Bringing the Future to the Present: Pre-Adapting Your Organization to What Happens After What Comes...
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[email protected] Bringing the Future to the Present: Pre-Adapting Your Organization to What Happens After What Comes Next Presented By: Thornton May Futurist Module One
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Module One. Bringing the Future to the Present: Pre-Adapting Your Organization to What Happens After What Comes Next. Presented By: Thornton May Futurist. I Am A Futurist!. 2004 + . Aural Rorschach Test. “What Is the First Thing That Leaps To Mind When You Hear the Phrase: - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Bringing the Future to the Present:Pre-Adapting Your Organization to
What Happens After What Comes Next
Presented By:Thornton May
Futurist
Module One
“What Is the First Thing That Leaps To Mind When You Hear the
Phrase:
‘Futurist’?
Aural Rorschach Test
What Don’t ‘Working’ Futurists Do?
What We Don’t Do: tell ‘fortunes’ [Prophecy is a habit of fools”]don’t write ‘best sellers’ [most books are obsolete before they hit the shelves]don’t only ‘do’ the rubber chicken circuitmindlessly spit out statistics with no interpretationdon’t talk about things or issues we know nothing about [the seagull thing]
What Do ‘Working’ Futurists Do?
1. We document ‘linearities’ [trends]
Where Have We Been?Where Are We Today?Where Are We Going? Future of…
Consumer Behavior
Work
Wealth Management
Government Regulation
Health Care
Education
War
Technology
2. We analyze specific end points We are “Temporal Travel Agents” Just as historical novelists [e.g., Leo Tolstoy] bring to life the places of the past,
Futurists bring to life the places of the future
What Do ‘Working’ Futurists Do?
3. We test drive potential products, processes and people
4. We document skills sets and minds sets critical for success in the future
Four Techniques for Futuring
Tracing Linearities
Deja Viewing
Bringing the Future to the Present
Experience Hitch-Hiking
Deja Viewing
Deja Viewing, a technique frequently used to craft insight-producing,
behavior-changing scenarios of what lies ahead [and what actions should be taken], involves looking intensely
at the attributes of the current period and asking,
‘Have we experienced
anything like this before?’
Two Deja Views EmergedThe post-Sputnik 1960s – the launch of the Russian satellite October 4, 1957 shook a fundamental and almost universally held belief that Americans were and would always be significantly ahead of the Soviets is ALL aspects of science and technology. The universally examined and widely adopted practice of outsourcing higher end IT work similarly has shaken the belief that America and Americans would always lead the world of computer technology.
The first big management consulting fad - ‘scientific management’ [late 19th and early 20th century] - Frederick Taylor synthesized a program designed to assist management reduce waste through the careful study of work and adoption of standardized work practices. The processes of IT are being closely studied with an eye toward simplification, standardization and significant improvement in productivity.
Bringing the Future to the PresentGo to a future point in time and
paint a picture of what you want to happen.
Bringing the Future to the Present
Famous Example ofBringing the Future to the Present
During a joint session of Congress on May 25, 1961, President Kennedy went out a decade and saw an American on the
moon.
Bringing the Future to the Present
Before we can Bring the Future to the Present
We have to develop a rudimentary capability in
‘technology linearity.’
20 Years Studying How Organizations Make DecisionsReveal Three Different Kinds of Futures
2.The “Oh S_ _ _!” Future That Happens to You
1.The Future That Is A Predictable Linear Extrapolation
of the World We Live In Today
3.The Future We Create
All of our ‘Nexts’ Will Be A Blended Portfolio of These Kinds of Futures
‘Linearities’the ‘school figures’of Futuring
Piet MondrianRhythm of Black Linesc. 1935/42
Where we have been?
Where we are today?
Where we are going?
“May-san,
Ware-ware mondai ga arimasu yo!”
Story
Linearities Head-Set Exercise
In your groups,
please divide the years
1987 through 2017
into
‘computational eras’.
[no less than 2, no more than 6]
Head Set Exercise
What Patterns/Trends [if any]
do you think
manifested themselves
in the responses of hundreds of executives?
Head-Set Exercise
Do you suppose the hundreds of senior executives participating in this exercise tended to spend more time
talking about:
The Past or the Future?
The Gadget or the Behaviors enabled/required by the Gadget?
The Cost or the Value?
General Understanding of How IT works?
What was happening inside the enterprise or outside the enterprise?
Base Case Outputs: Computational Eras Exercise
MainframeSource: Thornton May, The New Mental Landscape: A Forensic Analysis of ‘C’ Level Thinking About Information Technology
Personal Computing
Client Server
InternetEnterprise Software
NOW!
???A.M.O.
‘Linearities’ the ‘school figures’ of Futuring
Management teams have real problems figuring out how longs line last.
When you hear the words,
technology imaginationWhat comes to mind?
technology imaginationIs a business process that has to be managed, measured and very
much improved upon.
Technology imagination is the process that tells us what we want technology to do for us.
Short Term Technology Imagination = “Alignment”
Longer Term Technology Imagination = “Vision”
In the Immediate Future, We Face A Crisis of Technology Imagination
The tech program at Camp Wing is run by a Waltham nonprofit called WiredWoods. The goal is to get campers interested in using computers
creatively -- rather than just surfing the Web and dashing off instant messages.
''We're careful to make sure it doesn't feel like school.'‘
There aren't any lectures in the WiredWoods cabin -- only projects to work on, and four adult ''project specialists'' to help out when campers have questions.
''When we started this in 2001, we were responding to a particular problem,'' Deninger says. ''There were computers everywhere, but we couldn't get kids to want to do anything other than sit there and surf the Web. And surfing the Web
is a lot like watching TV -- it's passive. So we try to catalyze their interest in creating, rather than just consuming.''
Scott Kirsner, “Technology fun comes to summer camp,” New York Times (7/21/2003).
The thought processes of
Thought Leadersinside many companies
regarding information technology
are in most casestragically flawed
‘C’ LevelIT Landscape
BadNews
The Mixed Marbles Exercise
20 from Blue Bin to Red Bin- then 20 from Red Bin to Blue Bin. At the end of 3 Round Trips, which container has more of the ‘alien’ color in it?
Red Bin Blue Bin
1000 Red Marbles 1000 Blue Marbles
One of the Key Outputs of Any Strategic Planning Initiative
Document widely held assumptions regarding: “how longs line last.”
[e.g., what changes&what stays the same?]
Futuring is All About Determining How Long Do Things/Should Things Stay the Same?
SiteSite
StructureStructureSkinSkinServicesServicesSpace PlanSpace PlanStuffStuff
How Buildings Learn,1994
20 years or so20 years or so
30 to 300 years30 to 300 years
7- 15 years7- 15 years
3 years or so3 years or so
daily / monthlydaily / monthly
The rebuilding of American cities, for example, involves a 35 year cycle. The expansion of medical services involves 15 year planning [the time it takes to enter college and complete medical board exams.H.Kahn & A. Wiener, The Year 2000: A Framework for Speculation on the Next Thirty-Three years (1967).
The Bias of ‘Moderns’ to Believe that “Lines” No Longer ExistNew College, Oxford despite its name was founded in the late 14th century.
It has a great dining hall with big oak beams which are 2 feet square and 45 feet across.
A century ago, a building examiner poked a pen knife into the beams and discovered they were full of beetles.
This was reported to the College Council, who met in some dismay, lamenting where they would ever find beams of that caliber.
An enterprising Council Member suggested that there might be on College lands some oak as English Colleges are endowed with pieces of land.
They approached the College Forester who
pulled his forelock and said,
”Well sirs, we was wonderin’ when you’d be asking.”
Macro-Linearity
Upon further inquiry it was discovered that when the College was founded, a grove of oaks had been planted to replace the beams in the dining hall when they became beetly.
College architects knew oak beams always become beetly in the end.
This plan had been passed down from one Forester to the next for six hundred years.
“You don’t cut them oaks. Them’s for the College Hall.”
Linearity
Problems With LinearityMarket researchers
deciding whether to put a train station in a town currently without one,
sends market researchers to the town to see if there
is any demand for a station.
Upon arriving in the town, the researchers see no one waiting for a train and therefore conclude,
there is no demand.
“I would not be surprised if the Russians reached the moon
within the week.”
John Rinehart of the Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory in Cambridge, MAOctober 1957
“Soon they will be
dropping bombs on us from space
like kids dropping rocks onto cars from
freeway overpasses.”
Senator Lyndon JohnsonOctober 1957
People Misunderstand LinearityThe Cumulative Impact of Time
A congressman was discussing US energy needs with a futurist. The congressman pointed out that adequate conservation measures and
modest lifestyles could reduce growth in electrical demand to 2 percent per year.
“But Congressman,” said the modeler,”even at 2 percent per year,
electrical demand will double in 35 years.”
“That’s your opinion!” exclaimed the Congressman.
The point is not to mock legislative innumeracy but to underscore that even the most technically valid model
doesn’t guarantee useful communication or productive interaction.
Big
Idea
s2003
1.General
ComputingTruths
Infrastructure owned by nobody [Internet];
carrying pieces of programs following no architectural design [client server]; running across flaky LAN protocols;connecting powerful systems run by
amateurs.
2005 - 2007 2010 FUTURE
10 GHz processor; 2TB database;
1GB link – all for $800
Processing Power Doubles Every 18 monthsStorage Capacity Doubles Every 12 months
Bandwidth Throughput Doubles Every 9 months
BIG IDEAS1. Technology advances are not slowing down.
“We will make as much progress in the next 18 months as we had during the entire history of computing up to
today.”
2. Computing devices of tomorrow will not be like the computing devices of today.
The technology era we are just about to enter will feature intelligent, semi-aware, always-on devices made by other intelligent, semi-aware devices driven by ubiquitous, nano-scale, data collecting sensors.
In 10 years, every molecule on the planet will be IP Addressable. RF-ID and GPS on key fobs are just the tip of the iceberg.
History of Technology 101…
Cash balances at 372 industrial companies in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index climbed 21% in 2003. [That’s the biggest increase in cash since the economic peak in 2000, when cash jumped 26%.]
Cash balances at Lehman up 147%; at ExxonMobil up 47%. Microsoft is sitting on $53 billion in cash.
Too Much Cash?
Matt Krantz, “Companies cope with too much cash,” USA Today (March 2, 2004), 1B.
Challenge 1: In rural Lebanon, there is a group of village schools which have no access to computers, nor to the internet and no connectivity. The school headmasters wish to introduce regular IT classes and teach word processing and access to the Internet. No donor is willing, at this time, to put in even a modest amount of computers and computing infrastructure in the schools.
How can the headmasters realize their dream?
Challenge 2: In Sri Lanka, farmers in rural areas have problems ranging from pests infecting the crops, to a cow that is not providing milk. The
farmers have heard of the internet, but most of them are illiterate, and do not know English. Besides, they have no access to computers. How can
farmers access knowledge on the internet, without computers or hand-held devices?
Challenge 3: In a village of 6.5 million villagers in Karnataka, India, land records are critical for the villagers to get access to crop subsidies, for
widows to qualify for pensions, and as a means of identity. The system is riddled with corruption and red tape, where village officials need to be bribed.
A public-private partnership wants to address the issues using IT. What should be done?
The Future of IT is Global
Mohamed Muhsin, Vice President & CIO, the World Bank Group
Gregor Bailar, CIO Capital One
Technology Imagination Drives Value…
“The competitive advantage you gain from using
information technology is not based on storing
or moving bits around, but based
on what you do with them.”
Bring the Future to the Present...
Horrific traffic jams and motorist congestion
California Transportation Department (Caltrans) estimates 24 months to fix a key destroyed
bridge on the Santa Monica Freeway [in Beverly Hills].
Economic cost of the bridge being closed to the flow of traffic
$1,000,000 a day.
Mayor Dick Riordan faces the first crisis of his young administration
[started his job July 1993]
The Los Angeles Earthquake
January 17, 1994
Bring the Future to the Present...
C.C. Meyers, innovative contractor and entrepreneur based in Sacramento gets
excited.
He sketches out the rough skeleton of a plan and then he proceeds to act on it as though he has the future in the palm of
his hands.
He contacts eight people.
The Los Angeles Earthquake
January 17, 1994
Bring the Future to the Present...
Thursday morning
The first person CC calls is a woman who used to work for him.
She was his administrative assistant. She knows his style.
She is very well connected in LA.
He says to her,
“Please Arrange for me a 15 minute meeting with the Mayor of the City of Los Angeles anytime
tomorrow, Friday.”
He has given her a purpose.
The Los Angeles Earthquake
January 17, 1994
Bring the Future to the Present...
He then contacts six key bridge building subcontractors.
He tells them to be ready to report to the bridge site with the best team of specialists they can assemble to work on the bridge at
the beginning of next week.
He has given them purpose and asked them to prepare to do adaptive planning.
He acts as if he has the future in the palm of his hand.
Does he have a contract?
Does he know he will get the contract?
The Los Angeles Earthquake
January 17, 1994
Bring the Future to the Present...
The eighth phone call he makes is to his attorney.
“I have drafted a half page which is my commitment
but I need you to work on it and notorize it.”
It is signed and notorized.
He relaxes. Things have been set in motion.
The Los Angeles Earthquake
January 17, 1994
Bring the Future to the Present...
Thursday evening
His former AA gets back to him.
“Tomorrow you have a meeting with the mayor of the
City of Los Angeles at 3 o’clock.
Does the mayor know about this meeting yet?
No – but his secretary does.
The Los Angeles Earthquake
January 17, 1994
Bring the Future to the Present...
Friday meeting with the Mayor
“Mr. Mayor, I am here to tell you that I will have the Santa Monica freeway bridge open safely to the
flow of traffic in six months.”
The Mayor asked,
“How can you do this?”
The Los Angeles Earthquake
January 17, 1994
Bring the Future to the Present...The Los Angeles
EarthquakeJanuary 17, 1994
Safety was a concern
Tyranny of the ‘Or’People think you can have it fast OR you can have it safe – not both.
The inspectors will converge on the job site next week and they will watch every step of the way. It will not be the batch processing adversarial ‘look for mistakes after they have been made kind of thinking.
Instead of having them come ‘take a look’ every six weeks and have us have to redo all work we may have done wrong.
They will stop the wrong from happening in the first place. We will not have to undo or redo anything. We will bring the future [in this case ‘inspection’] to the present.
Bring the Future to the Present...
Friday meeting with the Mayor
“Mr. Mayor, I sense that you are still a little concerned. I have here a document that will put all your fears to rest.
If I am late so much as one day after the six months I promise I will pay a penalty. A penalty of $100,000 a day.
This document pledges the full extent of my net worth as collateral for that promise-to-pay. The bid for the bridge work is
$15 million.
The mayor says, ‘that is very serious. Let’s bring in the City’s attorneys, get this thing signed and get started.”
“Mr. Mayor, there is one more issue we need to discuss.”
The Los Angeles Earthquake
January 17, 1994
Bring the Future to the Present...
“Before we sign the document, let’s talk about what happens if I finish early?
I pay a penalty for finishing late. Why not give me a reward for finishing early?”
The mayor started laughing. “You will be lucky to be on time let alone early.”
“Then you should not have any problem putting a clause in the contract that says for every day I am early I receive a million
dollars.”
The mayor jumps.
“Young man. Where do you get all these numbers?”
The Los Angeles Earthquake
January 17, 1994
Time & Focus Beat All...Meyers puts money in escrow AND SAYS HE WILL PAY THEM
FOR EVERYDAY HE IS LATE [~$100,000/DAY)
Negotiates a deal such that he will be paid a bonus for every day he is early (~$100,000 /day)
The Los Angeles Earthquake
January 17, 1994
Time & Focus Beat All...Explains to all parties involved the economics of the deal and makes them SIGNIFICANT beneficiaries if they come in early.
Every employee, every supplier knows exactly what time costs -- about $100,000 a day -- split among themselves. No one was
walking on that construction site.
The Los Angeles Earthquake
January 17, 1994
Shared Vision Shared Focus
Shared Purpose
Alignment of designers, contractors, inspectors, officials of the city, state and federal government and the
general public.
• Railroad company explains that there will be an eight day delay in
the delivery of much needed steel.
The next delivery train is not available for eight days.
C.C. Meyers negotiates for a special train.
The Los Angeles Earthquake
January 17, 1994
How much do you think Mr. Meyers was willing to
pay for his special delivery???
Time & Focus Beat All...
• The bridge is completed 66 days from award of contract.
The Los Angeles Earthquake
January 17, 1994Time & Focus Beat All...
