Breaking News January, 2011 - Nielsen

Breaking News January, 2011

Over 80% of people questioned in the quarterly survey, which asks people their thoughts and feelings about job prospects, personal finances, major concerns and spending intentions, said that they thought job prospects in Ireland will be “not so good” (37%) or “bad” (45%) over the forthcoming year. Although there wasn’t a substantial shift in the overall level of negativity since the survey was conducted in Q3, what is worth noting is the shift from “not so good” to “bad”.

Also contributing to the drop in the confidence index is a worsening of the outlook on personal finances. There has been a six percentage point increase in the number of people who believe that the status of their own personal financial situations is “bad”, with 22% believing this to be the case, compare with 16% in Q3. There was no change in the “not so good” proportion, meaning that the increased positivity seen in Q3, once again slipped back towards negative mode in Q4.

Q4 2010

45%

2%13%

37%

3%

Not so goodExcellent

Q2 2010

38%

2%10%

47%

3%

Q1 2010

39%

1%10%

48%

2%

Q3 2010

24%

1%

1%15%

43%

40%

Good Bad Don’t know

Q3 2009

38%

45%

11%1%

4%

Chart 2: Q Do you think job prospects in your country over the next 12 months will be...

To put Irish consumer confidence levels in context, the global consumer confidence index stands at 90, so sentiment in Ireland lags behind the average. Indeed the CCI of our closest neighbours in the UK stands at 77 and experienced an upturn in Q4 versus Q3.

An increase in the number of people fearing for their job security, combined with an increased uncertainty regarding their personal financial situations has driven the latest fall in consumer confidence in Ireland.

Consumer confidence in Ireland fell in Q4 2010 following 4 consecutive quarters of growth and stabilisation. While consumer confidence levels remained unchanged in Q3, the latest results do not bode well, showing that Irish consumers still maintain a level of gloominess. Ninety-five per cent of Irish consumers believe that the country is currently in recession (up from 93% in Q3), while 79% of Irish consumers believe that the country will still be in a recession in 12 months time (up from 73% in Q3 2010). These are the key findings of the latest Nielsen Consumer Confidence Survey, which shows that consumer confidence levels have slipped back to levels seen at the end of 2009.

Consumer confidence slips once again in Q4 2010

113

1st Half05

68

Q3 10

65

Q4 10

112

2nd Half05

-1

113

1st Half06

+5

109

1st Half07

-8

117

2nd Half06

-1

108

2nd Half07

-1

63

1st Half09

-14

77

2nd Half08

-19

96

1st Half08

-12% pt +/-

66

2nd Half09

+3

67

Q1 10

+1

68

Q2 10

+1 -3–

Chart 1: Consumer confidence dropped once again in Q4

Source: Nielsen Global Online Consumer Confidence Survey Results: IE, 2005 to 2010

Source: Nielsen–Global Consumer Confidence Survey Q4 2010 - IRE results

Copyright © 2011 The Nielsen Company. All rights reserved. Nielsen and the Nielsen logo are trademarks or registered trademarks of The Nielsen Company.

Breaking News

6%

6%8%Health

14%12%

Job security15%

21%

14%14%15%

Debt

6%9%9%

Increasing utility bills (electricity, gas, heating, etc)

3%2%2%

Other concern

7%7%

5%Work/life balance

7%

7%8%Childrens' education and/or welfare

3%No concerns2%

2%

The economy21%

20%23%

3%3%Increasing fuel prices

2%

4%1%Political stability

3%

Q1 2010

Q3 2010

Q4 2010

Chart 5: What is your biggest concern over the next 6 months?”


Q4 2010

24%

1%

4%

28%

45%

22%


Q2 2010

20%

1%

30%

46%

3%

Q1 2010

25%

3%

29%

42%

2%

Q3 2009

20%

51%

1%

24%

3%

Q3 2010

24%

1%

1%

28%

47%

23%


Chart 4: Q Considering the cost of things today and your own personal finances, would you say at this moment the time to buy the things you want and need is...”

Debt continues to remain a persistent concern for a quarter of shoppers. As job prospects and personal financial situations drive down consumer confidence levels, debt worries are on the rise once again for consumers. Furthermore, we continue to see that saving is becoming the norm with Irish consumers. The other point worth noting is that there has been an increase versus Q1 in the proportion of consumers who claim to have no spare cash. The Irish nation has also become more savvy when it comes to household spending, with 87% of respondents claiming to have changed spending habits over the last year.

The economy tops the agenda once again in terms of the nation’s number one concern and this is showing no signs of abating. In Q3, the economy was cited as the number one concern by 20% of people. This increased to 23% in Q4 (in line with events surrounding the EU bailout of the Irish economy). People’s concerns about their own ability to cope with the economic climate continues to be evident , with debt and job security continuing to be the number 2 and 3 concerns respectively.

Source: Nielsen–Global Consumer Confidence Survey

Q4 2010

2%

3%

23%

49%

22%


Q2 2010

17%

3%

28%

46%

7%

Q1 2010

15%

3%

29%

51%

3%

Q3 2009

20%

46%

5%

27%

2%

Q3 2010

2%

2%

31%

49%

16%


Chart 3: Q Do you think the state of your own personal finances over the next 12 months will be...


Copyright © 2011 The Nielsen Company. All rights reserved. Nielsen and the Nielsen logo are trademarks or registered trademarks of The Nielsen Company.

Breaking News

About The Nielsen CompanyThe Nielsen Company is a global information and media company with leading market positions in marketing and consumer information, television and other media measurement, online intelligence, mobile measurement, trade shows and business publications. The privately held company is active in approximately 100 countries, with headquarters in New York, USA. For more information, please visit, www.nielsen.com.

Chart8: Compared to this time last year, have you changed your spending to save on household expenses?

Global Average

GB

Ireland

USA

France

70%62%

63%62%

64%

82%87%

81%

64%66%

73%

70%68%

63%71%

Dec-10May-10 Sept-10

Other highlights in the survey from a global perspective included:


Chart 7: Once you have covered your essential living expenses, which of the following statements best describes what you do with your spare cash...?

Holidays / vacations 30%

Home improvements / decorating21%

21%

20%

Retirement fund4%4%

34%34%

37%

Putting into savings

Paying off debts / credit cards / loans

Don’t know/undecided

31%

1%2%

Q1 2010

Q4 2010

Investing in shares of stock / mutual funds4%4%

New clothes18%

22%

I have no spare cash20%

22%

Out of home entertainment17%

16%

New technology products12%

10%

Global CCI remained unchanged from Q3 (90), but fell 2 •points compared to Q1 2010.

A year ago, half of the world’s consumers thought they •would be out of recession by now. However, in the latest round of the survey these consumers projected that the recession would last another 12 months.

The number of cash strapped consumers globally has risen in •the past year to its highest level on record.

Asia Pacific is the most confident region in Q4 (CCI of 97), •although 4 points below its mid-year high of 101.

LATAM is second most confident region in the world in Q4, •despite a 2 point drop from its mid-year high of 102.

Europe remained the world’s most depressed region with a •flat regional index of 79 in Q4.

The U.S. recorded its lowest CCI ever (79). •

The most optimistic country in Q4 was India (130) and the •least was Portugal (45).

The biggest CCI gainers were Switzerland (+10) and •Turkey (+6)

27%

14%

13%

Q1 2010

No 1 Concern 2nd Concern

9%

14%

23%

Q3 2010

13%

12%

25%

Q2 2010

28%

18%

10%

Q3 2009

13%

14%

27%

Q1 Mar 2009

15%

10%

25%

Q4 2010


Chart 6: As Ireland experiences recession, debt remains a per-sistent concern for over 1 out 4 shoppers ...


Breaking News January, 2011 - Nielsen

Documents

Transcript of Breaking News January, 2011 - Nielsen