Calculating GDP Nominal GDP, Real GDP, and the GDP Deflator.
BRAINPOoL Final Conference: Towards a Beyond GDP Narrative
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Transcript of BRAINPOoL Final Conference: Towards a Beyond GDP Narrative
![Page 1: BRAINPOoL Final Conference: Towards a Beyond GDP Narrative](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062419/558a5340d8b42ae56a8b4756/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Beyond GDP: From Measurement to Politics and Policy
Development of a compelling narrative
Paris 24 March 2014
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1. The challenge
2. Labour markets, green economy and the narrative
3. Theoretical underpinning
4. Next steps
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A narrative creates appeal and credibility
• A good narrative wins votes – it has to have appeal but also give credibility to a party’s programme – by also explaining
• So Reagan’s narrative had appeal and credibility
– Cut taxes (direct voter appeal)
– We would be better off if we got the government off our backs (explanation)
– Based on a neo-liberal version of neo-classical economics (theory, credibility)
• It is easy but not enough to attack this kind of thing – we need a Beyond GDP narrative of this type and we don’t have one
• ‘Wellbeing’ and ‘sustainability’ associated with what have been at best politically weak messages (happiness, constraints)
• So what is electorally appealing about new policies?
• And what kind of theory will give this credibility?
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1. The challenge
2. Labour markets, green economy and the narrative
3. Theoretical underpinning
4. Next steps
![Page 5: BRAINPOoL Final Conference: Towards a Beyond GDP Narrative](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062419/558a5340d8b42ae56a8b4756/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
The ‘GDP’ approach to labour market policy…
GrowthEfficient Labour markets
Jobs
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…is associated with a slogan summarising the narrative
GrowthEfficient Labour markets
Jobs
Jobs and growth
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The ‘beyond GDP’ approach aims to maximise wellbeing
GrowthEfficient Labour markets
Jobs
Good Jobs(security, work life balance, conditions, pay etc)
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…and recognises there is sometimes a trade-off
GrowthEfficient Labour markets
Jobs
Good Jobs(security, work life balance, conditions, pay etc)
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It is difficult to optimise
GrowthEfficient Labour markets
Jobs
Good Jobs(security, work life balance, conditions, pay etc)
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So the aim is to create the conditions to soften trade-off
GrowthEfficient Labour markets
Jobs
Good Jobs(security, work life balance, conditions, pay etc)
Economic structures and norms
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…requiring a full range of government actions…
GrowthEfficient Labour markets
Jobs
Good Jobs(security, work life balance, conditions, pay etc)
Economic structures and norms
Active government – the ‘entrepreneur-ial state’
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…and an alternative narrative
GrowthEfficient Labour markets
Jobs
Good Jobs(security, work life balance, conditions, pay etc)
Economic structures and norms
Active government – the ‘entrepreneur-ial state’
Jobs and growth
The state securing good jobs
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Can this convince?
• We are not there yet – growth is still seen as the sign of economic policy success
• However…
– jobs always feature in polling as a top concern, and
– some (UK) evidence of shift in focus from growth to whether life is getting better
• Potentially opening space for
– median real wages
– other job related drivers of wellbeing…security, equality (fairness), decent living standards for all, good work
• And the broader message:
– markets deliver growth but growth doesn’t deliver these good things – so we need collective (government) action….
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As sometimes framed, the green economy problem is unsolvable
xMaximise wellbeing by maximising aggregate consumption
Live within environmentallimits
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There are two strategies dealing with this – green growth…
A green economy
Maintain growth and jobs by investing in the green economy
Live within environmentallimits
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…and decoupling wellbeing from consumption
A green economy
Maintain growth and jobs by investing in the green economy
Live within environmentallimits
Maintain wellbeing growth but restrict or change aggregate consumption growth
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Both involve lower/changed aggregate consumption vs b.a.u.
A green economy
Maintain growth and jobs by investing in the green economy
Live within environmentallimits
Maintain wellbeing growth but restrict or change aggregate consumption growth
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So other elements have to balance consumption in the narrative…
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For example…
• FAIRNESS
– Those who can afford the burden pay their share
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For example…
• FAIRNESS
– Those who can afford the burden pay their share
• SECURITY
– Reducing environmental risk – but also jobs, housing, income, health
– Language of “securing” and “protecting”
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For example…
• FAIRNESS
– Those who can afford the burden pay their share
• SECURITY
– Reducing environmental risk – but also jobs, housing, income, health
– Language of “securing” and “protecting”
• WEALTH
– Collective and individual; linked to security – and basis for quality of life
– Language of “building” and “improving”
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For example…
• FAIRNESS
– Those who can afford the burden pay their share
• SECURITY
– Reducing environmental risk – but also jobs, housing, income, health
– Language of “securing” and “protecting”
• WEALTH
– Collective and individual; linked to security – and basis for quality of life
– Language of “building” and “improving”
• QUALITY OF LIFE
– Now and in the future
– Based on public engagement to define the important, therefore local
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1. The challenge
2. Labour markets, green economy and the narrative
3. Theoretical underpinning
4. Next steps
![Page 24: BRAINPOoL Final Conference: Towards a Beyond GDP Narrative](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062419/558a5340d8b42ae56a8b4756/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
There is a wealth of theory that can be drawn on – for example…
• Outcomes– Subjective wellbeing data as a guide to what to aim for (Wellbeing science)
– Worker interests – including fulfilment (eg Marxists)
– Social relations (Communitarians)
– The resources and capabilities needed to function (Capabilities approach)
• Explanations– The natural tendency of markets to create inequality (eg Galbraith)
– The natural tendency of financial markets to create instability (eg Minsky)
– Institutional power relations rather than markets as key to explaining (Institutionalists)
– Land as a factor of production (Ecological economists)
– Social reproduction which occurs in the home (Feminist political economists)
• What we do to get there– Government as the legitimate and effective driver of outcomes (Social democrats)
But more work needed of course – both to synthesise and create theory
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1. The challenge
2. Labour markets, green economy and the narrative
3. Theoretical underpinning
4. Next steps
![Page 26: BRAINPOoL Final Conference: Towards a Beyond GDP Narrative](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062419/558a5340d8b42ae56a8b4756/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Next steps
• Democratic renewal– Work with people – including at local level – to define what is important, eg jobs– Link to work with parliamentarians (participative with representative democracy)
• Identify policies– What is needed to deliver what is important? How is this new?
• Communications– Different messages and language for different audiences – same fundamentals– Positive messages reflecting what is important
• Indicators– Part of the narrative: research effectiveness of alternatives (index/dashboard)– Statisticians to develop their role as agents of change
• Business– Establish the business version of the Beyond GDP narrative
• Link to theory of the economy– Synthesise existing work (eg how will the economy work at low/zero growth?)– Test starting axioms (neo-classical vs positive economy)
• Progress reports – (eg mapping of the 28 EU governments)