BORAL STOCK MARKET REPORT

BORAL STOCK MARKET REPORT 13th of November to 8th of December. 2017

Produced By Group 1:Andy ChiangBrad ButlerCarly CulpinNilen Fernando

Sponsored By:SRE170 Construction Finance

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The report recorded Boral’s daily shares and the Australian All Ordinaries Index between the period of 13th of Novemeber to 8th December, and further analysed and discussed signficate events happened during this period. This report also includes predictions for 2018, in relations to Boral's share price and any activities in the Australian Construction Industry.

Deakin University SRE170 Construction Finance

Boral Stock Martet Report - 13th of Novemeber to 8th of December

Prouduce by Group 1Trimester 3, 2017

Written By: 214451296216100498

Andy ChiangBrad Butler

Carly CulpinNilen Fernando

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

TABLE OF CONTENTS

01 INTRODUCTION1.1 BORAL

02 STOCK MARKET OBSERVATION2.1 BORAL’S SHARE PRICE2.2 ALL ORDINARIES INDEX (XAO)2.3 OVERALL GRAPH

03 BUSINESS EVENTS3.1 WEEK 1 (13/11 - 19/11)3.2 WEEK 2 (20/11 -26/11)3.3 WEEK 3 (27/11 - 03/12)3.4 WEEK 4 (04/12 - 10/12)

04 YEAR 2018 PREDICTIONS4.1 SHARE PRICE4.2 AUSTRALIAN CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY

05 CONCLUSION

06 REFERENCE

07 APPENDIX7.1 APPENDIX A - BUSINESS EVENTS7.2 APPENDIX B - YEAR 2018 PREDICTIONS7.3 APPENDIX C - GROUP 1 MEETING LOGS7.4 APPENDIX D - GROUP 1 PEER REVIEW

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INTRODUCTION

BORAL

The purpose of this report is to collect and critically analyse financial and economic data to understand the operation of the Australian stock market and economy. Secondly, to observed the changes occurring in the Australian economy and to establish links between those changes and the performance of the construction industry. To fully understand this, the report observed and analysed a well-known publicly listed industrial company, Boral. The report focused on Boral’s daily shares and the Australian All Ordinaries Index, as an indication on Boral’s overall performance within the period from the 13th of November to 4th of December 2017. These data were recorded daily during this period, along with any events that made an impacted to Boral’s share price or the Australian economy. These recorded data were then analysed and discussed in this report. Furthermore, the report concludes with predictions for Boral’s performance and the overall Australian economy after the 4th of December 2017 till the end of 2017/2018 Financial Year.

01

1.1Boral Australia boasts the title of the largest integrated construction materials and building products manufacturer and supplier over an extensive range of construction and building markets. The renowned multinational organisation operates in three sections: Boral Australia, USG Boral and Boral North America, MarketLine (2017, p. 4). The extensive list of products Boral provide includes;

>> Cement>> Aggregates>> Concrete>> Bricks>> Masonry Products>> Roofing>> Timber

With a widespread network of asphalt, concrete and manufacturing sites throughout Australia, Boral’s leading position is supported by approximately 1 billion tonnes of quarry reserves advantageously situated close to significant markets ‘Build Something Great’ (Boral Ltd 2017). Recognising that sustainability is essential to their forthcoming success and global future, Boral has the aptitude to ‘Build Something Great’ ‘ (Boral Ltd 2017). This means providing a diverse, rewarding and safe workplace for their staff, taking a socially accountable method to how they operate and lastly, minimising their impact on the environment. Central to Boral’s vision of ‘delivering performance excellence and sustainable growth’ is delivering a world-class safety performance and developing a reduced resource and energy intensive-product for their clients ‘Build Something Great’ (Boral Ltd 2017).Boral’s recent projects include ‘Projects’ (Boral Ltd 2017);

Shepparton Law Courts, VictoriaBuilding and work in conjunction with Victorian Government.

Tonkin & Leach Highways, PerthUpgrades to the Tonkin and Leach Highways.

Sydney AirportRe-Sheeting main and cross runways.

Gateway Bridge, BrisbaneDuplication of the Gateway Bridge.

Bolte Bridge, Melbourne.Resurfacing of the Bolte Bridge.

Source: XXX Source: XXX Source: XXX

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STOCK MARKET OBSERVATION

This section of the report recorded Boral’s share price and Australian All Ordinaies Index from Monday, 13 November to Friday 8 December, 2017. These collected data were then used to produced a graph showing the two varibles using two y axes with different scales.

02

2.1

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BORAL’S SHARE PRICE




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Monday

7.50

7.54

13th

7.53

7.45

+ 0.03

0.092,037,289

Week 1 – 13th of November to 17th of November (2017)

Open

High

Close

Low

Difference

DifferenceVolume

7.51

7.57

Average

7.52

7.45

+ 0.01

0.122,414.109

Tuesday

7.50

7.53

14th

7.47

7.40

- 0.03

0.132,316,627

Wednesday

7.45

7.59

15th

7.56

7.45

+ 0.11

0.144,399,004

Thursday

7.57

7.57

16th

7.47

7.43

- 0.10

0.141,829,994

Friday

7.54

7.62

17th

7.58

7.53

+ 0.04

0.091,487,630

Monday

Monday

7.53

7.53

7.60

7.62

20th

27th

7.57

7.53

7.44

7.51

+ 0.04

0

0.16

0.11

2,783,068

3,596,544


Week 3 – 27th of November to 1st of December (2017)

Open

Open

High

High

Close

Close

Low

Low

Difference

Difference

Difference

Difference

Volume

Volume

7.67

7.56

7.72

7.63

Average

Average

7.66

7.56

7.57

7.53

- 0.01

0

0.15

0.11

2,894,013

4,572,260

Tuesday

Tuesday

7.61

7.51

7.71

7.59

21st

28th

7.70

7.56

7.53

7.50

+ 0.09

+ 0.05

0.18

0.09

3,395,541

3,382,584

Wednesday

Wednesday

7.72

7.62

7.79

7.68

22nd

29th

7.75

7.59

7.66

7.55

+ 0.03

- 0.03

0.13

0.13

2,870,611

4.707,383

Thursday

Thursday

7.79

7.55

7.80

7.60

23rd

30th

7.74

7.52

7.70

7.49

- 0.05

-0.03

0.10

0.11

2,452,328

7,886,113

Friday

Friday

7.70

7.60

7.70

7.68

24th

01st

7.54

7.60

7.51

7.59

- 0.16

0

0.19

0.09

2,968,517

3,288,677

Below is the table of Boral’s daily share price from 13th of November to the 8th of december, 2017.

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2.2 ALL ORDINARIES INDEX (XAO)




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Monday

7.63

7.78

04th

7.68

7.63

+ 0.05

0.154,022,717

Week 4 – 4th of December to 8th of December (2017)

Open

High

Close

Low

Difference

DifferenceVolume

7.70

7.78

Average

7.74

7.65

+ 0.02

0.134,272,767

Tuesday

7.71

7.75

05th

7.70

7.65

- 0.01

0.106,074,043

Wednesday

7.69

7.71

06th

7.62

7.57

- 0.07

0.145,407,428

Thursday

7.69

7.70

07th

7.72

7.63

+ 0.03

0.072,872,896

Friday

7.76

7.96

08th

7.85

7.75

+ 0.09

0.212,986,751

Monday

6104.30

6105.00

13th

6097.20

6088.00

- 7.10

17.00632.90M


Open

High

Close

Low

Difference

DifferenceVolume

6057.20

6068.48

Average

6044.00

6031.10

- 13.20

36.20746.98M

Tuesday

6097.20

6097.20

14th

6048.70

6037.30

- 48.50

59.90830.52M

Wednesday

6048.70

6048.70

15th

6012.30

6012.30

- 36.40

36.40878.44M

Thursday

6012.30

6033.00

16th

6023.50

5994.40

+ 11.20

29.10770.04M

Friday

6023.50

6058.50

17th

6038.30

6023.50

+ 14.80

38.60623.01M

Monday

Monday

6038.30

6063.10

6038.30

6089.90

20th

27th

6028.00

6070.40

6006.30

6060.30

- 10.30

+ 7.30

32.00

29.60

629.75M

615.61M


Week 3 – 27th of November to 1st of December (2017)

Open

Open

High

High

Close

Close

Low

Low

Difference

Difference

Difference

Difference

Volume

Volume

6049.14

6070.7

6061.08

6096.30

Average

Average

6054.08

6073.18

6032.90

6056.44

+ 4.94

- 2.48

28.18

39.86

718.58M

828.15M

Tuesday

Tuesday

6028.00

6070.40

6048.80

6085.90

21st

28th

6044.20

6066.70

6026.50

6058.80

+ 16.20

- 3.70

22.30

27.10

677.17M

1.03B

Wednesday

Wednesday

6044.20

6066.70

6078.10

6113.70

22nd

29th

6067.60

6096.10

6044.20

6066.70

+ 23.40

+ 29.40

33.90

47.00

803.54M

762.10M

Thursday

Thursday

6067.60

6096.10

6072.60

6096.10

23rd

30th

6067.50

6057.20

6053.00

6039.20

- 0.10

- 38.90

0.10

56.90

912.21M

1.11B

Friday

Friday

6067.60

6057.20

6067.60

6095.90

24th

01st

6063.10

6075.50

6034.50

6057.20

- 4.50

+ 18.30

33.10

38.70

570.21M

623.04M

Below is the table of the All Orindaries Index from 13th of November to the 8th of december, 2017.

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2.3 OVERALL GRAPH




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Monday

6075.50

6087.10

04th

6070.60

6065.30

- 4.90

21.80772.72M

Week 4 – 4th of December to 8th of December (2017)

Open

High

Close

Low

Difference

DifferenceVolume

6058.82

6075.26

Average

6059.20

6042.92

- 0.38

32.34781.97M

Tuesday

6070.60

6070.60

05th

6057.30

6036.60

- 13.30

34.00851.11M

Wednesday

6057.30

6057.30

06th

6029.90

6023.50

- 27.40

33.80822.95M

Thursday

6029.90

6069.00

07th

6060.80

6028.40

+ 30.90

40.60771.69M

Friday

6060.80

6092.30

08th

6077.40

6060.80

+ 16.60

31.50691.38M

Below is the overall graph for Boral's share price and the All Ordinaries Index between 13th of November to 8th of Decemeber.

5960

5980

6000

6020

6040

6060

6080

6100

6120

7.2

7.3

7.4

7.5

7.6

7.7

7.8

7.9

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Boral Close Boral Open XAO Close XAO Open

Business Days

XAOBo

ral's

Shar

e Pric

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US INVESTOR CONFERENCE - 15TH OF NOVEMBER, 2017

THANKSGIVING - 24TH OF NOVEMBER, 2017

BUSINESS EVENTS

This section of the report identify significant business events, and then further discuss how these events may have influenced the Australian Stock Market or Boral.

03

3.1

3.2

Boral held an Investor Conference in New York on the 15th of November, 2017. It is assumed that the main focus of this conference was its existing US investors and as a means of promoting new investors in the Boral Group. Boral spans across 17 countries and according to Kane’s presentation generated A$5.6b Pro forma revenue in the financial year ended 30th June 2017. Including A$2.3b from Boral North America. (Boral Ltd 2017, p. 2) which makes up 41% of its total pro forma revenue. Therefore, this US Investor conference is a key event for the company and its growth which was partly complemented by its acquisition of the US based Headwaters Incorporated in November 2016 where Boral offered stockholders US$ 24.25 per share in cash representing a 21% premium to Headwaters’ closing stock price on 18th November 2016 (Businesswire 2016). Headwaters Incorporated, a leading fly ash marketer and building product manufacturer gives Boral broader exposure to large-scale markets, a balanced portfolio, better innovation and strong synergies ‘New York investor conference presentation’ (Boral Ltd 2017, p. 15).

Mike Kane, Chief Executive Officer & Managing Director of Boral conducted the presentation at the conference. Kane who was President of Boral USA from 2010 before taking over Boral in 2012 (Boral Ltd 2017, para. 2) is an American national who has extensive experience in the building and construction industry with 24 years in senior executive roles ranging across America, Europe and Asia. It is important for the promotion of Boral to US Investors to have an American face at the conference which further encourages growth and investments.

Kane’s presentation highlighted the following:

>> How important the North American division is for Boral contributing 41% to its total revenue last financial year. >> Headwaters Acquisition which expended Boral’s footprint in the fly ash sector and diversified exposures with new building products added to their ‘New York investor conference presentation’ (Boral Ltd 2017, p. 9) portfolio including composite roofing, PVC Trim and speciality Vinyl Siding.

>> USG Boral’s 50% owned joint ventures in high growth countries in Asia and the Middle East where growth is supported by product penetration opportunities ‘New York investor conference presentation’ (Boral Ltd 2017, p. 13). These include residential and commercial projects in growing metro cities in China and South-East Asia.

>> Technological Innovations including Next generation Sheetrock technology demanded by high energy cost, water scarce and high humidity markets in Asia. (Boral Ltd 2017).

>> Boral Australia’s predicted growth with upcoming projects like West Connex, West Gate Tunnel and the ongoing Pacific Highway upgrading ‘New York investor conference presentation’ (Boral Ltd 2017, p. 6) where Boral’s Cement, Quarries and Bitumen divisions would benefit greatly and in turn feed to its Concrete and Asphalt plants.

The 24th of November is Thanksgiving Day in America, and therefore Wall Street was closed. It was a quiet night in terms of trading, however the Europe and Asia market was still operating as usual. According to ABC news, both Europe and Asia stock market was not performing well on this day. This influenced Australian stock market, as it was shown in the graph and table, that this day the stock price has dropped a little.

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ROYAL BANKING COMMISSION - 30TH OF NOVEMBER, 20173.3On the 30th November 2017, Malcolm Turnbull and the Australian government announced, via media release (Prime Minister of Australia 2017, p. 1), that the banking and finance sector will be subject to a Royal Commission. A Royal Commission is; a public inquiry governed by an act of parliament. They can be called on any matter “connected with peace, order and good government of the commonwealth or public purpose or any power of the commonwealth” (ABC 2016, p. 1, para. 1). While the Turnbull government have spent years denying the need for a Royal Commission, the Big Four banks’ chairpersons and chief executives argued that such a measure would be in national interest, even though they had spent years campaigning against it. This subsequently resulted in a back flipping of Malcolm Turnbull and the inquiry has begun to build momentum (ABC News 2017, p. 1).

The Royal Banking Commission has been allocated 12 months to complete its inquiries, with a report to be released February 2019, and it will be defined by the inquiry’s Terms of Reference throughout (ABC News 2017, p. 1, para. 29). The terms of reference are publicly accessible, though The Financial Review was able to summarise it quite concisely by outlining the most important matters requiring inquiry (Financial Review 2017, p. 1). The original draft is a .pdf file and can be found at the bottom of the PM’s media release on the government run website (Prime Minister of Australia 2017, p. 1).

Although the government and banking sector have reached an agreement in the public’s best interest, there is a natural murmur of speculation from foreign investors and analysts all over the globe (Financial Review 2017, p. 1). A few have spoken out about the cost of the inquiry and the impact it might have on share prices globally (Financial Review 2017, p. 1). After reviewing all analyses by professionals, it is important to remember that the Australian banking sector is one of the strongest globally, but it is definitely not impervious to such a shake up. Citibank, Deutsch Bank, Macquarie and JPMorgan are just a few who had addressed their clients the day proceeding Turnbull’s media release (Financial Review 2017, p. 1). Most of their concerns relate to stocks already reflecting negatively in the light of this announcement, along with whether or not the cost of the inquiry will impact business plans already implemented (Financial Review 2017, p. 1).

While analysts have speculated this, it would seem that foreign investors are inclined to be cautious also. The three main points of concern, at an investor level, are Compliance Costs, the uncertainty between now and February 2019, and the possible financial penalties or other regulations that may harm bank profitability (Financial Review 2017, p. 1, para. 1-6). While everyone agrees that Australian consumers will benefit greatly from this Commission, the uncertainty of the future for investors and shareholders is already beginning to take effect with currency conversions expected to drop by -30% (analysts). Deltec Inter-national Group Chief Investment officer Atul Lele had written an email in response to The Financial Review asking how it would impact his Bahamas based company, showing that not everyone is fearful of the outcomes for Australian banking and finance sector. (Financial Review 2017, p. 1)

“As global macro investors, the Royal Commission is not impacting our decision making as much as the multitude of other far more important issues for Australian Banks: the bad debt cycle, net interest margins, credit growth, access to offshore funding markets - and the underlying drivers of all of these,” Atul Lee, Deltec International (Financial Review 2017, p. 1).

The Royal Banking Commission is a necessary evil to restore faith in consumers toward the banking and finance sector, as well as allow a more transparent view for the public. There are concerns over the costs to companies such as the “big four” - Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA), National Australia Bank (NAB), Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) and Westpac Banking Corporation (WBC), but the concerns are outweighed by the security it will offer this industry in conjunction with less people harbouring negative feelings about the banks history of misconduct. There may only be a few bad apples in the bunch, but those few have tarnished any faith the public had in the industry. The Royal Banking Commission will resolve a lot of these issues, hopefully with minimal impact.

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BORAL’S SHARE PRICE PREDICTIONS

With the continuing boom of commercial and infrastructure development in the east coast of Australia, we can expect share prices exposed to construction activity to keep increasing. This is all providing an offset for residential projects that are predicted to decline, yet play a moderate role, in the industry due to oversupply and reduction in price growth of multi-level apartments (AIGroup & Australian Constructors Association 2017, para. 1).

Following 2016’s sharp decline in the mining related construction sector, reflected by Boral’s closing share price of $5.030 in November 2016 and predicted growth of transport and telecommunications infrastructure, would have a positive effect on the share prices of Boral (Boral Limited 2017). Some of the predicted growth are NBN-related projects, as well as bridge and rail networks. This is in conjunction with Boral’s company projects, such as; WestConnex, NorthConnex, CityLink – Tullamarine Widening, and Bruce/Pacific highway upgrades. These are all ongoing and increasing in scale through to 2020 and funded by the public sector (Boral Limited 2017, para. 6).

A survey conducted by AIG Australian Constructors Association shows the total value of major project work is predicted to rise 6.4% in 2018. This is due to greater amounts of publicly funded infrastructure projects increasing revenue for construction companies, such as Boral (Trading Economics 2017). Construction work completed in Australia spiked 15.7% in September’s quarter of 2017, after a previous shock rise of 9.8% in the three months before, initially beating a -2.1% decline (Trading Economics 2017). This was the fastest increase of construction output that were supported by a rise in engineering projects by 33%. Looking at 2017, leading up to the third quarter, construction work increased by 30.1% as shown by Boral’s share price which reflects a similar pattern. Australian Construction output reached an all-time high of 15.7% during this quarter where Boral’s shares closed at AU$6.770 on 29/09/2017, as opposed to the record low of -18.9% in 2000 in the same quarter where Boral’s share price closed at AU$1.656 on 31/09/2000.

Comparing the following graphs, we can see how the aforementioned patterns are complemented in Fig 1. Fig 2. shows that, while Boral’s share prices show random yet minor fluctuations, it follows an identical trajectory. This means that the prediction segment beyond Dec 2017 from Fig. 1 could well be the path the share prices would take (InvestSmart 2017).

Australian Construction Output (%)

Figure 1 SOURCE: TradingEconomics.com : Australian Bureau of Statistics

.

YEAR 2018 PREDICTIONS

The section of the report forcused on the predictions with reasons for the remainder of 2018 for Boral’s share price and any other activities in the Australian Construction industry.

04

4.1

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AUSTRALIAN CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY

Boral Stock Price (AUD)

Figure 2 SOURCE: InvestSmart.com.au

In conclusion, this shows that Boral Ltd’s share prices are directly related to how the Australian construction output performs, ongoing and upcoming projects and investments from both private and public funds. As of 8/12/2017 Boral closed at a strong AU$7.850 per share which suggests that it would keep increasing in 2018 with only minor and random dips which might not be significant.

4.2‘Boral Limited - Premium Company Report Australia’ reports that “Boral Limited is a public company that is ranked number 86 out of the top 2000 com-panies in Australia”. With a total of 11499 employees, including all subsidiaries under its control, in 2017. During the same period, Boral had generated $4,308,000,000AUD in total revenue (made up of sales and ‘other’) (IBIS World 2017). With the second half of 2016 showing a 9% rise in underlying profits over the previous half of 2016, it is safe to assume that Boral will continue its upward movement in the global construction industry over 2018; especially considering the Headquarters acquisition was finalised in May 2017 (Boral LTD 2017, pg. 1, para 7-16). Boral’s acquisition of Headwaters, a US-based building products manufacturer, was a $3.5 million deal. “While the acquisition is significant in scale, we have maintained a disciplined approach to reviewing growth opportunities in the USA” - Boral Chairman, Brian Clark

As the synergies of the FY17 acquisition approach their conclusion, Boral will grow in FY18 with a strong presence in the US (FNArena 2017, pg. 1, para 1). Citi analysts have made mention that Australia is about to cycle tougher comparables, raising questions on Boral’s earnings in outer years (FNArena 2017, pg. 1, para 6). But it would seem others are more optimistic with the anticipation of a national infrastructure boom that will likely tighten the market in Boral’s favour (FNArena 2017, pg. 1, para 8-12). “Underlying operating earnings (EBIT) increased 15.6%, which brokers concede was a strong performance.” - FNArena, Eva Brocklehurst

With the anticipated infrastructure boom, and Boral being Australia’s leading construction materials and building supplier, these numbers can only continue to increase (Bayside Group 2017). Most of their past and future projects include national infrastructure development, such as;

>> Adelaide Airport – Adelaide, SA >> Bolte Bridge Resurfacing – Melbourne, VIC >> North Connex – Sydney, NSW>> Gateway Bridge Upgrade – Brisbane, QLD >> Eastlink – Melbourne, VIC >> Peninsula Link - Melbourne, VIC>> Gold Coast Rapid Transit Network – Gold Coast, QLD >> Regional Rail Link - Melbourne, VIC >> Sea Cliff Bridge – Sydney, NSW (Boral LTD 2017)

This is bolstered by Boral’s breakthrough with the CFMEU battle over building codes, reaching “…a deal to scrap banned workplace conditions under the Turnbull government’s new building code…” ‘Breakthrough in Boral battle with CFMEU over building code’ (Financial Review 2017, pg.1, para. 1)

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CONCLUSION

Though it is difficult to assume a company’s position in the industry over the next year, it is accurate to predict that the current ‘up’ trend of Boral’s growth can be expected to continue across the board (FNArena 2017, pg. 1, para 3).

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REFERENCE

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2017, Share Price Chart, Boral Limited, retrieved 11 December 2017, <https://www.boral.com/share-price-graph>

2017, New york Investor Conference Presentation, Boral Limited, retrieved 11 December 2017, <https://www.boral.com/>

2017, Australian Construction Output, Trading Economics, retrieved 11 December 2017, <https://tradingeconomics.com/australia/construction-output> 'Stock Market Prediction' 2017, Wikipedia, 15 September, retrieved 6 December 2017, <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stock_market_prediction>

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Qiu M. & Song Y. 2016, Predicting the Direction of Stock Market Index Movement Using an Optimized Artificial Neural Network Model, PLOS, retrieved 6 December 2017, <Qiu M, Song Y (2016) Predicting the Direction of Stock Market Index Movement Using an Optimized Artificial Neural Network Model. PLoS ONE 11(5): e0155133. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0155133>

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Sincere M. 2011, Use these market indicators to predict stock moves, Market Watch, retrieved 6 December 2017, <https://www.marketwatch.com/story/use-these-market-indicators-to-predict-stock-moves-2011-02-21>

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2016, Headwaters Incorporated Enters into Definitive Merger Agreement to Be Acquired by Boral Limited, Businesswire, retrieved 19 November 2017, <http://businesswire.com>

2017, Mike Kane Chief Executive Officer & Managing Director, Boral Ltd, retrieved 19 November 2017, <https://www.boral.com/person/mike-kane>

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BORAL STOCK MARKET REPORT

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