Edward Cornish, Futuring: The Exploration of the Future (Bethseda: World Future Society, 2005).

Futuring: A Book Review

By

Chester Elijah Branch

Overview

Cornish, in his book Futuring, explains that creating scenarios can be beneficial. Scenarios can encourage desirable action by showing people that they are headed for an undesirable future unless they change their behavior. By mining trends we find “a special …bridge from the past to the future.” i

Leaders working toward the future have become explorers. He lists 5 lessons for explorers: 1) Prepare for what you will face in the future.2) Anticipate future needs.3) Use poor information when necessary.4) Expect the unexpected. 5) Think long term as well as short-term. 

The Era of Radical Change

Cornish argues that the most important thing happening today is not reported in newspaper headlines or television broadcasts, yet it is far more important than most of what is reported. ii This mega-event is the global transformation of human life, and it affects everybody everywhere.

Some would contest this assertion and say these things are reported. Some would say the future is now for the 1% and future for the 99%. How distant is constantly open for speculation.

Cornish mentions how radical change can reshape innovation. Max Ways, editor of Fortune Magazine, announced the ‘era of radical change’ back in the late 50s and early 60s.iii This was the same time the U.S. began investing in computer programming like S.A.G.E. and DEC.

The Workforce

Radical change reshapes the work force in several ways. Jobs have become increasingly temporary and part-time. Companies do outsource to save money. But that is no longer the main reason. The main reason is to gain innovation.iv

In the late 70s Richard B. Fuller predicted a day when the dollar quotient would lose its value and knowledge would become the new economy.v In the late 80s Zuboff echoed these sentiments, arguing that work and learning would become the one and the same. vi Then in the late 90svii and early 2000s collective intelligence became the company’s “most valuable asset.” viii

Four Great Techno Revolutions

According to Cornish there are “three great technological revolutions, each of which began with a key discovery that acted as a catalyst for massive technological, economic, and social change: the Agricultural Revolution, the Industrial Revolution, and the recent Cybernetic Revolution.”ix Biotechnology promises to be the “fourth technological revolution.”x

Bio Tech

He predicts that biotechnology will make revolutionary changes that “could be even more extraordinary than those wrought by the computer.”xi With genetic engineering has begun redesigning plants and animals.  However, “the most important applications are likely to like in biotechnology’s potential for enhancing the physical, mental, and emotional capabilities of humans themselves.”xii

i Edward Cornish, Futuring: The Exploration of the Future (Bethseda: World Future Society, 2005), 37.

ii Edward Cornish, Futuring: The Exploration of the Future (Bethseda: World Future Society, 2005), 9.

iii Edward Cornish, Futuring: The Exploration of the Future (Bethseda: World Future Society, 2005), 11-12

iv Ibid, 46-47.

v Richard B. Fuller, Critical Path (New York: St. Martin’s Press, 1981), 200 – 202.

vi Shoshana Zuboff, In the Age of the Smart Machine (New York: Basic Books, 1988), 395.

vii T. A. Stewart, Intellectual Capital (London: Nicholas Brealey, 1997), 44

viii Michael J. Marquardt; Nancy O. Berger, Global Leaders for the 21st Century (Albany: SUNY Press, 2000), 11.

ix Edward Cornish, Futuring: The Exploration of the Future (Bethseda: World Future Society, 2005), 15.

x Edward Cornish, Futuring: The Exploration of the Future (Bethseda: World Future Society, 2005), 24.

xi Edward Cornish, Futuring: The Exploration of the Future (Bethseda: World Future Society, 2005), 19.

xii Edward Cornish, Futuring: The Exploration of the Future (Bethseda: World Future Society, 2005), 19.

We live in a day and age where the patient could know more about his or her particular condition than the doctor. The “doctors need knowledge about different conditions and see streams of patients whose faces are scarcely remembered from one visit to the next… educated persistent, Internet –savvy patients may have read more recent research regarding their specific ailments.”xiii

For the longest time, hospitals have been looked at as a necessary evil, like jails. Several strategic thinkers within this organization have decided to work with the patients to customize ‘do it yourself’ technology that can allow their customers to use home-care instead of the obligatory hospital visits that may reveal nothing and become a drain on your pocketbook.

According to Lowell Levin 85-90 percent of all medical care is provided by ordinary people - not doctors. This jump took place from 1965 to the late 1990s. The FDA describes examples like a toothbrush with a bio-chip that checks your blood sugar and bacteria levels while you’re brushing or a smart T-shirt that can monitor your vital signs.

Several people, like Dr. Aubrey de Grey, have set up foundations that intend to reverse the aging process in our lifetime. This could allow the human body to live for thousands of years.xiv He likens it to how auto doctors can make vintage cars just as functional as a 2012 model car. This could lead to issues of over population.xv

Expect the unexpected

When it comes to future scanning, it’s good to expect the unexpected.

“Understanding what’s happening in the world today by means of current trends gets us to the threshold of the future but does not quite get us over it. For that purpose we must use scenarios – conjectures about what might happen in the future.”xvi

xiii Alvin Toffler; Hiedi Toffler, Revolutionary Wealth (), .

xiv Aubrey D N J De Grey; Micheal Rae, Ending Age (New York: St. Martin’s Griffin, 2008).

xv Edward Cornish, Futuring: The Exploration of the Future (Bethseda: World Future Society, 2005), 33.

“The most surprising thing that could happen in the future would be if there were no surprises, because the future has surprised us so often in the past. Many of the surprises to come will be fleeting, with little lasting impact. Others will be really startling and will have very important consequences.” xvii

Endnotes

xvi Edward Cornish, Futuring: The Exploration of the Future (Bethseda: World Future Society, 2005), 93.

xvii Edward Cornish, Futuring: The Exploration of the Future (Bethseda: World Future Society, 2005), 108.