Brains, Evolution, Computers & Companies

Correlative mappings of decision making and learning systems

by

Ed Lee

Objectives of talk

Demonstrate how some decision making and learning in companies correlates to similar processes in the brain

Present a useful tool for analyzing our own decision making and learning attitudes

Introductory remarks

Researching a book: Plantations in the Rain Forest: the future of civilization a study of human systems in the biosphere

Fundamental questions of book: How has nature generated robust life for 4

billion years? What can we do to increase civilization’s

robustness? Problem: author is an engineer, businessman

doing a cram course on nature

Overview of talk

Evolution

Reason

ScientificMethod

This Talk

Evolution

Artifact

Organism

Strata of Evolution

Quanta, Uncertainty

Atoms

Inorganic Molecules

Organic Molecules

Cells

MulticellularOrganisms

Mammals

Evolution as seen by an engineer

Localized order (structure) emerges from global randomness Local negative entropy Extraction, construction processes

Strata with bi-directional stochastic coupling Catalysts and enzymes

Dynamic equilibriums Overproduction and vigorous pruning

(opposites) keep each other robust

Evolution extracted complex brains

Quanta,Uncertainty

RandomMotion

EnhancedMotion

ReactiveMotion

Hunting,gathering

Pro-ActiveCultivation,Civilization

DirectedMotion

Uncertainty is a key tool

Weak bonds, stochastic links, ensembles of crude cues Mutations Plasticity

Produces diverse, niche solutions Robust response for unforeseen global

changes Stabilizes dynamic systems

Friction in mechanical systems Trading costs, varied beliefs in stock markets

Ambivalent attitudes

Can be threatening Error, noise, turbulence, chaos, illness Hierarchies formed to control, eliminate them

Essential to playfulness Games Humour

Critical to communication

How old are you?

An incomplete question To nearest year culturally implicit

Uncertain answer enabled a quick response Decoupled most contexts Short coding of question and answer

Probably a maximum Value/effort Value/time

Other extreme: Descartes

Which attitude fits you?

Ready, fire, aim! Ready, aim, fire! Ready, aim, don’t fire…

unless certain of bulls eye! You made me miss!

Choice determines Time to respond to a stimulus

(sense of urgency) Probable accuracy of response Number of stimuli responded to Rate and nature of learning/change

Which choice fits evolution? Brains?

Attitudes of decision makers

Fearful

Accepts Responsibility

Disowns Responsibility

VictimUses past failures to excuse personalresponsibility, or to demand specialconsiderations

Change

StabilityInnovators

Early Adopters

CrooksTerrorists

Addicts

AdventurerUncertainty is spice of life.Success enables more risk

Cr af t sper sonSeeks success through excellenceUncertainty is rationally minimized

BureaucratAvo

ids

Failur

e

Wants no uncertainty. Avoids anyaccountability for failure, at all costs

Companies are organisms

Life Cycles Embryos (startups) Growth and specialization Maturity Senility and death

Metabolic requirements Profits measure input/output efficiencies

Can reproduce (sexual, asexual, cloning)

Living community (flesh and structure) People (employees, customers, investors, etc.) Methods (maps, procedures, norms, policies) Materials (money, equipment, facilities, products)

Companies exercise brain-like functions Mildly intelligent Learn, remember

Experiences Simple to moderately complex algorithms Store in locally meaningful maps

Layers of decision making elements Complexity, cycle times, number of similar

decisions per year Differing cue sets

Theoretically hierarchical

Manager(Decide)

Staff(Observe)

Line(Act)

Data Commands

Typical Organization Chart

CEO

COO CIOCFO

VPEngineering

VPManujfacturing

VPMarketing

Finance

Purchasing

Assy & Test

Mfg.Engineering

Mgr. HumanResourcesa

Marketing

National Sales

InternationalSales

ProjectManager

ProjectManager

IT

Documentation

Bottlenecks in hierarchies

In hierarchies the decision making bottleneck is always at the top

Actually Stratified

CEO

COO CIOCFO

VPEngineering

VPManujfacturing

VPMarketing

Finance

Purchasing

Assy & Test

Mfg.Engineering

Mgr. HumanResourcesa

Marketing

National Sales

InternationalSales

ProjectManager

ProjectManager

IT

Documentation

Time scales of decisions for strata

Short term: decisions from experience, internal processing, predictable results

Long term: observe competitors choices, uncertain results

10

101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108

100

1000

10000

1 HR 30 D 1 YR

CEO

DepartmentManagers

Workers

Strategic CEO Functions

Select key executives Sponsor them

Lead executive team Maintain cohesive/timely strategic vision Maintain flexibility in changing market Set tone, spirit by example Resolve intrinsic strategic conflicts

Select, lead key stakeholders Board

(Results of efforts affect “health” 2-3 yrs later)

Distribution of decision making attitudes

Young, small companies Adventurer at top Craftspeople dominate lower strata Quickly adapt to market

Old, large companies Craftsperson or Bureaucrat at top Bureaucrats dominate middle management Hierarchical processes Expect market to adapt to them

Dorsal view of company

Engineering

Materials

Finance

Admin and IT

HumanResources

Sales and Marketing

CEOCFO COO

Conf.Room

Lobby

Manufacturing

ManufacturingEngineering

Anterior

Posterior

Learning and Memory

Local maps specialized by function Working memory: people Short term: notes, redlines Long term: formal documents, data bases

Some long term information received from other areas within company converted to local maps

Thermal maps

Engineering

Materials

Finance

Admin and IT

HumanResources

Sales and Marketing

CEOCFO COO

Conf.Room

Lobby

Manufacturing

ManufacturingEngineering

Engineering

Materials

Finance

Admin and IT

HumanResources

Sales and Marketing

CEOCFO COO

Conf.Room

Lobby

Manufacturing

ManufacturingEngineering

Launch new design project Launch new product

Marketing Funnel: extracting customers from environment

UnwashedMasses

Suspects ProspectsProspects

in-heatCustomers

Cue Set 1 Cue Set 2 Cue Set 3 Cue Set 4

Recruit

Computers: artifacts of Reason

Artifacts of 19th century belief in a clockwork universe Rigid hierarchical control Synchronous Centralized decision making Deterministic

Characteristics

Finite states Deterministic, pig-headed

make mistakes, but never learn Fast, ~109 ops/s

~2 x106 ops during an action potential Extremely complex algorithms Fragile, tolerates

<10-17 bit errors/ s No connection errors

Computer’s hierarchical Architecture

Inputs(Observe)

Electronic Bus(Communicate)

7 56

121110

8 4

21

9 3

Clock

System Timing

Outputs(Act)

CPU(Decide)

Memory(Store)

Instr.Set Map

OperatingSystem Bios

Programs andData

Architecture

CPU rich in logic, only element capable of reading maps, implementing algorithms

CPU controls all timing and relationships…the ultimate micro-manager

Memory stores patterns that have no intrinsic meaning. Only meaningful to CPU provided it keeps track of

storage locations relative to program String of patterns, one degree of associative freedom

Bottleneck is in transporting codes in and out of the CPU (von Neumann Bottleneck)

Thermal maps don’t change for novel or familiar tasks

Some conclusions Companies have some useful correlations to Brains

extract and process the familiar ignore or adapt to the unfamiliar

selectively learn stratified, stochastic

bi-directional influences time scales and complexities

Computers don’t correlate with brains…but do correlate with some rational beliefs process the specified ignore or crash from the unspecified

- never learn deterministic hierarchy

bottom-up data top-down control

Conclusion

A major difference between biological systems and computers is the role of uncertainty.

Thanks

To Susumu Tonegawa and Bob Silvey for the opportunity to be here

To Matt Wilson and Morgan Sheng for helpful feedback

To Jeffrey Goodman for his repeated help and some great laughs.

For more information

To download copies of this presentation and related management essays go to:

www.elew.com