Broadband Wireless World Forum February 19,2001 George Wozencraft A Global Leader in Telecom...

Broadband Wireless World Forum

February 19,2001February 19,2001

George WozencraftGeorge Wozencraft

A Global Leader in Telecom Outsourcing TMA Global Leader in Telecom Outsourcing TM

WFI Confidential & Proprietaryhttp://www.wfinet.com

Without integrated expertise across the broadband

spectrum...

...target markets are not reached - and value cannot be

maximized

CompetitionCompetition

TechnologyTechnology

Services and ContentServices and Content

Target Subscriber BaseTarget Subscriber Base

Coordinating the EffortCoordinating the Effort


Capital efficiency

Modularity

FiberFiber

xxDSLDSL

SatelliteSatellite

Fixed WirelessFixed Wireless

(ISM, UNII, (ISM, UNII, MMDS, LMDS)MMDS, LMDS)

ResidentialResidential SOHOSOHO BusinessBusiness

CableCable

Success will depend on location and the economic availability of competitive alternatives

Created exclusively for data communications in a broadband world, fixed wireless offers numerous advantages, including:

Speed to marketHigh capacity

Positioning Fixed WirelessPositioning Fixed Wireless


A Systematic Approach Links Key Elements for More Meaningful Results

Dimensioning Wireless Networks is a Complex Undertaking

Market Definition:Market Definition:

Market Segmentation Analysis

Bandwidth Demand Modeling

Service Offerings Analysis

Competitive Analysis

Target Area Analysis

Market Segmentation Analysis

Bandwidth Demand Modeling



Target Area Analysis

Network Design:Network Design:

Technology Selection

Link Budget

Cell Radius

Capacity

Access Network

Core Network

Transport

Ring Design

Site Acq. / Pre-qualification

Technology Selection

Link Budget

Cell Radius

Capacity

Access Network

Core Network

Transport

Ring Design

Site Acq. / Pre-qualification

Business Plan:Business Plan:

CapEx Planning

OpEx Planning

Revenue Projections

CapEx Planning

OpEx Planning

Revenue Projections

OverviewOverview


Market Analysis - Customer Segmentation

Residential Segmentation: May include multiple variables (household income, size,

composition, etc.) Segmentation linked to block group (locale)

Business Segmentation: May include multiple variables (SIC, estimated bandwidth

demand, # of employees, revenues, etc.) Segmentation linked to block group or specific buildings

Penetration Estimates developed by: Customer segment Service requirement Locale (block group or building)


Residential Segmentation - Sample MapSan Diego, CA


Business Segmentation - Sample MapSan Diego, CA



Identify potential types of services by segment

Residential Services Segmentation by access speed, other variables Potential enhanced services

Business Services Standard offers (internet access, e-mail accounts, etc.) Access speed Value-added services (web-hosting, ASP, etc.)

Services drive network requirements

Bandwidth requirements vary depending upon services offered

Estimated bandwidth demand per subscriber drives link budgets, cell coverage, hub design



Identify presence and location of: Estimated DSL coverage at street level Known fiber Probable T1 / T3

Map projected bandwidth requirements Bandwidth requirements located down to building and parcel

level

Overlay bandwidth requirements alongside competitive alternatives Identify areas where competitive alternatives exist Identify potentially exploitable gaps in competitive service

offerings


Competitive Presence & Bandwidth Demand


Demand Modeling

Service offerings and QoS differentiate broadband players -- coverage is secondary Bandwidth requirements

– project by segment / SIC, subscriber type, service offer, QoS

– project down to the parcel and / or individual building level

Network design must account for growth– number of subscribers

– bandwidth growth per subscriber, over time

Broadband network design should be modular Target areas of highest potential demand first Balance target customer bandwidth demand with overall market

penetration

Prioritize Capacity over Coverage


Market-level Target Areas


Local Target Areas with Competitive and Bandwidth Demand Overlays

WFI Confidential & Proprietaryhttp://www.wfinet.com MDU/MTU

WAP

ISM/UNII/MMDS

• Wireline• Fixed Wireless B/H

Single FamilyHigh-Use

Residential

Small to Medium

Business

Up to 1.5 Mbps

W-LAN

Micro-node

Micro-node

802.11(b)

TECHNOLOGY & TYPES OF SUBSCRIBER UNITS

LAN Hub

W-LAN

Single User:Peek User Demand < 15 Mbps

ISM/MMDSLMDS

MMDS/ISM

ISM: 3-11MbpsUNII: ~20 MbpsMMDS: ~20 Mbps

ISM: 3-11Mbps

ISM: 3-11Mbps

LMDS: ~34-38 Mbps MMDS: ~20 Mbps

MMDS: ~20 Mbps

ISM/

UNII/

MMDS

Medium to Large Businesses

Network ArchitectureNetwork Architecture


Vendor Selection and RFP ProcessVendor Selection and RFP Process

Technical Considerations Spectrum Capacity Reliability Standards

Operational Capabilities Time-to-Market / Availability Volume Capabilities

Vendor Financing Availability Terms

RFP Process is a Key Element


BENCHMARK FIXED WIRELESS PROJECTIONS METRICS

Bandwidth Demand/ Building

Target Subscribers/

BuildingBuilding

Penetration

In-Building Subscriber

Penetration1

Annual Increase in Target Buildings

(Yrs. 1-5)

Monthly Target Subscriber Revenue

PTP >10 Mbps 1-6 5% - 15% 40% - 45% 30% $1,500 - $2,000

PMP2 <10 Mbps 1-10 5% - 25% 30% - 55% 20% $60 - $400

MicroNode 1-2 Mbps 1-5 N/A 5% - 10% 10% $60-$100

Notes: 1 - Applicable for buildings with more than one potential subscriber2 - Deployed as a residential or business solution

Selecting the Right TechnologySelecting the Right Technology


Fixed wireless forecasts consider:

Potential service offerings and pricing Revenue and EBITDA projections Technology costs Operating expenses Core network installation and expenses Capital expenditures All pertinent income statement, cash flow, and balance sheet

issues

Research Align Strategic

Objectives

Invest Recognize Return

Value/Share NPVIRR

Thorough projections foster successful partnerships and accelerate progress

Critical Analysis Speeds SuccessCritical Analysis Speeds Success


Market AnalysisTechnical Assessment Network Design and Projections

Business Plan

Objective

Tie together elements completed in technical assessment, market analysis, and technical designs and financial projections

Benefits

Serves as an internal road map as well as a guidebook for assembling pertinent information for parties new to the Company and/or the fixed wireless business

Increase speed to market, springboard to deployment and/or expansion

The Business PlanThe Business Plan


Summary

. . . manages the complexity and leads to more favorable results.

Dimensioning wireless networks is a complex

undertaking.

Market

Technical

Design

Financial

MarketTechnical

DesignFinancial

Linking the key elements . . .

The Business of Making Wireless Work

A Global Leader in Telecom Outsourcing TMA Global Leader in Telecom Outsourcing TM

Broadband Wireless World Forum February 19,2001 George Wozencraft A Global Leader in Telecom...

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