2123

16th

2012

M A R C H

Sawtooth Software Conference

Orlando, Florida

-- Conjoint and Choice Analysis

- MaxDiff (Best-Worst) Measurement

- Web-Based Data Collection

- Multivariate Methods

- Market Segmentation

- Optional Tutorials for More In-Depth Learning

Optional Half-Day Tutorials: Tutorial workshops are being offered to provide opportunities for a more in-depth learning experience. These classes are offered only on Tuesday. Tutorials are optional and are an additional cost ($250). Please note that you must register separately for the tutorials.

Tuesday (8:00 - Noon) Advances in Market Segmentation Analysis

The focus of this tutorial will be on new unsupervised learning (Cluster Analysis) algorithms and models. It will begin with a short review of some well known methods while paying particular attention to the Cluster Ensemble approach.

Unsupervised methods covered will include: • K-means • PAM (Partitioning Around Medoids) • Finite Mixture Modeling • Clustering Objects on Subsets of Attributes (COSA) • Cluster Ensembles

Supervised learning techniques (e.g. CART) will also be discussed with emphasis on the relatively new and highly regarded Random Forest algorithm. In addition, Semi-Supervised Learning (SSL) algorithms, which combine information from both supervised and unsupervised learning, will be reviewed.

Finally, an illustration of effective post hoc cluster profiling, and presentation of cluster analysis results in general, will be demon-strated. Example code will be provided.

Tuesday (8:00 - Noon) Customer Satisfaction Research: Challenges and Opportunities

This tutorial begins with basic topics in Customer Satisfaction Research, including • How are customer satisfaction studies designed and analyzed? • How end users benefit from customer satisfaction studies? • How does customer satisfaction research relate to loyalty?

In many ways customer satisfaction data is the least well-behaved kind of data we as researchers will ever face; part of the presenta-tion covers ways to address vexing data problems that go beyond basic regression and correlation and PLS analyses.

The presentation concludes with some more advanced topics, including empirical tests of satisfaction rating scales and newer models for modeling customer satisfaction, like non-compensatory models of satisfaction and models using a particular maxdiff scaling with natural zero points for attribute utilities.

Tuesday (1:00 - 5:00) Advances in Market Segmentation Analysis (repeat session)

Tuesday (1:00 - 5:00) Power Tricks for SSI Web Users

Even though SSI Web is easy to begin using, there is an amazing degree of flexibility and power awaiting the adventurous and advanced user. The course will open your eyes to new possibilities to accomplish challenging tasks and impress your clients.

You’ll see how you can take on new work and problems you previously thought could not very easily be done. Some of the topics will include: Free Format questions, custom JavaScript validation, advanced constructed lists, advanced formatting options with CSS, how to search and replace text across your whole study, how to include Flash, how to build drag and drop sliders, surveys for the iPhone, and how to include audio and video into your surveys. Sample study code will be shared.

Joseph Retzer, Market Tools

Joseph Retzer, Market Tools

Keith Chrzan, Maritz Research

Optional 2-Day Workshops:

CBC Consulting Challenge Workshop(Sponsored by Survey Sampling International)

Participants will create several conjoint surveys and analyze actual respondent data using a team-oriented case study approach. A Microsoft products study will be fielded (SSI Sample) the evening after the first day, with data analyzed the second day. Each team’s final presentation will be critiqued by the instructors, including Chris Chapman of Microsoft.

Cost is $1,250.

Menu-Based Choice (MBC) Software Workshop

A new type of flexible menu-based choice questionnaire is becoming more popular over the last few years. Instead of picking one concept from available options (as in CBC), MBC tasks allow respondents to pick from zero to multiple items from a menu. The software takes a data processing and analysis process that can take experienced analysts from one to two weeks to do and compresses the timeline to 1 to 2 days. Attendees receive an evaluation copy of the software that they may use for 90 days (for non-commercial studies and evaluation purposes only).

Cost is $1,000.

Aaron Hill and Brian McEwan, Sawtooth Software,

Chris Chapman, Microsoft

Bryan Ormeand Walter Williams,

Sawtooth Software

Justin Luster, Sawtooth Software

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Monday, March 19

(7:00 – 8:00) Continental Breakfast – Workshop Attendees

(7:00 – 8:00) Conference Registration

(8:00 – 5:00) CBC Consulting Challenge Workshop

(8:00 – 5:00) Menu-Based Choice (MBC) Software Workshop

(12:00 – 1:00) Lunch – Workshop Attendees

(12:00 – 1:00) Conference Registration

(4:00 – 6:00) Conference Registration

Tuesday, March 20

(7:00 – 8:00) Continental Breakfast – Workshop & Tutorial Attendees

(7:00 – 8:30) Conference Registration

(8:00 – 5:00) CBC Consulting Challenge Workshop (continuation)

(8:00 – 5:00) Menu-Based Choice (MBC) Software Workshop (continuation)

(8:00 – 12:00) Advances in Market Segmentation Analysis – ½ day

(8:00 – 12:00) Customer Satisfaction Research: Challenges and Opportunities – ½ day

(8:00 – 12:00) CAHC Tutorial – ½ day To Be Announced

(12:00 – 1:00) Lunch – Workshop & Tutorial Attendees

(12:00 – 6:00) Conference Registration

(1:00 – 5:00) Advances in Market Segmentation Analysis (repeat session) – ½ day

(1:00 – 5:00) Power Tricks for SSI Web Users – ½ day

(1:00 – 5:00) CAHC Tutorial – ½ day To Be Announced

(6:00 – 9:00) Welcoming Reception

Event Schedule

Session 1:

(7:00 - 5:00) Conference Registration

(7:00 - 8:25) Breakfast

(8:25) Welcoming Remarks (Bryan Orme, Conference Moderator)

(8:30) Game Theory and Conjoint Analysis: Using Choice Data for Strategic Decisions

We demonstrate how choice-based conjoint (CBC) market simulations may be combined with game theory (GT) models. This approach can clarify strategic understanding, communicate CBC results more effectively, and focus clearly on business decisions. We present two cases of CBC+GT in a retail product line, and discuss considerations to conduct such analysis properly.

(9:15) Contrast Effects on Willingness to Pay: How Conjoint Design Affects Adult Day Care Preferences

We present the results of an experiment testing the impact of contrast effects on estimates of willingness to pay obtained using choice-based conjoint analysis. We tested the effect of external comparisons and pre-conditioning information on respondent preference for options of adult day care.

(10:00) Refreshment Break

Session 2:

(10:30) Optimizing Pricing of Mobile Apps with Multiple Thresholds in Anchored MaxDiff

We expand the MaxDiff threshold model to contain two thresholds. Our MaxDiff experiment compares SSI’s mobile app to other mobile apps at two price levels. We establish thresholds with two methods and examine order effects. Our survey results are tested against live behavior data and we recommend best methods of implementation.

(11:00) Continued Investigation into the Role of the ‘Anchor’ in MaxDiff and Related Tradeoff Exercises

Several researchers have recently developed methods for setting an anchor or threshold for MaxDiff. These anchoring techniques, as well as one of our own, have drawn considerable interest among our marketing-research clients. We investigate six anchored methods using survey results, and simulations. Our recommendations should be of interest to methodologists and market research professionals alike.

(11:30) Assessing Large Sets of Items Using MaxDiff Scaling: Evaluation of an Alternative Approach

We introduce an approach to MaxDiff with large item sets that is based on blocked designs and utilizes HB’s mechanism for inferring full individual parameter vectors. Results of both a simulation study and an empirical study give insights into the performance of this new approach (a) under different study settings, and (b) relative to the performance of alternative approaches suggested by Hendrix and Drucker (2007).

(12:00) Lunch

Christopher Chapman, Microsoft

Edwin Love, Western Washington University

Paul Johnson and Brent Fuller,

SSI

Jack Horne, Bob Rayner,

Reg Baker and Silvo Lenart,

Market Strategies International

Ralph Wirth and Anette Wolfrath,

GfK Marketing Sciences

David G. Bakken, Michaela Gascon

and Dan Wasserman, KJT Group

DA

Y 1 (We

dne

sda

y, Ma

rch 21)

“ ”It's the only practitioner-oriented

conference for marketing science, and Sawtooth always runs a first-class operation.

DA

Y 1

(We

dne

sda

y, M

arc

h 21

)

Session 3:

(1:30) What’s in a Label? Business Value of ‘Soft’ vs ‘Hard’ Cluster Ensembles

Cluster ensembles improve segmentations. Hard cluster ensembles, combining segment labels from multiple cluster solutions are popular. Combining soft segment membership probabilities is as simple but surprisingly less common. We assess the added business value of soft cluster ensembles and guide decision making between soft membership data and hard segment labels.

(2:00) How Low Can You Go?: Toward a Better Understanding of the Number of Choice Tasks Required for Reliable Input to Market Segmentation

CBC exercises are becoming shorter in the era of on-line panels, resulting in lower precision in HB estimates. Sample size can usually be increased to compensate. For market segmentations, this is more problematic. We hope to provide guidelines on how few tasks are required while still enabling a reliable segmentation analysis.

(2:30) ‘The Individual Choice Task Threshold’ Need for Variable Number of Choice Tasks

Too many choice tasks lead to worse data, and our research shows that the maximum or optimum number of choice tasks differs by respondent. We present an application of “individual choice task thresholds” aiming for better data and reduced interview time. We also evaluate conjoint designs with enhanced utility balance as a further step in this direction.

(3:00) Refreshment Break

Session 4:

(3:30) Taking Nothing Seriously: A Review of Approaches to Modeling the ‘None’ Option

In any form of choice study, respondents consistently understate their likelihood of not purchasing, using, or adopting a good or service. This results from both methodological and behavioral factors, and creates an array of challenges. The proposed research will examine and compare a variety of ways to measure preference for “None”.

(4:15) Translating Voice of the Customer into Conjoint Attributes and Levels

We present a voice-of-the-customer-based method for identifying conjoint attributes and levels directly from customer interviews. This approach elicits non-obvious attributes, gives voice to customer concerns, and applies Agglomerative Hierarchical Clustering (AHC) to quantify attributes and levels that easily plug into conjoint. A real-world application highlights the method and its benefits.

(5:00) General Session Ends

(5:15 - 6:15) MBC: A New Tool for Choice Modeling Clinic

(5:15 - 6:15) Online Simulator and Online MaxDiff Analysis Tools Clinic

(6:00 - 7:30) Reception

Jane Tang and Andrew Grenville,

Vision Critical

Nicole Huyghe and Anita Prinzie,

solutions-2

Kevin Karty, Affinnova

Christopher Saigal and Ely Dahan,

UCLA

Peter Kurz, TNS Infratest Forschung GmbH

Stefan Binner, bms marketing

research + strategy

“ ”This conference is by far the best in the

industry - it is down to earth and practical.

DA

Y 2 (Thursda

y, Ma

rch 22)

Session 5: (Joint Session with CAHC)

(7:00 - 5:00) Conference Registration

(7:00 - 8:30) Breakfast

(8:30) An Overview of the Design of Stated Choice Experiments

Choice modeling has been an important technique for marketing researchers for many years. In this paper, we review some of the competing methods for designing stated choice experiments. Generic and alternative-specific designs, design properties, and ways to ensure realism (for example, by adding restrictions or interactions) are discussed.

(9:00) In Defense of Imperfect Experimental Designs: Statistical Efficiency and Measurement Error in Choice-Format Conjoint Analysis

For a given sample size, efficient designs insure that researchers can minimize estimate variances. In many cases, however, measurement error may be a greater source of estimation imprecision than statistical error. This study reports the results of simulating effects of sample size and other study characteristics on model precision using resampled data from 33 conjoint studies.

(9:30) CBC Design for Practitioners: What Matters Most

Designs can be characterized as leading to greater statistical precision or more respondent precision. In the past 20 years testing various designs has demonstrated that respondent precision trumps statistical precision, suggesting that simpler, clearer designs are preferred to more complex ones. In the light of the Kuhfeld and Wurst, and Johnson presentations, I will summarize practical knowledge about designs that work.

(10:00) Refreshment Break

Session 6:

(10:30) Adaptive Best-Worst Conjoint (ABC) Analysis

Conjoint subjects choose the best and worst of four alternatives without much more effort than CBC, as Louviere and Orme showed. Our adaptive choice conjoint method utilizes best-worst full-profile questioning to instantaneously estimate utility at the individual level with 12-15 tasks. A real-world application highlights the method and its benefits.

(11:15) Maximizing Purchase Conversion by Minimizing Choice Deferral: Examining the Impact of Choice Set Design on Preference for the No-Choice Alternative

We develop a model to capture the effect of choice set design on preference for the no-choice alternative. This model allows us to simplify a consumer’s choice process by optimizing the presentation of products, thus increasing the likelihood of purchase. We illustrate the value of our model in the context of preference for hotels in an online travel marketplace.

(12:00) Lunch

F. Reed Johnson, Research Triangle Institute

Warren Kuhfeld, SAS Institute, Inc.

John Wurst, University of Georgia and Atlanta

Marketing Sciences Consulting

Ely Dahan, UCLA

Jeffrey Dotson, Vanderbilt University

Jeff Larson, Brigham Young University

Mark Ratchford, Vanderbilt University

Joel Huber, Duke University

“ ”I thought the conference struck the right

balance between practitioners and theoreticians and was impressed by the

willingness of each to learn from the other.

Optional Half-Day Tutorials: Tutorial workshops are being offered to provide opportunities for a more in-depth learning experience. These classes are offered only on Tuesday. Tutorials are optional and are an additional cost ($250). Please note that you must register separately for the tutorials.

Tuesday (8:00 - Noon) Advances in Market Segmentation Analysis

The focus of this tutorial will be on new unsupervised learning (Cluster Analysis) algorithms and models. It will begin with a short review of some well known methods while paying particular attention to the Cluster Ensemble approach.

Unsupervised methods covered will include: • K-means • PAM (Partitioning Around Medoids) • Finite Mixture Modeling • Clustering Objects on Subsets of Attributes (COSA) • Cluster Ensembles

Supervised learning techniques (e.g. CART) will also be discussed with emphasis on the relatively new and highly regarded Random Forest algorithm. In addition, Semi-Supervised Learning (SSL) algorithms, which combine information from both supervised and unsupervised learning, will be reviewed.

Finally, an illustration of effective post hoc cluster profiling, and presentation of cluster analysis results in general, will be demon-strated. Example code will be provided.

Tuesday (8:00 - Noon) Customer Satisfaction Research: Challenges and Opportunities

This tutorial begins with basic topics in Customer Satisfaction Research, including • How are customer satisfaction studies designed and analyzed? • How end users benefit from customer satisfaction studies? • How does customer satisfaction research relate to loyalty?

In many ways customer satisfaction data is the least well-behaved kind of data we as researchers will ever face; part of the presenta-tion covers ways to address vexing data problems that go beyond basic regression and correlation and PLS analyses.

The presentation concludes with some more advanced topics, including empirical tests of satisfaction rating scales and newer models for modeling customer satisfaction, like non-compensatory models of satisfaction and models using a particular maxdiff scaling with natural zero points for attribute utilities.

Tuesday (1:00 - 5:00) Advances in Market Segmentation Analysis (repeat session)

Tuesday (1:00 - 5:00) Power Tricks for SSI Web Users

Even though SSI Web is easy to begin using, there is an amazing degree of flexibility and power awaiting the adventurous and advanced user. The course will open your eyes to new possibilities to accomplish challenging tasks and impress your clients.

You’ll see how you can take on new work and problems you previously thought could not very easily be done. Some of the topics will include: Free Format questions, custom JavaScript validation, advanced constructed lists, advanced formatting options with CSS, how to search and replace text across your whole study, how to include Flash, how to build drag and drop sliders, surveys for the iPhone, and how to include audio and video into your surveys. Sample study code will be shared.

DA

Y 2

(Thu

rsd

ay,

Ma

rch

22)

Session 7:

(1:30) An Empirical Comparison of Approaches to Analyzing Menu-Based Choice Modeling Data

We empirically compare two approaches to analyzing menu-based choice modeling data on their predictive validity: a single logit-based model that predicts the performance of combinatorial alternatives using Sampling of Alternatives versus a serial cross effects model. We apply the approaches to an ad-hoc dataset to investigate similarities and differences.

(2:15) Building Expandable Volume Consumption onto a Share Only MNL Model

We describe our experiments with various attempts at extending a share only respondent level model using CBC/HB to an expandable consumption model, culminating in a new, successful model. This took the best features of other available models and gave logical results, also comparing well with actual data for two studies.

(3:00) Refreshment Break

Session 8:

(3:30) Using Respondent-Level Utilities to Create Targeted Initial Populations for Genetic Product Searches

This paper demonstrates how respondent-level utilities can be used within a genetic search to create an initial population better suited for complex product searches. To maximize applicability, we also demonstrate show the genetic search can be extended to handle multiple objectives and enforce basic constraints in the solution structure.

(4:15) Can We Improve CBC Questionnaires with Strategically-Placed Level Overlap and Appropriate ‘Screening Rule’ Questions?

We test different approaches to using respondent preferences (a priori vs. on-the-fly) to create CBC questionnaires with strategically-placed level overlap. We also investigate the elicitation and use of “unacceptable” levels. Our work builds on previous efforts at Sawtooth Software Conferences by Chrzan, Zepp, White (2010), Lattery (2009), and Johnson, Orme (2007).

(5:00) General Session Ends

(5:15-6:15) What’s New with SSI Web v8 Clinic

(5:15-6:15) Microsoft Case Study Competition Winners Clinic

(6:00-7:30) Reception

Rohit Pandey, Columbia University

John Wagner, Nielsen

Carlo Borghi, Paolo Cordella,

Kees van der Wagt and Gerard Loosschilder,

SKIM

Scott Ferguson and Callaway Turner,

North Carolina State University Joseph Donndelinger

and Mark Beltramo, General Motors Research

and Development

Kevin Lattery, Maritz Research

Bryan Orme, Sawtooth Software

“”

Increasingly, the Sawtooth Software conference has become the vehicle for

bringing academic research into an accessible format that is open to valida-

tion and critique. This conference has done more to change the research industry and the tools available to

researchers than has any other forum.

Session 9:

(7:00 - 12:00) Conference Registration

(7:00 - 8:30) Breakfast

(8:30) Being Creative in the Design: Performance of Hierarchical Bayes with Sparse Information Matrix

We present a Discrete Choice case study where the nature of the business problem forces us to be creative on generating the design. We explore the design generation process and compare Hierarchical Bayes with simple Multinomial Logit to show that the latter can be a viable option in some cases.

(9:00) Leveraging the Upper Level Models in HB for Integrated Modeling of Multiple Stakeholders and Decision Processes in Complex Market Environments

This presentation will focus on the use of the upper-level models in HB to link choices of different stakeholder groups in complex market settings. The presentation will review the conceptual framework for the integrated approach using the upper level models as well as an application to a pharmaceutical case study and suggestions on research design and analysis in practical applications.

(9:30) Modifying Bayesian Networks for Key Drivers Analysis: An Overview of Practical Improvements

By accounting for the relationships between drivers, Bayesian Networks are one of only a few methods that produce accurate measures of driver impact. However, they are vulnerable to several issues that threaten their ability to consistently perform well. We discuss these problems, and propose specific modifications to mitigate them.

(10:00) Refreshment Break

Session 10:

(10:30) Local Monopolies Arising from Fixed Costs

Many products have a two-part price where consumers are asked to make an up-front investment in a product and then purchase add-on modules for that product. This two-part pricing distorts behavior leading to significant usage of the purchased products and greater resistance to competing products. We demonstrate how to apply economic models to estimate this sticky behavior and predict purchase volumes.

(11:15) A Comparison of Auto-Recognition Techniques for Topics and Tones

An explosion of consumer-generated media coupled with advances in semantic technologies has provided new opportunities for text analytics. In this research, several auto-recognition and toning methods are used to identify comment categories and sentiments. The results from these techniques and from human coders are compared.

(12:00) Conference Adjourned

Jay Weiner, Ipsos Media-CT

Marcos Sanches, Ipsos Reid

John Howell and Greg Allenby,

Ohio State

Kurt A. Pflughoeft, Maritz Research

Felix Flory, evolve24

Brian Griner and Ian McKinnon,

Kantar Health

Mike Egner and Robby Hart,

Ipsos Open Thinking Exchange

DA

Y 3 (Frida

y, Ma

rch 23)

“ ”Best conference I have ever attended!

Great mix of presentations and awesome tutorials. Learned a ton!

March 21-23Orlando, Florida

Conference RegistrationVisit www.sawtoothsoftware.com/conference

to complete your conference registration.Questions? Phone +1 801-477-4700

Hotel InformationThe conference will be held March 19-23, 2012, at Disney’s BoardWalk Inn, 2101 Epcot Resorts Boulevard, Lake Buena Vista, FL 32830. In order to get the special Sawtooth Software room rate of $205, call 407-939-4686 to make your hotel reservation before Friday, February 24, 2012. Be sure to mention that you are with Sawtooth Software to get the reduced rate (as long as space is available). To make your reservation online, go to http://www.disneyurl.com/Sawtooth

American Disability Act (ADA)Sawtooth Software is committed to providing equal access to our meetings for all attendees. If you are an attendee with a disability and require meeting room/program accommodations (wheelchair access, hearing assistance, etc.), please contact us at +1 801-477-4700 and a member of our staff will ensure that appropriate access arrangements are made.

If you have specific disability-related needs for your hotel sleeping room, please be sure to communicate those needs directly to the hotel when you make your reservation. In an effort to provide the highest quality of service to all attendees, we require that details of all access requests be communicated to our office at least 14 days in advance of the beginning of the meeting.

Conference RegistrationVisit www.sawtoothsoftware.com/conference to complete your registration. Your registration for the conference, workshop and/or tutorials is not considered complete until payment has been received by Sawtooth Software, Inc.

Cancellation charges are: $100.00 if cancellation is made before February 19, 2012. $200.00 if cancellation is made on or after February 19, 2012. Full fee if cancellation is made after March 12, 2012.

Substitutions of registered attendees may be made up to the start of the general session on Wednesday.

Registration (all prices in $US): Registration for the conference session: $1,050 ($1,200 if payment received after January 23, 2012). Optional half-day tutorials: $250 each (add $25 each if payment received after January 23, 2012).

Optional 2-day Workshops:CBC Consulting Challenge: $1,250 ($1,350 if payment received after January 23, 2012)MBC: $1,000

Sawtooth Software, Inc.1457 East 840 NorthOrem, UT 84097-5486

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