Norman Borlaug’s Scientific Legacies in Wheat

“The seriousness or magnitude of the world food problem should not be underestimated. Recent success in expanding wheat, rice and maize production in Asian countries offers the possibility of buying 20-30 years of time.” - Norman Borlaug, 1969

An Outspoken Visionary

Did we use this time to get ready for the next Green Revolution?

Developing Regions Developed Regions World

Wheat Rice C-Grains Other All Crops

% C

han

ge

Changes for production relative to baseline year 2004 in absence of crop productivity gains from crop germplasm improvement for 1965-2004

Stevenson et al. 2012.

The percentage of people living on less than $1.25 /day fell from 47% in 1990 to 22% in 2010

Globally, the proportion of undernourished people decreased from 23% in 1990 to 15%

UN Millennium Development Goals

In 2012, 1.2 billion people were still living in extreme poverty Today, more people in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa live today with less than $1.50 /day than the entire population at beginning of the Green Revolution The number of people living on less than $2 /day is the same as in 1981 This is exacerbated by slower grain yield increases, climate change, resource scarcity, salinization...

However…

Global Mean Wheat Yield 1961 -2013

Years to increase yield by 500 kg/ha

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

10 years

12 years

13 years

12 years ?? years

536 kg

501 kg

454 kg

524 kg

Global Yield Projection Scenarios for Wheat until 2050

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

5500

6000

19

70

19

74

19

78

19

82

19

86

19

90

19

94

19

98

20

02

20

06

20

10

20

14

20

18

20

22

20

26

20

30

20

34

20

38

20

42

20

46

20

50

2.4%/ year Double 2010 Production

same as past Already a challenge

1.6%/year FAO target

100 million tons shortage 300 million tons shortage

It is not too late to make a BIG difference

Countries that have released Mexican semi-dwarf wheat varieties or lines derived from crosses with Mexican

parental lines

Direct release Derived from crosses with Mexican wheats

January-April average min. temperature C°

7.58.08.59.09.510.010.511.011.5

Wh

eat

yie

ld Y

aq

ui V

alley (

To

n/H

a)

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

2010 2011

20062007

2002

2008

2000

2004

2005

2003

2001

2012

2009

2013y= 11.55 - 0.65X

r2=0.75

Relationship between mean wheat grain yield in the Yaqui Valley, Sonora, Mexico, and minimum temperature from January to April (1979-2013)

20C increase = 1400 kg’ha lower yield

Average agronomic performance of 5 best lines derived from “yield potential crosses” compared to mean of 5 checks. 2nd WYCYT 2013: unpublished

Yield kg/ha Biomass HI

5 Best YP lines 7620 1716 0.45

Mean 5 checks 7250 1572 0.46

% 5.2 9.1 -3.2

Crossing

Shuttle breeding in Mexico, two crops per year

Evaluation in Mexico and hot spot sites worldwide

Distribution of improved germplasm through IWIN

Collection and interpretation of

multi-location data

Shuttle Breeding / Speed

Data collected worldwide, used in centralized program

Genotypes Sites Data Points / Observations

Yield Trials 16,560 28,800 11,690,400

Observation Nurseries 53,805 29,120 16,283,850

Total 70,365 57,920 27,974,250

Pedigrees 548,443

International Nursery Statistics since 1964*

*Including Turkey/CIMMYT/ICARDA winter wheat

Countries that have requested CIMMYT international nurseries

since 1967

International Wheat Improvement Network

Co-operator Award

All cooperators that return data will be entered into a raffle. The two winners will be invited to visit CIMMYT’s Wheat Program!

International Nursery Award

Wide Adaptation and Global Climate Change Yield, rust resistance, heat and drought tolerance enduse quality;

the package to cope with global climate change

Countries that have released the same line or sister lines

Breeding wheat germplasm with increased yield potential, biotic and abiotic stress tolerance, and end-use quality

Njoro, Kenya Stem rust (Ug99 group), Yellow rust

Shuttle (Speed) and International testing

Comparison of grain yield performance of 602 bread wheat entries

retained for international distribution in 2014 when selected under

Mexico shuttle and Mexico-Kenya shuttle breeding schemes

Data source: Cd. Obregon 2012/13; yield trials under irrigated conditions on flat and

bed planting systems

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

80-84 85-89 90-94 95-99 100-104 105-109 110-114 115-119

No

. o

f e

ntr

ies

(%

)

Grain yield (% Roelfs)

Mexico shuttle (mean 101%)

Mexico-Kenya Shuttle (mean 101%)

WW Heat Drought

Rusts

Yield

Heat

Drought

YR, LR

FHS, Sep

YR Blast

Multiple Disease

Resistance

Heat

Drought

H-Fly

LR-DW

Yield

Ug 99

Rust

Septoria

Sept DW

Yield

Yield

Heat Dry

Heat Humid

Drought)

FHS

Yield

Heat

Global phenotyping platform network for Wheat Improvement targeted at

Less-developed Country Priority Traits

Operating costs from 500 K – 1 M + / year / Platform

Precision phenotyping, early access by NARS breeders to elite germplasm

The world collection was estimated by Konopka & Valkoun, ICARDA

Source: M. Kishii, CIMMYT

Use of wheat wild relatives in world collections for wheat improvement

Genome CIMMYT World No. Utilized % used

Triticum dicoccum AABB 779 ?? 24 3

Triticum dicoccoides AABB 880 1390 31 2

Triticum timopheevii AAGG 280 640 2 0

Triticum

monococcum AA 880 1520 120 8

Triticum urartu AA 392 516 21 4

Aegilops speltoides (~BB) SS 140 540 34 6

Aegilops bicornis (~BB) SbSb 14 28 0 0

Aegilops longissima (~BB) SlSl 10 59 2 3

Aegilops tauschii DD 400~600 1144 400 35

Triticale: Norman Borlaug’s unfinished business?

Country of origin for wheat trainees attending the CIMMYT wheat improvement course 1963 – 2014

Countries Total

participants

Female

Participants

1968-05 76 784 73

2006-14 30 252 62

We have the means, we have the capacity to eliminate hunger from the face of this earth. We

need only the will.

John F. Kennedy, 1961

Dr. Borlaug’s last words were: “Take it to the farmers,” when he talked to Art Klatt and Bill Raun about the Nitrogen-

sensor technology. I think no other words could summarize

better what Dr. Borlaug stood for.

Farmers, poor farmers and their families were always in the

center of his thinking.

The Ultimate Legacy: Take it to the Farmers

This was, is, and will remain the ultimate goal

of CIMMYT. If we fail in this aspect, we fail in

everything we do and we would not pay the

tribute to Norman Borlaug he deserves.

WEEAT WHEAT