Bomet, Muranga, Nandi and Siaya - TIFA...
Transcript of Bomet, Muranga, Nandi and Siaya - TIFA...
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| © 2017 | All Rights Reserved |Proprietary & Confidential | TIFA Research Limited |
Bomet, Muranga, Nandi and Siaya 9th March 2017
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Table of Contents
TIFA’s Track Record in Opinion Polling
Bomet
Muranga
Nandi
Siaya
Observations
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TIFA’s Track Record in Opinion Polling
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Professional Memberships
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TIFA Research got it right in the Malindi by-election
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Opinion Poll Findings
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• The objectives of the county public opinion poll surveys were as follows;
• To assess the political party affiliation in each county.
• To identify the most popular candidates in each county for the following seats;
• Governor;
• Senator and;
• Women Representative.
7
Survey Objectives
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Bomet County
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Bomet: Methodology
9
Dates 15th to 19th February 2017
Location Bomet County
Target Both males and females aged 18+ years
Data
collection
Face to face interviews, respondents sampled from households
Sample Size 660
Margin of Error +/- 4%
![Page 10: Bomet, Muranga, Nandi and Siaya - TIFA Researchtifaresearch.com/wp...Nandi-Muranga-Siaya-County-Opinion-Polls.pdf · •The objectives of the county public opinion poll surveys were](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022022601/5b471f617f8b9a5e5f8bedaf/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
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Bomet: Political Party Preference
Q. Which political party do you feel closest to?
71%
15%
6% 1% 1% 4%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Jubilee Party Chama ChaMashinani
NASA Maendeleo ChapChap
KANU Undecided
Base = 660
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Bomet: Governor Candidate Preference
44%
32%
19%
6%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Issac Rutto Joyce Laboso Dr Julius Kones Undecided
Q. If elections were to be held today, whom would you vote for as Governor?
Base = 660 CCM Jubilee Party Jubilee Party
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45%
24% 20%
3% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Undecided Nick Salat Prof WilfredLesan
StacyChepkemoi
WakiliKoskei
RobinsonKigen
PaulChirchir
KigenRobinson
KemeiEnock
EnockKemei
PaulChirchir
ChristopherLangat
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Bomet: Senator Candidate Preference
Q. If elections were to be held today, whom would you vote for as Senator?
KANU Jubilee
Base = 660
Prof Wilfred Lesan is the incumbent
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Bomet: Women Rep Candidate Preference
Q. If elections were to be held today, whom would you vote for as Women Representative?
48%
14% 13% 12%
3% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Undecided CeciliaChelangat
Ngetich
Joyce Korir BeatriceChebomui
CeciliaMutai
HellenTaplilei
Alice Milgo DorothyChep
StecyChepkemoi
PatriciaLasoi
MadamCeciliaRotuk
FlorenceKorir
Incumbent vying for MP of Sotik
Base = 660
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Muranga County
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Muranga: Methodology
16
Dates 15th to 19th February 2017
Location Muranga County
Target Both males and females aged 18+ years
Data
collection
Face to face interviews, respondents sampled from households
Sample Size 500
Margin of Error +/- 4% at 95% confidence
![Page 16: Bomet, Muranga, Nandi and Siaya - TIFA Researchtifaresearch.com/wp...Nandi-Muranga-Siaya-County-Opinion-Polls.pdf · •The objectives of the county public opinion poll surveys were](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022022601/5b471f617f8b9a5e5f8bedaf/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
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Muranga: Demographics
50%
50%
22%
29%
17%
11%
7%
14%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Male
Female
18-24 years
25 – 30 years
31 – 35 years
36 – 40 years
40 – 45 years
46+ years
Base = 500
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Muranga: Political Party Preference
Q. Which political party do you feel closest to?
88%
4% 4% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Jubilee Party NASA MaendeleoChap Chap
PNU NARC KENYA Undecided Others
Base = 500
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Muranga: Governor Candidate Preference
Q. If elections were to be held today, whom would you vote for as Governor?
48%
34%
6% 10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Mwangi wa Iria Jamleck Kamau Dr Moses Mwangi Undecided
Base = 500
Jubilee Jubilee Jubilee
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Muranga: Senator Candidate Preference
43%
31%
18%
4% 2% 1% 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Kembi Gitura Irungu Kangata Undecided Elias Mbau Others Calaghan Mwangi
Base = 500
Jubilee Jubilee
Q. If elections were to be held today, whom would you vote for as Senator?
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Muranga: Women Representative Candidate Preference
70%
15% 13%
2% 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Sabina Wanjiru Chege Undecided Waithira Muithirania Mama Sacco
Base = 500
Jubilee Jubilee
Q. If elections were to be held today, whom would you vote for as Women Representative?
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Nandi County
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Nandi: Methodology
23
Dates February 2017
Location Nandi County
Target Both males and females aged 18+ years
Data
collection Face to face interviews, respondents sampled from households
Sample Size 700 respondents aged 18+ years
Margin of Error +/- 4% at 95% confidence
![Page 23: Bomet, Muranga, Nandi and Siaya - TIFA Researchtifaresearch.com/wp...Nandi-Muranga-Siaya-County-Opinion-Polls.pdf · •The objectives of the county public opinion poll surveys were](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022022601/5b471f617f8b9a5e5f8bedaf/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
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Nandi: Political Party Preference
Q. Which political party do you feel closest to?
Base =700
88%
7% 2% 2% 1%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Jubilee Party NASA None Undecided Maendeleo Chap Chap
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1. Cleophas Lagat – Incumbent , and previously Principal, Eldoret polytechnic
2. Henry Kosgey - Former Minister in Moi and Kibaki’s Government
3. Felix Koskei - Former Cabinet Secretary in Jubilee Government
4. Stephen Sang – Incumbent Senator
5. Silas Kipruto – Baringo County Ex-Director for Finance
6. Abraham Mutai - Former Athlete & Athletics Kenya Regional Official
7. Alphonse Kirwa - OIe Lessos College Principal
8. Barnabas Sang - Uasin Gishu ICT Executive
9. Serem Kibet Anderson - Engineer
10. Peter Kipkemboi Maiyo - a former manager at Eastern Produce Company.
11. Stephen Tarus – Diplomat and ex-MP
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11 Aspirants for Jubilee Party Ticket
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27
Nandi: Governor Candidate Preference
Q. If elections were to be held today, whom would you vote for as Governor?
36%
21% 18% 18%
3% 2% 2% 1% 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
HenryKosgey
Felix Koskei CleophasLagat
Undecided BarnabasSang
StephenTarus
Others AbrahamMutai
Incumbent Governor is Cleophas Lagat
Jubilee Jubilee Jubilee Base =700
Jubilee Jubilee Jubilee
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Nandi: Senator Candidate Preference
50%
14%
4% 8%
24%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Stephen Sang Kiprotich Cherargei Elvis Langas Others Undecided
Base =700
Q. If elections were to be held today, whom would you vote for as Senator?
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24% 22% 20% 17%
9% 4% 2% 1%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Zipporah KurgatKering
Undecided Tecla Tum TheresaChepkwony
Selina Rotich Bernadette Tiony Esther Letting Mary Lucy Kurgat
29
Nandi: Women Representative Candidate Preference
Base =700
Zipporah Kurgat is the incumbent
Jubilee Jubilee Jubilee Jubilee Jubilee
Q. If elections were to be held today, whom would you vote for as Women Representative?
![Page 28: Bomet, Muranga, Nandi and Siaya - TIFA Researchtifaresearch.com/wp...Nandi-Muranga-Siaya-County-Opinion-Polls.pdf · •The objectives of the county public opinion poll surveys were](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022022601/5b471f617f8b9a5e5f8bedaf/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Siaya County
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Siaya: Methodology
31
Dates 15th to 19th February 2017
Location Siaya County
Target Both males and females aged 18+ years
Data
collection
Face to face interviews, respondents sampled from households
Sample Size 350
Margin of Error +/- 5% at 95% confidence
![Page 30: Bomet, Muranga, Nandi and Siaya - TIFA Researchtifaresearch.com/wp...Nandi-Muranga-Siaya-County-Opinion-Polls.pdf · •The objectives of the county public opinion poll surveys were](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022022601/5b471f617f8b9a5e5f8bedaf/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
33
Siaya: Political Party Preference
Q. Which political party do you feel closest to?
97%
2% 1% 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
NASA Jubilee Party Undecided
Base = 350
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40%
29%
20%
4% 4% 3%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Cornel RasangaAmoth
William Oduol Gumbo Nicolas O. Carey Orege Undecided James Orengo
34
Siaya: Governor Candidate Preference
Q. If elections were to be held today, whom would you vote for as Governor?
Base = 350 ODM ODM ODM ODM ODM
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35
Siaya: Senator Candidate Preference
87%
5% 8%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
James Orengo Agnes Awour Undecided
ODM
Base = 350
Q. If elections were to be held today, whom would you vote for as Senator?
Independent
![Page 33: Bomet, Muranga, Nandi and Siaya - TIFA Researchtifaresearch.com/wp...Nandi-Muranga-Siaya-County-Opinion-Polls.pdf · •The objectives of the county public opinion poll surveys were](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022022601/5b471f617f8b9a5e5f8bedaf/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
36
Siaya: Women Representative Candidate Preference
67%
26%
7%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Dr Christine Oduor Ombaka Undecided Florence Akinyi Aluodo
Base = 350
Dr Christine Oduor Ombaka is the incumbent
ODM ODM
Q. If elections were to be held today, whom would you vote for as Women Representative?
![Page 34: Bomet, Muranga, Nandi and Siaya - TIFA Researchtifaresearch.com/wp...Nandi-Muranga-Siaya-County-Opinion-Polls.pdf · •The objectives of the county public opinion poll surveys were](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022022601/5b471f617f8b9a5e5f8bedaf/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
Observations
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38
Observations
• The political party nominations scheduled for March/April 2017 and this
is likely to affect the final list of candidates for each political seat. There
has been calls for strong candidates to be given automatic nominations
tickets.
• The party nominations expected to be competitive and they could also lead to fall outs. This is because there are a number of strong candidates vying for one seat under the same party.
• Party hopping law - The high court temporarily suspended the implementation of a law that stops politicians from party hopping.
• The expected rise and rise parties not in the major coalitions such as PNU, Mandeleo Chap Chap KANU, Chama Cha Mashinani that are giving strong candidates an alternative.
![Page 36: Bomet, Muranga, Nandi and Siaya - TIFA Researchtifaresearch.com/wp...Nandi-Muranga-Siaya-County-Opinion-Polls.pdf · •The objectives of the county public opinion poll surveys were](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022022601/5b471f617f8b9a5e5f8bedaf/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
39
Observations
• Strong candidate abandoning their seats - popular Senators and MP will need to work harder to convince voters that they can be Governors or Senators.
• Undecided voters – the proportion is high and this because the final list of candidate is not clear. Voters will eventually make up their minds as we move closer to the elections.
![Page 37: Bomet, Muranga, Nandi and Siaya - TIFA Researchtifaresearch.com/wp...Nandi-Muranga-Siaya-County-Opinion-Polls.pdf · •The objectives of the county public opinion poll surveys were](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022022601/5b471f617f8b9a5e5f8bedaf/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
Maggie Ireri
Managing Director [email protected]
TIFA Research Ltd
Lenana Towers 843 Lenana Road, Kilimani
P O Box 59629, 00200 Nairobi, Kenya.
+254 205 20 22 91 +254 728 40 60 85
www.tifaresearch.com
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