Broadband for Development in East Pacific - GSMA are investing in ... for direct community...
Transcript of Broadband for Development in East Pacific - GSMA are investing in ... for direct community...
GSMA Mobile Asia Expo: Public Policy Forum on Market Drivers to Encourage Mobile Broadband Investment in Asia Pacific, Shanghai, June 21, 2012Natasha Beschorner, The World Bank. www.worldbank.org/ict
Broadband for Development in East Asia & Pacific
East Asia & Pacific: Extremes of Connectivity
Korea, 2012ICT and knowledge‐driven, urbanized economyLeader in e‐government, ICT in education90% broadband Internet accessFast, cheap, “ubiquitous” ICT
Kiribati, 2012Subsistence, aid and transfer‐dependent economyLimited or no online services14 percent teledensity, 1% Internet; <0.5 % broadband S. Tarawa + Outer Islands‐dispersed population
Why does ICT, particularly broadband Internet, matter for development in this region?
Impact on GDP of an increase of 10 percent in broadband penetration
0.90%
1.21%
1.10%
0.60%
0.24%
1.50%
1.38 %
0.70%
0.26%
0.00% 0.50% 1.00% 1.50%
Czernich et al. ++
Qiang & Rossotto +
Analysis Mason ***
McKinsey (average studies) **
Katz *
Minimum MaximumSource: Katz 2010; Analysis Mason 2010; McKinsey 2010; Qiang & Rossotto 2009, and; Czernich et al. 2009.Notes:* Only includes Germany; ** Average of five country studies, including United Kingdom, Australia, New Zealand, Malaysia and a Middle Eastern country, from various sources 2003 and 2004, and Qiang and Rossotto 2009 study; *** Limited to mobile broadband impact in India; + Various countries, upper range applies to developing countries and lower range to developed countries; ++ Sample of 20 OECD countries.
Source: Katz 2009, citing Crandall el al. (2003), Katz et al. (2008), Atkinson et al. (2009), Katz et al. (2009a), Libenau et al. (2009) and Katz et al. (2009b). Note: Type I (Direct + Indirect)/Direct; Type II (Direct + Indirect + Induced)/Direct
Estimated broadband employmentcreation multipliers
Study Year Scope Type I Type II
Network Effects
Crandall et al. 2003 US … 2.17 … Katz et al. 2008 Switzerland 1.4 … … Atkinson et al. 2009 US … 3.60 1.17 Katz et al. 2009a US 1.83 3.43 … Libenau et al. 2009 UK … 2.76 … Katz et al. 2009b Germany 1.45 1.93 …
10 percent broadband penetration increases annual GDP growth by 0.24‐1.5 percentage points, and creates 1.5 to 4.5 indirect jobs for each direct job created
Broadband Internet: Economic Benefits
Broadband: Catalytic Public Investment to Foster Growth
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Broadband spending in stimulus packagesDeveloped and developing countries are investing in broadband as a platform for economic growth
• Stimulus packages used broadband as a source of long‐term growth
• Colombia and Brazil have launched strong broadband infrastructure plans
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0%
Australia
Finland
Spain
Japan
UnitedStates
Canada 27.1
789.0
375.0
14.6
30.0
2.65
US$bn
Source: “Broadband Infrastructure Investment in Stimulus Packages: Relevance for Developing Countries” , Christine Zhen-Wei Qiang, The World Bank, May 2009
5Source: Rossotto, La Cava, Paradi‐Guilford
In India and the Philippines, most of BPO jobs go to youth and 60% of jobs go to women
The virtual economy provides both formal and informal job opportunities, at low and high wage levels. It opens labor markets by linking labor supply to regional or global demand.
Business Process Outsourcing & Information‐Enabled Services
Supply Chain Management
Health Financing
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Treatment Adherence / Appointment Reminders
Data Collection / Disease Surveillance
Health Information Systems & Support Tools
for Health Workers
Disease Prevention and Health Promotion
Emergency Medical Response Systems
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2
3
4
5
6
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Emergency response tools , including creation of EMR via mobile phones, and ambulance services whose reach is extended with mobile usage in remote areas
Collection and analysis of patient data, particularly at clinics or related to call centers that are used to triage services and treatment; information to help health worker prioritization.
Use of smart‐cards, vouchers, insurance and lending for health services linked to mobile platforms (e.g., m‐Pesa) or otherwise enabled using mobile
Usage of mobile handheld devices to collect data remotely; use of remote diagnostic tools for disease surveillance and treatment; civic participation in reporting outbreaks and disease information
Management of inventory and supply chain steps by mobile tracking and communication; includes advocacy informed by supply chain information
Use of mobile and SMS‐based health information and education to inform individual patients of preventive care and treatment
Use of messages and voice to communicate treatment and procedural reminders to patients (e.g., automated SMS reminders to patients on chronic medication)
ICT in Health: Selected Applications
Checkmyschool.org: ICT‐enabled education service delivery monitoring in the Philippines
• Tracking more than 8,500 of country’s 44,000 public schools
• More than 350 volunteer information intermediaries (“infomediaries”) for direct community engagement
• Teachers, parents, students send SMS or go to checkmyschool.org to report issues about quality of education service.
• Facebook, email, and Twitter are additional channels for reporting.
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ICT for Education Monitoring
Source: http://www.checkmyschool.org/, http://wbi.worldbank.org/wbi/stories/check‐my‐school‐improve‐my‐school
Rural Income‐Generation
Farmer information service‐Indonesia
www.epetani.deptan.go.id
Micro‐Work, via mobile or Internet
ICT Development: Conceptual Framework
1010
Optimal industry structure, privatization, PPPs, and competition policy
Promotion and development of new technologies, services, infrastructure and ICT’s
Organization of sector stakeholders – separation of Policy, Regulation, and Operations
Human ResourceDevelopment
Sector Promotion /Development
Sector Organization
National ICT
SectorPolicy
RegulatoryFramework
Market Liberalization
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44
55
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Establishment of legal structure, independent regulatory authority, and fundamental regulations
Capacity building, training, placement and outsourcing, and employment growth
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East Asia & Pacific: Fixed broadband penetration (%)
9.5%
7.3% 7.1%
4.6% 4.2%
3% 2.7%2.6%
1.9% 0.96%0.79%
0123456789
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Source: ITU, Telegeography 2011
East Asia & Pacific: Fixed broadband tariffs US$/month
$171
$140 $140
$99
$61 $54 $47
$22 $22 $22 $20 $19 $18 $18 $10
020406080
100120140160180
Source: ITU, Telegeography 2011
East Asia & Pacific: Mobile Broadband
Sources: ITU, Telegeography 2011
109% 107%97%
89%81%
50%
17% 15% 15%10% 8% 7% 5%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
Mobile Broadband per 100 inhabitants (Dec. 2011)
EAP Mobile Broadband Potential
Sources: ITU, Telegeography 2011
166%155%153%
127%127%111%107%104%103%99% 95%
73% 73%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
180%
Mobile Telephony per 100 inhabitants (Dec. 2011)
95% 93%88% 85% 85%
63%56%
50%
19%11%
2% 0% 0%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Mobile broadband Gap (adjusted, Dec. 2011)
Broadband access gaps
• Backbone Networks (terrestrial)– Insufficient international/regional backbone– Limited domestic backbone
• Access Networks (3G, 4G, LTE, WiMAX)– Extension beyond major population centres
• Access Devices/Points– Affordability
• Content– Relevance, scale (individual, institutional)
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Affordability of Broadband (USD)
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0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900
Indonesia
India
Pakistan
Nepal
Bhutan
Sri Lanka
Thailand
Maldives
Philippines
Afghanistan
annual cost cheapest fixedunlimited fixed broadband plan(min 256kbps)
annual cost cheapest limitedmobile broadband plan
Source: LirneAsia, 2011
Addressing the Broadband Access GapsRequires combination of actions by Governments…• Policy reforms, e.g. national broadband policy• Regulation, including: spectrum, licensing, open
access, infrastructure‐sharing• Subsidization of supply (catalytic funding, private‐
public partnerships)• Demand stimulation/Demand aggregation:
– Promoting ICT in Education programs (school broadband access, digital educational materials).
– Adopting ICT for health service delivery, monitoring– Business support services (national, local level): e.g.
online permits, licenses, land administration– E‐procurement: informational and/or transactional– Trade facilitation services e.g. customs clearances,
quarantine, other certifications…and private investors (financing, innovation)
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International Examples
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• Insert diagramApproach Country examples
1 Competitive tender &/or Government initiative to build new backbone &/or access infrastructure, including use of universal services funds or similar
Canada, Chile, India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Singapore, Malaysia, other USF countries
2 Create / Underwrite Demand Malaysia, Singapore, OECD countries
3 Stimulate Private Demand in the ICT Sector – e.g., PC initiatives, industry & educational initiatives, local services
Korea, China, Egypt, Thailand, OECD countries
4 Regulatory Reform, liberalisation, competitive fixed & unified licensing, creative spectrum policies
Pakistan, India, S. Africa, Chile, Brazil, Peru, New Zealand, Germany, UK, USA, some ASEAN
5 Broadband investments as part of Economic Stimulus packages
USA, UK, Canada, Japan, Finland, Singapore, Korea, Australia
>>These approaches can be combined
20112007 submarine cables
ImplementedCommitted FY07‐10Committed FY11 and in Preparation
Africa Regional Connectivity
ACE submarine cable is a unique opportunity for international connectivity for least connected countries in West and central Africa. Through World Bank support countries without or with limited access to global optical fiber network are now plugged in to the information age
•17,000 km from South Africa to France, connecting 23 countries for a total cost of US $700 million• A private sector led consortium•Due to enter commercial service in the first half of 2012
Through West Africa Connectivity Program (WARCIP) and Central Africa Backbone (CAB), the World Bank in supporting 5 countries to gain access to ACE submarine cable
• Liberia‐ SRL and STP approved in January 2011),• Guinea and The Gambia approved in June 2011) • Gabon (expected in December 2011).
Based on PPP framework and open access principles, The ACE projects will change the communications landscape of participating countries
•Reduction of cost of communications•Improved access to broadband services•Creating opport nities to capitali e on the transformati e po er of
Africa Coast to Europe Cable (ACE)
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Significant improvement in ICT infrastructure in the region, but gaps remain:• National level: little investment in
broadband networks beyond main urban centers, especially in the form of fiber backbone
• Regional Level: Inadequate connectivity between countries
• International level: Most countries served by only one alternative international cable
• Phase 1: Grenada, St. Lucia, Dominican Republic, Haiti (possibly)
missing linkmissing links
Caribbean Regional Connectivity
Caribbean Governments realize benefits of investing in ICT for economic growth and diversification, employment generation, competitiveness, resilience to natural disasters and overall regional integration
Pacific Regional Connectivity
PNG
Palau
Marshall Is.
Solomon Is.
Kiribati
Vanuatu FijiTonga
Samoa
French Polynesia
New Caledonia
rNew Zealand
Hawaii
Wallis
Guam
Southern CrossHonotuacable
ASH cabe
Gondwana
AJC
PACRIM West
PPC1
Legend
Connected country
Non connected country
Financed & launched project
Financing phase
WB study currently underway
Private project seeking to mobilize funding
Existing submarine cables
FS MicronesiaHantru‐1 cable
• Extreme isolation of region, high costs, small markets• Successful telecoms liberalization in most countries, boosting mobile access, improving regulatory environment.• Growing demand for bandwidth justifies investments• Internet access the main challenge; constrained largely by high international bandwidth costs (US$2000‐3600
Mbps/mo.)