21 JULY – 25 JULY 2014

W E E K L Y

R

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P

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Blow by Blow

On

Bullions,

Base metals,

Energy…

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MAJOR EVENTS Gold futures fell for the first time in three days as speculation that the Federal

Reserve will raise U.S. interest rates sooner than expected outweighed concerns that

tensions between Ukraine and Russia will escalate. The Fed may have to raise its

benchmark rate more quickly than planned as unemployment drops and inflation

accelerates, James Bullard, president of the St. Louis Fed, said yesterday. Yesterday,

gold jumped the most in four weeks after a Malaysia Airlines plane crashed in Ukraine

and Israel sent ground forces into the Gaza Strip. Russia and Ukraine blamed each

other for the downing of the passenger jet that killed 298 people. Bullion rose 8.9

percent this year as Fed policy makers pledged to keep borrowing costs low, while

turmoil in the Middle East and Eastern Europe spurred demand for a haven asset. The

metal posted the first weekly drop since May as gains in the U.S. economy bolster the

case for a rate increase. The dollar reached a four-week high against a basket of 10

major currencies. This week, the price dropped 2.1 percent, snapping the longest rally

since August 2011. This year, gold has outperformed commodities, equities and

Treasuries. In 2013, the metal plunged 28 percent, the most in three decades, as U.S.

stocks rallied to a record and inflation was muted.

West Texas Intermediate crude capped its first weekly gain in a month after a

Malaysia Airlines passenger jet was downed in Ukraine and Israel sent ground forces

into the Gaza Strip. WTI has climbed 3.2 percent since July 15, when it dropped below

$100 for the first time in two months. The Boeing Co. 777 crashed in the main

battleground of Ukraine’s civil war, threatening to escalate the worst crisis between

the West and Russia since the end of the Cold War. Israel’s movement of troops and

tanks into Gaza marks the first significant ground operation in the coastal enclave

since 2009. The geopolitical threat was discounted too quickly and has rapidly been

priced back in. The events in eastern Ukraine and in the Middle East are a reminder of

the fragility of the world’s biggest oil-exporting regions. WTI for August delivery

dropped 6 cents to settle at $103.13 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

The volume of all futures traded was 47 percent above the 100-day average for the

time of day. Futures climbed 2.3 percent this week and are up 4.8 percent this year.

Brent for September settlement slipped 65 cents, or 0.6 percent, to end the session

at $107.24 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The

September contract slipped 2 cents this week.

Crude Posts First

Weekly Gain in a

Month on Ukraine

Nickel Posts

Longest Slump in

Five Months on

Supply Gain.

Nickel prices fell to cap the longest slump in five months as inventories tracked by the

London Metal Exchange rose to a record.

Stockpiles have climbed 19 percent this year to 311,088 metric tons, and open interest

has dropped to a four-month low. Prices have jumped 34 percent this year, partly

because Indonesia barred shipments of unprocessed ores, spurring concerns that

supplies will trail demand.

The LME stock rise reflects the reality that the global market remained in surplus

during the first half of the year. Nickel for delivery in three months tumbled 2.8

percent to settle at $18,660 a ton at 5:58 p.m. on the LME, the biggest decline since

May 15. The metal dropped for the fifth straight session, the longest slump since Jan.

30. Copper in London fell 1.2 percent to $6,985 a ton ($3.17 a pound), the largest

decline since June 6. Aluminum, zinc, lead and tin also dropped.

On the Comex in New York, copper futures for September delivery fell 1.1 percent to

$3.1845 a pound. The price has declined 6.2 percent this year.

Gold Drops as

Interest-Rate

Outlook Trumps

Ukraine Havoc.

E C O N O M I C C A L E N D E R

DATE & TIME DESCRIPTION FORECAST PREVIOUS

July 22 6:00pm Core CPI m/m 0.2% 0.3%

6:00pm CPI m/m 0.3% 0.4%

6:30pm HPI m/m 0.4% 0.0%

7:30pm Existing Home Sales 4.98M 4.89M

7:30pm Richmond Manufacturing Index 5 3

July 23 8:00pm Crude Oil Inventories -7.5M

July 24 6:00pm Unemployment Claims 310K 302K

7:15pm Flash Manufacturing PMI 57.5 57.3

7:30pm New Home Sales 485K 504K

8:00pm Natural Gas Storage 107B

July 25 6:00pm Core Durable Goods Orders 0.6% 0.0%

6:00pm Durable Goods Orders m/m 0.4% -0.9%

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

27735 27360 27035 28200 28590 28950

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

44300 43480 42570 45580 46400 47360

T E C H N I C A L V I E W

MCX GOLD showed over all weakness

except Malaysia Airlines plane crash

day and closed below the trendline

around 23.6% retracement. Now, if it

maintains above 28600 then next

resistance may be seen around 29000.

On other hand if it sustains below

27740 then bearish movement may

take it towards the next support level

of 27350.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX GOLD is to sell

on highs for the targets of 27400-27000

with stop loss of 29100.

PIVOT TABLE

G O L D

PIVOT TABLE

S I L V E R

T E C H N I C A L V I E W

MCX SILVER on daily charts last week

showed sideways movement and

closed around upper band of channel

pattern. Now if upper breakout of this

consolidation phase happens then

immediate resistance is seen around

46400. On the other hand if this

correction phase on lower side

continues then 43950 will act as

important support level.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX SILVER at this

point of time is to sell below 44300 for

the target of 43000, with stop loss of

46000.

C R U D E O I L

C O P P E R

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

6175 6115 6025 6265 6320 6375

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

420.30 411.60 402 432.10 440.25 448.50

T E C H N I C A L V I E W

MCX Copper last week was unable to

surpass the important resistance level

of 439 and revert from 38.2%

retracement and closed the week with

negative bias. On daily charts, selling

on highs was witnessed and five

consecutive lower lows are seen. If it

sustains below 423 then it may drag

towards strong support around 415

meanwhile any correction may find

resistance in range of 432-440.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to buy

above 6300 for the targets of 6500, with

stop loss of 6090.

PIVOT TABLE

T E C H N I C A L V I E W

MCX Crude oil on last week showed

bullish movement on account of

Ukraine Havoc after three straight

weekly downfall. It showed strong pull

back from major support of 5930 on

daily charts and headed towards 6250.

Now, if it maintains above 6265 then

next resistance is seen around trend

line i.e. 6365. On other hand 5930 will

again act as major support level.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX COPPER is to sell

below 423, with stop loss of 435 for the

targets of 415.

PIVOT TABLE

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