Brands of SummerData, Don Henley, and the Best Summer Ever

Nobody on the road.

Nobody on the beach.

I feel it in the air.

Data’s now in reach.

Summer is in full swing and Return Path is here to help you get the most out of it. You already know data-driven companies are more profitable. But did you know data-driven beachgoers are statistically more awesome than the rest of the crowd? It’s true.

Return Path’s Consumer Insight solutions provide savvy marketers, financial services professionals, and data scientists with anonymized, item-level receipt data from more than one million active US consumers.

Item-level detail means business professionals can now see purchase information like never before. And access to transactional data for more than 500 companies means sharper, more accurate market analysis across dozens of industries.

We looked at sample cohorts of consumers with at least two years’ purchase history to bring you trends from some of the hottest summer retailers. Consumers in each sample made at least one purchase from each respective retailer between January 2014 and December 2015.

So, with data in hand, we’ll show you how to max your cool while minimizing your p-value in five easy steps:

STEP 1STEP 2STEP 3STEP 4STEP 5

Get in Shape: BeachbodySummer Wear: Hollister and American EagleSunglasses On: Warby ParkerOn the Beach: Sandals and Carnival Cruise LineRadio On: Spotify

Get in Shape: Beachbody

It’s not too late to get in shape for summer. Some of the most popular diets and workouts available today promise results in as little as a few days. (That might be a stretch, but go for it!) You certainly have a wide range of choices when it comes to picking your program.

Beachbody is perhaps best known for producing the popular P90X series, but they also sell other fitness DVDs, nutrition shakes, and accessories. While the brand’s popularity continues to climb, sales data indicates customers might be worn out.

STEP 1

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4Brands of Summer returnpath.com

Beachbody looks to be a trusted motivational tool, but the steep decline in second-year same-cohort sales points to more of a burning fad than dedication to burning fat. Although the total number of unique monthly Beachbody buyers increased 25%, total average monthly spend declined 14% from 2014 to 2015.

There is no magic solution here. Whether you Hammer and Chisel your way to a doctorate in Shakeology or simply practice better portion control, keep at it and you’ll be fit for summer.

TIME PERIOD SAMPLE SIZE AVERAGE ORDERS PER MONTH:

AVERAGE ORDERS PER BUYER:

AVERAGE SPEND PER BUYER:

January 2014-December 2015

4,895 active US consumers 255 1.07 $51

Get in Shape: Beachbody STEP 1

Month/Year

Monthly Buyer Count

Jan

2014

Apr

201

4

Jul 2

014

Oct

201

4

Jan

2015

Apr

201

5

Jul 2

015

Oct

201

5

Dec

201

5

Month/Year

Monthly Spend

Jan

2014

Apr

201

4

Jul 2

014

Oct

201

4

Jan

2015

Apr

201

5

Jul 2

015

Oct

201

5

Dec

201

5

5Brands of Summer returnpath.com

Summer Wear: Hollister and American Eagle

All that working out means you’re going to need a stylish new wardrobe! It’s good to show off, but, unfortunately, most public establishments still have “no shoes, no shirt, no service” policies. No matter. We have everything you need to get dudded out for your trip to the beach.

In order to better understand how things are trending, we looked at two giants of summertime retail: Hollister and American Eagle. Hollister is beachy, West Coast, cool. American Eagle is casual, East Coast, prep. Together, the companies dominate and dictate the world of summer style.

STEP 2

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TIME PERIOD SAMPLE SIZE AVERAGE ORDERS PER MONTH:

AVERAGE ORDERS PER BUYER:

AVERAGE SPEND PER BUYER:

January 2014-December 2015

Summer Wear: Hollister and American Eagle STEP 2

7,537 active US consumers 634 1.2 $71.72

Hollister follows cyclical sales trends, with significant increases in late-summer sales for back-to-school shopping. Our data shows the bastion of beachiness maintained about the same number of buyers in 2015 as in 2014. However, Hollister customers spent 7% less for the same period.

Month/Year

Monthly Buyer Count

Jan

2014

Apr

201

4

Jul 2

014

Oct

201

4

Jan

2015

Apr

201

5

Jul 2

015

Oct

201

5

Dec

201

5

Month/Year

Monthly Spend

Jan

2014

Apr

201

4

Jul 2

014

Oct

201

4

Jan

2015

Apr

201

5

Jul 2

015

Oct

201

5

Dec

201

5

7Brands of Summer returnpath.com

American Eagle is the big kahuna of summer wear. With clothing that is stylish yet timeless; inexpensive but not cheap, American Eagle has struck a balance with a wide demographic blend of shoppers. As with many retailers, AE struggled in Q4 2015, but still managed to churn out 3% revenue growth in a tough market. Our data captured this trend as you can see in the charts below. As for summertime, it looks like August is the prime month for AE; a mix of back-to-school shoppers and those who finally powered through their P90X.

15,184 active US consumers 1,500 1.23 $75.86

TIME PERIOD SAMPLE SIZE AVERAGE ORDERS PER MONTH:

AVERAGE ORDERSPER BUYER:

AVERAGE SPEND PER BUYER:

January 2014-December 2015

Summer Wear: Hollister and American Eagle STEP 2

Month/Year

Monthly Buyer Count

Jan

2014

Apr

201

4

Jul 2

014

Oct

201

4

Jan

2015

Apr

201

5

Jul 2

015

Oct

201

5

Dec

201

5

Month/Year

Monthly Spend

Jan

2014

Apr

201

4

Jul 2

014

Oct

201

4

Jan

2015

Apr

201

5

Jul 2

015

Oct

201

5

Dec

201

5

Sunglasses On: Warby Parker

Complement your summer style and protect your peepers with a sweet pair of shades. Vision care in the US is a stunning $35 billion a year industry. And while much of that is devoted to regular glasses, contacts, and other eye care products, sunglasses and designer frames still rake in about $3 billion annually. Whether your latest pair came from the gas station or Chopard, you might think about stocking up on some moderately-priced sunnies for splashing about this summer.

STEP 3

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9Brands of Summer returnpath.com

TIME PERIOD SAMPLE SIZE AVERAGE ORDERS PER MONTH:

AVERAGE ORDERS PER BUYER:

AVERAGE SPEND PER BUYER:

January 2014-December 2015

Sunglasses On: Warby Parker STEP 3

5,008 active US consumers 291 1.11 $140.37

Things are looking bright for Warby Parker. The socially-conscious glasses retailer that donates a pair for every pair sold has had strong year-over-year growth. The company is still relatively young, but given its perennial necessity, it doesn’t seem to be suffering from typical retail cycles. Our two-year cohort analysis shows respective increases of 39% and 49% for the number of unique monthly purchasers and total spend year over year. That bodes well for this disruptive brand.

Month/Year

Monthly Buyer Count

Jan

2014

Apr

201

4

Jul 2

014

Oct

201

4

Jan

2015

Apr

201

5

Jul 2

015

Oct

201

5

Dec

201

5

Month/Year

Monthly Spend

Jan

2014

Apr

201

4

Jul 2

014

Oct

201

4

Jan

2015

Apr

201

5

Jul 2

015

Oct

201

5

Dec

201

5

On the Beach: Sandals and Carnival

Nobody on the road? Nobody on the beach? Based on our data,that looks to be the case. We looked at item-level receipt data from Sandals Resorts and Carnival Cruise Line. While order numbers are strong (especially with Carnival), they remain heavily cyclical. Simply put, most birds flock to the tropics during the winter. The good news is, if you are headed on vacation, you might have paradise all to yourself.

STEP 4

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11Brands of Summer returnpath.com

TIME PERIOD SAMPLE SIZE AVERAGE ORDERS PER MONTH:

AVERAGE ORDERS PER BUYER:

AVERAGE SPEND PER BUYER:

January 2014-December 2015

On the Beach: Sandals and Carnival STEP 4

If you’re a fan of the American version of The Office, you know all about Michael Scott’s affinity for Sandals Resorts. Data is less conclusive about the average customer’s loyalty over time. Our sample cohort of Sandals customers shows a weak summer in 2014 with a significant upswing in summer 2015. The inconsistency could spell lack of repeat business, change in vacation destination, or even a manifestation of the fact Americans are notoriously bad at taking a break. Regardless, the sales trend is generally positive for Sandals, meaning customers who do take time off seem to be generally pleased with the experience.

415 active US consumers 21 1.07 $4,893

Month/Year

Monthly Buyer Count

Jan

2014

Apr

201

4

Jul 2

014

Oct

201

4

Jan

2015

Apr

201

5

Jul 2

015

Oct

201

5

Dec

201

5

Month/Year

Monthly Spend

Jan

2014

Apr

201

4

Jul 2

014

Oct

201

4

Jan

2015

Apr

201

5

Jul 2

015

Oct

201

5

Dec

201

5

12Brands of Summer returnpath.com

TIME PERIOD SAMPLE SIZE AVERAGE ORDERS PER MONTH:

AVERAGE ORDERS PER BUYER:

AVERAGE SPEND PER BUYER:

January 2014-December 2015

On the Beach: Sandals and Carnival STEP 4

Carnival offers travel to destinations all over the world. Our data shows a post-holiday 2014 rush to sand and sun. Rather than gifts for loved ones, these purchases appear to reflect a desire to escape wintry weather for exotic locales like Hawaii and the Bahamas. Overall, sales increased significantly from 2014 to 2015. (Consumer Insight data shows a 45% increase in total spend.) And although sales tend to drop over the course of the year, a turn of the calendar means anchors aweigh for revenue.

4,688 active US consumers 445 1.45 $1,168

Month/Year

Monthly Buyer Count

Jan

2014

Apr

201

4

Jul 2

014

Oct

201

4

Jan

2015

Apr

201

5

Jul 2

015

Oct

201

5

Dec

201

5

Month/Year

Monthly Spend

Jan

2014

Apr

201

4

Jul 2

014

Oct

201

4

Jan

2015

Apr

201

5

Jul 2

015

Oct

201

5

Dec

201

5

Radio On: Spotify

Eagles or Ataris? Buddy Holly or Weezer? Beethoven or J Hova? No matter what your taste in music, one thing is certain: you have a multitude of options for listening to your favorite jams. Pandora, Tidal, iTunes, and Spotify are all capitalizing on the market shift to subscription-based streaming services. Our panel of more than one million US consumers shows an enormous amount of interest in streaming music. Here’s what we found for one of the hottest streaming providers: Spotify.

STEP 5

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14Brands of Summer returnpath.com

TIME PERIOD SAMPLE SIZE AVERAGE ORDERS PER MONTH:

AVERAGE ORDERS PER BUYER:

AVERAGE SPEND PER BUYER:

January 2014-December 2015

Radio On: Spotify STEP 5

Unphased by immense competition in the streaming music industry, Spotify has forged a path of solid earnings and continued growth. Markets have responded in kind. In March of this year, private equity firm TPG led a round of convertible debt financing, injecting $1 billion into the rising star. With that kind of cash and a forthcoming IPO, you know the Spotify crew is smiling at everyone.

According to Return Path’s Consumer Insight data, Spotify reached new heights during the 2015 holiday season. That seems to be the busy time of year, though we couldn’t help but notice the pre-summer spike in May 2015. Nothing beats great tunes to go with great weather.

32,642 active US consumers 1,900 1.03 $6.49

Month/Year

Monthly Buyer Count

Jan

2014

Apr

201

4

Jul 2

014

Oct

201

4

Jan

2015

Apr

201

5

Jul 2

015

Oct

201

5

Dec

201

5

Month/Year

Monthly Spend

Jan

2014

Apr

201

4

Jul 2

014

Oct

201

4

Jan

2015

Apr

201

5

Jul 2

015

Oct

201

5

Dec

201

5

Conclusion

Alright. You’re rocking a six pack thanks to Beachbody. You’re so this summer with your American Eagle tee. You’ve got your hair slicked back and your Warby Parkers on. You’re cruising to Jamaica’s largest freshwater pool at Sandals. And most importantly, you’ve got Spotify on, blasting Don Henley. You are officially ready for summer. Go out and enjoy it. We can tell you our love for data will still be strong, after the brands of summer have gone.

Methodology

Return Path collects and curates item-level receipt data from the inboxes of more than one million opted-in US consumers. Our proprietary parsing algorithm scrubs emails of personally identifiable information (PII), seeks out eReceipts, and extracts purchase information. The end product is a robust, structured, clean data set, ready for analysis.

Data used to compile the charts in this analysis reflects both online and offline transactions. Each sample cohort consists of consumers for whom we have at least two years of purchase data and who made a purchase from respective retailers anytime between January 2014 and December 2015.

For more information or to try Consumer Insight data

for yourself, contact:

Eric WeinbergExecutive Vice President

eric.weinberg@returnpath.com1-646-367-3818

Anita AbseyGeneral Manager, Consumer Insight

anita.absey@returnpath.com1-646-367-3902