Britain in 2010:Retrospective Reflections

Ben R. MartinSPRU – Science and Technology Policy Research,

University of SussexB.Martin@sussex.ac.uk

Invited Presentation at the Policy Studies Institute Workshop on ‘Back to the Future: Assessing Britain in 2010’, held

at the Royal Society of Arts, London, 12 May 2010

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Introduction

• Set Britain in 2010 in wider historical context

• Focus more on technology and technological forecasting

• Impact and significance?

• Conclusions

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Historical background• 1950s – origins of (technological) forecasting

• US – DoD, RAND, Hudson Institute• France – Gaston Berger – La Prospective• Development of basic tools – e.g. scenarios, Delphi etc.

• 1960s – spread to• academic community

emergence of ‘futures’ community establishment of journals, conferences etc.

• other countries e.g. UK – The World in 1984 (New Scientist, 1964)

• companies e.g. General Electric, Shell (scenarios)

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Historical background• 1970s – challenges

• The Limits to Growth (1972) Application of computers and systems modelling World’s resources running out fast so future growth limited Fierce debate (e.g. SPRU critique)

• Failure to foresee 1973 oil crisis crisis of confidence in forecasting

• Japan • Large forecasting exercises (e.g. STA 30-year forecasts)• Emphasis on process and wide-scale involvement (cf.

earlier reliance on ‘experts’) – ‘5 Cs’ process benefits• Use by both government and industry• Beginnings of shift from forecasting to ‘foresight’

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The UK context• 1983 – ACARD & Cabinet Office

• How to identify exploitable areas of science?• SPRU study – ‘Project Foresight’

Survey of 4 countries – F, G, J and US Quite extensive use of forecasting in private sector & in Japan Shift from forecasting to ‘foresight’ Learn from international experiences & set up pilot exercise in UK But political circumstances not right! Little immediate impact

• Late 1980s – upsurge of interest in forecasting in UK Cabinet Office & ACOST – technology matrices, Committee on

Emerging Technologies CEST – better/faster exploitation of S&T by companies DTI – Forward Looks, IT Futures Study DoE – 1986 Appraisal Companies – various prospective analyses

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Britain in 2010• Approach

• “problem-oriented … empirical and pragmatic”• “rely mainly on information already available”

• Focus on S&T component• Drew on articles in newspapers, popular sc journals etc.• Developments in new technologies – e.g. IT, biotech• General issues – e.g. convergence between technologies,

rapid pace of change, constraints on tech exploitation• Effects of S&T on sectors (e.g. agric, mfg, households)• Implications

Successful exploitation of tech’y associated with effective R&D Specialist skills crucial Gov’t regulation & intervention often vital (e.g. telecomms)

• Predictions stand up reasonably well 20 years on!

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Impact and significance• Relatively few citations (6 in WoS, 16 in GS)• But part of resurgence of interest in forecasting in UK• Reflected the shift from forecasting to foresight

“what is involved is not predicting a future that is fixed, but making possible better-informed choices so that the future can be made better than it would have been otherwise”

• Picked up in 1993 SPRU Report to OST, which recommended UK establish a Foresight Programme

• Helped make wider political climate more receptive to benefits of forecasting

• Hence contributed to OST & Waldegrave decision to launch Technology Foresight Programme in 1993

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Conclusions• Forecasting or ‘foresight’ now an established tool in

government and industry• Britain in 2010

• part of renewed interest in forecasting in early ’90s• reflected fundamental shift from forecasting to ‘foresight’• helped prepare ground for OST launch of TFP

• Impact of research on policy? Need • ‘market research’ to identify opportunity (Carpe diem)• clear ‘demand-pull’ as well as ‘science-push’• marketing, even missionary work to articulate demand• adequate ‘absorptive capacity’ in host• ‘product champion’• perseverance and a thick skin!

• Cf. literature on innovation and entrepreneurs

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Reference

• B.R. Martin, ‘Foresight in science and technology: on the origins and importance of terminology’, Special Issue of Technological Forecasting and Social Change on ‘Strategic Foresight’, edited by Joseph Coates, Michel Godet and Philippe Durance (forthcoming)