BRC NIELSEN SHOP PRICE INDEX DECEMBER 2016 SHOP … · The rise of global food prices paused in...

BRC – NIELSEN SHOP PRICE INDEX DECEMBER 2016

SHOP PRICES SHOW FIRST SIGNS OF UPWARD TREND Period Covered: 05 – 09 December 2016

Strictly Embargoed until 00.01 hrs – Wednesday 04 January 2017

Overall: % change year over year

-1.4 %

Overall shop prices reported deflation of 1.4% in December, a deceleration from the 1.7% fall in the previous two months.

Non-Food: % change year over year

-1.9% Non-food deflation decelerated to 1.9% down from 2.3% in the previous month. This is the shallowest deflation rate since June 2015.

Food: % change year over year

-0.7% Food deflation decelerated marginally to 0.7% in December from the 0.8% fall in November. This compares with a 0.9% fall on a 3-month basis.

Fresh: % change year over year

-1.2% Fresh Food deflation remained at 1.2% for the second consecutive month. This compares to the 3-month average of -1.5%.

ambient: % change year over year

0.1% Ambient Food moved into inflationary territory for the first time since June 2016, rising 0.1% in December from the 0.1% decline in the previous month.

2


Period Covered: 05 – 09 December 2016

Helen Dickinson OBE, Chief Executive | British Retail Consortium

“December saw an easing of shop price deflation. Prices were down 1.4% compared to last year, but the majority of the categories we monitor, particularly non-food, saw month-on-month increases in prices, with clothing and footwear seeing month-on-month inflation for the first time in nearly two years. “We’ve said for some time that we expect to see underlying inflationary pressures, notably from the post-referendum fall in the value of the pound, feed through into shop prices. It’s too early to confirm that this is what we’re seeing in December’s figures: timings of seasonal discounts can cause monthly fluctuations at this time of year and retailers have continued to find ways to mitigate the impact on consumers. “However, we expect the general trend in inflation to be upwards over 2017. The magnitude of the exchange rate movement and commodity price rises combined with the increasing costs of doing business means that retailers will have little choice other than to pass on some of these rising costs into prices but effect will be lessened by the intensity of competition.”

Mike Watkins, Head of Retailer and Business Insight | Nielsen

“Consumer demand has been increasingly difficult to predict in recent weeks and retailers

continued to hold back on price increases in December to ensure a strong end to the year.

However, whilst the supermarket price war helped food prices to fall in the run up to Christmas,

we are now seeing the first impact of the currency depreciation of the last 6 months, with

increases in retail prices for some non-foods such as clothing. Over the next 6 months we can

expect the return of shop price inflation but as the battle for the wallet of the shopper is so

intense, this will be phased in by retailers and any increases are likely to be less than other

sectors of consumer spend as measured by the consumer price index.”

3



OVERVIEW

OVERALL SPI FOOD NON-FOOD

% Change On last year On last month

On last year On last month

On last year On last month

Dec 16 -1.4 0.2 -0.7 -0.3 -1.9 0.6

Nov 16 -1.7 -0.2 -0.8 0.4 -2.3 -0.6

In December, the BRC-Nielsen Shop Price Index (SPI) showed prices fell -1.4 per cent on an annual basis, the lowest rate of deflation since August 2015. Food prices fell by 0.7 per cent while in Non-Food, prices declined by 1.9 per cent. On a month-on-month basis, the overall SPI rose for the first time in five months, posting its highest monthly increase since August 2015. This was driven by the Non-Food category, which reported its sharpest monthly rise since August 2014 (0.6 per cent). Within Non-Food, five out of seven sub-categories were inflationary, with Clothing and Footwear and Furniture and Floorcovering recording a monthly rise of above one per cent. While the latter has seen a larger movement on a monthly basis in recent months, the monthly price rise in the Clothing and Footwear category is the largest since February 2014. On a year-on-year basis, Food prices only eased marginally despite the Ambient food component rising into inflation territory, albeit up 0.1%. This was mainly a result of deflation in the fresh food component remaining at November’s level, which prevented the overall rate from easing further. The competitive nature of the food industry over the festive period was also a major factor in the small upward movement in food prices in December, with retailers using price cuts of key Christmas produce to drive consumers into shops. On a month-on-month basis, food prices actually declined 0.3%, driven by ambient food which reported its largest monthly fall since February 2016 and its second lowest index in the last 12 months. While overall shop price deflation only demonstrated a small easing in December, the data suggest that an upward movement is now in motion (although the timing of seasonal discounts can distort prices at this time of year). We expect to see shop prices turn positive at some point in 2017, the speed of which will depend on a number of factors which includes, length of hedging contracts, pricing strategies of retailers, and how much, if any, of the pressures retailers can absorb themselves. What is clear however, is that consumers are still benefiting from low levels of shop price deflation and will continue to do so over the coming months.

BRC-NIELSEN SHOP PRICE INDEX

Source: BRC

The rise of global food prices paused in November, having risen in nearly all months of 2016. The UN-FAO Food Price Index fell 0.4% on the previous month but recorded a 10.4% rise on a year ago. The decline in November was driven by a sharp fall in sugar prices, as the world’s largest sugar producer, Brazil, was reported to have had a better-than-expected harvest. This offset a rise in vegetable oil prices. Other components of the Index remained fairly constant. While the UN expect price rises to be limited due to good supply prospects, exchange rate movements arising from any changes in the US interest rates and from further announcements in relation to Brexit may mean prices could be more volatile in coming months. GLOBAL FOOD PRICES: UN FAO FOOD PRICE INDEX Source: UN

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%D

ec-

11

Mar

-12

Jun

-12

Se

p-1

2D

ec-

12

Mar

-13

Jun

-13

Se

p-1

3D

ec-

13

Mar

-14

Jun

-14

Se

p-1

4D

ec-

14

Mar

-15

Jun

-15

Se

p-1

5D

ec-

15

Mar

-16

Jun

-16

Se

p-1

6D

ec-

16

% c

ha

ng

e y

ea

r-o

n-y

ea

r

All Items Food Non-food

140.0

150.0

160.0

170.0

180.0

190.0

200.0

210.0

220.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

20

02

-20

04

=1

00

2014 2015 2016

4



The price of oil has been gradually rising since the agreement was signed with OPEC at the end of November. A further agreement was signed in December by non-OPEC members to curb supply, which should help support the price of oil further as we move through 2017. It will by no means be a sharp uplift, as there is still a vast amount of inventory in the market, however with input and consumer prices already seeing the effects of the rise in the price of crude oil, it is likely to provide upward pressure on prices for some time to come. The Thomson Reuters/CoreCommodity CRB Index, a weighted commodities benchmark, has now moved into positive territory in both the three-months (+5%) and 12-months (+8%) to the end of our survey period (09 December). THOMSON REUTERS/CORECOMMODITY CRB INDEX

The Producer Price Index reported a 12.9% year-on-year rise in the cost of goods bought by UK manufacturers (input prices), rising from the 12.4% uplift in the previous month. This is the sharpest rise since October 2011. Upward contributions continue to come from crude oil, imported metals and imported parts and equipment. Imported metals recorded its largest increase since records began, rising over 30%. It’s worth highlighting that the month-on-month movement in Producer Price input prices actually fell by 1.1% having risen sharply in the previous month. Factory gate (output) prices rose further, up 2.3%, year-on-year, their highest rate since April 2012. The headline inflation rate moved back on track in November, reporting an above-consensus rise of 1.2% after falling back in the previous month, the highest rate since October 2014. This was in-line with the Bank of England’s projection in their recent Inflation Report.

Source: Thomson Reuters

SHOP PRICE INFLATION ANNUAL % CHANGE, FOOD AND NON-FOOD CONTRIBUTION

155

165

175

185

195

205

De

c-1

5

Jan

-16

Fe

b-1

6

Mar

-16

Ap

r-1

6

May

-16

Jun

-16

Jul-

16

Au

g-1

6

Se

p-1

6

Oct

-16

No

v-1

6

De

c-1

6

-2.5%

-2.0%

-1.5%

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

20

13

De

c

20

14

Fe

b

20

14

Ap

r

20

14

Ju

n

20

14

Au

g

20

14

Oct

20

14

De

c

20

15

Fe

b

20

15

Ap

r

20

15

Ju

n

20

15

Au

g

20

15

Oct

20

15

De

c

20

16

Fe

b

20

16

Ap

r

20

16

Ju

ne

20

16

Au

g

20

16

Oct

20

16

De

cAn

nu

al %

Ch

ang

e C

on

trib

uti

on

Food Non Food Overall

5



FOOD

FOOD FRESH AMBIENT

% Change On last year On last month On last year On last month On last year On last month

Dec 16 -0.7 -0.3 -1.2 0.0 0.1 -0.7

Nov 16 -0.8 0.4 -1.2 0.6 -0.1 0.1

In December, Food reported a slight deceleration in its deflation rate to 0.7% from 0.8% in November. Fresh Food deflation remained at1.2% while Ambient Food reported annual inflation of just 0.1%. On a month-on-month basis, prices fell 0.3% from the 0.4% rise in November. FRESH FOOD Fresh Food deflation remained at 1.2% for the second consecutive month. Downward pressure was applied by the Oils and Fats, Meat and Vegetables categories, which remained in deflationary territory. This outweighed accelerating inflation in the Milk, Cheese and Eggs category while Fruit moved into inflationary territory. On a month-on-month basis, prices were broadly flat after rising 0.6% in November.

AMBIENT FOOD Ambient Food reported annual inflation in December, rising marginally to 0.1% from a 0.1% fall in November, the first move into inflationary territory since June 2016. Upward pressure was exerted by alcoholic beverages and the category which contains sugar, jam and chocolate, the latter reporting an acceleration in its inflation rate. This outweighed deep deflation in the Non-Alcoholic Beverages category, while Breads and Cereals remained in deflationary category, albeit marginally. On a month-on-month basis, prices fell 0.7% after rising 0.1% in November.

BRC-NIELSEN SHOP PRICE INDEX: FOOD

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

De

c-1

1

Mar

-12

Jun

-12

Se

p-1

2

De

c-1

2

Mar

-13

Jun

-13

Se

p-1

3

De

c-1

3

Mar

-14

Jun

-14

Se

p-1

4

De

c-1

4

Mar

-15

Jun

-15

Se

p-1

5

De

c-1

5

Mar

-16

Jun

-16

Se

p-1

6

De

c-1

6

% c

han

ge

ye

ar-o

n-y

ear

Food Fresh Ambient

6



NON-FOOD

DECEMBER NOVEMBER

% Change On last year On last month On last year On last month

Clothing & Footwear -5.7 1.1 -7.1 -1.2

Furniture & Floorcovering -1.2 1.1 -1.8 -0.8

Electricals -2.3 0.3 -2.8 -0.7

DIY, Gardening & Hardware -1.2 1.0 -2.1 -0.5

Books, Stationery & Home Entertainment -0.2 0.0 2.1 -0.1

Health & Beauty 0.9 -0.3 0.3 0.4

Other Non-Food -1.1 -0.2 -0.6 -0.3

Total Non-Food -1.9 0.6 -2.3 -0.6

Non-Food deflation decelerated to 1.9% in December from 2.3% in November. This is the lowest deflation rate since June 2015. Clothing and Footwear, DIY, Gardening and Hardware, Furniture and Floorcoverings and Electricals all reported a deceleration in their deflation rates. The Books, Stationery and Home Entertainment category fell into deflationary territory while inflation in the Health and Beauty rose further in December. On a month-on-month basis, Non-Food prices rose 0.6% after falling 0.6% in November. YEAR-ON-YEAR CHANGES IN NON-FOOD BY SECTOR

-5.7

-2.3

-1.9

-1.2

-1.2

-1.1

-0.2

0.9

-9.0 -7.0 -5.0 -3.0 -1.0 1.0 3.0

Dec-16 Nov-16

NON-FOOD

Books, stationery and home entertainment

DIY, Gardening and hardware

Other non-food

Health and Beauty

Clothing and Footwear

Electricals

Furniture and floorcoverings

7



CLOTHING & FOOTWEAR

The Clothing and Footwear category reported a sharp deceleration in its deflation rate to 5.7% from 7.1% in November. All but one sub-category reported a deceleration in their deflation rates, with the Clothing Accessories category accelerating into inflationary territory. Notable movements were seen in Men’s, Women’s and Children’s clothing which all reported a sharp easing in their deflation rates, although all continued to demonstrate deflation rates deeper than the overall category rate. On a month-on-month basis, prices rose 1.1% from the 1.2% fall in November. Deflation in the Clothing and Footwear category decelarated sharply in December.

FURNITURE & FLOORCOVERING

Deflation in the Furniture and Floorcoverings category eased to 1.2% in December from the 1.8% fall in November. The Household Textiles and Furniture, Furnishings and Carpets categories both reported a deceleration in their deflation rates. This category in linked to movements in the housing market. The Nationwide House Price Index reported a 4.5% rise in house prices in December on an annual basis capping off a fairly stable year in the housing market. The outlook for 2017 is uncertain, and will depend largely on developments in the wider economy however, the current low interest rates are likely to support demand, with appetite in the market still strong. On a month-on-month basis, prices rose 1.1% after falling 0.8% in November.

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

De

c-1

5

Jan

-16

Fe

b-1

6

Mar

-16

Ap

r-1

6

May

-16

Jun

-16

Jul-

16

Au

g-1

6

Se

p-1

6

Oct

-16

No

v-1

6

De

c-1

6

Clothing & Footwear Non Food

-3.5%

-3.0%

-2.5%

-2.0%

-1.5%

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

De

c-1

5

Jan

-16

Fe

b-1

6

Mar

-16

Ap

r-1

6

May

-16

Jun

-16

Jul-

16

Au

g-1

6

Se

p-1

6

Oct

-16

No

v-1

6

De

c-1

6

Furniture & Flooring Non Food

8



ELECTRICALS

Deflation in the Electricals category decelerated further in December, easing to 2.3% from 2.8% in November. Both the Audio Visual Equipment and Related Products and Household Appliances categories reported a deceleration in their deflation rates. Consumers’ willingness to make major purchases, as measured by GfK, rose in December to 12, increasing seven points from the previous month. This is five points higher than December 2015. On a month-on-month basis, prices rose 0.3% after falling 0.7% in November.

DIY, GARDENING AND HARDWARE

Deflation in the DIY, Gardening and Hardware category decelerated sharply to 1.2% in December from the 2.1% decline in the previous month. This is the shallowest decline since December 2014, although it should be noted that it is against a strong comparison a year earlier. Downward pressure was applied by the Glass, Tableware and Household Utensils category which reported a sharp deceleration in its deflation rate while the Tools and Equipment for the House and Garden category remained in deflationary territory, albeit at a slower rate than in November. On a month-on-month basis, prices increased 1.0% from the 0.5% fall in November. This is the largest increase since November 2014.

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

De

c-1

5

Jan

-16

Fe

b-1

6

Mar

-16

Ap

r-1

6

May

-16

Jun

-16

Jul-

16

Au

g-1

6

Se

p-1

6

Oct

-16

No

v-1

6

De

c-1

6

Electricals Non Food

-5.0%

-4.0%

-3.0%

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

De

c-1

5

Jan

-16

Fe

b-1

6

Mar

-16

Ap

r-1

6

May

-16

Jun

-16

Jul-

16

Au

g-1

6

Se

p-1

6

Oct

-16

No

v-1

6

De

c-1

6

DIY, Gardening & Hardware Non Food

9



BOOKS, STATIONERY AND HOME ENTERTAINMENT

The Books, Stationery and Home Entertainment category fell into deflationary territory in December, falling 0.2% from the 2.1% rise in the previous month, the first fall in prices since February 2016. Downward pressure was applied by the Books and Newspapers category which moved into deflationary territory while the Home Entertainment category remained down on a year ago, although eased on November’s rate. This outweighed accelerating inflation in the Stationary category. On a month-on-month basis, prices were broadly flat after falling by 0.1% in November.

HEALTH & BEAUTY

The Health and Beauty category reported a sharp acceleration in its inflation rate in December, rising to 0.9% from the 0.3% rise in the previous month. This is the steepest rise since August 2015. The upward movement was driven solely by the Personal Care category which moved into inflationary territory after reporting annual deflation for over a year. This outweighed slowing inflation in the Toiletries and Cosmetics category. On a month-on-month basis, prices fell 0.3% after the 0.4% rise in November. OTHER NON-FOOD

Deflation in the Other Non-Food category accelerated to 1.1% from the 0.6% fall in November. On a month-on-month basis, prices fell 0.2% from the 0.3% fall in November.

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

De

c-1

5

Jan

-16

Fe

b-1

6

Mar

-16

Ap

r-1

6

May

-16

Jun

-16

Jul-

16

Au

g-1

6

Se

p-1

6

Oct

-16

No

v-1

6

De

c-1

6

Books, Stationery & Home Entertainment Non Food

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

De

c-1

5

Jan

-16

Fe

b-1

6

Mar

-16

Ap

r-1

6

May

-16

Jun

-16

Jul-

16

Au

g-1

6

Se

p-1

6

Oct

-16

No

v-1

6

De

c-1

6

Health & Beauty Non Food

-3.5%

-3.0%

-2.5%

-2.0%

-1.5%

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

De

c-1

5

Jan

-16

Fe

b-1

6

Mar

-16

Ap

r-1

6

May

-16

Jun

-16

Jul-

16

Au

g-1

6

Se

p-1

6

Oct

-16

No

v-1

6

De

c-1

6

Other Non Food Non Food

10



DATA TABLES

YEAR-ON-YEAR % CHANGE

OVERALL NON-FOOD FOOD FRESH AMBIENT

Dec 15 -2.0 -3.0 -0.3 -1.4 1.3

Jan 16 -1.8 -3.0 0.1 -0.6 1.0

Feb -2.0 -3.0 -0.4 -0.9 0.3

Mar -1.7 -2.6 -0.4 -0.9 0.4

Apr -1.7 -2.9 0.1 -0.5 1.0

May -1.8 -2.7 -0.3 -0.8 0.4

Jun -2.0 -2.8 -0.8 -1.5 0.1

Jul -1.6 -2.2 -0.8 -1.2 -0.1

Aug -2.0 -2.5 -1.1 -1.5 -0.6

Sep -1.8 -2.1 -1.3 -1.3 -1.1

Oct -1.7 -2.1 -1.2 -2.0 -0.2

Nov -1.7 -2.3 -0.8 -1.2 -0.1

Dec 16 -1.4 -1.9 -0.7 -1.2 0.1

MONTH-ON-MONTH % CHANGE

OVERALL NON-FOOD FOOD FRESH AMBIENT

Dec15 -0.1 0.1 -0.4 -0.1 -0.9

Jan 16 -0.3 -1.0 0.7 0.3 1.2

Feb -0.1 0.3 -0.6 -0.5 -0.8

Mar 0.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.4 0.4

Apr -0.3 -0.5 0.0 -0.1 0.2

May -0.2 -0.2 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3

Jun -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0

Jul -0.4 -0.6 0.0 0.1 -0.3

Aug 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

Sep -0.2 0.0 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5

Oct 0.0 -0.1 0.2 -0.2 0.9

Nov -0.2 -0.6 0.4 0.6 0.1

Dec 16 0.2 0.6 -0.3 0.0 -0.7

11



YEAR-ON-YEAR %

CHANGE

CLOTHING& FOOTWEAR


ELECTRICALS DIY,

GARDENING & HARDWARE

BOOKS, STATIONERY &

HOME ENTERTAINMENT

HEALTH& BEAUTY

OTHER NON-FOOD

Dec 15 -6.4 -0.5 -4.2 -4.0 -2.9 -2.2 -0.8

Jan 16 -6.4 -1.4 -2.5 -2.9 -3.7 -1.9 -1.4

Feb -6.9 -1.7 -3.5 -3.0 -3.9 -1.2 -0.7

Mar -6.8 -1.8 -2.5 -2.4 1.0 -1.6 -0.8

Apr -7.1 -2.5 -3.2 -2.3 0.4 -1.9 -0.9

May -7.5 -1.7 -2.9 -2.1 1.6 -1.6 -1.0

Jun -7.3 -2.5 -3.0 -2.0 1.6 -1.3 -1.2

Jul -6.0 -0.8 -2.7 -2.6 2.2 -0.7 -0.7

Aug -6.8 -2.0 -2.6 -2.4 2.3 -0.6 -1.4

Sep -6.5 -1.1 -2.9 -1.8 3.0 -0.5 -1.0

Oct -6.0 -1.6 -3.2 -1.4 2.1 -0.2 -1.0

Nov -7.1 -1.8 -2.8 -2.1 2.1 0.3 -0.6

Dec 16 -5.7 -1.2 -2.3 -1.2 -0.2 0.9 -1.1

MONTH-ON-MONTH % CHANGE

CLOTHING& FOOTWEAR


ELECTRICALS DIY,

GARDENING & HARDWARE

BOOKS, STATIONERY &

HOME ENTERTAINMENT

HEALTH& BEAUTY

OTHER NON-FOOD

Dec 15 -0.4 0.5 -0.2 0.0 2.3 -0.8 0.2

Jan 16 -2.1 -2.2 0.1 0.1 -1.5 0.5 -0.5

Feb -0.3 1.8 -0.4 -0.5 -0.1 0.0 0.9

Mar -0.2 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.3 -0.3 0.0

Apr -0.5 -1.9 -0.5 -0.3 0.3 0.0 -0.4

May -0.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 -0.3 -0.1

Jun -0.5 -0.3 -0.6 0.0 0.1 1.2 -0.3

Jul -0.6 -1.9 0.0 -0.5 0.4 -0.1 -0.1

Aug -0.9 3.6 -0.4 -0.4 0.1 -0.2 -1.1

Sep 0.1 -1.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.5 0.8 0.5

Oct -0.2 0.1 -0.5 -0.2 -0.4 -0.7 0.4

Nov -1.2 -0.8 -0.7 -0.5 -0.1 0.4 -0.3

Dec 16 1.1 1.1 0.3 1.0 0.0 -0.3 -0.2

12



IND

EX

OV

ER

AL

L

FO

OD

FR

ES

H

AM

BIE

NT

NO

N-F

OO

D

CLO

TH

ING

&

FO

OT

WE

AR

FU

RN

ITU

RE

& F

LOO

R

CO

VE

RIN

G

ELE

CT

RIC

AL

DIY

, GA

RD

EN

ING

&

HA

RD

WA

RE

BO

OK

S, S

TA

TIO

NE

RY

&

HO

ME

E

NT

ER

TA

INM

EN

T

HE

ALT

H &

BE

AU

TY

OT

HE

R N

ON

-FO

OD

Dec 15 103.97 134.98 132.64 138.40 89.75 59.39 92.34 64.79 111.76 95.96 112.71 115.76

Jan 16 103.64 135.89 133.02 140.10 88.89 58.12 90.29 64.85 111.82 94.57 113.27 115.13

Feb 103.59 135.07 132.36 139.03 89.16 57.97 91.89 64.59 111.31 94.51 113.24 116.15

Mar 103.61 134.98 131.86 139.58 89.23 57.85 92.33 64.80 111.59 94.81 112.87 116.17

Apr 103.27 134.98 131.69 139.83 88.75 57.58 90.54 64.47 111.29 95.11 112.86 115.76

May 103.01 134.50 131.20 139.37 88.59 57.20 90.65 64.51 111.26 95.19 112.47 115.66

Jun 102.92 134.46 131.13 139.38 88.48 56.92 90.37 64.15 111.20 95.32 113.83 115.35

Jul 102.54 134.40 131.32 138.95 87.97 56.60 88.68 64.16 110.64 95.73 113.76 115.25

Aug 102.67 134.34 131.26 138.89 88.18 56.10 91.89 63.91 110.18 95.81 113.50 114.04

Sep 102.47 133.65 130.62 138.14 88.19 56.17 90.90 63.84 110.07 96.33 114.44 114.63

Oct 102.50 133.97 130.32 139.37 88.09 56.06 90.99 63.54 109.85 95.92 113.61 115.07

Nov 102.29 134.50 131.09 139.53 87.58 55.40 90.25 63.08 109.33 95.78 114.01 114.74

Dec 16 102.52 134.07 131.04 138.54 88.08 56.00 91.23 63.30 110.44 95.82 113.72 114.54

13



METHODOLOGY The SPI is administered by Nielsen, who collate and analyse the data on behalf of the BRC. The index provides an indicator of the direction of price changes in retail outlets. The BRC launched the Shop Price Index to give an accurate picture of the inflation rate of 500 of the most commonly bought high street products in stores. As the Index is designed to reflect changes in shop prices, the sampling points chosen are five large urban areas, spread nationally. Not all sample stores are in city centres; they have been selected to reflect local shopping habits. Therefore, the sample includes superstores on out-of-town sites, town centre department stores, local parade stores, and shopping centres. In each location, Nielsen collect and process the data for the BRC, visit stores of differing types, e.g. grocery, confectionery, DIY, department stores – including small and large multiples and independents. Data collection is monthly and always in the same stores to maintain consistency. The items for which prices are collected reflect standard consumer purchasing patterns in terms of branded/own label split and price distribution. The Index is constructed of seven main sectors of purchase: food, DIY, gardening and hardware, furniture, books, stationery and home entertainment, electrical, clothing and footwear, and other non-food. In total there are 500 items representing the seven main sectors, there are around 6,500-7,000 price points collected each period. Each product class category has an individual weighting based on the “All households” expenditure measured in the Family Expenditure Survey. This data is also used to weight the Office for National Statistics Retail Price Index (RPI). Although it is a proxy measure of inflation, the Shop Price Index is more focused than the Retail Price Index, and demonstrates the extent to which retailers contribute to inflation through their pricing of a range of commonly bought goods.

ENQUIRIES

©British Retail Consortium (2016). The contents of this report and those of all ancillary documents and preparatory materials are the sole property of BRC and are not to be copied, modified, published, distributed or commercially exploited other than with the express permission of BRC or for the purposes of journalistic comment and review. All rights reserved.

Written and produced by

Siobhan Bentley

Analyst – Retail Insight and Analytics

T 020 7854 8961

E [email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

BRC NIELSEN SHOP PRICE INDEX DECEMBER 2016 SHOP … · The rise of global food prices paused in...

Documents

Transcript of BRC NIELSEN SHOP PRICE INDEX DECEMBER 2016 SHOP … · The rise of global food prices paused in...