Brian byrne atc presentation deck tcxl 2015 final
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CLASSIC PATTERNS OF COMPETITIVE WAR GAMING Brian Byrne, Aviador & Assoc. Trump National Doral, Miami FL June 2015
Transcript of Brian byrne atc presentation deck tcxl 2015 final
CLASSIC PATTERNS OF COMPETITIVE WAR GAMING
Brian Byrne, Aviador & Assoc.Trump National Doral, Miami FL June 2015
Introduction
Competitor War Games Workshop
© Aviador 2015 2
What We DoWho We Work With
Today’s Agenda
I. Global “VUCA” Battlefield: Disruptive Retail
II. REtail-VOLUTION …What It Means To Us
III.War Gaming: How It Helps, How It Works
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“Moving from solving a world of problems, which demand speed, analysis, and elimination of uncertainty to a world of dilemmas,
which demand patience, sense-making, and an …. engagement of uncertainty.”
I. Global VUCA Battlefield
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A quantum change in the way we buy and sell goods and services.
II. REtail-VOLUTION
The APPLE Amazing Experience
The STARBUCK’S Experience
Activism Meets Consumerism
Business War Games Workshop
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Iconic “Experiential” Brands Face The Wrath of Counter-Consumerism Trend
“Canary In The Kitchen”, Too
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The Joy (?) Of Shopping
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Did IT change or did WE ?
Mall Failure
6,000 retail locations closing
“Dead Malls”
Rust belt epicenter
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Eroding middle class
Less disposable income
Demographic shifts, Amazon
On-Demand: “Mall Killers”
Mobile apps factor
All about “deals on-
demand”
What about Groupon,
Yelp?
DASH button disruptor
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Old Things Made New Again
1. Missionary: challenges prevailing belief system
[Fashion: Louis Vuitton “Lifestyle”…not just luggage]
2. Visionary: challenges category purpose and role
[Cleansing: deep, gentle cleansing, not just washing]
3. Rule Breaker: challenges commonly accepted category rule
[Pop-Up Barber: Manly stuff + amazing AVEDA experience]
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CHALLENGERS know how to translate brand HERITAGE into HERESY
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Sun Tsu
Most battles won before they are fought;
Strategy without tactics is slow route to victory;
Tactics without strategy= “noise” before defeat.
III. BUSINESS WAR GAMING
Business War Gaming: How
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Frame Battlefield
Micro Situation, Macro Trends
Surprising-Scary Stuff
New Insights: Metaphor Tool
How To Challenge
Scenario Planning & Risk
Strategic Pillars: Battle Map
Flesh Out Battle Plan
Role Play THE ENEMY + Implications
Priorities: Now, Soon, Later
Divergent
Activate
DAY ONE
DAY TWO
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Online Community Test Lab: Battle Plan
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Output from two day WAR GAMING workshop
Send it to ONLINE COMMUNITY for gaming feedback
Adjust plan based on their feedback
Stretch Minds Beyond Accepted Norms of Competition
Understand enemy: character, culture capabilities
Think like them, get into their head (role play)
Develop disruptive strategic activation
Scenario-plan opportunities and risks
FIERCELY activate as a Samurai Warrior or Cossack
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As War Gamers, What To Look For?
Over- or under- served customers
Excessive product complexity
Large segments of non-adopters
Changing value dynamics
Acquisition targets & patterns
Disruptive suppliers in adjacent sectors
Emerging “whitespace” segments or differentiated competitors
Strong players in adjacent segments, esp. mature markets
Source: Innosight, 2014
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CUSTOMER
DIAGNOSTIC
PORTFOLIO
DIAGNOSTIC
COMPETITOR
DIAGNOSTIC
Three Dimensions of Disruptions
Ask THE Right Question
Game Theory: question-led… moves by one player triggers moves by others
No player an island, all operate in a system
“A Beautiful Mind” movie, the story of John Forbes Nashhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YFUF5OEUiD8
73 Questions
with Victoria
Beckham
A Beautiful
Mind
Movie With
Russell Crowe
VIDEO:
Unmasking Enigmas: great interviewers reveal essential truth of person, place, thing
Victoria Beckham: humanity behind “brand”
Shift Your MINDSET
METAPHORS are a way to:
1. stimulate “out of the box” thinking; shared reference for teams
2. synthesize market/ competitive situation; insights via analogies
3. understand how to compete in order to:
visualize how “we” can act differently …
…. based on “their” vulnerabilities and strengths
develop new insights, help us think like THEM
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Categories & Metaphors
Hungry Gorilla v. Clever Monkey
Walled City v. Trojan Horse
Fat & Happy Whale v. Shark
Rich Idiot v. Smart Peasant
Roving Pirates v. Captain Philips
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Manchester U v. Arsenal
Medieval History
Animal Kingdom
Sports
Movies
Starbuck’s Was a “Walled City”
How to attack, conquer a Walled City? Surprise, Sneak Attack
build less expensive “New City” nearby
Direct Attack – McCafe 2009 “Stole” villagers from Walled City- similar coffee, lower price
How to survive it ? Take better care of your villagers (keep them loyal)
Expand fiefdom in a novel direction
Build a better Walled City (e.g. Sephora)
Make experience so special that villagers stay
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Beauty Business: Like the “Hat Competition” At Royal Ascot
“A Beautiful Mind” movie, the story of John Forbes Nash
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Sephora NEW Walled CitySephora emerges as leading digital retailer:
One third-of online= mobile / tablet
iSephora To Go app nurtures loyalty and convenience [research in-store]
app tracks current store promos, past purchases, loyalty points earned
if a customer is $$ shy of earning next reward, she can update her basket before she gets to the register
Past purchase info assistance:
shoppers can lose track of exact foundation shade or lipstick color purchased previously
For repeats, Sephora looks up info and drives customer to make purchase in-store
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"We think customers should use their phones in stores, your phone is always in your hand, so we're using mobile to transform the shopping experience. Our customers can use the app to track Beauty Insider points, so while shopping, she knows how many more points to accumulate and can shop accordingly“
Johnna Marcus, Sephoradirector of mobile, digital store marketing
PHYGITAL: Merge Physical + Digital
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“PHYGITAL” consumers will move in four areas:
1. On Demand: engage digitally anywhere, anytime
2. Data-Holistic: “whole” experiences using total lifestyle data
3. Personalized: expectation of precision-tailored experiences
4. Seamless: ease of use, end-to-end continuity: “no hassle”
Burberry World Live-Regent St.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CokbQWI_15U
Choose + Combine Attack Strategies
Direct Attack When bigger, richer and more resilient than competitor
Indirect Attack When same size/smaller than competitor (or in a deadlocked position); initially distract and then secondarily attack their achilles heel
Envelopment Attack When your multi-brand portfolio can “surround” a lone competitor and usurp whitespace
Bypass Attack When disadvantaged in a primary, home market -- transfer core competencies to adjacent or unrelated category.
Guerrilla Attack Ideal for a centralized, command and control competitor who will not be nimble enough to respond to random, constant stream of assaults
Infiltrate and Destroy From Within When your opponent has ferocious defenses, impervious to classic attacks. Also known as “Trojan Horse” playbook.
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No Island To Invade? Just Build One
PIRATE ATTACK: South China Sea; China Builds Own Strategic Isles
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Apple Challenged Music, Mobile Watch And Other Categories
NOW: Apple itself is being challenged !!!
Scenario: Lord of the Rings
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Cast of characters:Android (Samsung)= Dark Lord Sauron Apple = [the One] Ring of Mordor
This one?
Or, this one?
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Q: Who Will Win Smartphone Battle?
…or Samsung or GooglePhone or ???32
Tells consumers what they need
Outsources manufacturing [i.e. a
Sales+Marketing company]
Pushes product through channels
Vertical focus: “mobility”
Latest innovations: iWatch
Conducts extensive CI on needs
Manufactures internally, even key
components for Apple!
Partners with distributors in design
“at home” , “mobile lifestyle mgt.”
Latest innovations: curved screen
Q: Who Wins GREAT WAR for Mobile Lifestyle Control
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High Fashion Meets High Tech
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Angela Ahrends
Scenarios Prepare For Various Futures35
• Future is unpredictable---but preparing for a range of possible futures is useful
• Leverages insights across functions and uses this knowledge to build the scenarios
• Designed to eliminate “jumping to a single conclusion” while considering all the possible risks and opportunities
Critical
Business IssueBuilding
Scenarios and Risk Events
Cross Functional
Teams
Scenario Planning Process
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GOOGLE Wonderland Pop-up Store
Last Phone Standing: Envelop Apple![Be Switzerland, Not Poland]
• Defend from strong citadels
• Close whitespace gaps before “them”
• Second tier price flanker (China) w less
features
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Premium
Differentiated,
Integrated
Value
HTC (Droid) Value
HTC Titan-Premium
Functional,
Simple
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MOTO-X (Droid)
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ANDROID CHALLENGERS!
APPLE Mile Wide, Inch Deep
Android Envelopment
GOOGLE “Fewer, Better”
Eroded iPhone margins (China)
iCloud security chaos, iOS, Siri and iMaps flops
iTunes yields to Pandora
iWatch: people expect it to be a phone too
What if Google buys Pandora?
Retooling Maps-App, voice-activated search
G-Glass test and learn
Self-Driving car
Keep An Eye on RIGHT Competitor
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“Reality” Isn’t What It Used to Be
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Q: Would You Trust Your Wallet to
Money: Mugardos, Spain Commerce: Online
BITCOIN
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Imagineer AUDACIOUS Scenarios
OPENING OUR EYES TO A RANGE OF POTENTIAL FUTURES…
…AND ACCOMPANYING OPPORTUNITIES & RISKS
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DUBAI DOMED CITY 2025
What Is BIGGEST Risk We Imagine?
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Russian Asteroid Hurricane Sandy
What is the probability of it occurring?
How much would it Impact us ?
“BLACK SWANS” infrequent, but VERY HIGH impact
HIT PAUSE: think about what might happen
THANK YOU
Business War Games Workshop
© Brian T. Byrne Enterprises Ltd./ Aviador 2015
CONTACT: [email protected]
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May The FIERCE Be With you!
