BlueStar Israel Equity Review & Outlook...Ceragon Networks 18.55% Sarine Technologies Ltd -31.64%...

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BlueStar Israel Global Index ® Relative Performance Since 2010 1 This BlueStar Indexes® Monthly Update covers Israeli equities traded worldwide. The BlueStar Israel Global Index® (BIGI® or BLS:IND on Bloomberg) is used as the benchmark for our review as it represents the complete opportunity set of Israeli equities. BIGI® is tracked by the NYSE-listed ISRA Israel ETF and by two TASE-listed ETNs. Israel has one of the world’s most resilient economies, its technology sector is a global innovation leader, and its companies have a global footprint. The BlueStar Israel Equity Update provides insight into macro forces, the geopolitical environment in which Israel’s economy operates, and the individual company investment opportunities that have contributed to Israeli Global Equities’ impressive long-term performance. Benchmark Period Return BIGI® -7.92% MSCI Israel -8.95% TA-100 -6.27% S&P 500 -6.26% MSCI EAFE -7.42% MSCI EM -8.94% Global Equity Benchmark Comparison: August 2015 ® TASE-BlueStar Israel Global Technology Index TM Relative Performance Since 2010 Benchmark Period Return BIGITech TM -7.22% Nasdaq-100 -6.85% S&P Global Tech -6.10% TA- BlueTech -4.06% EM Internet & E-commerce -12.77% Global Technology Stock Index Comparison: August 2015 The opinions expressed in this report are those of BlueStar Global Investors, LLC and should not be interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Readers should consult with a financial professional before investing. © 2015 BlueStar Global Investors, LLC BlueStar Israel Equity Review & Outlook August/September 2015 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2012 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 TA-100 S&P 500 BIGI EIS 50.00 100.00 150.00 200.00 250.00 300.00 BIGITech NQ-100 Global Tech (IXN) “What goes up, must come down” September 4, 2015 With apologies to Blood, Sweat and Tears, Israeli global equities, as measured by BIGI®, proved that even strong and outperforming equity markets like Israel can only buck the tide of deteriorating macroeconomic fundamentals and a global growth scare for so long before succumbing to those forces. BIGI® declined 7.92% in August, closing at 288.60, and now ended the month 8.11% below the all-time high of 314.09 reached on July 29. All ten sectors tracked by BIGI™ declined during the month, illustrating the broad nature of August’s sell-off. Predictably, high-beta sectors such as information technology and financials were among the hardest hit, but even typically defensive segments of the market such as telecoms and consumer staples, also declined during the month. (Commentary continued on following page.)

Transcript of BlueStar Israel Equity Review & Outlook...Ceragon Networks 18.55% Sarine Technologies Ltd -31.64%...

Page 1: BlueStar Israel Equity Review & Outlook...Ceragon Networks 18.55% Sarine Technologies Ltd -31.64% Audiocodes Ltd 15.36% Delek Energy Systems -30.49% Sapiens Intl Corp 8.48% Wix.com

BlueStar Israel Global Index ® Relative Performance Since 2010

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This BlueStar Indexes® Monthly Update covers Israeli equities traded worldwide. The BlueStar Israel Global Index® (BIGI® or BLS:IND on Bloomberg) is used asthe benchmark for our review as it represents the complete opportunity set of Israeli equities. BIGI® is tracked by the NYSE-listed ISRA Israel ETF and by twoTASE-listed ETNs. Israel has one of the world’s most resilient economies, its technology sector is a global innovation leader, and its companies have a globalfootprint. The BlueStar Israel Equity Update provides insight into macro forces, the geopolitical environment in which Israel’s economy operates, and theindividual company investment opportunities that have contributed to Israeli Global Equities’ impressive long-term performance.

Benchmark Period Return

BIGI® -7.92%

MSCI Israel -8.95%

TA-100 -6.27%

S&P 500 -6.26%

MSCI EAFE -7.42%

MSCI EM -8.94%

Global Equity Benchmark Comparison:August 2015

®

TASE-BlueStar Israel Global Technology Index TM

Relative Performance Since 2010

Benchmark Period Return

BIGITechTM -7.22%

Nasdaq-100 -6.85%

S&P Global Tech -6.10%

TA- BlueTech -4.06%

EM Internet & E-commerce -12.77%

Global Technology Stock Index Comparison:August 2015

The opinions expressed in this report are those of BlueStar Global Investors, LLC and should not be interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Readers should consult with a financial professional before investing.

© 2015 BlueStar Global Investors, LLC

BlueStar Israel Equity Review & OutlookAugust/September 2015

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“What goes up, must come down”September 4, 2015

With apologies to Blood, Sweat and Tears, Israeli global equities, as measured by BIGI®, proved that even strong and outperforming equity markets like Israel can only buck the tide of deteriorating macroeconomic fundamentals and a global growth scare for so long before succumbing to those forces.

BIGI® declined 7.92% in August, closing at 288.60, and now ended the month 8.11% below the all-time high of 314.09 reached on July 29.

All ten sectors tracked by BIGI™ declined during the month, illustrating the broad nature of August’s sell-off. Predictably, high-beta sectors such as information technology and financials were among the hardest hit, but even typically defensive segments of the market such as telecoms and consumer staples, also declined during the month.

(Commentary continued on following page.)

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BlueStar Israel Equity Review & OutlookAugust/September 2015

Source: BlueStar Global Investors LLC; Currency-Adjusted returns in dollar terms

Top Israeli Equity Gainers and Losers: August 2015

Top-Performing Israeli Stocks Worst-Performing Israeli Stocks

Ezchip Semiconductor 36.67% MacroCure Ltd -77.32%

Neuroderm Ltd 34.60% Caesar Stone Sdot Yam -44.54%

Enzymotec Ltd 21.74% Opko Health Inc -33.90%

Ceragon Networks 18.55% Sarine Technologies Ltd -31.64%

Audiocodes Ltd 15.36% Delek Energy Systems -30.49%

Sapiens Intl Corp 8.48% Wix.com Ltd -29.46%

Matrix 7.30% Brainsway Ltd. -27.54%

Cellcom Israel Ltd. 4.51% Delek Group Ltd -20.62%

Alcobra Ltd 3.92% Compugen Ltd -19.87%

Ceva Inc 2.78% ReWalk Robotics Ltd -19.29%

GICS Period Contribution

Telecom Services -0.04%

Consumer Staples -0.11%

Utilities -0.12%

Consumer Disc. -0.16%

Energy -0.53%

Materials -0.60%

Industrials -0.76%

Info. Technology -1.26%

Financials -1.54%

Health Care -2.81%

Israeli Equity Sector Contributionto BIGI® Performance: August 2015

The opinions expressed in this report are those of BlueStar Global Investors, LLC and should not be interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Readers should consult with a financial professional before investing.

© 2015 BlueStar Global Investors, LLC

Data released in August highlighted the downward pressures that have been building up for some time, particularly the impactof the strong shekel on exports and of rising housing costs on consumer spending and confidence. Q2 GDP growth was 0.3%, asharp slowdown compared to the last several quarters. This suggests that the snap back effect after last year’s Gaza war haslargely run its course. The strong shekel is having a significant negative impact on Israeli exports which contracted by 11.6% inthe quarter. Some of this is attributable to strikes at Israel Chemicals which effectively halted its exports for the quarter, butthe overall trend is clear – and negative.

Declining exports, a weakening fiscal position and turmoil in global currency markets helped push the shekel down by 1.3%against the currency basket in August. The path of least resistance is now for a weakening shekel over the next severalquarters. We believe this is in line with the goals of the Bank of Israel, which would like to jumpstart the economy throughhigher exports rather than by cutting interest rates – which it kept at 0.10% - to zero or even negative.

BlueStar Bottom Line: While we believe Israeli’s underlying economic fundamentals remain strong, the economy has clearlyentered a more difficult stage than in recent months. Israeli equities will have to overcome that hurdle as well as those beingperiodically put up by the government in the form of questionable regulatory and fiscal policy moves in order to regain July’srecord highs.

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Market Trends &Technical Analysis: BIGI®

StrongSupport Area

The opinions expressed in this report are those of BlueStar Global Investors, LLC and should not be interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Readers should consult with a financial professional before investing.

© 2015 BlueStar Global Investors, LLC

StrongResistance Area

StrongSupport Area

There was significant short-term technical damage done to BIGI® in August. The index broke below short-term support indicated bythe lower dotted orange support line in the chart below. The long-term positive trend, however, remains intact. We have for sometime highlighted the “strong resistance area” indicated by the red circle in the chart above, and though we were wrong to call for abreakout through that area during August, BIGI® remains in a very strong technical position to continue its multi-year bull market. The“strong support area” indicated by the green circles in the charts above and below have been included in our technical analysis chartssince February 2015. Although the lowest depths of that support area are another 3-5% lower, BIGI® finished August right in themiddle of that support zone. This can be interpreted as an excellent point to begin accumulating exposure to BIGI® for investors with ahigh risk tolerance. Risk-averse investors may prefer to sit on the sidelines until the 270/275 level is reached with a tight stop justbelow the early 2015 lows at 267. If those lows are broken the index could reach as low as the 240-250 area indicated by the upwardsloping thick black trend lines. If this support area holds above 267, we would expect the index to retest all time highs by Q1 2016.

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Market Trends &Technical Analysis: BIGI®

While a break below the 200-day moving average for the first time in several months should be taken seriously, we will continue to view the 267-275 area as strong support until the 50-day average moves decisively through the 200-day average and the 200-day average begins to slope downward.

The downward slope of the 100-daymoving average is a short-term bearishsign, indicating that BIGI® could seesome volatile sideways action, albeit ina wide range, over the next severalweeks.

Page 5: BlueStar Israel Equity Review & Outlook...Ceragon Networks 18.55% Sarine Technologies Ltd -31.64% Audiocodes Ltd 15.36% Delek Energy Systems -30.49% Sapiens Intl Corp 8.48% Wix.com

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Market Trends &Technical Analysis: BIGITechTM

The opinions expressed in this report are those of BlueStar Global Investors, LLC and should not be interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Readers should consult with a financial professional before investing.

© 2015 BlueStar Global Investors, LLC

StrongSupport Area

StrongResistance Area

Israeli Global Technology Equities, as defined by the TASE-BlueStar Israel Global Technology IndexTM, is displaying a similartechnical pattern as BIGI®. While there is little to suggest that a major breakout to the upside is possible in the short-term, theindex is now in the middle section a “strong support area,” the lower section of which (represented by the double parallel upwardsloping green trend lines), we expect to hold. If the lower section of that support zone is broken, significant further downside,perhaps even as low as the 175 level, would be likely.

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Market Trends & Technical Analysis: Israeli Shekel vs U.S. Dollar

The volatility of the Israeli shekel has been a major contributor to the returns of dollar-denominated Israeli equity indexesover the past several months. We believe the BoI is comfortable with the USD/Shekel rate at or slightly below the 0.25level given its stated desire to encourage exports in order to support growth. We believe recent weakness In the shekel isa harbinger of further weakness accompanied by higher levels of volatility.

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Israel: the Go-To Destination for Global Technology Companies

The opinions expressed in this report are those of BlueStar Global Investors, LLC and should not be interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Readers should consult with a financial professional before investing.

© 2015 BlueStar Global Investors, LLC

In this monthly feature we highlight the attractiveness of the Israeli technology sector by noting significant recent capitalmarkets and M&A activity:

• Enlight Renewable Energy, which develops, builds and operates clean electricity projects from renewable energy sources, and has solar and windfarms in Israel, will build a windfarm in Ireland worth ILS 100 mil. Enlight is the renewable energy arm of Eurocom Group, one of the largest holding companies in Israel. The company has started work on the 14 megawatt farm, which is planned to be completed in the second half of 2016.

• Israeli specialty materials innovator StoreDot has raised $18 million for its new Electric Vehicle business unit. Investors include Norma Investments Limited, representing Roman Abramovich, Samsung Ventures, and Moshe Hogeg's Israeli Singulariteam fund.

• Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) signed a contract to supply its TAME Range, the Cyber Range training platform and certification for cyber warfare teams to Japan's Dai Nippon Printing (DNP). Tokyo-based DNP, a leader in publication printing, documentation security and software security products will become a reseller of IAI's Cyber Range in Japan. TAME Range allows a realistic cyber warfare training environment to improve the cyber awareness and readiness of cyber defenders. There is currently a need in Japan to train some 80,000 IT personnel to prevent cyber-attacks and meet security challenges related to the 2020 Olympics.