yield after capex % 6.8 9.2 7.8

    Dividend yield % 1.9 1.8 1.9

    EBITDA margin % 52.2 51.2 46.5

    EBIT margin % 45.4 44.3 39.0

    Gearing (2) % 1.7 -22.3 -39.7

    ROE (3) % 46.4 35.1 22.6

    ROIC (4) % 33.8 29.9 23.5

    Price to book x 3.4 2.8 2.3

    1. Operating cash flow before investment and financing.

    2. Net debt over total capital.3. Adjusted earnings pre exceptionals and goodwill over shareholder equity. 4. Adjusted net income over PP & E plus working capital.

    SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE:

    2000

    2200

    2400

    2600

    2800

    3000

    3200

    3400

    Jan-06 Mar-06 May-06 Jul-06 Sep-06 Nov-06 Jan-07

    Source: DatastreamAll amounts in unless otherwise noted.Share price data COB 18 January 2007.

    Metals and Mining -- Senior Diversifieds

    TARGET PRICE REDUCED

    EventRio Tinto will announce preliminary financial results for the full year to

    December 2006 on 1 February 2007. We expect attributable profit

    excluding exceptional items of US$7,832 million (US$5.78/share), a

    downward change of 3% following the release of a quarterly operations

    review earlier this week. We have also revised our commodity price

    forecast assumptions going forward resulting in a downgrade to our

    profit estimates for 2007 from US$6.05/share to US$5.70/share.

    Action

    We have downgraded our rating to HOLD from Buy, with a target price

    of 26.00/share (previously 36.00). We believe investors should hold

    this stock over the near term to benefit from what we see as likelysubstantial capital returns.

    Rationale

    In our view, Rio Tinto may have reached a peak in earnings in 2006

    against our revised commodity price assumptions, and we believe the

    momentum in earnings growth seen in preceding years is unlikely to be

    maintained. The stock is currently trading at 9 times earnings for

    2007E while EV is priced at 4.9 times EBITDA, well below the historical

    trading range for this company based on consensus estimates of 12-

    month forward earnings, Figure 7. Consequently, we believe the current

    share price is likely to be supported by PE expansion into a period of

    weaker earnings - we note that the stock is priced at 15 times earningsin 2009E, indicating to us that there is room for PE expansion for the

    next two years back to historical mid-cycle levels.

    Investment risks

    There are risks associated with metal prices not matching our forecasts

    and with the share price achieving our target price.

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    Daily Letter | 219 January 2007

    Full year results preview

    Rio Tinto will be announcing preliminary financial results for the full year to December

    2006 on Thursday 1 February 2007 and we have updated our earnings forecasts for the

    period, following the companys recent operations results. We expect attributable profit

    excluding exceptional items of US$7,832 million (US$5.78/share), or US$4,081million(US$3.01/share) for the half year and 2% lower than the consensus1 forecast. This

    represents a 3% downward adjustment to our previous forecast and would be a year-on-

    year increase of 58% over earnings for 12-months to December 2005.

    Figure 1: Financial summary table

    FYE Dec US$ million Jun-04 Dec-04 Jun-05 Dec-05 Jun-06 Dec-06E Jun-07E Dec-07E Jun-08E Dec-08EGroup turnover US$M 6,805 7,725 9,439 11,303 12,111 13,852 13,799 13,567 12,875 12,279

    EBITDA US$M 2,284 2,657 4,063 5,269 6,174 7,382 7,181 6,825 6,181 5,526

    EBIT (1) US$M 1,600 1,379 3,280 4,428 5,348 6,448 6,248 5,872 5,229 4,574

    Attributable profit (2) US$M 993 1,279 2,087 2,868 3,751 4,081 3,980 3,743 3,346 2,929Attributable EPS US cents 72.0 92.8 151.9 211.6 277.0 301.4 293.9 276.4 247.1 216.3

    Dividend US cents 32.0 45.0 38.5 41.5 40.0 50.0 45.0 50.0 47.5 52.0

    Reconciliation US$M

    Attributable profit (2) US$M 993 1,279 2,087 2,868 3,751 4,081 3,980 3,743 3,346 2,929

    Exceptional items US$M 618 407 78 182 45 0 0 0 0 0

    Reported profit (3) US$M 1,611 1,686 2,165 3,050 3,796 4,081 3,980 3,743 3,346 2,929

    1) Figure 2 below shows divisional contribution to EBIT and includes FX translation effect 2) excluding exceptional items. 3) including exceptionalcontributions and NML translationSource: Company data, Canaccord Adams estimates

    Looking further forward, we have also adjusted our 2007 earnings estimates downward

    based on our revised commodity price assumptions (Figure 3). We now estimate

    attributable profit for 2007 at US$7,723 million (US$5.70/share). Contributions from thevarious product sector groups as shown in Figure 2.

    Figure 2: EBIT by product sector group

    US$ million Jun-04 Dec-04 Jun-05 Dec-05 Jun-06 Dec-06E Jun-07E Dec-07E Jun-08E Dec-08EIron ore 419 468 1,126 1,661 1,491 2,211 2,283 2,259 2,002 1,776

    Energy 218 391 485 652 552 382 278 320 289 286

    Industrial minerals 166 200 228 163 223 284 275 275 275 275

    Aluminium 244 254 296 285 548 935 1,053 850 713 606

    Copper 553 669 1,176 1,678 2,588 2,542 2,257 2,095 1,849 1,557

    Diamonds 151 160 169 286 151 338 309 309 310 310

    Other operations 24 12 14 -13 17 2 10 6 8 7

    Product Group Earnings 1,775 2,154 3,494 4,712 5,570 6,694 6,463 6,115 5,446 4,816Other items -119 -687 -149 -156 -135 -146 -140 -143 -142 -142

    Exploration and evaluation -56 -88 -65 -128 -87 -100 -75 -100 -75 -100

    Rio Tinto Group EBIT 1,600 1,379 3,280 4,428 5,348 6,448 6,248 5,872 5,229 4,574Source: Company data, Canaccord Adams estimates

    1 Mean IBES consensus forecasts of ten analysts provided by Bloomberg

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    Daily Letter | 319 January 2007

    Figure 3: Key input variables

    average for the period Dec-04E Jun-05 Dec-05 Jun-06 Dec-06 Jun-07E Dec-07E Jun-08E Dec-08ERand / US$ rate 0.73 0.77 0.75 0.74 0.76 0.80 0.80 0.78 0.78

    A$ / US$ rate 134.5 151.0 182.6 277.4 335.0 253.8 246.3 232.5 205.0

    Oil price WTI US$ / bbl 417.4 427.8 463.1 627.3 617.8 637.5 662.5 637.5 612.5

    Copper price Usc / lb 80.0 83.7 88.7 115.2 118.1 122.5 112.5 105.0 100.0

    Aluminium price Usc / lb 55.3 51.5 43.7 49.3 48.3 51.3 52.5 52.5 52.5

    Thermal coal (1) US$ / t 57.2 91.1 125.0 119.5 114.0 105.0 96.0 86.6 86.6

    Coking coal (2) US$ / t 45.9 62.3 78.8 86.3 93.7 98.2 102.6 92.4 92.4

    Iron ore lump Usc / dltu 0.73 0.77 0.75 0.74 0.76 0.80 0.80 0.78 0.78

    (1) Spot price from South Africa; 2) Contract price of Goonyella brand.Source: Company data, Canaccord Adams estimates

    Production review

    This week, Rio Tinto released a fourth quarter operations review for the period ending

    December 2006.

    Iron ore production during the fourth quarter was 35 million tonnes, 2% lower compared

    with the previous quarter, primarily due to the impact of maintenance activities. Year-

    on-year production increased 7% to 132.8 million tonnes, reflecting expansions in

    response to strong global demand. We estimate the draw on inventories at Hamersley,

    Robe River and IOC in the final quarter were 2.1, 0.4 and 1.4 million tonnes respectively.

    Mined copper production increased to 209,800 tonnes during the period, 15% higher

    than the third quarter as a result of industrial action at Escondida. Grasberg also

    benefited from access to higher grades than the preceding three quarters. Year-on-year,

    total copper mined in 2006 increased by 2%, over a period that saw the average copper

    price increase by 84%.

    Refined copper production for the quarter was 29% lower than the third quarter mainly

    due to the effects of scheduled maintenance shutdown at the Kennecott Utah Copper

    smelter. Kennecott Utah also produces molybdenum and production declined by 11%

    compared with the third quarter due to lower grades and recoveries.

    Bauxite production in the fourth quarter was 10% higher than the previous quarter due

    to a high level of equipment availability and minimal plant downtime. Furthermore,

    production for the full year to December 2006 increased to record levels of 16.1 million

    tonnes. Yarwun (the renamed Comalco Alumina Refinery) reached design capacity

    during the final quarter and achieved a production record for the quarter and the year.

    Total alumina production for 2006 increased 10% to 3.2 million tonnes, while aluminium

    production declined 1% to 844,700 tonnes.

    US coal production set quarterly and annual production records as the capacity

    expansions at several mines ramped up. Production of hard coking coal declined by 12%

    compared with the third quarter, attributable to lower volumes at Kestrel from operating

    in the zone of a known fault line.

    In other business groups, titanium dioxide feedstock production increased by 12%

    compared with the previous quarter, reflecting strong demand and the successful

    completion of the expansion of the UGS plant. Uranium production declined 13% year-

    Figure 4: Group EBIT 2007E

    Fe ore

    31%

    Energy

    14%

    Ind min

    10% Diam.

    4%

    Copper

    24%

    Alum

    17%

    Source: Canaccord estimates

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    Daily Letter | 419 January 2007

    on-year, largely as a result of production disruptions in the second quarter brought about

    by heavy rains.

    In our view, this production report highlights industry supply difficulties. Generally

    production increases year-on-year were modest compared to the surge in demand seen

    through 2006. This relatively weak increase in production from one of the biggest and

    most efficient producers underscores our belief in the sustainability of some commodity

    markets. We note that in 2006, Rio Tinto delivered 11% less copper than it did five years

    ago into a global market that is now demanding around 16% more2.

    Rio Tinto also asserted that input shortages are maintaining cost pressures, especially in

    the iron ore business. We estimate full cash costs of iron ore production have risen

    steadily from US$8.70/t in the December quarter of 2003 to US$19.3/t for the December

    quarter of 2006. Currently these costs have been masked by higher prices, but we

    expect all producers will have a major task in front of them when, as we believe,

    commodity prices weaken.

    Figure 5: Key operations production report

    '000 tonnes unless specified (attributable) Dec-04 Jun-05 Dec-05 Jun-06 Dec-06 Jun-07E Dec-07E Jun-08E Dec-08EAlumina 1,201 1,489 1,474 1,633 1,616 1,737 1,737 1,737 1,737

    Aluminium 419 412 447 408 442 389 389 389 389

    Copper in concentrate 380 378 414 389 416 398 395 394 394

    Copper cathode 795 880 895 429 563 751 768 772 772

    Nickel 7,374 7,466 6,720 6,058 7,142 7,250 7,115 7,093 7,093

    Zinc in concentrate 16,635 20,689 14,947 15,531 19,632 19,363 19,381 19,386 19,387

    Iron ore (including pellets) 81,985 77,303 76,338 79,627 82,796 84,497 85,698 85,645 85,694

    Metallurgical coal 3,186 3,051 3,533 2,507 2,918 3,150 3,150 3,150 3,150

    Energy coal 290 268 292 272 282 300 300 300 300

    Crude oil and condensate. '000 bbl 2,401 2,774 2,730 2,649 2,753 2,596 2,596 2,596 2,596

    Total hydrocarbons '000 boe 725 689 673 726 664 699 699 699 699

    Diamonds '000 cts 615 649 662 697 718 640 640 640 640

    Source: Company reports, Canaccord Adams estimates

    Valuation

    In our view, Rio Tinto may have reached a peak in earnings in 2006 we are estimating

    US$7.8 billion (US$5.70/share) against our revised commodity price assumptions and

    believe the momentum in earnings growth seen in the preceding years is unlikely to be

    maintained. In our opinion, risks to the downside on our estimates are limited; only a

    period of global economic slowdown substantially greater than our forecast would result

    in a significant reduction in volumes and prices across the commodities. Conversely, we

    believe the possibility of unexpected supply disruptions in the industry may continue tooffer upside to commodity prices and earnings forecasts.

    The stock is currently trading at 9 times earnings for 2007 while EV is priced at 4.9

    times EBITDA, on our estimates. These multiples are below the low end of the historical

    trading range for this company based on our analysis of the share price against

    2 Brook Hunt figures for global copper consumption in 2001 was 14.8Mt versus 2006E of 17.8Mt.

    Production report highlights

    industry supply difficulties

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    Daily Letter | 519 January 2007

    consensus estimates of 12-month forward earnings, Figure 7. Consequently, we believe

    the current share price is likely to be supported by PE expansion into a period of weaker

    earnings we note that the stock is priced at 15 times earnings in 2009E, indicating to

    us that there is room for PE expansion for at least the next two years back to historical

    mid-cycle levels.

    To reflect the transition from mid-cycle to peak cycle, we have reduced our 12-month

    forward earnings multiple from 14 times to 10 times and 12-month forward EBITDA

    from 7.5 times to 6 times. This suggests a 12-month forward market price for the stock

    of 25.70/share.

    Consequently, we have reduced our target price for the stock from 36.00/share to26.00/share and downgraded our recommendation from Buy to HOLD.

    With a free cash yield of 13% in 2007E, we expect the company to be cash rich as it was

    last year. We therefore recommend that investors hold this stock in anticipation of

    further returns.

    Figure 7: Pricing history for Rio Tinto

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    35

    Jan-90 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06

    500

    1000

    1500

    2000

    2500

    3000

    3500

    Rio Tinto plc 12-month forward PE (LHS) Mean PE Rio Tinto plc share price in pence (RHS)

    15 year average price is 14.2x 12-month forward earnings

    Range shows + / - one standard deviation from mean PE

    14.2

    17.4

    11.1

    Source: Company reports, Datastream

    Our NPV for the stock now stands at 27.17/share based on the 1,354 million shares onissue, with cash flow discounted at 9% per annum (RFR at 4% per annum, MRP at 5%

    per annum and beta of 1.0) and with terminal growth rates across all the business of

    3.5% per annum.

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    Investment risks

    There are risks associated with the share price achieving our target price and our

    financial forecasts.

    In our opinion, risks to the downside on our estimates are limited; only a period of global

    economic slowdown substantially greater than our forecast would result in a significantreduction in volumes and prices across the commodities. Conversely, we believe the

    possibility of unexpected supply disruptions in the industry may continue to offer upside

    to commodity prices and earnings forecasts.

    In addition, metal prices may not match our forecasts; as with any mining company,

    there are operating risks involved in both underground and open pit mining operations;

    foreign currency exchange rate fluctuations will impact both the companys operating

    costs and its revenues. There are also numerous technical and environmental risks

    associated with the operation of a mining company that could have an impact both upon

    the companys valuation and our financial estimates.

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    Daily Letter | 719 January 2007

    APPENDIX: IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES

    Analyst Certification: Each authoring analyst of Canaccord Adams whose name appears on the front page of this investmentresearch hereby certifies that (i) the recommendations and opinions expressed in this investment researchaccurately reflect the authoring analysts personal, independent and objective views about any and all of thedesignated investments or relevant issuers discussed herein that are within such authoring analysts coverage

    universe and (ii) no part of the authoring analysts compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly,related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by the authoring analyst in the investmentresearch.

    Site Visit: An analyst has not visited the issuer's operations in the last 12 months.

    Price Chart:*

    * Price charts assume event 1 indicates initiation of coverage or the beginning of the measurement period.

    Distribution of Ratings:

    Global Stock Ratings(as of 1 January 2007)

    Coverage Universe IB ClientsRating # % %Buy 292 55.6% 43.2%Speculative Buy 64 12.2% 65.6%Hold 147 28.0% 30.6%Sell 22 4.2% 9.1%

    525 100.0%

    Canaccord Ratings

    System:

    BUY: The stock is expected to generate risk-adjusted returns of over 10% during the next 12 months.HOLD: The stock is expected to generate risk-adjusted returns of 0-10% during the next 12 months.SELL: The stock is expected to generate negative risk-adjusted returns during the next 12 months.Risk-adjusted return refers to the expected return in relation to the amount of risk associated with thedesignated investment or the relevant issuer.

    Risk Qualifier: SPECULATIVE: Stocks bear significantly higher risk that typically cannot be valued by normal fundamentalcriteria. Investments in the stock may result in material loss.

    Canaccord Adams Research Disclosures as of 19 January 2007Company DisclosureRio Tinto plc None

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    Daily Letter | 819 January 2007

    1 The relevant issuer currently is, or in the past 12 months was, a client of Canaccord Adams or its affiliatedcompanies. During this period, Canaccord Adams or its affiliated companies provided the following servicesto the relevant issuer:

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    Daily Letter | 919 January 2007

    revenues and general profits of Canaccord Adams. However, such authoring analysts have not received, andwill not receive, compensation that is directly based upon or linked to one or more specific CorporateFinance/Investment Banking activities, or to recommendations contained in the investment research.

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    Daily Letter | 1019 January 2007

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