Bringing all-chileans-on-board-oecd-economic-survey-chile
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Transcript of Bringing all-chileans-on-board-oecd-economic-survey-chile
www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/economic-survey-chile.htm
OECD
OECD Economics
2015 OECD ECONOMIC SURVEY OF CHILE
Bringing all Chileans on board
Santiago, 25 November 2015
2
A long period of growth has reduced poverty dramatically
Note: The poverty line for a family of four is a family income below CLP 361 311 per month, and the extreme poverty line is a family income below CLP 240 874 per month, both for the year 2013.Source: Ministerio de Desarrollo Social.
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40Poverty Extreme poverty% of people % of people
3
I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6Chile Latin America
Growth has been resilient
Source: OECD Economic Outlook 98 database
GDP growth, Y-o-Y % change
4
The fall in copper prices has depressed investment
Source: Codelco and OECD Economic Outlook 98 database.
i ii iii iv i ii iii iv i ii iii iv i ii iii iv i ii iii iv i ii iii iv i ii iii iv i ii iii iv i ii iii iv i ii iii iv i ii iii iv2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
-20-15-10
-505
101520253035
-80-60-40-20020406080100120140
Investment (lhs) Copper price (rhs)
Y-o-y % changes Y-o-y % changes
5
I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
Consumer price inflation (lhs)
Nominal effective exchange rate, chain-linked, overall weights (rhs)
Y-o-Y % changes
Exchange rate depreciation has temporarily raised inflation
Source: Central bank of Chile and OECD Economic Outlook 98 database.
Y-o-Y % changes
6
Improving opportunities for all
7
The richest 10% earn 26.5 times the income of the poorest 10%
Source: OECD, Income Distribution and Poverty Database.
Ratio of incomes of the top 10% vs. bottom 10%
DNK
CZE
FIN
SVN
ISL
SVK
BEL
NOR
SWE
DEU
CHE
NLD
AUT
LUX
HUN
POL
FRA
IRL
NZL
CAN
AUS
OECD ES
TPR
TGB
RKO
RJP
NIT
AES
PGR
CIS
RTU
RUS
AM
EX CHL
0
5
10
15
20
25
0
5
10
15
20
25ratio ratio
Growth needs to become more inclusive
8
The tax and transfer system does little to reduce income inequality
Raise tax revenues to increase social spending, and improve the redistributive impact of taxes and transfers.
KOR
CHE
ISL
SVK
SWE
DNK
NLD
NOR
CZE
NZL
JPN
AUS
SVN
CAN
FIN
BEL
DEU
EST
POL
HUN
AUT
LUX
ITA
ISR
FRA
TUR
ESP
USA
PRT
GBR
MEX
GRC
CHL
IRL
OECD
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
0.45
0.5
0.55
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
0.45
0.5
0.55Inequality before taxes and tansfers Inequality after taxes and transfers
% changes in Gini before and after taxes and transfers
Source: OECD, Income Distribution and Poverty Database.
9
Pension benefits are among the lowest in the OECD
Note: “Average” and “low” earnings levels refer to 100% AW and 50% of the AW respectively.Source: OECD, Pension at a Glance Database.
The pension system should provide better income support in retirement.
JPN
DEU
MEX US
APO
LCH
LKO
RGB
RSW
EFI
NIR
LFR
APR
TCH
EES
PES
TBE
LSV
NOE
CD NZL
ITA
LUX
SVK
CAN
NOR
AUT
GRC
ISL
HUN
CZE
AUS
TUR
NLD
ISR
DNK
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
20
40
60
80
100
120Low = 50% Average wageAverage = 100% Average wage
Net pension replacement rates Net pension replacement rates
10
Inequality in the labour market is also high
Share of temporary contracts
Reduce duality in the labour market between protected indefinite contracts and precarious fixed-term contracts.
EST
GBR
SVK
LUX
BEL
NOR
DNK
AUT
CZE
GRC
IRL
HUN
OECD TU
RCH
EIT
ACA
NDE
UIS
LFI
NSV
NFR
ASW
ENL
DPR
TKO
RES
PPO
LCH
L
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0
5
10
15
20
25
30% %
Source: OECD Employment and Labour Market Statistics 2014.
11
Reducing gender gaps is key to boost growth and reduce inequality
Source: OECD Employment and Labour Market Statistics 2014.
Further expand availability and quality of early childhood education and care.
Chile
Latin America
OECD
50 55 60 65
Labour force participation rate 2014, women aged 15-64
12
Very few women are on corporate boards
Source: World Values Survey Association.
DEU
JPN
NLD
CHL
CAN
PER
IND
IRL
EGY
ITA
ARG
TUR
MEX PO
LAU
SNZ
LGB
RBR
ACH
EPR
TGR
CLU
XDN
K
ESP
BEL
USA
FRA
SWE
NOR
0
5
10
15
20
0
5
10
15
20% %
Promote gender diversity in leadership positions in parliament and private companies.
38
13
Gender pay gap is highest for the poorest
Source: OECD calculations based on CASEN(2013).
Bring gender issues into the public debate through information campaigns.
Poorest decile 3rd decile 5th decile 7th decile Richest decile0
10
20
30
40
50
60
0
10
20
30
40
50
60% %
14
Spending on active labour market policies is low
Note: The figure for Chile does not include the recent programme MasCapaz.Source: OECD Employment and Labour Market Statistics 2014.
Increase investment on active labour market policies to help promote labour opportunities for women.
MEX US
ACH
LJP
NGB
RCZ
EKO
RSV
KNZ
LES
TIS
RPO
LCA
NNO
RAU
SHU
NSV
NCH
ELU
XDE
UIT
ASW
EAU
TPR
TFR
AFI
NBE
LNL
DIR
LDN
KES
P
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4% of GDP % of GDP
15
Better skills for inclusive growth
16
Many students lack minimum skills
Source: OECD, PISA 2012 Database.
Ensure that schools are more responsive to vulnerable students, especially by boosting the quality of outcomes.
Undertake a skills strategy to assess labour market needs and guide training and education policies.
OECD Chile Latin America0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70Chart Title% of students with poor skills
17
A low share of students beat the socio-economic odds stacked against them
Source: OECD, PISA 2012 Database.
Improve the quality and access to pre-primary education. Implement legislation to end school selection.
CHL
ISR
GRC MEX SV
KHU
NSW
EDN
KUS
AIS
LNZ
LNO
RFR
AG
BR SVN
CZE
LUX
AUT
AUS
IRL
OEC
DIT
AES
PBE
LTU
RDE
UPR
TFI
NCA
NPO
LNL
DES
TCH
EJP
NKO
R
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
% of disadvantaged students with top PISA math scores
18
Education and skills improve growth
Note: The bars in Panel B refer to annual growth rates (in percentage points) once the whole labour force has reached the specific goal.Source: OECD, PISA 2012 Database and OECD (2015).
Change in annual GDP growth if universal basic skills are attained by 2030
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6Percentage points Percentage points
19
Chile has a shortage of qualified teachers
Source: OECD, PISA 2012 Database.
Percentage of certified teachers (as reported by school principals in PISA)
Approve the legislation to strengthen teachers’ career paths.
CHL
MEX LU
XIS
RNL
DFR
AGR
CCH
EIT
ABE
L
AUT
SWE
NOR
FIN
TUR
DEU
SVK
GBR
SVN
USA
NZL
PRT
CAN
ISL
AUS
POL
IRL
KOR
JPN
ESP
0102030405060708090
100
0102030405060708090100
% %
20
Tertiary education: the poor enroll far less than the rich
Source: CASEN (2013).
Percentage of students enrolled in tertiary education by level of family income
Poorest quintile Quintile 2 Quintile 3 Quintile 4 Richest quintile0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100% %
Expand and improve income-contingent loans to finance tuition fees and help students access tertiary education.
Link funding for tertiary education to improved quality, especially for the least well-off students.
21
Boosting productivity growth
22
Boosting productivity growth is one of Chile’s foremost challenge to raise living standards
Source: UAI/CORFO (2014), Boletín trimestral Evolución de la PTF en Chile, No. 7.
Total factor productivity
Fully roll out the Productivity Agenda, to strengthen the capacity of dynamic firms to scale up and carry out innovative activities.
1993-1998 2000-2008 2010-2013-12-10
-8-6-4-202468
-12-10-8-6-4-202468
Total Fator Productivity (TFP) : AggregateTFP: Aggregate without natural resourcesTFP: Mining
Average annual % growth
Average annual % growth
23
Spending on R&D remains very low
Source: OECD Science, Technology and Industry Scoreboard 2015: Innovation for growth and society.
R&D expenditure
Increase spending on R&D to scale up and support innovative activities.
CHL
MEX AR
GZA
FGR
CSV
KPO
LTU
RRU
SLU
XES
PIT
ANZ
LPR
THU
NIR
LCA
NGB
RNO
RES
TCZ
ENL
DCH
NAU
SFR
ABE
LIS
LSV
NUS
AAU
TDE
UCH
EDN
KSW
EFI
NJP
NKO
RIS
R
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5Private Non-Profit sector Government sector Higher Education sectorBusiness Enterprise sector
OECD average
% of GDP % of GDP
24
Business regulation remains restrictive in multiple areas
Sources: OECD, Product Market Regulation Database.
Further reduce the complexity of administrative procedures for business and simplify sector-specific regulations.
Product market restrictiveness
Best 3 performers
Average OECD
Chile
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Regulatory complexity
Barriers in network sec-tors
Startup burdens
Increasing in stringency of regulation (Index 0-6)
25
Summary
26
Main Findings
o The sound macroeconomic framework made growth more resilient than in other countries in the face of the recent fall in commodity prices.
o However, income inequality remains very high and is passed from one generation to the next, reducing opportunities to climb the social ladder.
o Chile is now reforming its tax system to make it more progressive and expand social programmes.
o Key reforms seek to reduce gender gaps and thus achieve a fairer society. o But labour market duality still results in a very unequal wages distribution.
o School enrolment is high, although the quality of education is uneven, and access to the best schools is reserved primarily for well-off families.
o The government’s education reform seeks to make schools more inclusive and reshape teacher careers.
o More investment in vocational education and training will be needed.Edu
catio
nInclusion
Macro
27
Recommendations to widen opportunities
Strengthen policies to make growth more inclusive.
Raise tax revenues to increase social spending and improve the redistributive impact of taxes and transfers.
Further expand availability and quality of early childhood education and care.
Promote gender diversity in leadership positions in parliament and private companies.
Bring gender issues in the public debate through information campaigns.
Reduce duality in the labour market between protected indefinite contracts and precarious fixed-term contracts.
The pension system should provide better income support to the retired.
28
Recommendations to improve skills
Ensure that schools are more responsive to vulnerable students, especially by boosting the quality of outcomes.
Undertake a skills strategy to assess labour market needs and guide training and education policies.
Improve the quality and access to pre-primary education.
Implement legislation to end school selection.
Approve the legislation to strengthen teachers’ career paths.
Link funding for tertiary education to improved quality, especially for the least well-off students.
29
Recommendations to boost productivity
Fully roll out the Productivity Agenda, to strengthen the capacity of dynamic firms to scale up and carry out innovative activities.
Increase spending on R&D to scale up and support innovative activities.
Further reduce the complexity of administrative procedures for business and simplify sector-specific regulations.
Pass the competition bill that strengthens sanctions for cartels, reform the merger control regime and facilitate market studies.
More Information…
www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/economic-survey-chile.htm
OECDOECD Economics
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