Book Profit In Commodity News
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Transcript of Book Profit In Commodity News
- 21 JULY 25 JULY 2014 W E E K L Y R E P O R T Blow by Blow On Bullions, Base metals, Energy WWW.TRIFIDRESEARCH.COM
- MAJOR EVENTS Gold futures fell for the first time in three days as speculation that the Federal Reserve will raise U.S. interest rates sooner than expected outweighed concerns that tensions between Ukraine and Russia will escalate. The Fed may have to raise its benchmark rate more quickly than planned as unemployment drops and inflation accelerates, James Bullard, president of the St. Louis Fed, said yesterday. Yesterday, gold jumped the most in four weeks after a Malaysia Airlines plane crashed in Ukraine and Israel sent ground forces into the Gaza Strip. Russia and Ukraine blamed each other for the downing of the passenger jet that killed 298 people. Bullion rose 8.9 percent this year as Fed policy makers pledged to keep borrowing costs low, while turmoil in the Middle East and Eastern Europe spurred demand for a haven asset. The metal posted the first weekly drop since May as gains in the U.S. economy bolster the case for a rate increase. The dollar reached a four-week high against a basket of 10 major currencies. This week, the price dropped 2.1 percent, snapping the longest rally since August 2011. This year, gold has outperformed commodities, equities and Treasuries. In 2013, the metal plunged 28 percent, the most in three decades, as U.S. stocks rallied to a record and inflation was muted. West Texas Intermediate crude capped its first weekly gain in a month after a Malaysia Airlines passenger jet was downed in Ukraine and Israel sent ground forces into the Gaza Strip. WTI has climbed 3.2 percent since July 15, when it dropped below $100 for the first time in two months. The Boeing Co. 777 crashed in the main battleground of Ukraines civil war, threatening to escalate the worst crisis between the West and Russia since the end of the Cold War. Israels movement of troops and tanks into Gaza marks the first significant ground operation in the coastal enclave since 2009. The geopolitical threat was discounted too quickly and has rapidly been priced back in. The events in eastern Ukraine and in the Middle East are a reminder of the fragility of the worlds biggest oil-exporting regions. WTI for August delivery dropped 6 cents to settle at $103.13 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The volume of all futures traded was 47 percent above the 100-day average for the time of day. Futures climbed 2.3 percent this week and are up 4.8 percent this year. Brent for September settlement slipped 65 cents, or 0.6 percent, to end the session at $107.24 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The September contract slipped 2 cents this week. Crude Posts First Weekly Gain in a Month on Ukraine Nickel Posts Longest Slump in Five Months on Supply Gain. Nickel prices fell to cap the longest slump in five months as inventories tracked by the London Metal Exchange rose to a record. Stockpiles have climbed 19 percent this year to 311,088 metric tons, and open interest has dropped to a four-month low. Prices have jumped 34 percent this year, partly because Indonesia barred shipments of unprocessed ores, spurring concerns that supplies will trail demand. The LME stock rise reflects the reality that the global market remained in surplus during the first half of the year. Nickel for delivery in three months tumbled 2.8 percent to settle at $18,660 a ton at 5:58 p.m. on the LME, the biggest decline since May 15. The metal dropped for the fifth straight session, the longest slump since Jan. 30. Copper in London fell 1.2 percent to $6,985 a ton ($3.17 a pound), the largest decline since June 6. Aluminum, zinc, lead and tin also dropped. On the Comex in New York, copper futures for September delivery fell 1.1 percent to $3.1845 a pound. The price has declined 6.2 percent this year. Gold Drops as Interest-Rate Outlook Trumps Ukraine Havoc.
- E C O N O M I C C A L E N D E R DATE & TIME DESCRIPTION FORECAST PREVIOUS July 22 6:00pm Core CPI m/m 0.2% 0.3% 6:00pm CPI m/m 0.3% 0.4% 6:30pm HPI m/m 0.4% 0.0% 7:30pm Existing Home Sales 4.98M 4.89M 7:30pm Richmond Manufacturing Index 5 3 July 23 8:00pm Crude Oil Inventories -7.5M July 24 6:00pm Unemployment Claims 310K 302K 7:15pm Flash Manufacturing PMI 57.5 57.3 7:30pm New Home Sales 485K 504K 8:00pm Natural Gas Storage 107B July 25 6:00pm Core Durable Goods Orders 0.6% 0.0% 6:00pm Durable Goods Orders m/m 0.4% -0.9%
- S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3 27735 27360 27035 28200 28590 28950 S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3 44300 43480 42570 45580 46400 47360 T E C H N I C A L V I E W MCX GOLD showed over all weakness except Malaysia Airlines plane crash day and closed below the trendline around 23.6% retracement. Now, if it maintains above 28600 then next resistance may be seen around 29000. On other hand if it sustains below 27740 then bearish movement may take it towards the next support level of 27350. S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX GOLD is to sell on highs for the targets of 27400-27000 with stop loss of 29100. PIVOT TABLE G O L D PIVOT TABLE S I L V E R T E C H N I C A L V I E W MCX SILVER on daily charts last week showed sideways movement and closed around upper band of channel pattern. Now if upper breakout of this consolidation phase happens then immediate resistance is seen around 46400. On the other hand if this correction phase on lower side continues then 43950 will act as important support level. S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX SILVER at this point of time is to sell below 44300 for the target of 43000, with stop loss of 46000.
- C R U D E O I L C O P P E R S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3 6175 6115 6025 6265 6320 6375 S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3 420.30 411.60 402 432.10 440.25 448.50 T E C H N I C A L V I E W MCX Copper last week was unable to surpass the important resistance level of 439 and revert from 38.2% retracement and closed the week with negative bias. On daily charts, selling on highs was witnessed and five consecutive lower lows are seen. If it sustains below 423 then it may drag towards strong support around 415 meanwhile any correction may find resistance in range of 432-440. S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to buy above 6300 for the targets of 6500, with stop loss of 6090. PIVOT TABLE T E C H N I C A L V I E W MCX Crude oil on last week showed bullish movement on account of Ukraine Havoc after three straight weekly downfall. It showed strong pull back from major support of 5930 on daily charts and headed towards 6250. Now, if it maintains above 6265 then next resistance is seen around trend line i.e. 6365. On other hand 5930 will again act as major support level. S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX COPPER is to sell below 423, with stop loss of 435 for the targets of 415. PIVOT TABLE
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