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Book Review: Britain Votes 2015 edited byAndrew Geddes and Jonathan Tonge

In the edited collection Britain Votes 2015, editors AndrewGeddes and Jonathan Tonge present essays analysing themain issues and outcomes of the 2015 UK General Election.Offering a concise and well­rounded account of an election oftenpromoted in the media as one of the most unpredictable of recenttimes, this book is recommended reading for students ofcontemporary British politics, writes Gordon Bannerman.

Britain Votes 2015. Andrew Geddes and Jonathan Tonge(eds). Oxford University Press. 2015.

Taking its place in the competitivefield of electoral studies, the HansardSociety/Oxford University Presscollaborative publication Britain Votes2015, co­edited by Andrew Geddesand Jonathan Yonge, features fifteenessays by leading scholarsbookended by an editorialintroduction and conclusion. Whileambitiously wide­ranging in itsexamination of all aspects of the

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electoral campaign, including political parties, party finance, themedia and the constituent parts of the United Kingdom, thebook’s core themes largely reflect the main issues and outcomesof the 2015 General Election.

In the months preceding the Election, most media organisationsand political experts promoted it as one of the most unpredictablein modern times. The political map of Britain was richly colour­coded in accordance with a more complex party configuration,and ‘Coalition Government’ and ‘Hung Parliament’ were oft­citedterms. It was therefore surprising when exit polls on election nightindicated a Conservative majority. The nature of that victory;Labour’s failure to increase its vote share, especially in England;the rise of the Scottish National Party (SNP); and the LiberalDemocrats’ disastrous losses: these are all, predictably, givenconsiderable prominence within the volume.

While acknowledging that elections are complex affairs, theeditors bluntly assert that there ‘is no need to over­complicateexplanations’ of the result (256), which they primarily attributefirstly to the belief among a large section of the electorate in theConservatives’ economic competence, and secondly to publicperceptions of Prime Ministerial authority and competence thatconsistently favoured David Cameron over Ed Miliband. As Baleand Webb compellingly argue, leadership evaluations may be agood indicator of party popularity and electoral success, acting‘as a heuristic simplification’ to guide voters when policy debatesbecome too complex to fully understand (51). Cameron certainlyproved adept at presenting a nuanced political identity to theelectorate, promoting liberalism in social policy withoutcompromising core Conservative values, whilst constantlyattacking Labour’s record on the economy, welfare andimmigration.

Indeed, the economic narratives of Labour over­spending andeconomic mismanagement and the necessity of deficit reductionwere central components of the Coalition Government andConservative campaign. The Emergency Budget of June 2010began the narrative of crisis, which was relentlessly fostered

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throughout the life of the Parliament. Labour’s response wasineffective, piecemeal, often incoherent and contradictory and italso failed to remove the association in the public mind betweenLabour and ‘tax and spend’ policies. The SNP’s anti­austeritymessage presented the Conservatives with the opportunity toreinforce core themes, with the promotion of a dual narrativepowerfully articulated positively in terms of competent economicmanagement and strong leadership, and negatively in terms ofLabour’s economic incompetence and the danger of aLabour/SNP ‘Coalition of Chaos’ (257).

Image Credit: Polling Station, Camberwell, London (Wikipedia Public Domain)

The key drivers of debate and voting intention – identified as‘valence’ issues, where agreement exists as to desired ends –partly responded to traditional political configurations, with theConservatives leading on economic management and Labourmore trusted with the NHS. However, from the Coalition’s failureto restrict migrant numbers, The UK Independence Party (UKIP)secured a degree of ‘issue ownership’ over immigration andEurope. While potentially a development of long­termsignificance, the siloed nature of policy preferences appears tobe further evidence of political fragmentation. Despite this shift inopinion, which was not actually reflected in the composition of theParliament, many areas, notably Wales and Northern Ireland,saw little change in patterns of political loyalties and allegiances.

The more technical aspects of electoral analysis and patterns ofelectoral behaviour are subject to intensive scrutiny. The centralpsephological aspect was the efficient distribution of the

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Conservative vote, characterised by winning more seats withsmall majorities, while Labour wasted votes in constituencies wonby other parties. The imbalance in voter turn­out, with older andwealthier people more likely to vote, also favoured theConservatives. Other developments, notably the decliningnumber of marginal seats and the micro­targeting of voters –conducted particularly effectively by the Conservatives in keyLiberal Democrat­held seats – appear potentially far­reaching intheir future application.

It was not primarily the Liberal Democrats (‘the usual suspects’)who suffered from the imbalances of the first­past­the­postsystem against parties whose support is geographically widerather than deep. This time UKIP were unwilling recipients of thedemocratic deficit; with nearly four million votes they secured onlyone seat, whereas the SNP with approximately 1.5 million voteswon fifty­six seats. If these glaring anomalies are depressinglyfamiliar, patterns of electoral participation and influence identifysome surprising trends. Social media appears to have played asomewhat negligible role in campaigning terms, and all partieswere inconsistent in using it. Celebrity endorsements andinterventions were peripheral, and the impact of televisiondebates highly variable and perhaps short­lived. These valuableinsights supplement the statistical base of electoral analysis andprovide a commentary on the zeitgeist of modern Britain.

Projecting forward, a rather speculative concluding essay holdsout the possibility of Labour revival arising from slowdisenchantment with Conservative policies amid second­termuncertainties and vicissitudes. In light of Jeremy Corbyn’selection as Labour leader post­publication, the editors may wantto rethink that prospect, having voiced the opinion that anyleftward shift ‘lacks electoral logic’ (260). Indeed, by reviving amore pronounced left/right dichotomy, the ‘Corbyn factor’ maysolidify Conservative support. Equally, continuing austerity, anEU Referendum and intermittent constitutional instability inScotland and Northern Ireland make it likely that the 2020election may also be promoted as one of the most unpredictableof modern times.

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In presenting a concise, analytical and well­rounded account ofthe 2015 General Election, Britain Votes 2015 succeeds in itsprimary objective. The essays are assiduously researched andunderpinned by a battery of statistical, contextual and anecdotalevidence. Inevitably, there is sporadic overlap and reiteration, buteach essay is characterised by informed content and pointedanalysis. By convincingly demonstrating the multi­facetedelements that influenced the campaign and result, the book isgreater than the sum of its parts. Most pertinently, theconfiguration and architecture of the electoral system and theresources required to operate effectively within it, the prevailingeconomic narratives which had developed between 2010 and2015 and the increasing importance of leadership qualities, allpointed towards, and largely explain, the Conservative victory.Ultimately, explaining outcomes are the fundamental purpose ofelectoral studies, and the skilful analysis contained within thisinformative and authoritative volume makes it recommendedreading for scholars of contemporary British politics.

Dr Gordon Bannerman is a private tutor, researcher, writer andauthor based in Dundee. He received his PhD from King’sCollege London, in 2005, having previously studied medieval andmodern history at the London School of Economics and King’sCollege London (BA: LSE, 1997; MA: KCL & LSE, 1998). He haspreviously taught Modern British History at the University ofDundee, King’s College London, and the London School ofEconomics. Read more reviews by Gordon Bannerman.

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EUROPP – Book Review: Britain Votes 2015 edited by Andrew Geddes andJonathan Tonge 12/06/2015 at 8:10 am ­ Reply

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