BREEDING AND QUALITY ANALYSIS OF RAPESEED

BREEDING AND QUALITY ANALYSIS OF RAPESEED

ACIAR Projects CS1/1984/069 and CS1/1988/039

Peter ChudleighAgtrans Research, Toowong, BrisbaneJuly 1999

E E E E

ACIAR is concerned that the products of its research are adopted by farmers, policy-makers, quarantine officials and others whom its research is designed to help.

E E E E

In order to monitor the effects of its projects, ACIAR commissions assessments of selected projects, conducted by people independent of ACIAR. This series reports the results of these independent studies.

E E E E

Communications regarding any aspects of this series should be directed to:The ManagerImpact Assessment ProgramACIARGPO Box 1571Canberra ACT 2601Australia.

ISBN 1 86320 265 X

Editing and design by Arawang Communication Group, Canberra

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I M P A C T A S S E S S M E N T SE R I E S

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Contents

Executive Summary 5

1. Introduction 6

2. Technical Background 8

Erucic Acid 8Glucosinolates 9

3. Pre-Project Situation 9

China 9Australia 10

4. Project Outputs and Outcomes for China 11

Development of Open-pollinated, Double-low Varieties 11Development of Hybrid Varieties 15Other Outputs 15The Future 16Imports and Exports 17

5. Project Outputs and Outcomes for Australia 17

6. Project Outputs and Outcomes for the Rest of the World 19

7. Investment Analysis 19

Project Costs 20Estimation of Benefits to China 21Estimation of Benefits to Australia 24Attribution of Benefits 24Implications for Prices 26Results 27

8. Conclusion 29

Acknowledgments 29

References 30

Appendixes 31

1. Costs of production for traditional varieties, Zhong Shuang No. 4 and Zhong You Zha 93-1 31

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2. Cost of production for rapeseed in Australia 323. Detailed results from the economic assessment 34

of ACIAR-supported projects CS1/1984/069 and CS1/1988/039

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Executive Summary

This study is an ex-post, economic assessment of two projects supported by ACIAR and concerned with the breeding and quality analysis of rapeseed in Australia and China. These projects were carried out sequentially with the first one commencing on 1 July 1986. The second one was completed on 30 June 1991. The projects were essentially an exchange of knowledge and germplasm of rape (

Brassica napus

)* between plant breeders in Australia and China. The projects resulted in the release of varieties of rape that yielded improved seed in Australia, China and other developed and developing countries.

An economic evaluation of these projects was made in 1991 and the results published in Chudleigh (1991). Assumptions made in the 1991 analysis have now been updated. Despite the increased information available about the projects and their outcomes, it was still necessary to make various assumptions, particularly with regard to the valuation of benefits and their attribution to the ACIAR projects.

The benefits accruing to both Australia and China are now estimated to be a little less than those estimated in 1991. Among the reasons for this were difficulties experienced in hybrid seed production in Australia and the reduced benefits in China because improved rapeseed is not always segregated at crushing plants. Nevertheless, the 1999 analysis demonstrates that the projects have provided significant benefits, especially to China, as tabulated below.

The estimated investment criteria for the combined projects (discount rate is 5%)

It is concluded that the projects have provided a rate of economic return of at least 28% on the funds invested in both Australia and China. It is likely that as time passes the returns will be considerably higher than estimated

Net present value (A$ million as of 1996)

Benefit–cost ratio Internal rate of return(%)

Estimated over 30 years from 1985–86

34 14 33

Estimated over 13 year period 1985–86 to 1998–99

9 4 28

* For convenience and because we are primarily concerned with its seed, we will refer to rapeseed rather than rape for the rest of this report.

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here because the areas planted to new, open-pollinated and hybrid varieties of rape will expand in China in the future. Further, there are likely to have been significant benefits to the rest of the world, though these are not estimated here.

1. Introduction

This study provides an economic assessment of projects CS1/1984/069 and CS1/1988/039, which were supported by ACIAR from 1986 to 1992. Both projects were associated with rape breeding in the People’s Republic of China and Australia. The projects were focused on the application of Australian plant breeding expertise and materials, including equipment, germplasm, and testing methods, to Chinese plant breeding, and on the use of Chinese germplasm in an Australian hybrid rapeseed development program.

The objectives of the first project were to:

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develop a range of ‘double low’ germplasm (segregating material) which can be selected in different localities to produce open pollinated varieties (double low is a term which describes varieties which have oil low in erucic acid and meal which is low in glucosinolates);

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modify the genetic background of double low lines … to improve their suitability for hybrid seed production;

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develop double low … inbred lines … for China;

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develop appropriate analytical methods for screening and testing breeders lines for erucic acid and glucosinolate content:

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develop appropriate analytical techniques for testing seed delivered at receival depots.

The second project’s objectives were to:

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evaluate and reselect ‘double low’ quality rapeseed lines for China;

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develop [further] ‘double low’ … genetic material … adapted to China;

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develop, monitor and support the quality analysis of rapeseed in the breeding programs of the Institute of Oil Crops Research (IOCR) and the Jiangsu Academy of Agricultural Sciences (JAAS);

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develop an appropriate method of monitoring glucosinolate levels for seed lots at receival depots.

The projects, carried out sequentially, involved plant breeders from an Australian private company, Pacific Seeds, located in Toowoomba, Queensland, and plant breeders and other personnel from the IOCR in Wuhan, Hubei Province, People’s Republic of China.

This evaluation updates a 1991 economic evaluation of these two projects (Chudleigh 1991). In 1991, no varieties had been released in either China or Australia as a result of the projects. Assumptions made at that time have been revised to take account of events in the eight years between 1991 and 1999. The framework for the evaluation has also been restructured in the light of the greater amount of information now available.

Section 2 of this report provides the technical background to some important issues relating to aspects of rapeseed quality improvement that were the focus of the projects in China. This information is provided to aid understanding of the assumptions made later in the evaluation and interpretation of the results. Section 3 describes rapeseed production in China and Australia before the projects began and the circumstances leading to implementation of the first project. The outputs from the projects and their translation into benefits for China, Australia, and the rest of the world are described in sections 4, 5 and 6.

The quantitative investment analysis for the projects is provided in Section 7. First, project costs are described. Second, sets of assumptions used in the analysis are presented. These assumptions relate to the estimation of benefits for both Australian and Chinese production systems, the attribution of benefits and the implications for prices. Third, results of the investment analyses, including those of sensitivity analyses, are reported. Section 8 gives the conclusions of the study.

2. Technical Background

Rape (

Brassica napus

) is an oilseed crop belonging to the brassica family and grown in temperate-climate zones. China is the world’s largest

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producer of rapeseed, growing both spring and winter crops. Canada, India, and European countries

are also large producers. Rape is a relatively new crop in Australia, but production has increased rapidly since the 1970s and particularly since the early 1990s. Australia is now in the top ten rapeseed-producing countries in the world.

Since the late 1960s, plant breeders have been selecting rapeseed for so-called ‘double-low’ varieties. These are varieties that contain lower amounts of two chemical compounds: erucic acid in the oil and glucosinolate in the meal. The meal is what remains after the oil has been crushed from the seed. The oil and meal derived from these so-called ‘double-low’ varieties are considered superior to those derived from varieties that have higher levels of erucic acid and glucosinolates (‘double-high’ varieties). The reasons for this are given below.

Canadians were the first to breed plants yielding double-low varieties of rapeseed. Following this, they changed the name of the crop from rapeseed to ‘canola’ to differentiate it from double-high rapeseed. Australian farmers began growing double-lows in the early 1980s and have generally adopted the new name ‘canola’. European countries changed to double-lows in the early 1990s.

Because this report covers both double-lows and double-highs, the older term ‘rapeseed’ is used.

Erucic Acid

The oil from rapeseed consists of saturated and unsaturated fatty acids. Double-low rapeseed oil is low in saturated fatty acids, which are generally accepted to be undesirable in the human diet because they lead to the production of cholesterol in the body.

Rapeseed oil contains mono- and polyunsaturated fatty acids. Both types are deemed to be more desirable than saturated fatty acids, although the relative proportions of the two are thought also to be important.

Erucic acid is a mono-unsaturated fatty acid that can contribute up to 40% of the oil crushed from the older varieties of rapeseed. The results of experiments in the 1960s cast suspicion on erucic acid as a cause of heart lesions in a particular strain of rats. While the evidence for harmful effects not conclusive, a number of countries began to move to production of low erucic acid types of rapeseed. China and India are two of the world’s largest producers and consumers of rapeseed oil. There are no known human health

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problems due to rapeseed oil consumption in those countries, but the amounts in the diet are small because it is used only as a cooking oil.

Glucosinolates

Rapeseed is crushed to extract its oil. The residue is rapeseed meal, which is a potentially valuable product for livestock feeding because of its high protein content and desirable amino acid composition. However, meal derived from rapeseed with high glucosinolate levels has been shown to depress the appetite of animals and lower their productivity. The material is harmless in the seed but when the seed is crushed the glucosinolates break down into isothiocyanates, which have a distinctive flavour disliked by animals and may thereby depress weight gain. Also, the isothiocyanates interfere with the uptake of iodine in monogastric animals such as chickens and pigs which may then develop goitres. High levels of isothiocyanates can kill chickens.

3. Pre-Project Situation

China

In 1986, before the project began, China was producing about 5 million tonnes per year of rapeseed. It was the world’s largest producer.

The Chinese were concerned about the high levels of erucic acid in their rapeseed oil, because it affected the product’s market image. Improving this image was particularly important to the Chinese, because they were attempting to position their industry to export rapeseed or oil to Japan, where the Canadians had already established a market for oil with low erucic acid levels.

Also important to China was the potential to increase the use of rapeseed meal as an animal feedstuff. The meal had thus far been used predominantly as a fertiliser. The fact that it contained high levels of glucosinolates severely restricted the amount of rapeseed meal that could be used as an animal feed. The Chinese Government was aiming to increase the country’s output of animal products but saw feed supply problems as limiting this endeavour. Breeding double-low varieties of rapeseed was seen as an opportunity to achieve higher levels of self-sufficiency in regions where locally produced animal feed was scarce.

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Australia

At the time the project commenced, Australian production was centred on Victoria and southern New South Wales but had been expanding into Queensland and northern New South Wales.

Most of the rapeseed varieties grown in Australia were open-pollinated. To obtain higher yields and improve disease resistance, Pacific Seeds had decided, in the late 1970s, to move away from open-pollinated and towards hybrid rapeseed varieties. Hyola 40, one of the hybrid varieties bred by Pacific Seeds, was available in these northern or shorter season areas. Unfortunately, it was susceptible to disease (blackleg) and its market penetration was short lived.

As regards yield, the varieties best suited to Australian conditions appeared to be those from Japan. The Chinese varieties, which are based on Japanese varieties, were known to grow well in Australia despite the shorter growing season here. Also seen as an advantage was the vigorous growth habit of the Chinese varieties, their greater numbers of side branches providing yield stability in shorter season regions. Also, the germplasm from China was expected to increase the characters available to the Australian breeders in the production of hybrids.

In 1980 (before ACIAR had been established), an Australian mission to China visited the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences and the Jiangsu Academy of Agricultural Sciences at Nanjing. The Chinese were interested in the Australian double-low breeding procedures and screening methods. In 1981, a visit by Pacific Seeds personnel to China maintained contacts and discussed methods of breeding double-low varieties.

A visit to Australia by the Chinese plant breeders followed in 1983 and a decision in principle was made by Pacific Seeds in 1983 to work with the Chinese. The Chinese were most interested in quality analysis, especially how to measure glucosinolates and erucic acid contents when breeding for double-lows. They were keen to change from double-high to double-low varieties of rapeseed.

Pre-project planning focused on plant breeding . In 1985–86 the first ACIAR project was implemented. It was to involve collaboration on germplasm exchange and breeding technologies, development of equipment, and training. As elaborated later, the focus of the work changed as the projects developed.

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4. Project Outputs and Outcomes for China

Development of Open-pollinated, Double-low Varieties

The most significant output for China as a result of the ACIAR projects has been the successful breeding in China, and the release there, of four open-pollinated varieties yielding double-low rapeseed: Zhong Shuang Nos 1–4.

The most successful of these new varieties is Zhong Shuang No. 4. About 3.4 million mu or 227,000 ha (1 ha = 15 mu) were planted to this variety in the 1996–97 season and somewhat more in 1997–98. The reasons for success of Zhong Shuang No. 4 are its adaptability, resistance to disease, and higher oil content (3–5% increase) compared with traditional varieties. It has the same or a slightly higher seed yield than the traditional, double-high variety that it displaced. There are more open-pollinated varieties to be released in the next five years.

The area of open-pollinated, double low varieties harvested by year is shown in Table 1.

Table 1. Areas sown to new open-pollinated, double-low rapeseed varieties in China

The new varieties became available in about 1990. The Hubei Crops Variety Examination and Approval Committee subsequently approved their release. Most varieties were released around 1993, with release dates varying by province.

The ACIAR projects transferred to IOCR the plant-breeding skills that allowed the Institute to build capacity and obtain additional resources from the Chinese Government, particularly for the development of disease-

Year ending 30 June Area (million mu)

a

1994 0.5

1995 1.2

1996 2.0

1997 3.4

1998 3.5

b

a

15 mu = 1 ha

b

Estimate

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resistance varieties, though this did entail the use of predominantly Chinese germplasm and some genetic material from Poland.

That Australian germplasm was not used in the development of the open-pollinated varieties is immaterial. What the ACIAR projects provided was the science and technology , particularly in relation to measuring and analysing glucosinolates and erucic acid. The ACIAR projects also provided equipment and training for rapeseed improvement. These contributions helped the Chinese breed the double-low varieties. The staff of IOCR concur that the new varieties are a direct result of the Australia–China collaboration.

While Zhong Shuang No. 4 has a higher oil content, processors generally do not pay farmers on the basis of oil content. Hence, in many cases the additional oil content benefits the purchaser of the seed, rather than the farmer. In fact, farmers can be actually worse off growing the new varieties because of their higher seed cost and only marginally improved seed yields. The fact that their seed is not commonly segregated from other seed when it reaches the processor means that they are not paid for its higher oil content or higher value meal.

There is no price control over commercial products from rapeseed. There is a minimum price for grains, but not for rapeseed. The control of varieties is to some extent influenced by IOCR and the seed companies. This applies to both open-pollinated varieties and the hybrid varieties that are now being developed.

Local governments have told farmers of the benefits of Zhong Shuang No. 4 and farmers are now testing it in many areas. In general, there is no local government policy covering quality control or incentives for better quality. For the most part, farmers are growing the new varieties because they have to. In many cases, they do not know about the (currently uncaptured) benefits of the new variety. Understandably, there is some resistance from farmers and the extension effort needed to implement more widespread use of the new varieties is considerable.

The payment of a premium to farmers for growing the new, double-low varieties is dependent on processors segregating their seed and, in turn, capturing a higher price for the additional oil content, the low erucic acid oil, or the lower glucosinolate oil. This is often difficult because of the small amounts of seed delivered to the processing plants, the yields of areas as small as 2–5 mu per farm. Some segregation is occurring in several provinces but the proportion of the total production of the new varieties that is subject to segregation is still quite low.

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IOCR is working with some local governments to encourage adoption of the new varieties and some incentive schemes have been developed. One incentive is to pay farmers a higher price for the seed, based mainly on higher oil content. This is occurring in at least two crushing plants in Hubei Province, one a government-owned processing unit, the other a farmer cooperative. In one county in Hubei Province, the segregated, low erucic acid oil is being marketed and promoted, but on the basis of its better flavour and colour rather than health attributes.

There are no health regulations covering the level of erucic acid in rapeseed oil used for cooking in China. The retail price of the low erucic acid oil has been set higher than other oils and this in itself contributes to its positioning as a higher quality oil. Government has also begun providing information to the public on the advantages of low erucic acid oils. It is likely that the trend to low erucic oils will continue, albeit slowly.

Table 2 shows the extent of areas where the new, double-low rapeseed varieties were being segregrated in 1996–97.

Table 2.

Areas in Yangtse Valley where double-low rapeseed varieties were segregated in 1996–97

Of the estimated 720,000 mu (48,000 ha) where segregation is occurring, approximately 20% is associated with IOCR activities, as a result of which farmers are receiving some incentive, mainly through a 10% price

Province Area of new varieties (mu)

a

Provinces in Central Valley

Hubei 115,000

Jiang Xi 145,000

Hunan 65,000

Anhui 40,000

Shanghai 10,000

Jiangsu 10,000

Zhejiang 10,000

Subtotal 395,000

Provinces in Upper Reaches

Guizhou 70,000

Yunan 200,000

Sichuan 55,000

Subtotal 325,000

TOTAL 720,000

a

15 mu = 1 ha

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premium for seed. This premium is thus applicable to about 144,000 mu (9,600 ha) of rapeseed.

For the remaining 80% of the new variety area where segregation is occurring (mainly at smaller processing plants where segregation is easier), the farmers have the choice of retaining ownership of the oil and the meal after paying a processing charge. An increasing proportion of farmers is choosing to retain ownership. In these cases, the farmers can achieve higher net revenue for their produce. Not only can they derive more oil from the higher oil content of the new variety, but also they can obtain a price for their rapeseed meal that is 10–20% higher than the price paid for high glucosinolate meal used only as fertiliser. Indeed, more and more farmers are using their low glucosinolate meal as feed for their own animals (mainly pigs, chickens, fish and cows). Where the farmer does not return meal as fertiliser to the soil, more chemical fertiliser may have to be purchased but this would be at no greater net cost to the farmer for delivery of the same nutrients.

Hence, there are two mechanisms whereby farmers are receiving benefits from the new varieties:

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where a price incentive has been supported; and

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where the farmer has been allowed to retain ownership of the meal and the oil.

For the remainder of the area of new, open-pollinated varieties, the farmers growing them are not necessarily obtaining any direct benefit. Benefits are accruing to the processors and marketers.

In addition, in one province (Yunan) where about 200,000 mu (13,300 ha) of the new variety Zhong Shuang No. 1 are grown, there has been a seed yield increase rather than a price or oil content increase.

Gross margin budgets for the traditional variety and Zhong Shuang No. 4 are given in Appendix 1.

Development of Hybrid Varieties

A second output associated with the ACIAR projects has been the recent development of a hybrid rapeseed variety that contains 50% Australian genetic material. The hybrid (Zhong You Zha 93-1) was released in 1998. Another four promising hybrids are in train. Zhong You Zha 93-1 yields up to 10% more seed than the traditional double-high varieties, although the seed cost is higher.

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The area of the hybrid rapeseed harvested in 1998 was 500–600 mu (33–40 ha), and there were 30,000 mu (2,000 ha) sown to be harvested in May 1999. The commercial area will increase sharply again in the future as 2,700 mu (180 ha) have been sown in 1998 for plant seed production for harvest in May 1999. This area will provide about 150,000 kg of seed, sufficient to plant about 600,000 mu by direct sowing, that is about 40,000 ha in 1999.

A gross margin for producing the hybrid variety Zhong You Zha 93-1 is given in Appendix 1.

Other Outputs

Other outputs from the ACIAR projects include enhanced experience with alternative testing methods and the development of scientific capacity and infrastructure at IOCR.

Scientists at IOCR have continued to use the tape method developed in the project for the testing of glucosinolates. The other technology partially developed by the ACIAR projects (a form of ‘glucose meter’) required specialised equipment and was unreliable. A rapid, automated method for commercial testing in the factory remains a requirement. This is now being addressed at the Institute and the knowledge produced by the ACIAR projects CS1/1984/069 and CS1/1988/039 is being seen as extremely valuable in this work.

The capabilities and capacity built at IOCR over the past decade are seen by the Chinese as arising from the ACIAR projects. The ACIAR projects have resulted in increased funding for IOCR from the Chinese Government, resulting in growth and improved performance of the Institute

The Future

Rape is planted in China during September–October, and harvested in about May. The winter crop makes up 90% of the Chinese total and the Yangtse Valley area 80% of the total winter crop. Eighty percent of this is in the Central Valley area. Hence, of the 102 million mu (6.8 million ha) planted to rapeseed in China in 1997, approximately 75 million mu (5 million ha) is in the Yangtse Valley area. As the Yangtse Valley is predominantly a summer-cropping area, there are many hectares of land lying idle in winter which could be planted to rapeseed with no effect on

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crops planted in spring (e.g. rice from seedlings prepared in nurseries). Therefore, the degree of expansion of winter-grown rapeseed in the future could be considerable. One estimate is that the increase could potentially be as much as a further 240 million mu (16 million ha) grown in the Yangtse River area (including the Yellow River area) by the year 2030, an increase from the 102 million mu (6.8 million ha) currently grown in China.

IOCR staff predict that there is likely to be a large increase in plantings of the new open-pollinated varieties after 2000. They estimate that the new varieties associated with the ACIAR projects could contribute 30–40% of all winter-grown rapeseed in the Central Valley region. This would mean about 18–24 million mu (1.2–1.6 million ha), compared with about 3.5 million mu (230,000 ha) grown in 1997–98.

The Chinese Government is now paying more attention to double-low rapeseed varieties and has plans to integrate their production, processing and distribution into one system. The oil and seed are already in demand. Demand for protein feed for animals is also increasing, especially in the Central Yangtse Valley area where soybean production is low and rapeseed meal is seen as an important animal feed for the future.

Imports and Exports

China has imported in the order of 2 million tonnes of vegetable oils, including palm and soybean oils, in recent years, rising to 3 million tonnes in 1997–98, with another 0.5 million tonnes imported through ‘non-official’ sources. Depending on the substitution between oil types, domestic rapeseed oil could replace a large amount of this. Rapeseed is also imported into China, some of it from Australia.

China still hopes to export rapeseed oil to Japan now that it is producing low erucic oils. The Japanese are interested in the Yangtse Valley area as an alternative to Canada as a source of oil.

Overall, the ACIAR projects have been associated with a number of significant outputs, many of which have already been translated into successful outcomes and very significant benefits to China, with even greater benefits likely in the future. The proportion of benefits actually captured by small farmers is still not high but is increasing as segregation of varieties increases and as other policy and marketing strategies are implemented.

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5. Project Outputs and Outcomes for Australia

For Australia, the key output from the ACIAR projects is the new, higher-yielding hybrids developed by Pacific Seeds based on the germplasm contributed from IOCR in China.

Two new hybrids were developed: an early-maturing type (Hyola 42) and a mid-maturing type (Hyola 51), both released in 1992. A later-maturing hybrid was also planned but did not eventuate, because of problems in seed production for the other two hybrids. Both hybrids developed were higher yielding (approximately 10%) than the existing open-pollinated varieties, but the level of resistance of the new hybrids to blackleg disease was low and yields fell when disease pressure was high.

The new hybrids were stronger and bushier, particularly suiting them to the shorter season areas of Australian rapeseed production, i.e. northern and drier southern areas. Also, disease was less of a problem in the drier areas. Hyola 42 was more successful than Hyola 51 and produced a higher and more stable yield. Hyola 42 achieved a market share in the mid-1990s of as much as 70% of the shorter season market. One of the two parents (the B line) for each of Hyola 42 and 51 was developed with germplasm obtained through the ACIAR projects.

Unfortunately, the hybridisation system used in the projects was not able to reliably produce commercial quantities of seed of sufficient genetic purity. Commercial production of seed for Hyola 42 and 51 was limited by self-pollination, particularly when the plants were heat or cold stressed. While seed could be produced reasonably successfully during summer in Tasmania and Canada, production was still rather erratic and seed was sometimes produced only just in time for sale. This made production of seed costly and quantities available unpredictable. In turn, this lowered the adoption rate and hence the market share that the hybrids could achieve.

Another factor limiting the penetration of Hyola 42 and Hyola 51 was the development of new, open-pollinated varieties tolerant to triazine herbicide. Those varieties permit selective chemical control of weeds, particularly wild radish, in Western Australia. They have proven very popular and have taken about 60% of the market from Hyola 42.

Pacific Seeds introduced a new hybridisation system (INRA-Ogura) in 1991. This halted the flow of new products from the company, and it has

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not yet resumed. Nevertheless, new hybrids based on the Chinese germplasm and produced under the new hybridisation system are likely to be released at some future time.

The outcomes of the ACIAR projects for Australia were that two hybrids were developed which captured some market share of the expanding rapeseed production in Australia in the 1990s. The hybrids were associated with a cost reduction in producing rapeseed because of their higher yield. This occurred despite the higher price of seed for the hybrid type. However, for the various reasons already discussed, the market share of the hybrids could not be sustained and has declined to low levels at present. Their production for the Australian market will probably cease in the near future.

In addition, the growth habit of the two hybrids is now incorporated in a number of open-pollinated rapeseed varieties that have been produced in Australia.

6. Project Outputs and Outcomes for the Rest of the World

This assessment focuses on benefits accruing to China and Australia from research undertaken in projects CS1/1984/069 and CS1/1988/039. However, apart from benefits being captured by Australia and China, it is apparent that benefits are also accruing to the rest of the world from the hybrids developed under the ACIAR projects. This section briefly discusses these benefits but, because there is as yet insufficient information, does not provide estimates of monetary returns.

Some Hyola 42 seed was exported from Australia to South Africa initially but the production of seed for that market is now undertaken in Canada. Approximately 40 tonnes of Hyola 42 was exported from Canada to South Africa in the 1999 season.

In addition, there are three hybrids produced and sold in Canada by a sister company to Pacific Seeds. These hybrids have been derived from one of the lines developed in the ACIAR projects

.

About 2000 tonnes of seed from the hybrids is sold in Canada and the USA. Despite the problems with the hybridisation system mentioned earlier, these three hybrids have captured about 15% of market share in Canada. Canada dominates world exports of rapeseed (about 50% of world trade). With 18% of total world

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production, Canada is one of the three largest producers. It is likely that the 15% market share of the three hybrids would constitute over 900 million tonnes of rapeseed being produced from genetic material developed under the ACIAR projects. Because Pacific Seeds is foreign owned, there is no royalty stream back to Australia from any of these sales.

7. Investment Analysis

A benefit–cost analysis was undertaken for the investment in the two ACIAR projects. Benefits were identified separately for China and Australia. The analysis covers a 30-year period commencing in the year when the first project commenced (1985–86). All benefits and costs were expressed in 1996–97-dollar terms. The discount rate used was 5% and all costs and benefits were discounted to 1996–97. Conservative estimates were used at all times.

Details of the investment costs, assumptions on which benefits were based, and the results of the analyses, including sensitivity analyses, follow.

Project Costs

Table 3 gives total project costs.

In addition to the ACIAR costs reported in Table 3, a further $34019 (1996–97 $ terms) per annum expenditure by Pacific Seeds to cover salaries and communication costs has been included each year from the start of the project (1985–86) to the year in which the hybrids were released (1992–93).

There were two sets of additional costs in China associated with producing the outcomes from the projects. Firstly, there were additional research costs incurred by the IOCR in working with the ACIAR-supported breeding program. R&D continued after the ACIAR projects were completed, when the IOCR researchers worked closely with a range of local governments to promote the benefits of the new, open-pollinated varieties.. Further, the first hybrid based on the Australian germplasm has been released only in the past two years, so that there was a significant amount of research undertaken after the end of the ACIAR projects to develop this hybrid. The scientists at IOCR therefore made a high level of additional input.

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Table 3. Total expenditure on projects by ACIAR, Pacific Seeds and the Oilseeds Research Institute

(A$1996/97)

It was assumed that all eight personnel of IOCR associated with rapeseed breeding were involved in supporting the ACIAR projects and their outcomes. A scientist year was valued at 60,000 Yuan [$1AU

»

6.4 Yuan]. This is assumed to cover salary, housing and other Institute-supported living expenses, and science support and overheads such as laboratories and consumables. From 1994–95 onwards, the total input was assumed to fall as scientists moved to other work such as the additional hybrids and other open-pollinated varieties that have not been included in the outputs from the ACIAR projects.

Secondly, the extension personnel in the various provinces provided additional input. Although these extension personnel would still have been working with rapeseed had there been no ACIAR project, there were some additional costs associated with rapeseed extension that should be costed against the ACIAR project outcomes. It was assumed that:

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an extension person costs about 7,200 Yuan per annum;

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the marginal cost of the extension of the open-pollinated varieties and the hybrids amounted to an additional 10% of costs per extension officer; and

Year ending 30 June ACIAR Project CS1/1984/069a

ACIAR Project CS1/1988/039a

Pacific Seedsb IOCR research and extension costs c

Total costs

1986 89355 0 34019 72699 196073

1987 125148 0 34019 72699 231866

1988 110896 0 34019 72699 217614

1989 34848 32133 34019 72699 173699

1990 0 83730 34019 72699 190448

1991 0 66337 34019 72699 173055

1992 0 19044 34019 72699 125762

1993 0 0 34019 72699 106718

1994 0 0 0 138128 138128

1995 0 0 0 123588 123588

1996 0 0 0 109049 109049

1997 0 0 0 94509 94509

1998 0 0 0 79969 79969

TOTAL 360247 201244 272152 1126835 1960478

Sources: aACIAR project documents bEstimates by Pacific SeedscEstimates by IOCR

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K 600 extension-officers were involved across all provinces where the varieties were being introduced.

The estimated additional research and extension costs by year are summarised in Table 3.

Estimation of Benefits to China

Benefits to China included in the analysis were those from the open-pollinated varieties and some minor benefits accruing to date from the release of the one hybrid variety.

Open-pollinated Varieties

Assumptions used in the estimation of benefits from open-pollinated varieties in China are shown in Table 4. Four types of benefits were estimated separately:

K benefits from the price increase achieved by farmers where IOCR was operating;

K benefits from increased seed yield in one province;

K benefits for farmers where they were retaining ownership of the oil and the meal; and

K benefits from the higher oil content of the new varieties that were not captured by farmers.

The benefits to farmers where there were price increases stimulated by the IOCR activities in areas where varieties were being segregated, were estimated through the additional revenue gained by farmers less the additional costs they incurred in growing the new varieties (the additional cost of seed for planting).

Benefits from the increased seed yield in Yunan Province were estimated through a cost reduction estimate that included both variable and fixed costs.

22



Table 4. Assumptions for estimating benefits from open pollinated varieties

Assumption ValuePrice increase benefits

Area of open-pollinated varieties that is segregated in processing (mu) 720,000a

Proportion of above area to which price increase applies (%) 20Cost of traditional seed for planting (yuan per kg) 5Cost of new variety seed for planting (yuan per kg) 12Direct seeding rate for both traditional and new varieties (kg per mu) 0.5Fertiliser, pesticide and labour cost increases for new variety (% per mu) 0Additional cost of producing new variety (yuan per mu) 3.5Average price for traditional seed product (yuan per kg) 2Level of price increase for new product (%) 10b

Yield for both traditional and new varieties (kg per mu) 133Seed yield increase

Area to which seed yield increase applies (mu) 200,000Yield of traditional variety (kg per mu) 140Yield of Zhong Shuang No 1 (kg per mu) 154Cost of production of traditional variety (yuan per ha) 2338.24Cost of production of new variety (yuan per ha) 2390.74Cost reduction (yuan per kg) 0.078

Retention of ownership of oil and meal productsArea of open-pollinated varieties that is segregated during processing (mu, 1996–97) 720,000Proportion of area to which retention by farmer of ownership of oil and meal applies (%) 16Oil concentration, traditional variety (%) 34.0Oil concentration, new variety (based on a 4% increase) (%) 35.36Value of oil (yuan per kg) 7Yield of seed (kg per mu) 133Contract rate for processing (yuan per 100 kg seed) 20Value of low glucosinolate meal (yuan per kg) 1.1c

Value of seed (yuan per kg) 2Cost of taking ownership and marketing (yuan per 100 kg) 30

Higher oil content not captured by farmers but by othersTotal area of new, open-pollinated varieties (million mu in 1996/97) 3.4Total area of new, open-pollinated varieties that are not segregated (million mu 1996–97) 2.68Total area of new open pollinated varieties that is segregated but where farmers do not benefit from higher oil content (million mu in 1996–97)

0.64

Oil concentration, traditional variety (%) 34Oil concentration, new variety (%) 35.36Value of oil (yuan per kg) 7Yield of seed (kg per mu) 133Value of seed (yuan per kg) 2

a 15 mu = 1 hab The additional price received for the low erucic acid oil marketed in one region is already included in the 10% increase in the price of seed received in the various areas under control of IOCR. This increase in price will cover: the 4% increase in the oil content, any margin in the value of oil due to its low erucic acid content, and the 10–20% increase in the value of the meal.c This is the government price; the actual free market price is higher due to the fact that other protein meal (e.g. soybean meal) is in short supply in the Central Valley area.

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Where farmers were retaining ownership of the oil and the meal (where varieties were segregated), the additional gross revenue from the sale of these products was estimated through comparisons with the revenue that would have been received had the rapeseed itself been sold. The additional costs of processing paid by the farmer were subtracted from this additional gross revenue received.

Finally, where segregation was not occurring, or where segregation was occurring but farmers were not taking oil and meal ownership, benefits were estimated by simply valuing the additional oil content of the new varieties.

Hybrids

Benefits from the increased seed yield of the hybrid variety produced and released in China were estimated through a cost reduction estimate that included both variable and fixed costs. Assumptions used in the estimation of benefits are in Table 5.

Table 5. Assumptions for estimating benefits from Chinese hybrids

Estimation of Benefits to Australia

Tables 6, 7 and 8 show the assumptions used in the estimation of benefits for the hybrids released in Australia. Pacific Seeds provided most of these assumptions. Assumptions are presented for each of the two production zones, in accord with the market share captured by the two hybrids that were developed.

The cost reductions estimated in Table 6 were applied to the quantities of the new hybrids produced as estimated in Tables 7 and 8.

Assumption Value

Area of hybrid 1998 harvest (mu) 600a

Area of hybrid 1999 harvest (estimate) (mu) 30000

Yield of traditional variety (kg per mu) 133

Commercial yield increase (%) 8

Cost of production of traditional variety (yuan per ha) 2338.24

Cost of production of new hybrid (yuan per ha) 2413.24

Cost reduction for new hybrid (yuan per kg) 0.052

Cost reduction (yuan per mu) 6.917a 15 mu = 1 ha

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Table 6. Assumptions for estimating benefits from Australian hybrids

Table 7. Australian rapeseed production by zone

Assumption Value

Short season zone

Yield increase (%) 10

Cost of new hybrid seed ($ per kg) 10

Cost of open-pollinated seed ($ per kg) 2.80

Sowing rate for open-pollinated variety (kg per ha) 4

Sowing rate for hybrid varieties (kg per ha) 3

Cost of production ($ per ha) See Appendix 2 232.20

Cost of production ($ per tonne) See Appendix 2 232.20

Cost reduction ($ per tonne) 9.47

Mid season zone

Yield increase (%) 10

Cost of new hybrid seed (per kg) 10

Cost of open-pollinated seed ($ per kg) 2.80

Sowing rate for open-pollinated variety (kg per ha) 4

Sowing rate for hybrid varieties (kg per ha) 3

Cost of production ($ per ha) See Appendix 2 221.20

Cost of production ($ per tonne) See Appendix 2 110.60

Cost reduction ($ per tonne) 1.51

Year Australia Short season zone Medium season zone

Productiona (tonnes)

Productionb (%)

Production (tonnes) Productiona (%)

Production (tonnes)

1991–92 170,000 10 17,000 90 153,000

1992–93 177,900 13 23,127 87 154,773

1993–94 305,000 16 48,800 84 256,200

1994–95 263,900 20 52,780 80 211,120

1995–96 557,100 25 139,275 75 417,825

1996–97 641,800 30 192,540 70 449,260

1997–98 860,000 35 301,000 65 559,000

Sources: aAustralian Commodity Statistics bEstimate by Pacific Seeds and Agtrans

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Table 8. Estimates of market shares of the new hybrids

Attribution of Benefits

The ACIAR projects contributed to the development of the double-low, open-pollinated varieties and to the hybrids that have been released to date in China. Because Canadian, Polish and Chinese germplasm was involved as well as Chinese, Canadian and Australian expertise, it is difficult to apportion the benefits to each of the three parties. The simple approach adopted is to ascribe one-third of the benefits to each of the efforts made by the three parties (Canadian, Australian and Chinese).

For the Australian benefits, a 50% attribution to the ACIAR projects has been assumed. This was in accord with the simple assumption that one of the two hybrid parents was based on the Chinese germplasm.

Implications for Prices

The increasing Australian production and export of rapeseed during the 1990s has been associated with reasonably constant world prices. Further, the increased quantities of rapeseed produced in Australia as a result of the cost reductions produced by the ACIAR projects have been very small and are therefore unlikely to have caused any price reductions in the Australian or world markets. For example, the maximum level of production from the two hybrids would have been in the year ended June 1998 and nearly all of this would have been from the short season variety Hyola 42, about 90,000 tonnes. The additional production of rapeseed due to the yield improvement from Hyola 42 would have been only about 9,000 tonnes in that year, as against a total Australian production in the short season zone of about 300,000 tonnes. An additional area of rapeseed may also have

Year Short season zone Medium Season zone

Production(tonnes)

Market share (%) Production(tonnes)

Market share (%)

1991–92 17,000 0 153,000 0

1992–93 23,127 70 154,773 5

1993–94 48,800 70 256,200 10

1994–95 52,780 70 211,120 2

1995–96 139,275 60 417,825 2

1996–97 192,540 40 449,260 0.5

1997–98 301,000 30 559,000 0.5

Source: Estimates of market shares by Pacific Seeds

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been grown in that year as a result of the cost reduction. However, this is not likely to have been very significant given the magnitude of the cost reduction in relation to price (say 3%) and assuming a moderate elasticity of supply of 1.0. Given these assumptions, the additional rapeseed production in the year ended June 1998 may have been less than 20,000 tonnes.

In that year Australia exported over 500,000 tonnes of rapeseed amid a total annual world trade of about 4.5 million tonnes. Therefore, the additional quantity of rapeseed produced in Australia because of the yield increase and the cost reduction has been small and any world price impact would have been minimal, irrespective of the price elasticity of demand faced in world markets.

Of potential importance to the world price in the future is the increased amount of rapeseed produced in China attributable to the ACIAR projects. Higher production of oil in China due to the ACIAR projects may well restrict future imports or even encourage exports, so contributing to lower world prices.

The magnitude of the impact of the ACIAR projects on international rapeseed prices, and on individual country production and trade, will depend on the respective elasticities of supply and demand in producing and trading countries.

Results

Detailed results of the economic analysis are shown in Appendix 3. Table 9 provides a summary.

Table 9. Estimates of investment criteria for ACIAR rapeseed projects (discount rate is 5%) (1996 $)

The sources of benefits are shown in Table 10.

Net present value(A$ million as of 1996)

Benefit–cost ratio Internal rate of return (%)

Estimated over 30 years from 1985–86

34 14 33

Estimated over 13 year period 1985–86 to 1998–99

9 4 28

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Table 10. Source of benefits by country

The sensitivity of the investment parameters to the discount rate is shown in Table 11.

Table 11, Sensitivity of investment criteria to discount rate

Excluded from the above analyses are the benefits to the rest of the world.

The investment criteria for the current (1999) analysis are generally lower than those estimated in 1991. For example, the net present value (NPV) of the projects as estimated in 1991 was A$41 million as opposed to $34 million estimated in 1999. However, the comparisons are not particularly meaningful because:

K 1991 results were reported in 1990–91 dollar terms, whereas 1999 results are reported in 1996–97 dollar terms;

K the NPVs referred to 1985 in the case of the 1991 analysis and 1996 in the case of the 1999 analysis;

K the discount rates used were 10% in 1991 and 5% in 1999;

K the 1991 analysis projected forward benefits 20 years while the 1999 analysis projected forward 30 years;

K the 1991 analysis assumed the principal benefit was from a speeding-up of the impact in China from the ACIAR projects, whereas the 1999 analysis assumed a percentage of the benefits was directly attributable to the ACIAR projects.

Source of benefits Present value as of 1996

A$ million (1996 $) % of total benefits

Chinese benefits 35 95

Australian benefits 2 5

Total benefits 37 100

Discount rate 0% 5% 10%

Net present value (A$ million) over 30 years 51 34 25

Benefit–cost ratio over 30 years 27 14 8

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Apart from these framework changes, a number of other, more specific, factors contributed to the changes in results. For Australia, the yield increase estimates for the hybrids were less than expected (10% instead of 20% assumed in 1991). Also, the cost of production of rapeseed in 1991 was assumed to be higher than in 1999 so that the impact assumed of the yield increase was also higher per tonne at that time. Market share estimates were lower in the 1999 analysis, although the quantity of rapeseed produced in Australia during the later 1990s was greater than expected in 1991.

For China, different benefits were expected in 1991 than those assumed in 1999. In particular, the benefits associated with lowering the glucosinolate levels in the meal were lower in the 1999 analysis, because of difficulties in segregating the higher value meal. Also, not only were the seed yield increases expected in 1991 from the new varieties greater (5–10%) than those assumed in 1999 (0% in most cases), the adoption rates for new varieties produced from the ACIAR projects have been lower than originally expected. This was because of the difficulty in segregating seed from the new varieties at the processing plants, a factor which prevented the majority of farmers capturing benefits from the increased oil yield exhibited by the new varieties (as opposed to any seed yield increases—the amount of seed being the factor on which they are predominantly paid).

8. Conclusion

The NPV of A$34 million shows that the ACIAR investment has provided significant benefits, particularly to China, with minimal benefits to Australia. If benefits are only considered up to and including only 1998–99, the total NPV is still positive at A$9 million, with a benefit–cost ratio of 4. The benefits to the rest of the world, which have not been included in this estimate, might be considerable.

Acknowledgments

I am very grateful to the following personnel associated with the Oil Crops Research Institute for their cooperation and assistance in Wuhan, China, and for the valuable discussions held with them regarding the impact of the ACIAR projects.

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K Han-Zhong Wang, Oilseed Breeder and Vice Director General of the Oil Crops Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Wuhan, Hubei Province

K Xu Zeyong, Director of the Key Laboratory of Genetic Improvement of Oil Crops

K Liu Cheng Qing, Ex-Project Leader/Breeder, and ex-Director, Rapeseed Department

K Shi-Duo Wang, Economist

K Liao Xing, Director of Research Department

K Yuan-Ben Geeing, Rapeseed Breeder

K Chun-Hua Wang, Rapeseed Researcher

K You Ju Huang

K Liu Ze, Rapeseed Researcher

I also thank Anita Dalakoti, ACIAR, Beijing, China for her assistance in Wuhan.

I also acknowledge with thanks the assistance of several people associated with the Australian rapeseed industry :

K Andrew Easton, Pacific Seeds

K Stephen Marcroft, Victorian Institute for Dryland Agriculture

K Paul Carmody, Western Australian Department of Agriculture

K John Lamont, Canola Association of Australia

K Paul Parker, NSW Department of Agriculture

References

Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (ABARE) 1995. Australian farm surveys report: financial performance of Australian farms 1995–96. Canberra, ABARE.

—1998. Australian farm surveys report: financial performance of Australian farms 1997–98. Canberra, ABARE.

Chudleigh, P.D. 1991 Breeding and quality analysis of canola (rapeseed). ACIAR Economic Assessment Series No. 6.

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APPENDIX 1 Costs of production for traditional variety, Zhong Shuang No. 4 and Zhong You Zha 93-1

Traditional variety (direct seeding) Yuan per ha

Cost of seed 0.5 kg per mu 7.5 kg per ha @ 5 yuan per kg 37.5Cost of fertiliser 750.0Cost of pesticides 225.0Cost of labour 975.0Fixed costsa 350.74Total cost 2338.24

Revenue 2000 kg per ha @2.0 yuan per kg 4000.0

Net margin 1661.76

a Fixed costs were estimated as 15% of total costs of production, based on the proportion of fixed costs in the Australian cost of production. The fixed costs for the China production system might be less than that for Australia because of the manner in which capital investment in land is treated and the relatively lower investment in capital equipment associated with labour-intensive production systems.

Zhong Shuang No. 4 (direct seeding and no price premium or retained ownership)

Cost of seed 0.5 kg per mu 7.5 kg per ha @12 yuan per kg 90.0Cost of fertiliser 750.0Cost of pesticides 225.0Cost of labour 975.0Fixed costs 350.74Total cost 2390.74


Net margin 1609.26

Zhong You Zha 93-1 hybrid (direct seeding)

Cost of seed 0.25 kg per mu 3.75 kg per ha @30 yuan per kg 112.5Cost of fertiliser 750.0Cost of pesticides 225.0Cost of labour 975.0Fixed costs 350.74Total cost 2413.24


Net margin 1906.76

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APPENDIX 2 Cost of production for rapeseed in Australia

Short season areas – former variety

$ per haCost of seed bed preparation 10Cost of seed 4 kg @$2.80 per kilo 11.20Fertiliser 84Herbicides 42Sowing 4Insecticides 6Harvesting 37Insurance 4Fixed costsa 34Total costs 232.20Yield 1 tonne per hectareCost of production 232.20 $ per tonne

Source: Based on gross margins budgets supplied by Victorian Institute of Dryland Agriculturea Based on ABARE (1995), and includes cost categories of other materials, rates, interest and rent.

Short season areas – new hybrid

$ per haCost of seed bed preparation 10Cost of seed 3 kg @$10 per kilo 30.00Fertiliser 84Herbicides 42Sowing 4Insecticides 6Harvesting 37Insurance 4Fixed costs (a) 34Total costs 245Yield 1.10 tonnes per hectareCost of production 222.73 $ per tonne


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Medium season areas – former variety

$ per haCost of seed bed preparation 11Cost of seed 4 kg @$2.80 per kilo 11.20Fertiliser 72Herbicides 39Sowing 3Insecticides 5Harvesting 36Insurance 10Fixed costs (a) 34Total costs 221.20Yield 2 tonnes per hectareCost of production 110.60 $ per tonne

Source: Based on gross margins budgets supplied by Victorian Institute of Dryland AgricultureBased on ABARE (1995), and includes cost categories of other materials, rates, interest and rent.

Medium season areas – new hybrid

$ per haCost of seed bed preparation 11Cost of seed 3 kg @$10 per kilo 30.00Fertiliser 72Herbicides 39Sowing 3Insecticides 5Harvesting 36Insurance 10Fixed costs (a) 34Total costs 240Yield 2.20 tonnes per hectareCost of production 109.09 $ per tonne


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APPENDIX 3. Detailed results from the economic assessment of ACIAR-supported projects CS1/1984/069 and CS1/1988/039

Year number

Year ending 30 June

China benefits in 1999 Yuan (’000 Yuan)

China benefits in Australian

dollars(A$ 1999

Inflation adjustment

factor –consumer price index

China benefits Adjusted

A$1996/97

Discount factor at

5%

Discounted China benefits

A$

Discounted China benefits attributed to

ACIAR

1 1986 0 0 75.6 0 1.71 0 0

2 1987 0 0 82.6 0 1.63 0 0

3 1988 0 0 88.5 0 1.55 0 0

4 1989 0 0 95.2 0 1.48 0 0

5 1990 0 0 102.5 0 1.41 0 0

6 1991 0 0 106.0 0 1.34 0 0

7 1992 0 0 107.3 0 1.28 0 0

8 1993 0 0 109.3 0 1.22 0 0

9 1994 7142541 1102482 111.2 1081783 1.16 1439853 479903

10 1995 17142099 2645957 116.2 2596278 1.10 3141497 1047061

11 1996 28570165 4409929 119.8 4327130 1.05 4759843 1586456

12 1997 48569280 7496879 120.2 7356121 1.00 7356121 2451795

13 1998 49997789 7717375 121.0 7572478 0.95 6884071 2294461

14 1999 50205306 7749407 122.5 7603908 0.91 6284221 2094531

15 2000 50412823 7781438 122.5 7635337 0.86 5736542 1911989

16 2001 50412823 7781438 122.5 7635337 0.82 5215038 1738172

17 2002 50412823 7781438 122.5 7635337 0.78 4740944 1580157

18 2003 50412823 7781438 122.5 7635337 0.75 4309949 1436506

19 2004 50412823 7781438 122.5 7635337 0.71 3918135 1305915

20 2005 50412823 7781438 122.5 7635337 0.68 3561941 1187195

21 2006 50412823 7781438 122.5 7635337 0.64 3238128 1079268

22 2007 50412823 7781438 122.5 7635337 0.61 2943753 981153

23 2008 50412823 7781438 122.5 7635337 0.58 2676139 891957

24 2009 50412823 7781438 122.5 7635337 0.56 2432854 810870

25 2010 50412823 7781438 122.5 7635337 0.53 2211685 737155

26 2011 50412823 7781438 122.5 7635337 0.51 2010623 670141

27 2012 50412823 7781438 122.5 7635337 0.48 1827839 609219

28 2013 50412823 7781438 122.5 7635337 0.46 1661672 553835

29 2014 50412823 7781438 122.5 7635337 0.44 1510611 503487

30 2015 50412823 7781438 122.5 7635337 0.42 1373283 457715

Total over 30 years 105179868 35056450

Total over 20 years 65274739 21756070

Total over 14 years – to 1999 30123155 10040048

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Appendix 3, cont.

Year number

Year ending 30

June

Benefits to Australia

$AU (1998–99)


adjusted for inflation

$AU(1996–97)


discounted at 5%

(1996–97as the base

year)


due to the ACIAR projects

Benefits to China and

Australia due to the ACIAR projects

Total discounteed

research costs

Net benefits to China and

Australia due to the ACIAR

projects

1 1986 0 0 0 0 0 335351 –335351

2 1987 0 0 0 0 0 377685 –377685

3 1988 0 0 0 0 0 337591 –337591

4 1989 0 0 0 0 0 256633 –256633

5 1990 0 0 0 0 0 267979 –267979

6 1991 0 0 0 0 0 231910 –231910

7 1992 0 0 0 0 0 160507 –160507

8 1993 165031 161933 237086 118543 98415 129716 –31301

9 1994 362251 355450 473104 236552 623130 159901 463229

10 1995 356351 349661 423089 211545 1146787 136256 1010531

11 1996 804199 789100 868010 434005 1928622 114501 1814121

12 1997 732941 719180 719180 359590 2811385 94509 2716877

13 1998 859605 843466 766787 383393 2805371 76161 2729210

14 1999 166824 163692 135283 67641 2372996 0 2372996

15 2000 0 0 0 0 2198344 0 2198344

16 2001 0 0 0 0 2093661 0 2093661

17 2002 0 0 0 0 1993963 0 1993963

18 2003 0 0 0 0 1899012 0 1899012

19 2004 0 0 0 0 1808583 0 1808583

20 2005 0 0 0 0 1722460 0 1722460

21 2006 0 0 0 0 1640438 0 1640438

22 2007 0 0 0 0 1562322 0 1562322

23 2008 0 0 0 0 1487926 0 1487926

24 2009 0 0 0 0 1417072 0 1417072

25 2010 0 0 0 0 1349592 0 1349592

26 2011 0 0 0 0 1285326 0 1285326

27 2012 0 0 0 0 1224120 0 1224120

28 2013 0 0 0 0 1165829 0 1165829

29 2014 0 0 0 0 1110313 0 1110313

30 2015 0 0 0 0 1057441 0 1057441

Total over 30 years 3622197 1811098 36803109 2678699 34124410

Total over 20 years 3622197 1811098 23502729 2678699 20824030

Total over 14 years – to 1999 3622197 1811098 11786707 2678699 9108007

IMPACT ASSESSMENT SERIES

ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT SERIES (DISCONTINUED)

No. Author and year of publication Title ACIAR project numbers

1 Centre for International Economics (1998)

Control of Newcastle disease in village chickens 8334, 8717 and 93/222

2 George, P.S. (1998) Increased efficiency of straw utilisation by cattle and buffalo

8203, 8601 and 8817


Establishment of a protected area in Vanuatu 9020

4 Watson, A.S. (1998) Raw wool production and marketing in China 8811

5 Collins, D.J. and Collins, B.A (1998)

Fruit fly in Malaysia and Thailand 1985–1993 8343 and 8919

6 Ryan, J.G. (1998) Pigeon pea improvement 8201 and 8567


Reducing fish losses due to epizootic ulcerative syndrome — an ex ante evaluation

9130

8 McKenney, D.W. (1998) Australian tree species selection in China 8457 and 8848

9 ACIL Consulting (1998) Sulfur test KCL–40 and growth of the Australian canola industry

8328 and 8804

10 AACM International (1998) Conservation tillage and controlled traffic 9209

11 Chudleigh, P. (1998) Post-harvest R&D concerning tropical fruits 8356 and 8844


Biological control of the banana skipper in Papua New Guinea

8802-C

No. Author and year of publication Title ACIAR project numbers

1 Doeleman, J.A. (1990a) Biological Control of Salvinia 8340

2 Tobin, J. (1990) Fruit Fly Control 8343

3 Fleming, E. (1991) Improving the Feed Value of Straw Fed to Cattle and Buffalo

8203 and 8601

4 Doeleman, J.A.,(1990b) Benefits and Costs of Entomopathogenic Nematodes: Two Biological Control Applications in China

8451 and 8929

5 Chudleigh, P.D. (1991a) Tick-borne Disease Control in Cattle 8321

6 Chudleigh, P.D. (1991b) Breeding and Quality Analysis of Canola (Rapeseed) 8469 and 8839

7 Johnston, J. and Cummings, R. (1991)

Control of Newcastle Disease in Village Chickens with Oral V4 Vaccine

8334 and 8717

8 Ryland, G.J. (1991) Long Term Storage of Grain Under Plastic Covers 8307

9 Chudleigh, P.D. (1991c) Integrated Use of Insecticides in Grain Storage in the Humid Tropics

8309, 8609 and 8311

10 Chamala, S., Karan, V., Raman, K.V and Gadewar, A.U. (1991)

An Evaluation of the Use and Impact of the ACIAR Book Nutritional Disorders of Grain Sorghum

8207

11 Tisdell, C. (1991) Culture of Giant Clams for Food and for Restocking Tropical Reefs

8332 and 8733

12 McKenney, D.W., Davis, J.S., Turnbull, J.W. and Searle, S.D. (1991)

The Impact of Australian Tree Species Research in China

8457 and 8848

Menz, K.M. (1991) Overview of Economic Assessments 1–12

BREEDING AND QUALITY ANALYSIS OF RAPESEED

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