BRAZIL’S PROSPECTS FOR 2014 - Americas Society · PARTY SYSTEM PRESIDENTIALISM BY COALITION BROAD...

BRAZIL’S PROSPECTS FOR 2014

RICARDO SENNES

[email protected]

NOVEMBER, 2013

TOPICS

I – POLITICAL FRAGMENTATION

II – DILMA’S TERM: SOME FACTS

III – 2014 ELECTIONS

5

IMPORTANT FACTS OF

BRAZILIAN POLITICAL SYSTEM

BRASILIA BASED

FEDERALISM

FRAGMENTED MULTI-

PARTY SYSTEM

PRESIDENTIALISM

BY COALITION

BROAD & DETAILED

CONSTITUTION

PROVISIONAL

MEASURES (aka MPs)

Overlapping competencies

Tax collection concentrated at federal level

Weaker political parties

Less transparency

Bargaining over budget

Municipality is a federal entity

Bargaining over executive appointments

“Supremocracy”

Complex legal system

Executive branch legislative power

Legal uncertainty

States are relatively

weak and have

limited regulatory

agenda

Reduced role of

Congress and

complex Executive

branch structure

Increasing

relevance of

Judiciary

1

2

3

4

6

BUDGET POLICY

RULES

5 Originates in the Executive branch

Authorized (not imposed) by Congress

6

POLITICAL PARTIES IN CONGRESS

PMDB

PT

PSDB

PP

PSD

PR

PDT

PTB

DEM

PSB

PCdoB PSC

PRB

PV PPS

PSOL

PPL

PMN

PTdoB PRP PEN PHS PRTB PSL

• 11 relevant political

parties

• PMDB – largest party

• PT is the second party

(about 20%)

• PSDB is the 3th largest

So

uc

e:

pro

f. C

lau

dio

Co

uto

(F

GV

-SP

) d

ata

bas

e

7

STATE GOVERNMENT BY POLITICAL PARTIES

Partidos Políticos

PT

PMDB

PSDB

PSB

DEM

PSD

ACRE

MARINA SILVA

PSB

PERNAMBUCO

EDUARDO CAMPOS

PSB

SÃO PAULO

SERRA

PSDB

MINAS GERAIS

AÉCIO NEVES

PSDB

RIO GRANDE DO SUL

DILMA ROUSSEF

PT

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 700 750 800 850 900 950 1000 1050 1100 1150 1200

PMDB

PSDB

PT

PSD

PP

PSB

PDT

PTB

DEM

PR

PPS

PV

PSC

PRB

PC do B

PMN

PT do B

PRP

PSL

PTC

PHS

PRTB

PTN

PPL

PSDC

PSOL

1019

702

633

493

467

439

309

293

277

272

122

97

84

78

56

42

26

24

23

19

17

15

12

12

9

2 Mayors elected by Political Parties from 2004-2012

2004

2008

2012

8 So

uc

e:

pro

f. C

lau

dio

Co

uto

(F

GV

-SP

) d

ata

bas

e

TOPICS




56

48 51

57 56 59

62 62 63

55

37

38%

27

36 34

32 34

32 29 29 29

32

39

35%

5

12 11 9 8 8 7 7 7

13

22 26

11

4 4 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2

Mar/11 Jul/11 Set/11 Dez/11 Mar/12 Jun/12 Set/12 Dez/12 Mar/13 Jun/13 Set/13 Out/13

Dilma’s Administration Evaluation

Ótimo/Bom Regular Ruim/Péssimo NR/NO*

* Não responderam / Não opinaram Fonte: CNI/IBOPE

10

DILMA’S ADMINISTRATION EVALUATION

JUNE: Popular protests

53% 42%

5%

Dilma’s Popularity – october/2013

Aprovação

Desaprovação

Não opinaram

POLITICAL OVERVIEW

• Considerable approval rating deterioration since June's popular protests.

• The worst decline in any approval was the interest rate policy. The rate dropped 16 points,

going from 39% to 23%. The disapproval went from 54% to71%.

Source: CNI / Ibope NA / NO – No answer/ No Opinion

Federal Government Actions Disapproval Approval NA/NO

Healthcare 77% 21% 1%

Public Security 74% 24% 2%

Taxes 73% 22% 5%

Interest Rate 71% 23% 6%

Combating Inflation 68% 27% 5%

Education 65% 33% 2%

Combating unemployment 57% 39% 4%

Envirnment 52% 41% 7% Combating Hunger and

Poverty 47% 51% 2%

38%

42%

19% 1%

Dilma’s Government Approval Rating (Oct/2013)

Excellent/ Good Regular Bad NA/NO

Source: CNI / Ibope – Oct/2013 NA / NO – No answer/ No Opinion

12

2 – DILMA’S POLITICAL SUPPORT AT CONGRESS

87

75

70

2011 2012 2013

Coalition Loyalty Index (%)

Fo

nte

: B

asô

me

tro

- O

ES

P

Câmara

Base - 75%

Oposição - 25%

Senado

Base - 75%

Oposição - 25%

2

13

ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Economic Forecast

Conta Corrente – % PIB Dívida Líquida – % do PIB

Selic – final de período IPCA Fonte: Itaú BBA

Forecast - economic growth - % GDP

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Média

Focus - BC 2,47 2,20 2,59 3,08 3,22 2,71

Itaú BBA 2,30 1,70 2,20 2,80 2,70 2,34

LCA 2,60 2,90 3,10 3,70 3,50 3,16

FMI 2,53 2,50 3,17 3,32 3,46 3,00

Investment Rate – Forecast - as a % of GDP -

BRAZIL’S POLITICAL

PROSPECTS – 2014 (SECTORAL DEBATE)

NOVEMBER, 2013

15

BNDES AND PETROBRAS

BNDES represents 21% of the

credit offer in Brazil.

65

91

136

168

139

156

7 8 16 15 18

24

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

BNDES – Anual Spending - R$ bi

Desembolsos totais Desembolsos p/ Infra

(1º sem)

Fonte

: B

ND

ES

, 2013,

Agosto

.

59,8

69,3

94

9M12 9M13 Planejado 2013

Petrobras Investments per year - R$ bi -

TOPICS




17

POLITICAL ENVIRONMENT: SCENARIOS FOR 2014

POLITICAL OVERVIEW

Source: Datafolha – 07 a 09/08/2013

19/21

54

58

51

30

35

18 16 16

23 26

12 10

14 17

13

4 6 6 7 8 6 6 7

16 13

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

dez/12 mar/13 início de jun/2013 final de jun/2013 ago/13

Voting Intention (%) - 2014

Dilma Rousseff

Marina Silva

Eduardo Campos

Não sabem

Aécio Neves

Branco/ nulo

June’s Popular Protests

Dec/ 12 March/ 13 Early June/ 13 End of June/ 13 Aug/ 13

19

2014 PRESIDENCIAL ELECTIONS - VOTE INTENTIONS

39%

21%

13% 16%

11%

Dilma Marina Aécio Brancos e Nulos

NO/NR

Scenario 1

Intenção de Votos

* Não opinaram / Não responderam Fonte: CNI/IBOPE

41%

14% 10%

22%

13%

Dilma Aécio Eduardo Campos

Brancos e Nulos

NO/NR

Scenario 2

Intenção de Votos

39%

21% 16% 15% 13%

Dilma Marina Serra Brancos e Nulos

NO/NR

Scenario 3

Intenção de Votos

40%

18%

10%

19%

12%

Dilma Eduardo Campos

Serra Brancos e Nulos

NO/NR

Scenario 4

Intenção de Votos

20

22%

11% 11%

6% 6% 2%

30%

9% 5%

1% 2% 3%

16%

7% 6% 7% 4%

2%

23%

3% 4% 3% 7%

1%

Dilma Lula Marina Aécio Serra Eduardo Campos

Spontaneous Response by Regions

Norte/Centro-Oeste Nordeste Sudeste Sul

Fonte:: CNI/IBOPE

38%

19%

9%

20% 14%

57%

5%

13% 14% 11%

32%

18%

8%

25%

16%

43%

13% 9%

26%

10%

Dilma Aécio Eduardo Campos Brancos e Nulos NO/NR

Intentions by Regions

Norte /Centro-Oeste Nordeste Sudeste Sul


21

17%

6% 10% 10%

5% 3%

16%

7% 8% 6% 5%

2%

25%

8% 4%

2% 4%

2%

33%

13%

3% 0

2% 3%

Dilma Lula Marina Aécio Serra Eduardo Campos

Spontaneous Response by Income

Mais de 5 Salários 2 a 5 Salários Min 1 a 2 Salários Min. Até 1 Salário Min.

Fonte: CNI/IBOPE

32% 24%

7%

24%

13%

34%

18% 11%

24%

14%

49%

9% 8%

19% 14%

63%

2% 9%

13% 14%

Dilma Aécio Eduardo Campos Brancos e Nulos NO/NR

Intentions by Income

Mais de 5 sSalários 2 a 5 Salários Min 1 a 2 Salários Min. Até 1 Salário Min.

* Nao opinaram / Não responderam Fonte: CNI/IBOPE

22

SCENARIOS – PRESIDENTIAL RUNOFF

47

19 22

11

Dilma Aecio Brancos e Nulos

NO/NR

Scenario 1

Intenções de votos

42

29

18 11

Dilma Marina Brancos e Nulos

NO/NR

Scenario 2


45

18 24

14

Dilma Eduardo Campos

Brancos e Nulos

NO/NR

Scenario 3


44

23 20 13

Dilma Serra Brancos e Nulos

NO/NR

Scenario 4



* Não opinaram / Não responderam Fonte: CNI/IBOPE * Não opinaram / Não responderam Fonte: CNI/IBOPE


?

23

SCENARIO – POLITICAL PARTY COALITIONS

Desde a sua

criação o SDD já

indicou coalizão

com PSDB.

O alvo do

PSDB são

siglas como

PMDB, PP,

PTB, PSD e

PDT, que têm

em comum a

afinidade com

PSDB e PT.

DEM deverá

manter a

parceria com o

PSDB em 2014

com a indicação

de um vice

Há chance de

um projeto novo

do DEM com o

governador

Eduardo

Campos (PSB)

Indicaram

lançamento de

candidatos

próprios para

concorrer à

presidência em

2014;

Partidos que

PODERÃO

integrar a base

do PT em 2014.

Fizeram parte da

coalisão com o

PSDB em 2010,

estão na base

aliada do PT.

Sem Marina,

poderá apoiar PT.

Aliança Marina +

PSB altera o jogo

eleitoral, tanto do

pontop de vista

regional como

segmentos

sociais

? ?

?

24

VOTE INTENTIONS – SAO PAULO STATE

19%

4% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%

Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB)

José Serra (PSDB)

Celso Russomanno

(PRB)

Lula (PT) Paulo Maluf (PP)

Paulo Skaf (PMDB)

Marta Suplicy (PT)

Aloizio Mercadante

(PT)

Gilberto Kassab (PSD)

Scenario 1 – São Paulo

Pesquisa Data Folha– Espontânea

Fo

nte

: D

ata

Fo

lha –

Jun/2

013

52%

16% 9%

3%

14% 5%

Geraldo Alkimin (PSDB)

Paulo Skaf (PMDB) Gilberto Kassab (PSD) Alexandre Padilha (PT)

Brancos/Nulos Não Sabe

Scenario 2 –São Paulo

Pesquisa Data Folha - Estimulada

Fo

nte

: D

ata

Fo

lha

– J

un/2

01

3

51%

31%

15%

3%

Ótima/ Boa

Regular

Ruim/ Péssima

Não opinou

Sao Paulo State –

Alckimin

Administration

Avaluation

25

6% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 11%

72%

Anthony Garotinho (PR)

Lindbergh Farias (PT)

Sérgio Cabral (PMDB)

Marcelo Crivella (PRB)

Luiz Fernando Pezão (PMDB)

Marcelo Freixo (PSol)

Eduardo Paes (PMDB)

Wagner Montes (PDT)

Brancos/Nulos Não Sabe

Scenario 1 – Rio de Janeiro

Pesquisa UP – Espontânea

23%

16%

11%

6% 5% 4% 3% 3% 2% 1%

15%

11%

Scenario 2 – Rio de Janeiro

Pesquisa UP - Estimulada

Fonte

: In

stitu

to U

P P

esquis

a e

Mark

eting.

Out/2013

Fonte

: In

stitu

to U

P P

esquis

a e

Mark

eting.

Out/2013

VOTE INTENTIONS – RIO DE JANEIRO STATE

BRAZIL’S PROSPECTS FOR 2014 - Americas Society · PARTY SYSTEM PRESIDENTIALISM BY COALITION BROAD...

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