thereport ISSUE 355 | 26 NOVEMBER 2014

Bottom lineWhat we learned from Spotify’s financials

Contents05 Beyond music: Yik Yak06 Pinboard: Stats, deals, startups and more 08 Country profile: India

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For all the heat around artists and Spotify, the bigger question has always been whether or not streaming music is a sustainable business model. Or, at least, sustainable without regular, massive injections of venture capital to cauterise operating losses. So what do Spotify’s latest consolidated financial results for 2013 tell us about how its business is growing and what its future prospects might be? Here’s what we learned from rooting through the filing.

COVER FEATURE

Bottom line

COVER FEATURE

What we learned from Spotify’s financials

First off, Spotify’s turnover grew impressively in 2013, with a 73.6% year-on-year rise in revenues to €746.9m. Although yes, annual growth is slowing

as the company matures: in 2011 Spotify’s revenues were up 157.8% year-on-year, while in 2012 the rise was 126%.

Even so, the growth of the biggest pureplay streaming music service is clear. As are the growth in its operating losses, which increased by 16.4% to €93.1m in 2013. As Spoti-sceptics have already noted, that’s €238.1m of operating losses across the last four years.

Still, those operating losses are decelerating faster than Spotify’s turnover growth: they increased by 96.9% in 2011, 85.3% in 2012, then just 16.4% in 2013, as individual subsidiaries in mature markets like the UK and France reported profits for the first time.

But Spotify remains a lossmaking business, so what’s behind these losses? Interestingly, the 2013 financials make it clear that this isn’t a story of ballooning royalties. Not yet, anyway, given that licensing renegotiations

Turnover €746.9mCost of revenue €616.4mGross profit €130.4mOperating loss €93.1mActive users 36mPaying subscribers 8mMarkets available in 55

SPOTIFY’S 2013: BY NUMBERS

are looming in the not-too-distant future.Spotify’s cost of revenue – a financial

category that is mainly royalties, but also includes customer service costs, payment processing fees, facility and equipment costs and some salaries – increased by 58.2% in 2013 to €616.4m.

The key point here: that was 82.5% of Spotify’s turnover, which is the lowest proportion yet for the company – it was 90.5% in 2012, 97.7% in 2011 and 104% in 2010. Spotify’s gross profits were up 220.4% in 2013 to €130.4m, which at least shows that its royalty commitments are not yet running away from it.

So, that operating loss? In 2013, it was largely down to Spotify’s aggressive expansion – both geographically, and in product development terms.

The company’s research and development costs jumped by 91.6% to €72.7m, while its sales and marketing costs more than doubled to €110.8m, as Spotify went from 17 countries at the end of 2012 to 55 by the end of 2013. The company describes itself as still in an “investment phase”, and the figures back that up.

SubS replace adS

One of the most interesting conclusions to be drawn from the financials is just how much of a subscription-based business Spotify is these days. Not a surprise in itself, but it’s good to have the figures showing how the company’s split between advertising and subscription revenues has evolved.

In 2010, 71.2% of Spotify’s revenues came from subscriptions, and 28.6% from advertising. The next year the split was 82.4% to 15.8%, then in 2012 it was 87.1% to 12.9%.

And in 2013, subscriptions accounted for 90.9% of Spotify’s overall turnover.

Using the company’s year-end totals of 36m active users and 8m paying subscribers, it’s possible to roughly estimate that, in 2013, 90.9% of Spotify’s revenues came from 22.2% of its users. A classic “freemium” business, albeit not to the extent that some of the big mobile games companies are.

For example, Candy Crush Saga developer King reported revenues of $514.4m for Q3 2014, with its games played by 348m monthly unique users, of whom 8.7m spent any money on in-game items or currency – 2.5% of its users generating 100% of its turnover.

Spotify and King are very different businesses, though: freemium driving $10 monthly subscriptions versus freemium driving in-app purchases between $0.69 and $69.99 at a time, with advertising the additional element in Spotify’s business.

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ISSUE 35526.11.14 COVER FEATURE

Free verSuS paid

More importantly, Spotify’s financials provide more fuel for the current debate about free versus premium on-demand streaming music.

If you’re Taylor Swift, you see Spotify’s free tier as a worrying encouragement for fans to see music as not worth paying for. If you’re Spotify, you see that free tier as the crucial funnel to encouraging even more fans to pay for music via subscriptions. Both parties had their say publicly on this over recent weeks.

Don’t expect that argument to be settled in the near future, but Spotify’s financials have reminded us of something more intrinsic about the company: Spotify is a subscription business, like Netflix.

That’s what will define its strategy in the big battle to come in 2015 with YouTube Music Key (yes, a subscription service, but launched by a company that’s most certainly

an advertising business) and whatever Beats Music becomes from Apple (equally clearly a hardware business).

Or, to put it another way, critics who accuse Spotify of dragging the value of music down to “free” may be missing the point that the company’s chances of survival, let alone prosperity, depend on it persuading ever more people to pay for music through subscriptions.

deSktop to mobile

Spotify also became a mobile business in 2013, by its own words. “2013 saw Spotify making a clear transition from desktop to mobile, with the launch of a free Spotify tier on all platforms,” explained the company in its financial filing. “Today, the majority of all new users signing up for Spotify are mobile. Making that transition from desktop to mobile means that our front door is always open.”

It also means that front door is going to be guarded by the exact same two rivals – Apple and Google – through their app stores and their ability to push their own competing services onto iOS and Android devices.

If sales and marketing costs doubled in 2013, what will happen to them in 2015 and beyond, when Spotify continues its push to sign up the kind of mainstream music fans that may also be finding Beats or Music Key on their homescreens?

the battle For excluSiveS and partnerShipS

Remember, too, that Apple’s proper entry into the on-demand streaming market is likely to kickstart a battle for exclusives, particularly for some top-tier artists who – according to several sources – are open (or, indeed, pushing) for advance payments from streaming services to secure their catalogues. More costs.

Smart partnerships – whether with telcos, car-makers or audio hardware firms – and smart marketing using platforms like Facebook and Twitter’s app install ads or emerging messaging platforms like Tango and Snapchat look even more crucial than ever for Spotify.

One sobering stat from its results: the company ended 2013 with €215.7m of cash at the bank and in hand – $268.7m for ease of comparison with, say, Apple ($14.1bn) at the end of 2013, or Google ($14.8bn). Millions against billions.

“We’ve been doing this for years, and what we’ve built is the largest set of data of the most engaged music customers,” Spotify co-founder Daniel Ek told The New Yorker recently. “I think it would be really hard for anyone to come in and do what we do better.”

He added, “Maybe someone could lower the cost of a streaming service and make it hard for us to survive. But am I concerned that someone will build a better product? No, because they can’t.”

It’s a moving target – hence those rising R&D investments for Spotify, as well as its acquisition of the company enhancing the

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ISSUE 35526.11.14

Spotify’s financial health in terms of royalty payments, but if anything, it’s the other costs around its business that will define its future.

Its financials from 2013 are a fascinating 11-month-old snapshot of the leading streaming music firm’s evolution to that point; but whatever your view is on the rising margins or operating losses, they’re not that instructive, really, on Spotify’s survival prospects. The biggest challenges are yet to come. :)

data set referred to by Ek. Right at the end of its 2013 financials came confirmation of the price it paid for The Echo Nest in March 2014: €55m, with €6.6m of that in cash and the rest in shares.

Spotify’s path towards a future exit (whether by IPO or sale) may give it the resources to make similar bets on startups it feels can bolster its aim to provide the “better product” in the streaming market.

The music industry talks a lot about

2010 2011 2012 2013

73.9

Cost ofrevenue

AnnualTurnover

76.8

190.4 186.0

430.3389.6

746.9616.4

Annual turnover v cost of revenue

COVER FEATURE

2010

2011

2012

2013

Subscriptionrevenue

Adrevenue

Subscription v ad revenue

across the US, which rings another bell for investors: that’s how Facebook started its march to ubiquity back in the day. More

recently, Tinder followed a similar path to popularity.

Yik Yak had already raised $11.5m of

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ISSUE 35526.11.14

If there’s a better sign of a tech bubble than two fresh-faced graduates named Tyler Droll and Brooks Buffington raising $62m of funding for a messaging app that only

launched a year ago, we’ve yet to see it.(Yes, amazing names. We hope they’re

real.)Yik Yak is the app and, according to the

Wall Street Journal, the massive funding round is very real, valuing Yik Yak “in the low hundreds of millions of dollars” and led by top-tier VC firm, Sequoia Capital.

That’s the same company that invested in another messaging app, WhatsApp, before it was bought by Facebook for $19bn earlier this year. And if there’s froth around Yik Yak, that’s the reason: the belief within Silicon Valley that WhatsApp won’t be the last monster exit for a messaging app.

So what is Yik Yak? It’s an app for iPhone and Android smartphones that enables people to post messages and then browse those posted by other users near their current location.

“Yik Yak acts like a local bulletin board for your area by showing the most recent posts from other users around you. It allows anyone to connect and share information with others without having to know them,” as its app store listing puts it.

Launched in November 2013, it’s been growing like a weed on college campuses

BEYOND MUSIC

Yik Yak yucks up $62m in fundingCollege campuses trigger a messaging app feeding frenzy

funding in 2014 before the latest round, although the company hasn’t announced any active user numbers since February, when it had 100k.

And yes, you’ve probably guessed that the company is – in Silicon Valley parlance – “pre-revenue”. There’s no indication yet of how it plans to make money, although some combination of in-app purchases and local advertising would seem the likeliest route.

Yik Yak isn’t doing much with multimedia yet – no photos or videos, for example – although it clearly has ambitions to be seen as a real-time news platform, with a feature called Peek to stick a pin on a digital map and earwig on messages from any location you like.

Buffington described this as “adding another layer to news tracking that supplements on-the-ground reporting and overcomes other social networks’ limitations”, although Yik Yak’s anonymous nature makes verifying people’s credibility even harder than on Twitter.

As Yik Yak grows, though, its anonymous nature will bring other controversies. It’s already been criticised regularly in the US for its cyber-bullying potential – and was even used to threaten a high-school shooting attack recently, leading to the arrest of a student.

$62m will at least hire Yik Yak some decent lawyers for any future lawsuits, while the company plots how to continue growing fast enough to persuade a bigger technology firm to panic-buy it. :)

Yik Yak has been growing like a weed on college campuses across the US, which rings another bell for investors: that’s how Facebook started its march to ubiquity back in the day”

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ISSUE 35526.11.14 TOOLS Pinboard » Deals

Bandcamp has announced it has paid out $87m to independent acts using its platform. It is also allowing artists to run their own subscription services (offering music, merchandise and tickets).

Shazam has partnered with Adspace Networks in the US to bring interactive ads to over 200 shopping malls in the country.

Premium online video platform Vevo has paid out $500m to rightsholders since 2010. It says it now delivers 100bn streams a year.

Spotify listening room service Soundrop is closing and the company behind it will instead focus efforts on Show.co, its music marketing platform.

BANDCAMP

SOUNDROP VICE MEDIA/LIVE NATION

OMNIFONE

Vice Media is partnering with Live Nation to create what is being described as a “new digital platform” next year. It will draw on live shows as well as artists signed to Live

Nation’s management arm.

@BenedictEvans I’m old enough to remember when it was Amazon that

was evil. I wonder what amazing transformative company it’ll be next

@hunterwalk at startups, data/logs characterized by openness

bec speed, bec don’t know enough yet abt how data will be used. Doesn’t make startup evil.

@paulg You won’t like working for the acquirer. Don’t expect to;

maybe you’ll be pleasantly surprised.

Follow Music Ally on Twitter...twitter.com/musically

Tweets#MusicAllySHAZAM

Omnifone is partnering with Guvera to bring its music streaming service into the Ukraine and Russia. The service has launched in 16 markets in the past year.

VEVO

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ISSUE 35526.11.14 TOOLS

What is it?Technics may be well known for its decks, but now it’s moving into digital music sales. It’s working with 7digital on a new downloads store, called Technics Tracks, which will go live in the UK and Germany in January.

It’s capitalising on Technics’ heritage in audio, though: the store will sell FLAC-quality files, with a cloud locker – familiar from previous 7digital-powered services – so people can download their purchases to various devices. File alongside PonoMusic, which should debut ahead of Technics Tracks’ launch, although there’s also plenty of action around FLAC-quality streaming thanks to the likes of Tidal, Deezer Elite and Qobuz. In truth, the boundaries are blurred: we suspect a decent proportion of hi-def streamers will be cacheing tracks to save bandwidth.

BITTORRENT: NOT JUST FOR PIRATES

SPOTIFY SKIP RATES

TAYLOR SWIFTCHANNEL VIEWS (in millions)

RHAPSODY: REVENUESAND LOSSES

50%

% ofactiveusers

who buymusic

monthly

76%

% whoboughtdigital

music inlast sixmonths

%of active

users whoparticipate

in crowdfunding

campaigns

% ofusers who

spend$100 ormore on

films

11%

35%Source: DavidTouve

60

20

Source: Mashable and TubeFilter

10

0

30

50

40 33.3

59.2

35.1

Pulls musicoff Spotify

25%

8%

STREAMING v RADIO: USERS WHOBOUGHT NEW TRACK UPONHEARING IT FOR FIRST TIME

Source: Billboard and US CountryMusic Association

StreamingRadio

Online debut ofBlank Space

31 Oct 7 Nov 14 Nov

103.8

–14.8

128.6

–14.3

Source: BitTorrent

Songs skipped between30 secs and end of track

Songs skipped within30 secs

No skip

Mill

ions

of U

S$

RevenueQ1-3 2013Net lossQ1-3 2013RevenueQ1-3 2014Net lossQ1-3 2014

Source: Rhapsody

Pinboard » Stats

NEW SERVICE TECHNICS TRACKS

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India, according to the IFPI’s 2014 Music Industry In Numbers report, is fast becoming one of the most important music markets in the Asia region,

alongside China and Japan.Maybe that’s no surprise: India has a vast,

young population (some 1.25bn people in

2013, half of whom are under the age of 25), which is tech-savvy and increasingly rich. This makes for a very attractive music market.

And yet, according to the IFPI, in 2013 India saw its recorded music market fall by 23.3% in trade value to $102.6m. Digital sales fell 23.8% to $67.4m, while physical

revenues also saw a decline of 22.5% to $35.2m – results which further muddy the water of what is already a difficult market to understand.

Shridhar Subramaniam, president of India & the Middle East at Sony Music, suggests that 2013’s result was, in fact, just a blip in what is a booming Indian music market.

“The digital music market has been growing at around 10% year-on-year for the last five years,” he says. “The digital market is now estimated at around $100m.”

The decline, Subramaniam explains, was due to two very specific events: the end of Nokia’s Comes With Music service, which came after the company’s acquisition by Microsoft (and a declining market share); and “a strong regulatory push back on the value-added services business [i.e. non-core services] that was being run by the telcos”.

This, essentially, saw the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India release a new set of guidelines that make it more difficult for telcos to impose value-added services on customers as a way of curbing what it saw as customer harassment.

“They introduced consumer consent gateways, procedures and stiff penalties for consumer complaints,” adds Subramaniam. “As a result, the ringback tone [RBT] business, which accounted for almost 60% of our digital business, decreased by over 30%. It has now plateaued and is returning to modest growth of 5-7% annually.”

The enduring popularity of RBTs is typical of an Indian digital music market that is dominated by mobiles. Subramaniam calls India “a mobile-first market [that] has skipped the desktop and leapfrogged into an entirely mobile internet economy”.

This is being fuelled by enormous growth in smartphone sales, from 20m units in 2013 to 70m in 2014 – and an estimated 150m handset sales in 2015. “There is tremendous activity in the smartphone category, with Google launching sub-$100 Android One smartphones in conjunction with local manufacturers and Samsung launching the Tizen phones later this month,” says Subramaniam.

The Android One debut will be accompanied by the launch of YouTube’s much-anticipated offline mode in India, allowing users to store videos in the YouTube app when on Wi-Fi to watch them later. It is still not entirely clear whether music videos will be included in this mode. Google said “much of YouTube will be available offline in India” without actually specifying what this includes; but this would make sense in a

MARKET PROFILE India

As the second most populous nation in the world (after China), India represents a huge opportunity for the music business, particularly because of the fact that half the country is under the age of 25. The recorded music market there slipped last year, but this was regarded as a “blip” related to the closure of Nokia’s Comes With Music. With ringback tones still important, smartphones will be the key area of growth – but the mobile sector will have to navigate a new and tougher regulatory framework if it is to succeed.

STATS

f Population 1.2bnd GDP per capita US$4,000h Internet users 61.3mi Smartphone users 894mSources: CIA World Factbook

INDIA

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country where YouTube is “the single largest streaming partner to the music industry”, according to Subramaniam. How this would tie into plans for YouTube’s Music Key if or when it launches in India is also unclear.

And it is not just the cost of smartphones that is falling: Subramaniam says that falling data costs are causing “a huge movement of consumers from pirate download sites to ad-supported free streaming sites”.

He adds, “This is a healthy trend, as we expect the legitimate addressable market to quickly hit 100m users of legitimate sites by the end of next year.”

Indeed, music streaming looks set to become one of the most important parts of the digital music industry in India, despite recent bumps in the road such as the closure this year of Dhingana.

Players in the Indian music streaming

market include standalone domestic services like Gaana, Saavn (which bolstered its catalogue of international music with 800k new songs thanks to deals with Warner Music Group and EMI artists in August), Hungama and Eros; international services like Guvera (an Australian service which launched in India earlier this month) and Rdio; operator-owned services including Wynk (Airtel) and Vodafone Music; and device-embedded music services such as Jive (Sony Mobile), Mix Radio (Microsoft), HP Music and Samsung Fun Club.

Subramaniam says he expects more international streaming services to launch in India over the coming years, echoing the views of Himanshu Gupta, a “technology and media amalgamation enthusiast” who last year created considerable interest with a lengthy blog piece on music streaming in India.

In it he predicts that Spotify will enter

the country soon, while running the rule over existing streaming services. Among his conclusions are that Hungama had a competitive advantage in initially being the only service to feature the catalogue of the country’s largest label, T-Series (now also available on Gaana and Saavn); Saavn has “one of the best user interfaces” and Gaana “has almost surpassed Hungama to take the top spot in terms of user awareness”, thanks to years of steady growth.

Nevertheless, Gupta sees no obvious overall winner in India’s music streaming market. “My guess is that the music service scene in India is going to be ripe for at least two years before an eventual winner starts to shape up,” he concludes.

In the same post, Gupta also delves into piracy, which he says is in decline, citing the example of popular filesharing service, Songs PK. “Since mid-2012, when the Indian

Government began trying to crack down on the site, demand has gone down and is going down more,” he says.

No one, however, should be misled into thinking that piracy is no longer a problem for the Indian music industry. Subramaniam says that piracy accounts for some 80% of the music market in India and the International Creativity & Theft-Prevention Caucus in the US claimed earlier this year that copyright piracy had reached alarming levels in India.

India, then, is a music market very much in transition, one that has its problems and its quirks (soundtracks, for example, make up 65% of all music sales). It also has considerable opportunities, as Subramaniam concludes.

“We are expecting the music industry to grow by 12-15% annually for the next two-to-three years,” he says. :)

MARKET PROFILE India continued...

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

36 68

203

Mobile

Subscriptions

18

Ad-supported

Downloads

Other digital

22.2

30.3

11.519.4

32.6

41.5

5.9

41.1

33.7 7.8

6.0

41.7

4.410.4

23.9

3.5

TOTAL39.6

TOTAL54.1

TOTAL65.3

TOTAL67.4

TOTAL88.4

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

45.4

64.2

64.8 58.1 35.2

39.654.1

65.3 67.488.4

TOTAL103.8

TOTAL118.9

TOTAL133.8

TOTAL102.6

TOTAL123.4

Physical

Digital

India: recorded music digital sales (US$ millions, trade value, historical exchange rates) Source: IFPI

India recorded music sales (US$ millions, trade value, historical exchange rates) Source: IFPI

assets that demand cost-effective, innovative forms of information processing for enhanced insight and decision making.”

The Boston Consulting Group’s recent statistics estimate that 2.5bn GBs of data are created each day. The Internet Of Things will drive this growth is data even further.

key iSSueS

The ICO report underlines (amongst other things) the importance of: l considering whether an ethical (as well as a legal) approach to data privacy is appropriate; and l promoting transparency so as to build and maintain trust with users by clearly informing users how their personal data may be used and shared with other commercial partners and empowering them with control to manage their privacy settings. l ensuring data collection is not excessive and employing data minimisation techniques to reduce risk and avoid the creation of unwieldy databases. l anonymising data sets so as to reduce data protection compliance and risk to users’ privacy.

All of the above should be considered alongside the impact of the new draft Data Protection Regulation, as well as the implications of any cross-border data sharing compliance measures that may be required. Relevant issues include:

l identifying whether any personal data will be stored or disclosed outside the European Economic Area (EEA); l putting in place any relevant data processing agreements with partners or suppliers who will have access to any personal data; andl conduct privacy impact assessments (PIAs) on proposed analytics products and services and review procurement processes and policies to evaluate suppliers and distributors in the applicable supply chain.

changing regulatory landScape

The new Data Protection Regulation, which seems likely to be adopted next year, will place statutory obligations not only on data controllers (those who determine the purposes for which personal data will be put) but also on suppliers, known as data processors. In turn, fines for serious breaches will rise from the current £500k cap to the greater of €100k or 2-5% of annual global turnover. Users may need to be notified and the costs of remedying any fall out resulting from any breach will be substantial. Accordingly, those preparing to share data should ensure that relevant precautions and measures are taken to reduce risk and respect users’ privacy. n addition, the DMA launched its new Code Of Conduct earlier this year to implement

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Next Big Sound has partnered with Billboard to run the official Billboard Social Media and Next Big Sound charts. An updated version also

includes an algorithm to predict which acts hit the Billboard 200 chart. Next Big Sound now also supports Spotify in data analytics and allows artists and managers to register and obtain information via dashboards about their artists.

the label

Earlier this year, Warner Music and Shazam announced a strategic collaboration. Warner now accesses Shazam’s user data and Shazam has access to Warner’s exclusive content. And what is this new partnership called? A new kind of record label, called, yes, you guessed it, Big Data. Shazam’s charts data (critically data which is not publicly available) will enable Warner to help identify the next upcoming artists or music trend; a new kind of Big Data A&R.

legal aFFairS

Combining data sets raises significant privacy, as well as licensing, issues in the underlying technology and inbound and outbound data sets. The UK Information Commissioner recently issued guidance on the use of Big Data. The guidance draws on Gartner’s definition, namely, “high-volume, high-velocity and high-variety information

COMMENT

By Philip James

a principle-led, outcomes-based policy. Two out of the five principles relate to data privacy compliance: (i) respect privacy; and (ii) be diligent with data.

the Future

There will undoubtedly be those who remain cynical of data analytics and technology in a creative industry. However, big data and analytics are here to stay. Such innovation should be embraced; it may yet turn out to be one of the industry’s saviours.

Whilst revenue from traditional album sales may be dwindling, targeted and sophisticated use of fan data is key to greater brand engagement for young artists, platforms and labels alike. Artists (who might otherwise have found it previously impossible) will hopefully have a better opportunity to break through, assisted by labels, managers and investors, being able to rely on this dance floor data. :)

ISSUE 35526.11.14

n Philip James is a partner at Sheridans and leads the firm’s technology & data privacy and security & information rights groups.

Dance floor data: data cuts shapes

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ISSUE 35526.11.14

Music Ally is a music business information and strategy company. We focus on the change taking place in the industry and provide information and insight into every aspect of the business, consumer research analysing the changing behaviour and trends in the industry, consultancy services to companies ranging from blue chip retailers and telecoms companies to start-ups; and training around methods to digitally market your artists and maximise the effectiveness of digital campaigns. We also work with a number of high profile music events around the world, from Bogota to Berlin and Brighton, bringing the industry together to have a good commonsense debate and get some consensus on how to move forward.

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