BOE Advisory Council July 25, 2013 The Economic Outlook
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BOE Advisory Council July 25, 2013 The Economic Outlook Joe Fitz Chief of Research and Statistics Board of Equalization
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BOE Advisory Council July 25, 2013 The Economic Outlook. Joe Fitz Chief of Research and Statistics Board of Equalization. U.S. Economic Forecast Selected U.S. Economic Indicators. Actual Forecast 1/ 2011 2012 2013 2014 Real Gross Domestic Product - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of BOE Advisory Council July 25, 2013 The Economic Outlook
BOE Advisory CouncilJuly 25, 2013
The Economic Outlook
Joe FitzChief of Research and Statistics
Board of Equalization
Actual Forecast 1/2011 2012 2013 2014
Real Gross Domestic Product (Percent Change) 1.8% 2.2% 1.6% 2.7%
Consumer Price Index (Percent Change) 3.1% 2.1% 1.3% 1.5%
Unemployment Rate (Percent) 8.9% 8.1% 7.6% 7.2%
Ten-Year U.S. Treasury Bond Rates 2.8% 1.8% 2.2% 2.7%
1/ Source: Global Insight July 2013 forecast
U.S. Economic ForecastSelected U.S. Economic Indicators
Real Gross Domestic Product
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
3.5
3.1
2.7
1.9
-0.3
-3.1
2.4
1.8
2.2
1.6
2.7
3.5
Real Growth by Component of Consumption
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015-8.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0 Real Total Consumption Real Durables Real Nondurables Real Services
Real Growth by Component of Nonresidential Investment
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015-25.0
-20.0
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0 Real Nonresidential Fixed Investment Real Equipment & Software Real Structures
Real Growth by Component of Residential Investment
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015-60.0
-40.0
-20.0
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
Real Residential Fixed Investment Single-Family Multi-Family
Real Growth of Exports and Imports
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
Real Exports Real Imports
Real Growth of Government Spending
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015-8.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
Real Federal Government Spending Real State & Local Government Spending
Consumer Prices
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
Consumer Prices (% Change) CPI Excluding Food & Energy (% Change)
U.S. Gasoline Prices (Cents/gallon)
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20150.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
300.0
350.0
400.0
U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20150.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
Federal Deficit (Federal FY, Billions $)
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015-1600
-1400
-1200
-1000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
Ten-Year Treasury Note Yield (%)
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20150.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
Monthly Financial Obligations as a Percent of Disposable Income
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 201514.0
15.0
16.0
17.0
18.0
19.0
20.0
Percent Change in U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015-5.0%
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
U.S. Employment Growth
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015-6.0%
-5.0%
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
Percent change in Private Employment Percent Change in Total Nonfarm Payrolls
2013-14 May Revision Forecasts for California
2013 2014
Unemployment Rates 9.4% 8.6%Nonagricultural Employment Growth 2.1% 2.0%
Personal Income Growth 2.1% 5.7%
Taxable Sales 3.9% 7.5%Housing Permits (Thousands of units) 82 121
Real Dollars Growth2011 2010 2011
San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara $94,587 12.9% 6.3%San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont $69,089 0.7% 1.5%Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana $51,222 -0.8% 0.9%San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos $48,698 -1.2% 1.1%Average of 366 U.S. Metropolitan Areas $45,222 2.1% 0.7%Napa $42,492 -4.1% -3.0%Santa Barbara-Santa Maria-Goleta $41,851 -0.4% 1.4%Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura $40,496 2.1% 2.6%Sacramento-Arden-Arcade-Roseville $37,969 -0.6% -0.8%Santa Rosa-Petaluma $37,019 3.1% 0.4%Salinas $34,530 -3.0% -5.2%
Per capita real GDP for the Top Ten California Metropolitan Areas (Real Dollars)
Changes in Taxable Sales From 2006 to 2011 (Top Ten Cities Ranked by Population)
Table 1Changes in Taxable Sales From 2006 to 2011(Top Ten Cities Ranked by Population)
City
Population January 1,
2013
2011 Taxable
Sales as a Percentag
e of 2006 Taxable
Sales
Recovery in 2011
From 2006?
Los Angeles 3,863,839 96% noSan Diego 1,326,238 97% noSan Jose 984,299 101% ExpansionSan Francisco 825,111 107% ExpansionFresno 508,453 86% noSacramento 473,509 87% noLong Beach 467,646 112% ExpansionOakland 399,326 84% noBakersfield 359,221 95% noAnaheim 346,161 88% noTop Ten Cities 9,553,803 97% 3 of 10California 37,966,000 93% 147 of 478
2011 Per Capita Taxable Sales(Top Ten Cities Ranked by Population)
City
Population January 1,
2013
2011 Taxable
Sales as a Percentage
of 2006 Taxable
Sales
2011 Taxable
Sales Per Capita
Los Angeles 3,863,839 96% 9,798$ San Diego 1,326,238 97% 14,701$ San Jose 984,299 101% 12,530$ San Francisco 825,111 107% 18,047$ Fresno 508,453 86% 12,244$ Sacramento 473,509 87% 11,176$ Long Beach 467,646 112% 11,002$ Oakland 399,326 84% 9,349$ Bakersfield 359,221 95% 15,173$ Anaheim 346,161 88% 14,861$ Top Ten Cities 9,553,803 97% 12,097$ California 37,966,000 93% 13,856$
Cities Expanding in Taxable Sales (Ranked by Population of the Top Ten Expanding Cities)
City
Population January 1,
2013
2011 Taxable
Sales as a Percentage
of 2006 Taxable
Sales
2011 Taxable
Sales Per
Capita San Jose 984,299 101% 12,530$ San Francisco 825,111 107% 18,047$ Long Beach 467,646 112% 11,002$ Fontana 200,974 106% 11,240$ Sunnyvale 145,973 100% 17,658$ Carlsbad 108,246 100% 22,239$ Compton 97,549 120% 6,105$ Vista 95,264 100% 12,778$ Hawthorne 85,474 101% 12,247$ Livermore 83,325 101% 21,806$ California 37,966,000 93% 13,856$
Cities Not Expanding in Taxable Sales (Ranked by Population of the Top Ten Cities Not Expanding)
City
Population January 1,
2013
2011 Taxable
Sales as a Percentage
of 2006 Taxable
Sales
2011 Taxable
Sales Per
Capita Los Angeles 3,863,839 96% 9,798$ San Diego 1,326,238 97% 14,701$ Fresno 508,453 86% 12,244$ Sacramento 473,509 87% 11,176$ Oakland 399,326 84% 9,349$ Bakersfield 359,221 95% 15,173$ Anaheim 346,161 88% 14,861$ Santa Ana 329,915 83% 10,084$ Riverside 311,955 80% 12,884$ Stockton 296,344 83% 10,573$ California 37,966,000 93% 13,856$
2010 and 2011 Changes in Taxable Sales(Top Ten Cities Ranked by Population)
City
Population January 1,
2013
2010 Taxable
Sales Growth
2011 Taxable
Sales Growth
Los Angeles 3,863,839 3.6% 8.7%San Diego 1,326,238 4.2% 9.1%San Jose 984,299 10.3% 7.2%San Francisco 825,111 6.4% 10.8%Fresno 508,453 1.2% 8.5%Sacramento 473,509 0.0% 7.0%Long Beach 467,646 12.5% 4.4%Oakland 399,326 2.7% 12.8%Bakersfield 359,221 5.6% 16.8%Anaheim 346,161 3.8% 9.4%Top Ten Cities 9,553,803 4.9% 9.1%California 37,966,000 4.6% 9.1%
2010 and 2011 Changes in Taxable SalesCities Expanding in Taxable Sales
City
Population January 1,
2013
2010 Taxable
Sales Growth
2011 Taxable
Sales Growth
San Jose 984,299 10.3% 7.2%San Francisco 825,111 6.4% 10.8%Long Beach 467,646 12.5% 4.4%Fontana 200,974 11.6% 13.2%Sunnyvale 145,973 12.1% 11.4%Carlsbad 108,246 7.4% 9.9%Compton 97,549 1.8% 10.3%Vista 95,264 4.7% 13.2%Hawthorne 85,474 4.9% 11.1%Livermore 83,325 3.5% 11.4%Top Ten Expanding Cities 3,093,861 8.6% 9.2%California 37,966,000 4.6% 9.1%
2010 and 2011 Changes in Taxable SalesCities Not Expanding in Taxable Sales
City
Population January 1,
2013
2010 Taxable
Sales Growth
2011 Taxable
Sales Growth
Los Angeles 3,863,839 3.6% 8.7%San Diego 1,326,238 4.2% 9.1%Fresno 508,453 1.2% 8.5%Sacramento 473,509 0.0% 7.0%Oakland 399,326 2.7% 12.8%Bakersfield 359,221 5.6% 16.8%Anaheim 346,161 3.8% 9.4%Santa Ana 329,915 2.0% 4.7%Riverside 311,955 5.5% 8.9%Stockton 296,344 0.8% 9.3%Top Ten Cities 8,214,961 3.4% 9.2%California 37,966,000 4.6% 9.1%
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