Booosting 20 jaar vooruit!_ jubileum oktober 2008_ Wim SInke
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Transcript of Booosting 20 jaar vooruit!_ jubileum oktober 2008_ Wim SInke
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From consumer to producerFrom consumer to producerSolar energy innovations in the built environmentSolar energy innovations in the built environment
Wim C. SinkeECN Solar Energy, Utrecht University & EU PV Technology Platform
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Or:Or:
7 myths about solar energy7 myths about solar energy
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3 BOOOSTING, 10 October 2008
The many faces of (photovoltaic) solar energy
solar cell electricity
heat
sunlight
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4 BOOOSTING, 10 October 2008
Myth 1
Solar energy is only for niches
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5 BOOOSTING, 10 October 2008
Fact is:
Solar energy has practically unlimited potential and is indispensable for a sustainable energy future
(world, EU & NL)
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6 BOOOSTING, 10 October 2008
oil
coal
gas
nuclear power
hydroelectricity
biomass (traditional)
biomass (advanced)
solar power (photovoltaics (PV) &
solar thermal generation (CSP)
solar thermal (heat only)
other renewables
geothermal
wind energy
Source: German Advisory Council on Global Change, 2003, www.wbgu.de (example scenario)
year
2000 2020 2040
200
600
1000
1400
2100
EJ/a
Solar energy in the energy transition
PV & CSPPV & CSP
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7 BOOOSTING, 10 October 2008
2500 TWh2500 TWh
~1% of primary energy~1% of primary energy
1500 ~ 2000 GWp1500 ~ 2000 GWp
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8 BOOOSTING, 10 October 2008
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9 BOOOSTING, 10 October 2008
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10 BOOOSTING, 10 October 2008
Myth 2
Solar energy is only sunbelt countries
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11 BOOOSTING, 10 October 2008
Fact is:
Solar energy is very evenly distributed compared to all other renewables
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12 BOOOSTING, 10 October 2008
Solar resource
solar irradiation in kWh/m2.day(source: ABB, 1998)
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13 BOOOSTING, 10 October 2008
Myth 3
Solar energy will never become competitive
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14 BOOOSTING, 10 October 2008
Fact is:
Solar energy is competitive with peak power today and will reach grid parity
in all of Europe within 10 years
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15 BOOOSTING, 10 October 2008
Grid parity in Europe – 2007(lines to guide the eye)
irradiation PV generation(kWh/m2·yr) cost (€/kWh)
600 0.83
1000 0.50
1400 0.36
1800 0.28
insolation map: Šúri M., Huld T.A., Dunlop E.D. Ossenbrink H.A., 2007. Potential of solar electricity generation in the European Union member states and candidate countries. Solar Energy (in press), http://re.jrc.ec.europa.eu/pvgis/
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16 BOOOSTING, 10 October 2008
Grid parity in Europe – 2010 (lines to guide the eye)
irradiation PV generation(kWh/m2·yr) cost (€/kWh)
600 0.50
1000 0.30
1400 0.21
1800 0.17
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17 BOOOSTING, 10 October 2008
Grid parity in Europe – 2015 (lines to guide the eye)
irradiation PV generation(kWh/m2·yr) cost (€/kWh)
600 0.42
1000 0.25
1400 0.18
1800 0.14
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18 BOOOSTING, 10 October 2008
Grid parity in Europe – 2020 (lines to guide the eye)
irradiation PV generation(kWh/m2·yr) cost (€/kWh)
600 0.33
1000 0.20
1400 0.14
1800 0.11
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19 BOOOSTING, 10 October 2008
Grid parity in Europe – 2030 (lines to guide the eye)
irradiation PV generation(kWh/m2·yr) cost (€/kWh)
600 0.17
1000 0.10
1400 0.07
1800 0.06
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20 BOOOSTING, 10 October 2008
Fingerprints of PV technology
0.250.512>10 Typical system energy pay-back time Southern Europe (yrs)
up to 60%up to 40%Up to 30%up to 25%(∼10%)Typical commercial concentrator module efficiencies
up to 40%up to 25%Up to 20%up to 15%up to 8%Typical commercial flat-plate module efficiencies (total area)
0.030.06(competitive with
wholesale electricity)
0.15 / 0.12(competitive with retail electricity)
0.30>2Typical electricity generation costs S Europe (2007 €/kWh)
0.512.5 / 2.05
(range 4~8)
>30Typical turn-key system price(2007 €/Wp, excl. VAT)
Long term potential
20302015 / 2020Today1980
Rounded figures
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21 BOOOSTING, 10 October 2008
Fingerprints of PV technology
0.250.512>10 Typical system energy pay-back time Southern Europe (yrs)
up to 60%up to 40%Up to 30%up to 25%(∼10%)Typical commercial concentrator module efficiencies
up to 40%up to 25%Up to 20%up to 15%up to 8%Typical commercial flat-plate module efficiencies (total area)
0.030.06(competitive with
wholesale electricity)
0.15 / 0.12(competitive with retail electricity)
0.30>2Typical electricity generation costs S Europe (2007 €/kWh)
0.512.5 / 2.05
(range 4~8)
>30Typical turn-key system price(2007 €/Wp, excl. VAT)
Long term potential
20302015 / 2020Today1980
Rounded figures
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22 BOOOSTING, 10 October 2008
Myth 4
Solar energy is a pain in the neck forurban planners and architects
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23 BOOOSTING, 10 October 2008
Fact is:
Solar energy can give added value(s) to buildings and is on its way to become a
versatile building element
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24 BOOOSTING, 10 October 2008
Solar resource NL: freedom in design for “sun-friendly” urban planning and architecture
Source: Holland Solar
orientation and tilt dependenceof yearly irradiance (NL)
< 10% loss
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25 BOOOSTING, 10 October 2008
Solar resource NL: freedom in design for “sun-friendly” urban planning and architecture
Source: Holland Solar
orientation and tilt dependenceof yearly irradiance (NL)
< 20% loss
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26 BOOOSTING, 10 October 2008Mayersloot (architect Tjerk Reijenga)
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27 BOOOSTING, 10 October 2008City of the Sun, courtesy: Municipality of Heerhugowaard
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28 BOOOSTING, 10 October 2008 DerbisolarWürth Solar
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29 BOOOSTING, 10 October 2008Office building ECN (architect Tjerk Reijenga)
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30 BOOOSTING, 10 October 2008 Würth Solar
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31 BOOOSTING, 10 October 2008
Ohta city, Japan
Photo courtesy SunConnex
Berlin, DE
Sunderland, UK
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32 BOOOSTING, 10 October 2008
United Solar
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33 BOOOSTING, 10 October 2008
Myth 5
Solar energy is intermittent and unsuitable to build a reliable electricity supply
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34 BOOOSTING, 10 October 2008
Fact is:
Solar energy in combination with other renewables, storage and a smart grid
can do the job
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35 BOOOSTING, 10 October 2008
Ken Zweibel, James Masonand Vasilis Fthenakis
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36 BOOOSTING, 10 October 2008
Europe - Middle East & North Africa (EU-MENA) grid
Source: DLR (DE) / Stichting GEZEN (NL)
Press release 26 Nov 2007:
Clean Power from Deserts for Europe, the Middle East and North Africa
Prince Hassan bin Talal of Jordan presents White Paper to EU Parliament
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37 BOOOSTING, 10 October 2008
PV grid integration
Source: M. Braun, ISET, DE
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38 BOOOSTING, 10 October 2008
Myth 6
Solar energy is not sustainable
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39 BOOOSTING, 10 October 2008
Fact is:
The system energy pay-back time in NL is only 3 years now and will be reduced to <1 yr, on a technical lifetime of 25~40 yrs
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40 BOOOSTING, 10 October 2008
Energy pay-back time (NL):status and near-future development
Alsema, de Wild-Scholten and Fthenakis, Proc. EUPVSEC21 (2006)
0,00
0,50
1,00
1,50
2,00
2,50
3,00
3,50
4,00
ribbon multi mono ribbon multi mono
Ye
ar BoS
Frame
Laminate
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41 BOOOSTING, 10 October 2008
Myth 7
Solar energy is nice and may become important, but it’s better to wait a little
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42 BOOOSTING, 10 October 2008
Facts are:
The heat is on now
We have no time to lose
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43 BOOOSTING, 10 October 2008
Global cell production 1997-2007 (in MWp)
Source: Photon,April 2008
• yearly growth of 30-70% in past 10 years (avg >40%/a)• volume 2007 of 4.3 GWp (35-40 km2)• turnover 2007 estimated at 15 G€ (modules + BoS)
China, Taiwan & RoW
Japan
Total
Europe
USA
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44 BOOOSTING, 10 October 2008
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
inst
alle
d c
apac
ity
(MW
p)
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
year
consumer products
off-grid rural
off-grid commercial & other
grid-connected residential
grid-connected central
Installed power per application area
Source: Paul Maycock & Travis Bradford,Renewable Energy World (July/Aug 2007)
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45 BOOOSTING, 10 October 2008
The Solar Europe Initiative within the SET-Plan Valencia 3rd Sept 2008 5th European PV Industry Forum
3. Defining a new Industry Objective
Percentage PV of EU electricity generation in 2020
12%
Percentage PV of newly installed and replaced plants until 25%
6%
15%
420 TWh
350 GWp1)
Lower Limit Upper Limit
40 %
1) Assumes 1,200 TWh p.a. per GWp2) Based on installed based 2007: 4,5 GWp
2020 Electricity Generation from PV:
2020 PV Installed Base:
CAGR of PV Installed Base: 2)
210 TWh
33%
175 GWp1)
PROPOSED TARGET
Solar Europe In
itiativ
e
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46 BOOOSTING, 10 October 2008
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