Briefing on the Regional Economy Rae D. Rosen Senior Economist Federal Reserve Bank of New York...

Briefing on the Regional Economy

Rae D. RosenSenior Economist

Federal Reserve Bank of New YorkMarch 12, 2003

2

Coincident Economic Indicators

100

110

120

130

140

150

Dec-90 Dec-92 Dec-94 Dec-96 Dec-98 Dec-00 Dec-02

100

110

120

130

140

150

New York State

New York City

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, FRBNY calculations.

New Jersey

3

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

9/8/01 11/22/01 2/5/02 4/21/02 7/5/02 9/18/02 12/2/02 2/15/0310,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000sadj. 4 - week

NYS Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Seasonally Adjusted

Claims

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Claims

4

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

9/8/01 11/24/01 2/9/02 4/27/02 7/13/02 9/28/02 12/14/020

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000sadj. 4-week

NYC Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Seasonally Adjusted

Claims Claims

Source: New York State Department of Labor

5

Growth in Service Jobs% change from December 2001 - December 2002

United States New York New York City New Jersey

Feb. '02 - '03)

Business 0.5 -0.7 -4.5 -1.8

Security/Commodity Broker -2.3 -5.4 -5.6 -11.6

Eating and Drinking -1.5 0.9 1.0 1.7

Motion Pictures 0.1 -3.6 -3.9 ---

Engineering & Management 1.2 -2.5 -1.8 -0.4

Social 2.1 3.5 2.9 5.4

Educational 3.9 -0.8 2.0 1.9

Recreation -0.3 -3.0 6.1 2.9

Health 2.2 2.2 1.9 1.6

Legal 3.4 -0.2 -0.5 -0.3

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, FRBNY Calculations.

6

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, FRBNY Calculations.

Growth in Service JobsDecember 2001 - December 2002

United States New York State New York City New Jersey

(Feb. '02 - '03)

Business 45800 -3800 -14300 -6100

Security/Commodity Broker -16400 -10300 -9800 -6300

Eating and Drinking -120600 3700 1700 3100

Motion Pictures 400 -2400 -2100 ----

Engineering & Management 44400 -6100 -2200 -600

Social 65400 13100 5300 5000

Educational 103100 -2700 2700 1400

Recreation -5000 -4700 2900 1100

Health 237200 17500 6200 5800

Legal 35800 -200 -400 -100

7

Business and Consumer Services Employment

Percent change from 12 months earlier

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

Percent Percent


United States Feb. '03 0.9%New York City Dec. '02 -0.5%New York Dec. '02 0.2%

New York City

New York State

United States

8

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

Employment in the Securities IndustryPercent change from 12 months earlier

New York City

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

United States Feb. ‘03 -2.3%New York City Dec. ‘02 -5.6%New York Dec. ‘02 -5.4%

New York State

United States

PercentPercent

9

Health and Social Services EmploymentPercent change from 12 months earlier

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

Percent Percent

United States


United States Feb. '03 2.2%New York City Dec. '02 2.2%New York Dec. '02 2.6%New Jersey Dec. '02 2.4%

New York City

New York State

10

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24

Number of Months

April 1989 - Mar. 1994

Jan. 2001 - Dec. 2002Oct. 1981 - Feb. 1983

Nov. 1973 - Jan. 1977

Percent

New York Recession PatternsDecline from Employment Peak to Trough


Nov. 1969 - Feb. 1972

11

-7

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24

Number of Months

April 1989 - Sep. 1993

Dec. 2000 - Dec. 2002

July. 1969 - Mar. 1977

New York City Recession PatternsDecline from Employment Peak to Trough


Percent

12

Second District Unemployment Rates

December 2001 December 2002

United States 5.6% (Feb. 02) 5.8% (Feb. 03)

New York 5.7% 6.3%

New York City 7.3% 8.4%

New Jersey 4.8% 5.5%

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

13

Percent of Residential Mortgage Loans with Installments 90 Days Past Due

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

92Q3 94Q3 96Q3 98Q3 00Q3 02Q3

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

PercentPercent

Source: Mortgage Bankers Association

New York

Connecticut

United States 2002 Q3 0.82%New York 2002 Q3 0.74%New Jersey 2002 Q3 0.88%Connecticut 2002 Q3 0.59%

United States

New Jersey

14

Percent of Residential Mortgage Loans in Foreclosure Started During the Quarter

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

92Q3 94Q3 96Q3 98Q3 00Q3 02Q3

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

PercentPercent

Source: Mortgage Bankers Association

Connecticut

New York

United States 2002 Q3 1.17%New York 2002 Q3 1.37%New Jersey 2002 Q3 1.40%Connecticut 2002 Q3 0.90%

United States

New Jersey

15

Office Vacancy RatesQuarterly

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

0

5

10

15

20

25

30Percent Percent

Source: Coldwell Banker.

United States-Metropolitan

NYC-Metropolitan

NYC-DowntownNorthern New Jersey

16

Consumer Price IndexPercent change from 12 months earlier

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

Percent Percent


United States

New York and Northeastern

New Jersey

U.S. Jan. '03 2.6%NY/NE Jan. '03 3.3%

17

Consumer Price IndexPercent change from 12 months earlier

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

Percent Percent


United States - Durable Goods

United States - Services

U.S. Jan. '03 2.6%U.S. - Services Jan. '03 3.3%U.S. - Durable Goods Jan. '03 -3.0%

United States

18

The Conference Board Index of Consumer Attitudes

1985= 100

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Sources: The Conference Board.

Note: Shading denotes NBER recessions

Consumer confidence Current

situation

Consumer expectations

Index Index

19

500

2000

3500

5000

6500

Jan Feb Mar April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

500

2000

3500

5000

6500

Sales Tax Revenue Collections 2002


New York State Tax Revenue CollectionsYear to Date

Mil $ Mil $

Source: Office of the New York State Comptroller

20

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

Jan Feb Mar April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500



New York City Tax Revenue CollectionsYear to Date

Mil $ Mil $

Source: New York City Department of Finance

21

300060009000

1200015000180002100024000270003000033000


3000600090001200015000180002100024000270003000033000

Income Tax Revenue Collections 2002


New York State Tax Revenue CollectionsYear to Date

Mil $ Mil $

Source: Office of the New York State Comptroller

22

500

1500

2500

3500

4500

5500


500

1500

2500

3500

4500

5500



New York City Tax Revenue CollectionsYear to Date

Mil $ Mil $

Source: New York City Department of Finance

23

Personal IncomePercent change from 4 quarters earlier

-2-10123456789

10111213

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

-2-1012345678910111213

Percent

United States

New York

United States 2002 Q3 3.3%New York 2002 Q3 1.9%Percent


24

-6-5-4-3-2-10123456789

1011121314

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

-6-5-4-3-2-101234567891011121314

Percent

United States

New York

Percent

Wages and SalariesPercent change from 4 quarters earlier

United States 2002 Q3 1.8%New York 2002 Q3 0.0%


Briefing on the Regional Economy Rae D. Rosen Senior Economist Federal Reserve Bank of New York...

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Transcript of Briefing on the Regional Economy Rae D. Rosen Senior Economist Federal Reserve Bank of New York...