Photo courtesy Corey Deards. What is El Nino? El Nino Signal.
BMKG Drought assessment over Indonesia related to El Nino ...BMKG Drought assessment over Indonesia...
Transcript of BMKG Drought assessment over Indonesia related to El Nino ...BMKG Drought assessment over Indonesia...
BMKG
Drought assessment over Indonesia related to El Nino and SSTA Indonesia
Erwin MakmurIndonesia Agency of Meteorological Climatological and Geophysical Agency (BMKG)[email protected]
Lincoln, Nebraska, December, 8-11 2009
Inter-Regional Workshop on Indices and Early Warning Systems for Drought
BMKGOutline
Indonesia Climate Characteristic Drought Assessment related to El Nino
and SSTA over Indonesia Drought Impact Summary
BMKG
EL NINO / LA NINA
DIPOLE MODE
A F R I C
A
A F R I C
A
A S I A
A S I A Ags -Sep Okt - Nov
Ags -Sep Okt - Nov
Indonesian Monsoon
1
2
3
4
Indonesia SST
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
BMKG
INDONESIA RAINFALL DRIVING FORCE
Lincoln, Nebraska, December, 8-11 2009
Inter-Regional Workshop on Indices and Early Warning Systems for Drought
BMKG
The General Rainfall Types in Indonesia
Lincoln, Nebraska, December, 8-11 2009
Inter-Regional Workshop on Indices and Early Warning Systems for Drought
BMKG
ELNINO AND INDONESIA SSTA IMPACT FOR SEASON
TEN DAYS NORMAL RAINFALL FOR BLITAR
0
50
100
150
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36
TEN DAYS
CUMULA
TIVE
RAIN
FALL
(mm
Lincoln, Nebraska, December, 8-11 2009
Inter-Regional Workshop on Indices and Early Warning Systems for Drought
BMKG
ELNINO AND INDONESIA SSTA IMPACT FOR SEASON
TEN DAYS NORMAL RAINFALL FOR BLITAR
0
50
100
150
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36
TEN DAYS
CUMULA
TIVE
RAIN
FALL
(mm
Normal Dry Season Period
Lincoln, Nebraska, December, 8-11 2009
Inter-Regional Workshop on Indices and Early Warning Systems for Drought
BMKGRelation between Elnino and the Onset of Rainy Season
Blitar
y = 2.0554x + 31.608R2 = 0.2985
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
36
38
-2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5
Elnino34 Index Agustus
Ons
et o
f Rai
ny S
easo
n (te
n da
ys )
Relation between Indonesia SSTA and the Onset of Rainy Season Blitar
y = -5.6838x + 31.836R2 = 0.3147
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
36
38
-0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
Indonesia SSTA Agustus
Aw
al M
usim
Huj
an (d
asar
ian
ke)
Relation between Elnino and Rainy Season Length Blitar
y = -3.2823x + 18.368R2 = 0.2987
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
-2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5
Indeks Elnino34 bulan Agustus
Panj
ang
Mus
im H
ujan
(das
aria
n)
Relation between Indonesia SSTA and Rainy Season Length Blitar
y = 9.4369x + 17.994R2 = 0.34040
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
-0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
Anomali SST Indonesia bulan Agustus
Panj
ang
Mus
im H
ujan
(d
asar
ian)
Lincoln, Nebraska, December, 8-11 2009
Inter-Regional Workshop on Indices and Early Warning Systems for Drought
BMKG
Impact of Elnino and Indonesia SSTA for Onset of Rainy Season in Blitar
Early Late
Elnino3,4 Index
Normal
Lincoln, Nebraska, December, 8-11 2009
Inter-Regional Workshop on Indices and Early Warning Systems for Drought
BMKG
Onset and Period Length Rainy Season Simulation using ENSO and SSTA Indonesia
Lincoln, Nebraska, December, 8-11 2009
Inter-Regional Workshop on Indices and Early Warning Systems for Drought
BMKGMaps of Seasonal Forecast Areas (SFA)
And Non SFA
Lincoln, Nebraska, December, 8-11 2009
Inter-Regional Workshop on Indices and Early Warning Systems for Drought
BMKGThe Impact of the ENSO to Season
A. The ENSO 1997 Relation with Average Early Dry Season
Lincoln, Nebraska, December, 8-11 2009
Inter-Regional Workshop on Indices and Early Warning Systems for Drought
BMKGB. The ENSO 1997 Relation with Average Early Wet Season
Lincoln, Nebraska, December, 8-11 2009
Inter-Regional Workshop on Indices and Early Warning Systems for Drought
BMKGC. The ENSO 1997 Relation with Average Rainfall of Dry Season
Lincoln, Nebraska, December, 8-11 2009
Inter-Regional Workshop on Indices and Early Warning Systems for Drought
BMKGD. The ENSO 1997 Relation with Average Dry Season Length
Lincoln, Nebraska, December, 8-11 2009
Inter-Regional Workshop on Indices and Early Warning Systems for Drought
BMKG
Season Onset(Percentage areas)
Elninoyears
2154252008
5624204417392007
801554015452006
5025251720632005
702461522642004
5526191420662003
662591522632002
4132272725492001
3530354920312000
3026444024361999
2116635518271998
76204918731997
3126422227511996
3633314027321995
722271928531994
6917132221571993
4023373223461992
702281923581991
6525102826461990
4336213633321989
3136341732511988
5336111331561987
3339282437381986
3846172628461985
3930313929321984
4227304127321983
682831435511982
LateSameEarlyLateSameEarly
Rainy SeasonDry Season
Year
Lincoln, Nebraska, December, 8-11 2009
Inter-Regional Workshop on Indices and Early Warning Systems for Drought
BMKG
• MONTHLY FORECAST : 1. Total rainfall forecast 2. Total rainfall respective to normal
Monthly forecast is issued and update every early month for at least 3 months ahead .
• SEASONAL FORECAST : 1. The Onset of Dry / Wet Season.2. Total rainfall and respective to normal of total rainfall
during the season.
The Dry Season forecast is released every early of March and Wet season every early of September.
MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE FORECAST USED AT BMKG - INDONESIA
KIND OF FORECAST :
Lincoln, Nebraska, December, 8-11 2009
Inter-Regional Workshop on Indices and Early Warning Systems for Drought
BMKG Drought Indices Percent of Normal (Operationally) > 115 % Above Normal 85 – 115 % Normal < 85% Below Normal
Palmer Drought Severity Index (Research) Normalized Multi-band Drought Index (other
Institutional)
Lincoln, Nebraska, December, 8-11 2009
Inter-Regional Workshop on Indices and Early Warning Systems for Drought
BMKG
Total Rainfall Forecast for December 2009
Low
Medium
High
Very High Updated : November 2009
Legenda
RAINFALL MONTHLY FORECAST
Lincoln, Nebraska, December, 8-11 2009
Inter-Regional Workshop on Indices and Early Warning Systems for Drought
BMKG
Below Normal
Normal
Above Normal Updated : November 2009
Total Rainfall Prediction respective to normal December 2009
RAINFALL MONTHLY FORECAST
Lincoln, Nebraska, December, 8-11 2009
Inter-Regional Workshop on Indices and Early Warning Systems for Drought
BMKG
Forecast of Onset Rainy Season
Forecast of Rainy Season Respective to Normal
SEASONAL FORECAST
Lincoln, Nebraska, December, 8-11 2009
Inter-Regional Workshop on Indices and Early Warning Systems for Drought
BMKGDrought Impacts
Water Management Agriculture Energy
Lincoln, Nebraska, December, 8-11 2009
Inter-Regional Workshop on Indices and Early Warning Systems for Drought
BMKG
Water Management
Lincoln, Nebraska, December, 8-11 2009
Inter-Regional Workshop on Indices and Early Warning Systems for Drought
BMKG
Agriculture
Lincoln, Nebraska, December, 8-11 2009
Inter-Regional Workshop on Indices and Early Warning Systems for Drought
BMKG
Energy
Lincoln, Nebraska, December, 8-11 2009
Inter-Regional Workshop on Indices and Early Warning Systems for Drought
BMKG Summary Generally, dry season and rainy season
variability over Indonesia caused by global phenomena such us El Nino and SSTA Indonesia
The Forecasting of El Nino and SSTA Indonesia important to make policy for water management
Lincoln, Nebraska, December, 8-11 2009
Inter-Regional Workshop on Indices and Early Warning Systems for Drought
BMKG