BLUE MED PROJECT€¦ · BLUE MED PROJECT PHASE 1: FEASIBILITY STUDY FINAL REPORT Partners: ENAV...

BLUE MED PROJECT PHASE 1: FEASIBILITY STUDY

FINAL REPORT

Partners: ENAV (Project Co-ordinator) Italy

DCAC Cyprus HCAA Greece MATS Malta

Associated partners: NANSC Egypt OACA Tunisia Supporting organisations: EUROCONTROL Europe SICTA Italy UniTS Italy UniVenezia Italy AUEB Greece

Final Release Edition 2.0

24/06/2008

BLUE MED phase 1- Feasibility Study – Final Report

DOCUMENT IDENTIFICATION SHEET

DOCUMENT DESCRIPTION

DOCUMENT TITLE BLUE MED Project Phase 1– Feasibility Study

Final Report

DELIVERABLE REFERENCE NUMBER

PROJECT REFERENCE NUMBER EDITION: 2.0

N/A EDITION DATE: 24/06/2008

Keywords

BLUE MED, Feasibility Study, FAB, SES, Final report.

Contact Person: Tel: Organisation: Cristiano Cantoni ENAV SpA +39 06 8166856

Email: Fax: Address: [email protected] + 39 06 8166861 ENAV CNS/ATM

Experimental Centre Via Agri 2 00198 Roma Italia

DOCUMENT STATUS AND CLASSIFICATION

STATUS

Working draft Final Draft

Proposed Issue Released Issue

CLASSIFICATION Public MDIR TSPEC Internal MREP SWC Confidential TREP SYC Restricted

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mailto:[email protected]


AUTHORS AND REVIEWING PROCESS

ORGANISATION AUTHORS REVIEWING APPROVAL

DCAC P. Stratis Leonidas Leonidou

ENAV C. Cantoni Giancarlo Ferrara

HCAA A. Kiousis Vassilios Tagkalos

MATS R. Sant Larry Fenech

OACA Mohamed Rejeb Mohamed Rejeb

NANSC Mohey Ragheb Mohey Ragheb

K. Harvey

V. Leu L. Bellesia EUROCONTROL

J. Morin S. Tiberia

C. Koutsakos

SICTA G. Graziano Supporting

organisations :

L. Castelli UNITRIESTE

R. Pesenti UNIVENEZIA

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DOCUMENT CHANGE RECORD

The following table records the complete history of the successive editions of the document.

ED. DATE SECTIONS/PAGES REASON FOR CHANGE AFFECTED 0.1 8/08/2007 First draft – index proposal All

0.2 21/01/2008 WP1 results integration 2.7.1

0.3 05/03/2008 Review of document structure and work sharing All

0.3.1 13/03/2008 Draft on going document for first distribution All

Executive summary – 2.2 – 2.7 – 3 – 4. 0.3.2 28/03/2008 Additional contributions by EUROCONTROL

0.3.3 08/04/2008 Contribution on route charges from UNITRIESTE 2.7.8

0.3.4 18/04/2008 Contribution on targets from ENAV 2.6

Contribution on Safety from DCAC 2.8.4

0.3.5 22/04/200 Contribution on CONOPS from MATS 2.7

2.8.3

0.3.6 05/05/2008 Contribution on Legal Issues and Technical Framework from SICTA 2.8.5 Contribution on Economical Issues from UNIVENEZIA 2.9.2

0.3.7 09/05/2008 Internal language + format review All

0.3.8 12/052008 PM first review All

Language Check from EUROCONTROL All

0.3.9 16/05/2008 New HLEA Tables form ENAV 2.9.2

Revision of Capacity and Delay 2.8.1.3

0.4 30/05/2008 PM review All

0.5c 06/06/2008 First Draft for distribution to partners All

1.0 17/06/2008 Released issue All

2.0 24/06/2008 Comments to the released issue All

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The BLUE MED Feasibility Study The BLUE MED project is pursuing the implementation of Functional Airspace Blocks (FABs) in the South – East Mediterranean Area, in accordance with the requirements of the Single European Sky, to be put in operation by 2012 and with 2015 as target date for full FAB operations.

To this purpose, a Feasibility Study was initiated in 2006 by the Italian Ministry of Infrastructures and Transports with the participation of a Consortium of ANSPs: ENAV SpA, representing the Italian Republic in the role of project coordinator, the Cypriot DCAC, the Greek HCAA and the Maltese MATS. The Tunisian OACA and the Egyptian NANSC also participated as associated partners. Later in the project, the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan and Republic of Albania joined the Consortium with an observer status. The Feasibility Study, conducted with financial support from the EU, and the expert support from EUROCONTROL, constitutes the basis for a political decision to progress to the Definition phase.

1Figure 1 - BLUE MED feasibility study area

The BLUE MED project aims to fulfil the SES requirements by enabling the expected traffic growth, reducing environmental impact, continuously improving safety and enhancing cost efficiency. The BLUE MED FAB shall be defined in accordance with the stakeholders’ expectations.

In order to assess the capability of BLUE MED to provide the expected benefits, a set of key performance areas and measurable key performance targets have been agreed for the main improvement areas envisaged for the future FAB, fully aligned with the current European ATM practice and also adopted by SESAR and the PRU.

1 The Feasibility Study focused not only on the airspace within the ACC’s boundaries of the participating States (in blue in the picture above), but analysed a larger area in order to capture the operational requirements on a regional basis (see 2.1). For this study, vertical boundaries within the operational analysis were set from FL 195 to FL 660 while the TMA airspace was not examined. Lower airspace as well as the Terminal Area will be included in the following Definition Phase of the BLUE MED FAB.

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BLUE MED Improvements

2Results from the Feasibility Study demonstrate that the BLUE MED FAB will provide in 2015 a series of relevant improvements3 in the following fields:

4o Operational: A new optimised route network design and FAB-wide seamless operations may contribute to reduce the ECAC wide Route Extension, currently evaluated around 3.9%, of more than 1%5. The potential fuel saving at the ECAC level, due to the improved BLUE MED network in an average summer month (30 days) could be quantified in nearly 30.000 Tons, equivalent to a cost saving of approx 14.5 M€6. In addition to this, the BLUE MED FAB is expected to deliver significant capacity increases7, an overall FAB improvement of 2% due to the optimised route Network and additional 10% for each ACC resulting from optimised sectorisation and seamless operations.8 The delay forecast shows a global BLUE MED FAB delay of 0.1 minute/flight associated with significant flight efficiency benefits. These early findings indicate that BLUE MED proposed improvements should generate enough capacity increase to accommodate future traffic requests while substantially contributing to the achievement of the European En-route Delay Target of 1 minute/flight.

o Environmental: even if ATM in itself is not considered a main environmental threat, the study indicates that a significant reduction of gaseous emission should be expected by 2015 as a result of the optimised route network and harmonised operational procedures in BLUE MED FAB, meaning as much as -5,3% of CO, -5,3% HC, -2,4% NOx -2,8% CO2 and – 2,8% SO2.

2 BLUE MED FAB improvements have been evaluated for the 2015 and 2020 time horizon. Early implementation of the BLUE MED FAB (planned for 2012) could in part anticipate the delivery of the expected benefits. 3 It is important to notice that the BLUE MED improvements will add on the SESAR expected improvements; therefore the relevance of the expected BLUE MED benefits, even when apparently displaying lower values than SESAR, shall be read under this perspective. 4 The BLUE MED 2015 route network used in the study includes the ECAC wide AAS (Advanced Airspace Scheme) and the regional optimisations over the BLUE MED area, and constitutes a major contributor to the improved ECAC ATS route network. The reader shall be aware that it is not possible to isolate the BLUE MED contribution, as many of the proposed new routes result from a coordinated design that crosses FAB boundaries. The published Operational benefits are therefore attributable to BLUE MED in combination with the other FAB initiatives. See 2.7.1 for further details. 5The data refers to the improvements generated in the ECAC by the BLUE MED contribution, reducing the extension from the theoretical VST extension of 3,94% down to 2,90% with the new BLUE MED 2015 network implemented. 6 These savings result from the combination of the improvements foreseen in AAS and BLUE MED. 7 The capacity forecast shall be confirmed by further analysis in phase 2; nevertheless, operational experience has showed that removing artificial constraints and simplifying the task for the controller has an important impact on increasing the sector capacity.. 8Capacity improvements due to early FAB benefits are expected to be 1% for each ACC for the period 2009-2012 and an additional 2% per year for each ACC resulting from full FAB benefits for the period 2013-2015. These benefits shall be considered in addition to the current capacity plans (as identified in the LCIPs 2008-2012), extrapolated for the period 2012-2015 adding an yearly increase of 3-5% per ACC (to be confirmed by further analysis in Phase 2).

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o Technical: two different interoperability scenarios have been identified for the

FAB: a Minimum Scenario, describing an initial, low cost implementation of interoperability which would be sufficient for FAB Virtual Centre9 operations and achievable through limited modifications of the existing systems; a Maximum Scenario, a more enhanced and exhaustive implementation of interoperability achieved through a more extensive technical improvements, such as wide commonality of systems and the adoption of a new generation of FDP system. The maximum scenario constitutes the transition towards SESAR, ensuring that BLUE MED achieves the agreed pan-European performance targets within a roadmap designed having an improved cost-effectiveness as a major driver.

10o Safety: several FAB related aspects appear to impact positively on safety, such as the implementation of a new route network with de-conflicted routes, a sectors re-design independent from national borders and allowing sector boundaries in the areas of low complexity, the use of enhanced automation for ATC functions prone to human errors (e.g. co-ordination), enhanced sharing of data to improve ATM functions (e.g. surveillance), the harmonisation of ATC procedures reducing risk of errors and improving handling of contingencies and common training enhancing ATCO to ATCO cross-border interaction and cooperation etc..

o Legal and Human resources issues have also been investigated, producing a list of topics to be solved in the Definition phase in order to prepare the smooth transition to FAB implementation.

BLUE MED Financial Considerations Route charges

Different charging options have been studied addressing what should be expected in terms of improvements to the aviation community in a BLUE MED environment.

The study shows that the BLUE MED FAB should be beneficial for the area as soon as 2015 and, a fortiori, if targeting 2020 when the fulfilment of SESAR is expected to ensure significant lower charges for the users.

The Study determined that, from the charges perspective, no major issues or impediments exist for the establishment of the BLUE MED FAB as far as the ECAC area countries are concerned.

In this respect, as the network configuration resulted from the BLUE MED Operational Analysis should be considered as the best possible case for the area from the users’ perspective, it is notable that the theoretical single unit rate (SUR) identified for the BLUE MED FAB is not going to be higher but substantially lower than the hypothetical SUR of a FAB based on the 2006 network: in the best scenario, the SUR in 2015 would decrease by about 15% in comparison to its actual value. If we still consider the national unit rates scheme (NCB), for all the four EU ANSPs these are generally going to be lower by 10 % to 20 % in 2015. These percentages are expected to improve in 2020 when considering full FAB implementation effects.

9 Virtual Centre: a grouping of interconnected and interoperable ATSUs providing seamless uniform operations and services to the Airspace Users on the whole FAB. 10 It should be noted that in this early phase of the project safety improvements were expressed mostly in terms of expert expectations.

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High Level Economical Assessment

The study was conducted on two main directions:

o An evaluation of the status of the fragmentation in the BLUE MED area and the expected benefits generated by the BLUE MED FAB.

o The identification of 16 major FAB Improvement Areas enabled by the implementation of the BLUE MED FAB, with an assessment of their related costs and benefits.

Fragmentation in the BLUE MED Area

The main conclusion of the analysis on fragmentation is that its impact in the BLUE MED area is currently inferior to the average of the ECAC area, mostly due to the geographical characteristics and extent of the area..

As expressed in Table 1 ,comparison11 of the key metrics of BLUE MED (Egypt and Tunisia excluded) with the European equivalents, shows that BLUE MED accounts for about 12-14 % of the European air navigation en-route services and related costs.

Total ATM/CNS en-route

costs (€millions)

Controlled flight hours

(millions)

Total ACC

ATCOs in OPS

Total ACC staff

Size of airspace (000 km2)

Number of sectors

Number of ACCs

BLUE MED 1.674 1,44 696 70-80 7-8 1.464 3.244 EUROPE 13.068 11,05 4.997 638 66 9.529 31.887

BLUE MED % 13% 13% 14% 12% 11% 15% 10%

Table 1 - Key metrics: BLUE MED vs. Europe

It should be considered that the current costs of fragmentation in the BLUE MED area are possibly less than could be suggested by the above percentages. Indeed, as discussed in Section 2.8.2.1. the impact of fragmentation in the BLUE MED area is probably less than the average of the ECAC area12,. Nonetheless, there is scope for improvement for the BLUE MED FAB, as transition and investment costs13 should be contained and the BLUE MED FAB could prevent future increase of fragmentation while attracting non EU Mediterranean countries to integrate their airspace with SES. De-fragmentation issues will be further pursued in the project Phase 2.

Cost-effectiveness of the BLUE MED FAB

To assess the economic benefits induced by the BLUE MED FAB, 16 major FAB Improvement Areas (FIAs) have been identified as the most promising areas in which the establishment of the FAB will supposedly generate benefits. For each of the FIAs two possible scenarios have been

11 Source: ATM Cost-Effectiveness (ACE) 2005 12 Logically inferring that proportionally reduced benefits could be expected from the implementation of the BLUE MED FAB. 13 Hereafter we define transition costs as the costs that occur where it is necessary to maintain parts of the current system during the transition period to a new system. Investment costs as the costs associated with the acquisition of equipment, property, one-off services, one-off operating start-up costs, and other one-off expenditure for the project.

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investigated, a Minimum FAB Scenario and a Maximum FAB Scenario, representing respectively the lower and the upper presumable limits for improvements deployment within the FAB, with corresponding increasing complexity, costs and related benefits. These scenarios should be framed within a roadmap for the FAB: from an initial FAB implementation to a continuous evolution and improved performance, passing through SESAR implementation plans.

The Minimum Scenario should be considered as the candidate arrangement for early implementation (2012) of the BLUE MED FAB to provide short term benefits. Higher performance levels are expected with improvements which should come with the gradual implementation of the Maximum Scenario (full FAB operations – 2015 onwards)14.

Regarding the Cost Effectiveness KPIs, the results from the Study shows that the BLUE MED FAB will induce a significant improvement in both financial effectiveness and productivity; the total savings in en-route costs may be up to 7% in 2015 (calculated on a baseline encompassing early effects of SESAR and other ongoing activities), corresponding to a maximum Net Present value of around 360 M€ of all the saving from 2010 to 202015 (8% discount rate used). These savings are expected to be additional to SESAR interventions and existing local improvement activities.

In order to meet the agreed BLUE MED key performance targets, the adoption of intermediate scenarios (between Do Minimum and Do Maximum) will be required from 2012, while the BLUE MED targets will be met by the full implementation of the Do Maximum scenarios from 2015 onwards.

Conclusions

The BLUE MED Feasibility Study constitutes the first, fundamental step for the establishment of a FAB over the south east Mediterranean area, aiming to fulfil the SES regulations.

The study has been conducted under the assumption that the expectations of several stakeholders needs to be reconciled and satisfied; to this purpose, a set of key performance indicators has been defined for the main improvement areas, and used to measure the capability of BLUE MED to provide the expected benefits by reaching agreed key performance targets.

In addition to creating an unprecedented and excellent working cooperation and understanding between the participating ANSPs, the study has concluded that the expected improvements that will derive from the FAB creation, when offset against the related costs, clearly support the feasibility and viability of the FAB.

The study also remarks that the work performed at this feasibility stage needs to be completed and integrated into an agreed FAB Implementation Scenario and validated by an extensive Definition Phase. The BLUE MED team is well aware that this Definition Phase will prove much more challenging in term of resources from most relevant stakeholders (ANSPs, CAAs, Military Authorities EUROCONTROL and workers’ federations, Unions, Airlines Associations, etc..) dedicated to complete the job, and that this will require full commitment from the States and all the organisations concerned.

14 Nothing prevents the BLUE MED States to plan for direct implementation of the maximum solutions already in the early phases of FAB implementation (2012 onwards). 15 In order to capture long term benefits of FAB establishment, the economical analysis has been extended to 2020.

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To this purpose an adequately wide dissemination of the Feasibility Study results will be performed, in order to secure the indispensable support, and an official joint statement from the BLUE MED EU and non-EU States will be pursued to affirm State commitment to the initiative.

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY...........................................................................................................5

1 INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................................13

1.1 Purpose of the document ......................................................................................................13

1.2 Document Structure..............................................................................................................13

1.3 Acronyms .............................................................................................................................13

2 BLUE MED FEASIBILITY STUDY...............................................................................15 2.1 BLUE MED Project Objectives and Background................................................................15

2.2 BLUE MED Project structure ..............................................................................................17

2.3 BLUE MED FAB vision ......................................................................................................18

2.4 BLUE MED FAB stakeholders............................................................................................20

2.4.7 EU and Member States......................................................................................................20

2.4.8 Airspace Users ..................................................................................................................20

2.4.9 Civil Airspace users ..........................................................................................................20

2.4.10 Military Airspace users .....................................................................................................20

2.4.11 ANSPs and Staff ................................................................................................................21

2.4.12 Industry..............................................................................................................................21

2.4.13 Non-EU States ...................................................................................................................22

2.5 BLUE MED Targets.............................................................................................................23

2.5.1 Cost Effectiveness..............................................................................................................24

2.5.2 Capacity ............................................................................................................................25

2.5.3 Efficiency...........................................................................................................................26

2.5.4 Safety .................................................................................................................................26

2.5.5 Environmental sustainability.............................................................................................27

2.5.6 Interoperability..................................................................................................................27

2.6 BLUE MED Concept of Operations ....................................................................................28

2.6.1 Airspace Concept ..............................................................................................................28

2.6.2 Flexible Use of Airspace, Airspace Management and design...........................................28

2.6.3 Interoperability of ATM systems .......................................................................................29

2.6.4 Safety and Quality .............................................................................................................29

2.6.5 Environment ......................................................................................................................29

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2.6.6 Security.............................................................................................................................. 30

2.6.7 AIS..................................................................................................................................... 30

2.6.8 Human Resources ............................................................................................................. 30

2.7 BLUE MED Improvements ................................................................................................. 31

2.7.1 Operational improvements................................................................................................ 31

2.7.2 Environmental improvements ........................................................................................... 37

2.7.3 Technical improvements ................................................................................................... 38

2.7.4 Safety improvements ......................................................................................................... 39

2.7.5 Legal issues ....................................................................................................................... 40

2.7.6 Human resources issues.................................................................................................... 41

2.8 BLUE MED Financial Considerations ................................................................................ 43

2.8.1 Air Navigation Service Charges ....................................................................................... 43

2.8.2 High Level Economical Assessment.................................................................................. 44

3 CONCLUSIONS................................................................................................................ 57

4 RECOMMENDATIONS .................................................................................................. 58

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1 Introduction

1.1 Purpose of the document The purpose of this document is to provide an easy-to-read summary of the findings of the Feasibility Study conducted in the framework of the Phase 1 of the BLUE MED Project.

The document is intended to be the principal support deliverable in the decision making process leading to the Phase 2 of the project.

1.2 Document Structure Executive Summary: provides a brief description of the main document content.

Chapter 1 INTRODUCTION: contains the synopsis of the overall document.

Chapter 2 THE BLUE MED FEASIBILITY STUDY: describes the project scope, the objectives also in terms of measurable indicators, the identified improvements and the financial considerations.

Chapter 3 CONCLUSION: contains the conclusive statements of the BLUE MED Phase 1

Chapter 4 RECCOMANDATION: presents a final set of recommendations for the continuation of the BLUE MED project with the Definition and Implementation Phases.

1.3 Acronyms ACC Area Control Centre

ADS-B Automatic Dependant Surveillance – Broadcast

AMC AMC Airspace Management Cell

ANSP Air Navigation Service Provider

APP Approach Unit

ATFCM Air Traffic Flow and Capacity Management

ATS Air Traffic Service

ATC Air Traffic Control

ATCO Air Traffic Control Officer

ATM Air Traffic Management

ATSU Air Traffic Service Unit

CBA Cost Benefit Analysis

CNS Communication Navigation Surveillance

CO Carbon Oxide.

CO2 Carbon Dioxide, the principal greenhouse gas

DCAC Department of Civil Aviation of Cyprus

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DMEAN Dynamic Management of the European Airspace Network

DGTREN Directorate General Transport and Energy

EC European Commission

ENAV ENAV SpA – Società Nazionale per l’Assistenza al Volo

EU European Union

FAB Functional Airspace Block

FDP Flight Data Processor

FUA Flexible Use of Airspace

H2O Water (vapour)

HC Hydrocarbons, in this report, all hydrocarbons.

HCAA Hellenic Civil Aviation Authority

HLG High Level Group for the Future European Aviation Regulatory Framework

MATS Malta Air Traffic Services

NOx Generic term for oxides of nitrogen (NO, NO2, NO3), which contributes to acid rain, eutrophication and tropospheric ozone formation and indirectly to global warming and ozono layers changes

OACA Office de l'aviation civile et des aéroports

OLDI On-Line Data Interchange

PRU Performance Review Unit

R&D Research and Development

SES Single European Sky

SESAR Single European Sky ATM Research

SO2 Sulfur dioxide

TEN-T Trans European Network – Transport

TSA Temporary Segregated Area

VST Version Short Term

WP Work Package

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2 BLUE MED FEASIBILITY STUDY

2.1 BLUE MED Project Objectives and Background The SES legislation is aiming to allow the growth of European aviation in balance with environmental and safety objectives, aiming to achieve the objectives of the Lisbon Strategy16, in terms of reducing the internal and external costs of mobility between Europe and between Europe and the rest of the world. SES scope can be summarised by the following high level objectives17:

a) Enable growth: overall performance must be improved to accommodate the projected growth of 75% more aircraft movements by 2020. If demand is not met, congestion and delays will become unmanageable.

b) Reduce environmental impact: Concerns about the effect of aviation on climate change have been added to longstanding concerns about the impact of aviation on the quality of life in local communities. An enhanced approach is needed to accommodate the projected growth in traffic whilst decreasing aviation’s overall environmental footprint.

c) Continue improvement of safety: Safety is the overriding objective of the aviation system. The challenge is to create an integrated and highly transparent safety chain across the total aviation system, cost effectively delivering a common and high level of safety across Europe, generating continuous safety improvement and leading enhancement of aviation safety throughout the world.

d) Improve cost efficiency: The fragmented nature of the European aviation system results in high costs, both for the users and at the regulatory level. Together with improvement on the safety and the environment dimensions, European aviation must therefore also improve its cost efficiency performance.

More in details, in accordance with article 5 of Regulation No (EC) 551/2004, the upper airspace shall be reconfigured into Functional Airspace Blocks (FAB) which shall, inter alia:

(a) be supported by a safety case;

(b) enable optimum use of airspace, taking into account air traffic flows;

(c) be justified by their overall added value, including optimal use of technical and human resources, on the basis of cost-benefit analyses;

(d) ensure a fluent and flexible transfer of responsibility for air traffic control between air traffic service units;

(e) ensure compatibility between the configurations of upper and lower airspace;

(f) comply with conditions stemming from regional agreements concluded within the ICAO

16 European Council in Lisbon (March 2000): http://europa.eu/scadplus/glossary/lisbon_strategy_en.htm 17 HLG Report on European Aviation: a framework for driving performance improvement – July 2007

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http://ec.europa.eu/transport/air_portal/hlg/doc/2007_07_03_hlg_final_report_en.pdf


The BLUE MED project is pursuing the implementation of a FAB in the South – East Mediterranean Area, in accordance with the requirements of the Single European Sky, to be put in operation by 2012 and with 2015 as target date for full FAB operations.

The BLUE MED Single European Sky study was initiated in 2006 by the Italian Ministry of Transport with the participation of a Consortium of ANSPs 18: the Italian ENAV SpA, representing the Italian Republic in the role of undertaking body and project coordinator, the Cypriot DCAC, the Greek HCAA and the Maltese MATS. The Tunisian OACA and the Egyptian NANSC also participated in the study to evaluate the impact on the interfaces and also their possible future participation to the FAB. Later in the project, the Kingdom of Jordan and Albania joined the Consortium with an observer status. The study was conducted with the economical support of the EC DG TREN, and the expert support of EUROCONTROL.

Figure 2 - BLUE MED feasibility study and interaction area

It is important to note that the BLUE MED Feasibility Study focussed not only on the airspaces of the ACCs of the participating States, but aimed at capturing the operational requirements on a regional basis, under the assumptions that FABs shall be independent from national borders and adapt to the operational needs; to this purpose, all operational studies were performed on the BLUE MED FAB interaction area (see Fig. 1). Vertical boundaries for the FAB study were set within the operational analysis from FL 195 to FL 660, while the TMA airspace was not examined.

For the same reason, as already stated in the project management plan, the BLUE MED FAB project is open to the participation of any other interested State in the region, which would benefit from it and which, in turn, would benefit BLUE MED FAB. Furthermore, close inter- 18 All BLUE MED ANSPs have been mandated by their respective States to proceed with the BLUE MED Feasibility study.

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relation with the other neighbouring FAB initiatives has been pursued and will be fostered in the following phases of the project.

2.2 BLUE MED Project structure The BLUE MED FAB implementation project has been planned in three phases:

• Feasibility Study Phase (2006/2008) ⇒ Delivery of a Feasibility Study Report (M1) ⇒ Followed by a decision of all relevant stakeholders (States, Military

and ANSPs) to proceed with the Definition phase (M2)

• Definition Phase (2009/2011) ⇒ Delivery of detailed Implementation Plan ⇒ Divided in two Sub-Phases:

• Sub-Phase 1: Scenario definition aiming to the agreement of the BLUE MED FAB scenario (M3)

• Sub-Phase 2: aiming to the validation of the BLUE MED FAB scenario

⇒ Followed by a GO-NOGO decision of all relevant stakeholders (States, Military and ANSPs) to proceed with the Implementation phase (M4)

• Implementation Phase (2012) ⇒ Putting into operation all of the required enablers

• BLUE MED Operations (2013/2015) ⇒ BLUE MED FAB operations started (M5) ⇒ Continuous improvement to reach Full FAB operations in 2015 (M6)

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Figure 3 - The BLUE MED FAB implementation plan

2.3 BLUE MED FAB vision The BLUE MED partners have agreed that the success of the FAB creation process relies on an appropriate combination of the bottom-up approach (the common assessment by the ANSPs of the operational requirements and identification of the most promising FAB scenarios, with the active involvement of all interested stakeholders, such as the CAAs, the Military authorities and the Social dialogue partners – Unions etc) and the “top-down approach” (the political decision making process at States level, which will ultimately provide for the legal framework of the FAB institution).

The BLUE MED partners have also agreed on the need to identify clear and measurable Key Performance Indicators and the related Performance Targets, and conducting appropriate measurements of the expected Costs and Benefits to be presented to the FAB stakeholders for political decision and adequate steering of the FAB definition and implementation processes.

It has been agreed that the scenario of FAB developed by the BLUE MED project will respect the following 7 principles:

1. The BLUE MED FAB shall be operationally driven. The aim is to optimise air traffic flows of today and tomorrow and to standardise the systems, improving efficiency and reducing environmental impact.

2. The BLUE MED FAB shall take in account regional aspects of the Mediterranean area, acknowledging that different European regions have different ATM needs and peculiarities.

3. The BLUE MED FAB shall integrate with the overall European plan, under the guidance of the European Union and EUROCONTROL.

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194. The BLUE MED FAB shall be based on the “Virtual Center” model.

5. The BLUE MED FAB shall apply common procedures and training, to allow seamless operations by remotely located ATCOs.

6. The BLUE MED FAB shall ensure the interoperability of systems, to allow seamless operations of remotely located ATSUs.

7. The BLUE MED FAB airspace shall be redesigned in accordance with air traffic flows.

The BLUE MED States have acknowledged the SES requirements, and through the BLUE MED project aim to the implementation of the necessary changes to achieve them.

The BLUE MED partners also acknowledge the need of establishing the FAB in accordance with the stakeholders’ expectations, and will actively foster their participation to the FAB Definition and Implementation phase.

Finally the BLUE MED FAB shall be created with the direct participation and the support of the ANSP’s staff, and social dialogue and consensus creation shall be fostered in every phase of the project.

19 Virtual Centre: a grouping of interconnected and interoperable ATSUs providing seamless uniform operations and services to the Airspace Users on the whole FAB.

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2.4 BLUE MED FAB stakeholders The following paragraph summarises the expectations of the key BLUE MED FAB stakeholders:

2.4.7 EU and Member States The European Union and the EU Member States shares the same ambitious target of ensuring the timely implementation of the Single European Sky, as a mean of improving the efficiency of the air transport within and in the neighbourhood of the Union and support overall economical growth20. The European Union and the EU Member States also share a common policy aiming to reduce the environmental impact of aviation while maintaining safety at a maximum level.

2.4.8 Airspace Users Users include civil airlines (including general aviation) and the military authorities. All users require equitable and non-discriminatory access to infrastructure and services.

Although each category of airspace users have different business models, their expectations on the provision of air traffic services is principally focused on access, cost effectiveness, efficiency, capacity and safety. Environmental concerns have recently been identified by several civil airlines as a possible limitation to business development. Consequently all aspects promising to reduce the environmental impact of ATM and aircraft operations are getting increased attention.

The airspace users are looking to a variety of mechanisms to meet their needs, such as increased competition, explicit regulation of monopoly services and participation in the governance of services provision.

Additionally, inherent incompatibilities exist between the way in which commercial and other airspace users need to operate and the way in which the scarce resource of airspace is divided today and has led to inefficiencies in its use. For example, although some improvements in civil/military co-operation have been made in the recent years, there is still much more which can be done to achieve the greater access which both civil and military users require

2.4.9 Civil Airspace users

The civil airspace users are the most exposed link in the air transport value chain since they are responding to the commercial constraint to compete for customers in a highly competitive business sector, whilst being faced with many fixed costs, of which some originate from others in the chain, which operate under more monopolistic type conditions (ANSPs). This exposure also means they are the first to suffer the financial consequences of major events which can have an adverse impact upon World trade and/or the aviation industry in particular.

2.4.10 Military Airspace users Military Authorities are the expression of national requirements in terms of national security and defence. Hence sovereignty issues are of primary concern and military tasks, such as air policing, must take absolute priority over any other activities. Training is the day-to-day military activity 20 The Lisbon declaration of Head of States (EU Summit, Lisbon 2000) quotes the following view of EU to be achieved within in 2010: “to become the most competitive and dynamic knowledge based economy in the world, capable of sustainable growth with more and better jobs and greater social cohesion”.

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that has most impact on civil ATM. Measures are in place to minimise this impact, such as flexible use of airspace (FUA) and training on simulators.

The military airspace users need to maintain accessibility to specific reserved area in which to execute training missions. Requirements for the shape and the positioning of these areas could be changing (due to new combat aircraft type or evolving strategic needs).

21The flexible use of airspace (FUA) and the redesign of reserved areas (both in shape and locations) are possible solutions aiming at the optimisation of the airspace, and will both require direct involvement of the Military in the FAB definition and implementation processes.

2.4.11 ANSPs and Staff The ANSPs are transforming themselves into performance-driven service providers. The ANSPs wish to increase their responsibility in the development of the European ATM network in line with the investments they make, the risks they are bearing, their access to resources and their competence in delivering the services.

The ANSPs constitute the SES stakeholders that will have to implement the more fundamental changes, ranging from modifications of procedures and processes up to even to their corporate structure. The FABs establishment process needs to be conducted in a uniform and balanced way, so that it does not to hamper day-to-day operations. To this purpose, it is of fundamental importance for ANSPs to further involve their staff and the professional staff associations22 in the FAB implementation process.

2.4.12 Industry 23The manufacturing industry has a key role to play in building the supporting interoperable

ATM system to allow operations of the BLUE MED Virtual Centre, and this even before SESAR delivers the fully innovative future ATM system (2020+). To this purpose, BLUE MED intends to invite industry to participate to the project Definition Phase, as well as to foster European wide activities aiming to implement minimal interoperability requirements24.

21 The HLG report notices that moving airbases and training areas could prove difficult for a range of political and economic reasons. 22 The HLG report notices that the professional staff associations emphasised the positive contribution that they can make to the change programmes already in place in SES and SESAR as well as to any future changes proposed by the High Level Group. To support this, the professional staff associations expressed their ambition to be an integral part of the process rather than play a purely consultative role. BLUE MED Feasibility Study has taken action to keep Staff Associations in the study loop, performing update sessions on results; it is anyway understood that the Definition phase will require increased participation and coordination with staff associations. 23 The HLG report notices that, particularly in the area of CNS/ATM, the manufacturing industry has a key role to play in achieving the ambitions of the SES and SESAR. In the future, network systems and technology will play a greater role than at present. These systems will facilitate a much higher level of integration across the total system, particularly between ground and air components. Success requires the capability of manufacturers to manage and deliver large programmes and competitiveness on the global scale. 24 Two BLUE MED partners are actively involved in the definition of COFLIGHT, a new interoperable FDP, and participate to the Interoperability definition activity in the framework of the EUROCONTROL Progress Information Meetings (PIM). Implementation of minimal interoperability requirements shall coordinate with SESAR short term implementation package.

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2.4.13 Non-EU States

25 26Both the EU and the High Level Group have specifically identified the need of engaging non- EU Member States in the further development of the SES EU aviation system, in order to enlarge the area of application of the SES and to extend the operational benefits. This is a particular relevant issue for the BLUE MED FAB, bordering several non-EU States (in the Balkans, Middle East and North Africa). To this purpose, BLUE MED has actively fostered participation of non- EU neighbouring States (Egypt and Tunisia) to the BLUE MED Feasibility Study, and is open to the participation to the Definition Phase of the neighbouring States27 that are identified as operationally suitable for joining the BLUE MED FAB.

25See the EU Neighbourhood Policy page on http://ec.europa.eu/world/enp/policy_en.htm26 The HLG identifies a priority in finding ways to engage non-EU member States that are members of EUROCONTROL or ECAC as effectively as possible in the further development of the European aviation system. Some non-EU member States are concerned that the integrated nature of the global aviation system, particularly regarding safety, will be damaged by actions to increase the competence of the EU. All want a more systematic dialogue between EU organisations (European Commission and EASA) and the non-EU members of the European aviation system, particularly in the early phases of developing new regulation. 27 The Republic of Albania and the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan have already expressed their request of participating to the BLUE MED definition phase as observer. The BLUE MED Steering Group has welcomed the request, and the participation of the two ANSPs to phase 2 will be planned.

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http://ec.europa.eu/world/enp/policy_en.htm


2.5 BLUE MED Targets The BLUE MED Functional Airspace Block is performance driven. This means that all the identified solutions (operational, technical, etc) shall be evaluated against a specific set of performance indicators in order to provide a clear evidence of the benefits coming from the specific FAB implementation scenarios28.

The performance framework defined in the context of BLUE MED is closely aligned with the work done by SESAR and the Performance Review Unit of EUROCONTROL29.

30The 6 Key Performance Areas (KPAs) considered by BLUE MED are the following :

• Cost Effectiveness • Capacity • Efficiency • Safety • Environmental sustainability • Interoperability

For each KPA one or more quantifiable indicators (Key Performance Indicators - KPIs) have been defined and expressed, either in qualitative or quantitative terms.

The following paragraphs summarise the performance targets set for the BLUE MED Project. The different values provide the percentage of variation of each indicator with respect to a baseline scenario (which considers and encompasses SESAR expected improvements and improvements from other local initiatives) related to the “business as usual” with no FAB implementation at the target date.

28 It is important to notice that the BLUE MED benefits will add on the SESAR expected improvements; therefore the agreed BLUE MED FAB targets, even when apparently displaying lower values than SESAR, shall be read under this perspective 29 ATM COST-EFFECTIVENESS (ACE) 2005, Benchmarking Report, June 2007 and EVALUATION OF FUNCTIONAL AIRSPACE BLOCK (FAB) INITIATIVES AND THEIR CONTRIBUTION TO PERFORMANCE IMPROVEMENT, Interim Report, February 200830 SESAR considers a total of 11 KPIs, 5 of which (Access & Equity, Flexibility, Participation by ATM Community, Predictability and Security) have been considered of difficult evaluation and therefore disregarded by BLUE MED phase 1 metering.

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http://www.eurocontrol.int/prc/gallery/content/public/Docs/ace2005/ace2005.pdf

http://www.eurocontrol.int/prc/gallery/content/public/2008-02-19%20Interim%20Report%20(inc.%20Fact%20Sheets).pdf




2.5.1 Cost Effectiveness 31The following targets have been retained for cost effectiveness :

BLUEMED Target 2015

BLUEMED Target 2020

32- 5 % - 8 % En-route costs - 2 % - 4 % En-route ANS costs per controlled flight-hour - 5 % - 8 % En-route ANS costs per IFR Flight / Segment - 2 % - 4 % ATCO costs per flight-hour - 2 % - 4 % Support costs per flight-hour

En-route flight-hours per total ATCO hours on duty

+ 2,5 % + 2,5 %

En-route IFR Flight / Segments per total ATCO hours on duty

+ 5 % + 5 %

- 2 % Support staff per controlled flight-hour - 3 % Support staff per total ATCOs in OPS

Table 2 – Cost effectiveness targets

31 Costs effectiveness KPI targets have been fixed for the year 2015, which is considered the FAB full implementation date, and for 2020, which is considered the time in which the full benefits from the FAB implementation should be perceived. 32 This and the remaining figures of the table express percentages of variation with respect to the baseline scenario. If, for example, costs are expected to have 30% increase between 2005 and 2015 in the baseline scenario, then a -5% target means that BLUEMED FAB should reduce the cost increase to 23,5% instead of 30%. As a matter of fact a 30% increase implies that 130,00€ (net value) will be spent in 2015 for each 100,00€ spent in 2005. A -5% target requires that the 130,00€ spent in 2015 are reduced by 6,50€ to obtain 123,50€, that is a 23,5% increase with respect to 2005.

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2.5.2 Capacity For the capacity KPA both quantitative (hourly movements) and qualitative (Airspace Design and Civil/Military airspace use capabilities) KPIs are defined, together with the related targets

BLUEMED Target 2015

BLUEMED Target 2020 KPI

33+ 10% + 10 % Hourly movements

Table 3 – Hourly movements KPI

KPI Measures in place Assessment 0-5

Optimised sector structure 5

Optimised route structure 5

Connectivity between lower & upper airspace, with terminal airspace and at FAB boundaries

4

Common rules and procedures 5

Collaborative planning process, including military

5

Airspace Design

Measures in place for capacity management Yes

Safety risk assessment Yes Legend

3 – Contractual co-operation 0 – Not covered by initiative

4 – Integration 1 – Information exchange

5 – Consolidation 2 – Co-ordination of decisions

Table 4 – Airspace Design KPI

33 Again the figures of this table express percentages of variation with respect to the baseline scenario. If, for example, capacity is expected to have 40% increase between 2005 and 2015 in the baseline scenario, then a 10% target means that BLUEMED FAB should increase capacity by 54% instead of 40%.

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Measure in Place Assessment KPI

Minimum scenario

Maximum scenario

Strategic 4 4-5*

Pre-tactical 4 4-5*

Tactical 4 4-5*

Safety risk assessment Yes Yes

Civil/Military Airspace

utilization Legend

0 – Not covered by initiative 3 – Contractual co-operation

1 – Information exchange 4 – Integration

2 – Co-ordination of decisions 5 – Consolidation

*Consolidation will be reached from 2015

Table 5 – Civil/Military Airspace utilization KPI

2.5.3 Efficiency The more significant improvements in terms of flight efficiency will come from an optimisation of the Route Network. For this reason an appropriate KPI is the so-called horizontal flight efficiency, which is related to the difference between the extensions of a route network and corresponding great circle navigation.

The target for this KPI is fixed in +3 %, that means the extension of the proposed BLUE MED route networks may exceed the great circle routes for a maximum of 3 %.

2.5.4 Safety

The aim is that safety benefits obtained from operational and technical improvements will increase at least by a factor of 2.

In more details, two Safety KPAs are proposed for the BLUE MED FAB:

• Reporting levels, as an indication of healthy organisation in terms of safety culture. The corresponding Safety Target has been fixed at “Reporting level to reach 80 % of the assumed reportable total number of occurrences”. The metric (KPI) in this case will be the reported number of incidents.

• SMS development and implementation maturity and level of integration, which is characterised by :

o Maturity Score: the SMS development and the implementation maturity score as

defined for the ESP programme. The target adopted is: “All BLUE MED ANSPs will reach a 80 % maturity score by 2012”.

o Level of integration: it will indicate how efficiently the SMS activities are integrated at FAB level e.g. safety monitoring, safety promotion etc.. The target adopted is related to the number of SMS activities that are planned to be

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integrated eventually. No exact figure has been proposed so far, even though a long term target for the FAB is the definition of a common SMS.

2.5.5 Environmental sustainability The reduction of burnt fuel and corresponding emissions comparing a reference scenario (traffic evolves as planned in accordance with current ARN and routes availability) and the BLUE MED scenario (proposed route network for 2015) has to be at minimum:

Distance flown Fuel CO HC NOx H2O CO2 SO2

34-2,5% -2,5% -5,5% -5,0% -2,5% -2,5% -2,5% -2,5%

Table 6 – Environmental measurements

2.5.6 Interoperability No quantified design target can be defined in the area of interoperability.

From a qualitative point of view, the BLUE MED Member States shall implement the existing interoperability regulations35 gradually leading to enhanced interoperability, while the focus in the Short Term will be placed on the harmonization of procedures leading to FAB-wide seamless operations and to pursue all the activities encompassed for the Virtual Centre concept establishment. .

34 See notes 32 and 33. 35 EC Regulations exists for Coordination and Transfer (REGULATION (EC) No 1032/2006) and Initial flight plan (REGULATION (EC) No 1033/2006)

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http://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/site/en/oj/2006/l_186/l_18620060707en00270045.pdf




2.6 BLUE MED Concept of Operations The BLUE MED FAB will be implemented in order to accommodate the forecast increase in traffic, aircraft diversity, development and operation of unmanned aerial systems, new military requirements and other factors. This will increase the complexity of the airspace and place increasing demands on safety, capacity and efficiency while taking in account cost-effectiveness and environmental and security constraints.

Current operating practices will need to shift towards an integrated and highly collaborative approach to airspace management, improved flexibility and high levels of interoperability, so that any user may plan and operate within the BLUE MED FAB in a seamless manner, as if operating through a single ATM system.

The BLUE MED concept of operation will be based on existing ECAC-wide pan-European objectives and the SES. The concept will also ensure full alignment with the SESAR Mid-term 2013 ATM Target Concept, including measurable performance targets responding to users’ expectations.

2.6.1 Airspace Concept 36The BLUE MED FAB’s airspace configurations will consist of pre-defined routes or flexible

routing options from which users can select and flight plan in accordance with the IFP specifications. The essential component of an airspace configuration will continue to be the ATC sector, whose size could be dynamically modified depending on the airspace configuration in use in order to support variations in the operational requirements (e.g. traffic flows, capacity enhancement or minimizing environmental impact).

37The ATS route network in the BLUE MED area will be aligned with the identified wider-area traffic flows to allow all users to select their preferred routes in the pre-tactical stage. Additional routing options will be established, where necessary, to allow users to bypass Temporary Reserved Airspace or to allow more flexibility in the choice of user preferred routes. ATS routes will be defined by RNAV tracks from a harmonized base level to a harmonized upper level. Uni-directional routes designed to strategically de-conflict traffic and reduce RAD restrictions will become commonplace.

2.6.2 Flexible Use of Airspace, Airspace Management and design Enhanced FUA will be applied in a consistent manner across the FAB in accordance with the SES regulation and implementing rules. Temporary reserved airspaces will be established in accordance with user requirements, however they will be activated and de-activated more efficiently. The route network will be managed in a seamless and integrated manner through a

36 Even if he BLUE MED Feasibility study did not consider TMAs, it is anticipated that the TMA airspace will be organised so that the en-route system will connect to fixed entry/arrival and exit/departures gates for each runway (at the main international aerodromes) and will facilitate the introduction of CDAs. The requirements and capabilities of the major TMAs will be integrated into the design of the airspace configurations. Definition of TMA airspace will be part of the project definition phase, accordingly with relevant SES package II requirements. 37 There will be a common division level between upper and lower airspace and a common upper flight level for Class C airspace. The designation of ATS routes (U prefix) will be harmonised accordingly. At or below FL 195 there will be a uniform application of the rules associated with the 7 ICAO airspace classes. Any supplemental rules to the 7 ICAO airspace classes, necessary to meet specific operational and safety requirements will be applied in a standard manner.

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collaborative and cooperative approach (e.g by integrating airspace design and flow management functions) taking into account the requirements of both civil and military users.

In order to improve the strategic design, planning and management of the route structure to a level which minimizes tactical re-routings by ATC, AMCs will operate in an integrated manner with the national/regional ATFCM and airspace design functions. Airspace management (ASM) will be conducted in an equal partnership between civil and military, resulting in a more efficient use of the available airspace through accurate data dissemination, also addressing national military requirements and military operations over the high-seas.

There will be a common application of procedures for the operation of Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) and moving airspace reservations (for air refuelling or large formations of aircraft transiting through airspace)

2.6.3 Interoperability of ATM systems The BLUE MED ANSPs will operate from different ACCs with systems which achieve a high-level of interoperability, meeting requirements of the SES regulations and their implementing rules and acting as if they were inter-connected and operating as a single system. This is the Virtual Centre concept, integrating ACCs that are only physically remote in order to solve the existing operational shortages, in particular those related to the inter-FIR transfer of control.

38Improved ground-to-ground communication, optimized (possibly multi-sensor ) surveillance network and an increased interoperability between relevant SDP and FDP systems39 shall be the main factors enabling the BLUE MED FAB to perform seamless operations and supporting the maximum flexibility in the airspace utilization.

2.6.4 Safety and Quality

Safety has the highest priority for service provision within the FAB. Any changes to the ATM system of the BLUE MED FAB shall be subject to the safety requirements and assessment/ oversight processes in accordance with the SES regulations and national rules.

Safety will not be managed in isolation but will be considered as an element of the overall quality of the service. A quality management system for the FAB shall be created, whereby, in addition to safety, other key performance indicators will be defined and monitored so that the level of services provided are maintained and where possible improved.

2.6.5 Environment

Environment impact reduction is a key issue within the FAB. Even if ATM in itself shall not be considered the principal source of environmental threats, the BLUE MED FAB will implement the optimisation of route networks and operational procedures in order to contribute with substantial benefits in terms of emissions savings. The environmental impact of the BLUE MED services will be assessed and compared with the current situation so as to ensure that the FAB establishment will provide the expected positive effect. 38 The CRISTAL MED project, performed by DCAC, ENAV, HCAA and MATS in cooperation with the EUROCONTROL CASCADE programme is currently preparing the deployment of an ADS-B surveillance network in the BLUE MED area. 39 Possible common strategies for definition and deployment of new/modified CNS/ATM infrastructure and procedures between the partners (common procurement) will also provide benefits in terms of overall harmonization and cost saving.

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2.6.6 Security The security of services within BLUE MED will be managed systematically in accordance with the SES and national regulations.

2.6.7 AIS An integrated and in the long term consolidated approach to the collection and distribution of aeronautical information will be encouraged and a netcentric provision in which timely and reliable data is made available regularly and dynamically for use in different applications will be promoted.

2.6.8 Human Resources The Human element is an essential ingredient of any ATM system and will be duly considered, so that the implementation of the FAB brings benefit to staff, or, at least, does not have a negative impact. In particular, job security will be safeguarded and social effects minimised. At the same time, labour mobility will be facilitated to the maximum extent, aligned with European Commission policies and directives.40

40 Technical changes will be consistent with human factors principles (ergonomic, easy of use etc.), so that the impact to the work environment is minimal.

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2.7 BLUE MED Improvements

2.7.1 Operational improvements The BLUE MED FAB is expected to deliver potential benefits thanks to the reorganisation of the airspace structure in the area and to the harmonisation of operational procedures. An airspace structure and an optimised route network designed at the regional scale should deliver better efficiency to the Aircraft Operators and reduce the workload on ATC. This should result in savings in terms of mileage, fuel, flight time and CO2 emissions and could increase ATC capacity.

The BLUE MED operational working group developed a proposal for a revised ATS network for the year 2015, built on the principle of offering of direct tracks that have the potential to increase flight efficiency.

41The Advanced Airspace Scheme (AAS) was used as a baseline. Building on it, the BLUE MED operational working group developed a methodology to define the ideal traffic flows, developed the supporting routes and (when they did not exist in AAS) added them to the BLUE MED network.

The Analysis of the BLUE MED 2015 network indicated that there would be significant savings to be made in terms of route length reduction, fuel and CO2 emissions, which will be analysed further below.

An illustration of the proposed ATS route network for the BLUE MED region is shown below with the new alignments bordered by the blue and green lines42.

41 The Advanced Airspace Scheme (AAS) is a route network design under development within the Route Network Development Sub-Group (RNDSG) of EUROCONTROL’s Airspace and Navigation Team (ANT). The RNDSG has been mandated by ICAO to ‘organise and carry out the necessary coordination of planning and implementation activities for improving and upgrading the ATS route network in the ECAC area’. One peculiar aspect of the AAS is that it represents an ‘ideal target’ ATS route network for the ECAC region, based on traffic demand only and without considering geopolitical constraints. As such it represents a network structure that responds to the AOs requirement for better flight efficiency. Another advantage of the use of AAS was that this scheme has been developed at an ECAC scale, and therefore each ATS route has been designed with connections to TMAs and other routes in the whole network. This meant that the compatibility with areas outside BLUE MED could be better ensured than with the adoption of an independently designed new network. Finally, the use of AAS route network was suggested by the knowledge that other FAB initiatives were using it as a reference in their similar and contemporary studies, which could improve compatibility of final results. 42 The lines’ colours correspond to the parity of the proposed route.

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Figure 4 - 2015 network (AAS enhanced by BLUE MED proposals)

2.7.1.1 Route length (extension) benefits

43In order to assess Route Extension reduction due to the BLUE MED FAB, a comparison was made on the total distance flown on three separate networks44 and on a the 3 day period (3 days of summer peak traffic samples boosted to 2015 levels).

The assignment of the traffic was made on the shortest path, so to represent the maximum potential of each of the ATS route networks45. On all networks used in the assignment the CDR route segments were considered to be available for GAT.

43 Route Extension of a flight is the difference between the actual distance flown along the Route Network and the theoretical Great Circle distance. 44 The three analysed network were the Version Short Term (VST), a network structure maintained by EUROCONTROL which represents the current airspace routes network with the addition of already agreed improvements (up to 1 year in the future), the AAS network and the BLUE MED 2015 network (AAS + BLUE MED ATS route proposals). 45 The methodology assumes all flights always take the shortest path available and shows the smallest total distance that could be flown This differs from the reality in which the traffic distribution is affected by many variable influences (e.g. unit rate, winds, industrial action, delay etc.). The calculation of route extension was made by comparing the direct line between the TMA exit point and TMA entry point with the shortest available route.

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The following table summarises the main results of the study:

Network

BLUE MED 2015 VST AAS proposals

Theoretical extension as a 3,87,% 3,08,% 2,90,% %, ECAC

wide

Total length expressed as 74.335.950,93 74.201.083,72 74.031.447,14

NMs Table 7 – Extension calculation (3 days of traffic)

The results show that the VST network has the potential to limit the theoretical total route extension to 3,87%.,

The adoption of the AAS network, which includes a number of additional route proposals ECAC wide, enhanced by the optimisations for the BLUE MED area potentially diminish the overall route extension to 2,9%, with a gain of 0,97%. Over the 3 days, the potential fuel saving, at the ECAC level, between the VST and BLUE MED 2015 networks was measured in 2.907 Tons. This would represent a cost saving of approx 1.5M€46over the 3 days, which could be extrapolated to represent an average summer month (30 days) potential saving of approx 14.5 M€47 million.

2.7.1.2 Fuel/Environmental benefits

The potential fuel savings that can be attributed to the addition of the BLUE MED 2015 ATS route network were equal to 1.058,6 tonnes for the 3 day period, equivalent to a reduction of 3.333,87 tonnes of CO2 that would not be released into the atmosphere (comparison between AAS and BLUE MED 2015 network).

2.7.1.3 Capacity and delays benefits

It is expected that one of the main operational benefits of the FAB will be the enhancement of capacity. This will be possible through a redesign of ATC sectors in order to better accommodate the traffic flows, thus removing unnecessary constraints (vertical and lateral) imposed to ensure conflict resolution, sector avoidance and delineation along FIR boundaries.

46 Using the September 2007 price for fuel. 47 These savings result from the combination of the improvements foreseen in AAS and BLUE MED.

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It should be noticed that despite the fact that a complete redesign of sectorisation was outside the scope48 49 of this first phase of the BLUE MED project, some assessments were made on the impact of the optimised BLUE MED route network on capacity that indicates a 2% capacity increase. This comes only as a result of the route network re-design and does not take into consideration that adapted sectorisation will need to be put in place. This adapted sectorisation is expected to brig additional capacity benefit.

Although at this point in time, a precise evaluation of the capacity increase was not possible, expert evaluations were made on the potential capacity increase as a result of the BLUE MED implementation (including the new BLUE MED operational concept, potential from route network improvements and future re-sectorisation, harmonisation of procedures, enhanced system support, etc.).

The capacity and delays benefits were assessed against a “Do nothing” scenario, i.e. a scenario where the BLUE MED FAB and its associated improvements will not be implemented.

For the “Do nothing” scenario the following hypothesis were used:

• The current capacity plans (as identified in the LCIPs 2008-2012);

• For the period 2012-2015 an extrapolation of the current plans was made adding an yearly increase of 3-5% per ACC, depending on the enhancements that were foreseen at each individual ACC.

For the “BLUE MED” scenario the following hypothesis were used:

• In addition and, as a result of the FAB implementation, the following capacity increases were added on top of the “Do nothing” hypothesis:

o an additional 1% per year for each ACC resulting from early FAB benefits for the period 2009-2012

o an additional 2% per year for each ACC resulting from full FAB benefits for the period 2013-2015.

The delays forecast for the 2015 time horizon shows a global delay of 0.1 minute/flight for both the ”Do Nothing” and the BLUE MED Scenario. Nevertheless, the significant benefit is that in the “Do nothing” Scenario flight were routed on the 2007 routeings used across the network while, in the BLUE MED Scenario, all flight were routed on the shortest available route on the BLUE MED route network. That indicates a continuously good capacity/delay performance associated with significant flight efficiency benefits.

These early findings seem to indicate that BLUE MED proposed improvements should generate enough capacity increase to accommodate future traffic requests while contributing to the achievement of the European en-route delay target of 1 minute/flight. Even if this shall be

48 FAB Capacity evaluation requires the complete definition of the FAB airspace (Route Network and Sectorisation). Full re-sectorisation will be studied only in BLUE MED Definition Phase, and therefore the precise impact on capacity will only be evaluated then. 49 The impact of the new FAB network on the capacity and delays was studied through the EUROCONTROL COCA methodology, taking into account the complexity induced by the new network and the traffic growth according to the STATFOR hypothesis (agreed target time 2015). The methodology, validated and extensively used in PRU and other major complexity studies, allowed the working group to assess gains in terms of FAB capacity. Following the capacities estimation, some fast-time simulations have been performed in order to assess the delays using the same hypothesis in the same time horizon.

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confirmed by further analysis in phase 2, operational experience has showed that by removing artificial constraints and simplifying the task for the controller, sector capacity will increase.

In addition the development of sectors capable of more flexible use (changing configuration) and adaptable to the traffic demand will allow resources to be allocated precisely where they are needed.

2.7.1.4 Sector Family assessment

In order to identify a better way of designing the BLUE MED FAB airspace, a high level study was performed to identify the most promising Sector Families, in accordance with the EUROCONTROL methodology50 for FAB design.

It should be noted that the Sector Families were analysed at high level, mostly to provide indications to the process and the potential for re-design to be adopted in phase 2. They represent a possible solution but should not be regarded as a definite proposal since the process, after the current feasibility stage and the foreseen political decision, shall engage into an extensive validation activity and improved involvement of military authorities in the further BLUE MED phase. To this respect, further work will be required during the definition phase to refine the sector family definition once all civil-military requirements are validated.

Nevertheless, the Sector Family analysis which was conducted conveyed a series of considerations that are worth to be noted and tackled in the Definition Phase.

As an example, the chart below shows one of the several options developed by the working group.

50 The EUROCONTROL method proceeds to the identification of high complexity areas to pinpoint volumes of airspace that are closely linked through the interchange of traffic. These volumes shall ideally be placed within a unique Sector Family to simplify coordination. Beyond the areas of high complexity, areas of low interaction can be identified and these are generally where the volume of traffic is low or where traffic is in level flight and free from crossing or merging points. The EUROCONTROL method proposes that the delineation of the sector families shall coincide with areas of low interaction as this would cause the least disruption to the flight profiles.

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Figure 5 - Chart showing one potential option for the sector family delineation

Regarding the internal sector boundaries, the investigation into the sector families has shown that there is potential for some adaptations within BLUE MED.

Regarding the external boundaries it should be noted that they do not differ significantly from the situation today51, although there are areas where an alignment on operational requirements would require significantly different adjustments.

In particular the traffic flows over the Adriatic might be better managed within a sector family that also encompasses the strong interaction with Bolzano area traffic.

Also the area over Corsica, with its significant North/South traffic flows, might require further analysis.

Regarding the interaction with the neighbouring FABs initiatives, BLUE MED is fully aware of the necessity of optimising the operational solutions in the future by taking in account external operational requirements. To this purpose the BLUE MED project is proactively supporting inter FABs coordination activities52.

Finally, BLUE MED fully supports the extension of the SES to non EU neighbouring countries in accordance with operational opportunities. Building on the experience of excellent

51 A conservative approach was adopted in this first phase of the project, to limit the modifications of the external boundaries of the FAB, due to political constraints and the need to further involve Military and neighbouring States as prerequisite for a more comprehensive approach. These issues will be tackled in phase 2. 52 BLUE MED is an active participant to the EUROCONTROL PIM (an informal Progress Information Meeting on FABs initiatives) and has also officially requested the EC to put in place a more formal coordination mechanism.

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cooperation with Tunisia and Egypt, the BLUE MED project will develop in the Definition phase appropriate means of involvement53 54 of other relevant States .

2.7.2 Environmental improvements Even if ATM in itself shall not be considered the principal source of environmental threats, the optimisation of route networks and operational procedures due to FABs are expected to contribute with substantial benefits in terms of emissions savings55.

56In order to assess the environmental benefits of the BLUE MED FAB, an in-depth analysis has been performed using the forecast traffic demand “boosted” to 2015 levels, comparing the reference57 scenario with the BLUE MED improved network.

The following tables show the results obtained:

Reference

Distance(km) Fuel (kg) CO(kg) HC(kg) NOx(kg) H2O(kg) CO2(kg) SO2(kg) 17.693.000 74.022.107 371.025 38.412 636.383 91.047.192 233.095.616 62.179

BLUE MED 2015

Distance(km) Fuel (kg) CO(kg) HC(kg) NOx(kg) H2O(kg) CO2(kg) SO2(kg) 17.257.238 71.979.811 349.530 36.370 621.027 88.535.168 226.664.425 60.463

BLUE MED 2015 vs Reference

Distance Fuel CO HC NOx H2O CO2 SO2

-2,5% -2,8% -5,8% -5,3% -2,4% -2,8% -2,8% -2,8%

Table 8 – Emission comparison – BLUE MED 2015 vs. Reference

The results indicate that with the introduction of the BLUE MED 2015 network all the major pollutants will be noticeably reduced with respect to the reference scenario, in line with the

53 Non EU neighbouring States involvement, which will be guided by sound operational considerations, could take the form of full participation to the BLUE MED FAB or participation to the BLUE MED project as observers. 54 Relevant States could include Balkan States boarding the Adriatic costs and EMAC States. A particular attention shall be given to Libya, currently a country which, operationally, constitutes a natural candidate for the participation in the BLUE MED FAB. 55 The use of appropriate ATM procedures, typical of FAB operations (i.e. direct and shorter routes), could contribute to reduce of about 6-10% the total CO2 emissions. 56 It shall be noted that the emission analysis has considered only the horizontal evolution of the traffic. Yet the vertical profile of flights has not been taken into account as the enhancement of the network did not cover that aspect or proposed improvements to the initial and/or final phases of flights (e.g. redesign of SIDs and STARs). 57 Reference traffic evolves as planned in accordance with current ARN and routes availability (RAD).

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agreed BLUE MED targets (see section 2.5.5). Regarding the CO2 emissions, a significant 2.8% reduction can be observed58.

59Finally a single flight comparison (LIMC LGAV) is presented which emphasise even more the emissions benefit due to an enhanced network.

Reference

Distance(km) Fuel (kg) CO(kg) HC(kg) H2O(kg) CO2(kg) SO2(kg) NOx(kg)1.692,70 5.587,8 29,03 0,67 44,25 6.873 17.596 4,7

BLUE MED 2015

Distance(km) Fuel (kg) CO(kg) HC(kg) H2O(kg) CO2(kg) SO2(kg) NOx(kg)1.587,13 5.210,4 27,07 0,62 41,26 6.408,8 16.407,6 4,38

BLUE MED 2015 vs Reference

Distance Fuel CO HC NOx H2O CO2 SO2

-6,2% -6,8% -6,8% -6,8% -6,8% -6,8% -6,8% -6,8%

Table 9–Emission Comparison – LIMC LGAV

2.7.3 Technical improvements The interoperability analysis performed in the context of the Feasibility Study has led to the definition of the high level technical requirements for ensuring interoperability at ATSU-ATSU level within the FAB.

60A description of the current CNS/ATM infrastructures has been performed , per each ANSP involved in the BLUE MED area.

Where possible, two different interoperability scenarios have been identified for the FAB: a Minimum Scenario (an initial, low cost implementation of ATSU-ATSU interoperability) and a Maximum Scenario (a more complete and cost-effective implementation of ATSU-ATSU Interoperability).

The minimum scenario ensures the level of interoperability which is deemed sufficient for Virtual Centre and FAB operations and would be feasible through limited modifications of the

58 ACARE has stated that ATM would be able to reduce CO2 emissions of 5 to 10% by the year 2020. The result achieved here is anyway significant since the saving is only due to the optimisation of the horizontal flight extension.flights routes. 59 The chosen flight is a Milano Malpensa (LIMC) to Athens (LGAV) operated by a B737-400 aircraft. 60 All aspects related to interoperability and what is already in current national implementation plans (LCIPs, where available), and CNS/ATM strategies (intermediate improvements) were investigated. The current scenario description has been captured by collecting filled-in questionnaires by each ANSP.

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61system . The maximum scenario would be achieved through more extensive technical

improvements, such as the adoption of a unique common new generation FDP system, based on the Flight Object, and other tools and functionalities ensuring consistency of trajectory information and univocal data sharing within the whole BLUE MED FAB area.

The description of the current scenario allowed determining the interoperability gap in the aggregation of systems. In particular it has been identified what, among the systems62 concerned within the BLUE MED area and taking into account the gap, should be developed to implement63 the BLUE MED FAB, also providing a high-level roadmap for implementation.

BLUE MED will plan and manage its transition from the Min to the Max scenario gradually, as SESAR matures; to this purpose a detailed roadmap will be defined in the Definition Phase, in order to plan for a complete alignment with SESAR.

2.7.4 Safety improvements Safety improvement can only be verified during the post-implementation period of a system; therefore, at this stage of the project, improvements were expressed in terms of expectations and not quantified. As part of the safety considerations exercise performed between the partners it was determined that safety improvements can be expected through

o the implementation of a new route network with de-conflicted routes

o sector re-design (independent of national constraints) so as to place sector boundaries in areas of low complexity

o the use of technology to automate ATC functions normally linked to human errors (e.g. co-ordination)

o sharing of data to improve ATM functions (e.g. surveillance)

o harmonisation of ATC procedures so as to reduce likelihood of errors and enable better handling of contingencies

o common training to enhance ATCO to ATCO cross-border interaction and cooperation

61 Modifications include the implementation of SYSCO level I concept and some additional functionalities envisaged for level II of SYSCO, such as the ACI facility, Environmental data processing, High definition interactive display and input devices. 62 The Feasibility Study focused mainly on ATC and the role of Air Traffic controllers. Other domains will require a deeper analysis at FAB level such as ATFCM, Operational and Technical Supervision and ATC Tools; other domains were assessed not relevant from a FAB interoperability point of view but could be impacted by improved FAB operations (e.g. Navigation – interesting to see how to share costs, maintenance etc.; no need to establish “link” between systems). 63 The implementation of the BLUE MED FAB could be based on a combination of both minimum and maximum scenarios applicable for subsets of ANSPs, chosen in order to define the future aggregation of systems. On the basis of the High Level Economic Appraisal outcomes and on the recommendations of the legal, social, safety and operational analysis, within the Definition Phase it will be possible to decide the route to pursue, and shall be followed the proper balance between each scenario

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2.7.5 Legal issues

64The Feasibility Study provided a rough assessment of legal and institutional issues relevant for a FAB in the light of the present legal and institutional situation related to the provision of air navigation services in the BLUE MED States. On the basis of the assessment it appears that there are no evident legal impediments to the establishment of a FAB in the airspace under the responsibility of the BLUE MED States, its establishment being therefore legally feasible. Nevertheless, the complexity of the legal issues involved implies a degree of uncertainty as to the legal consequences of establishment of a FAB on States’ rights and responsibilities, which needs to be solved, through the FAB Agreements to be produced in the Definition Phase of the project, to allow the States to proceed with the creation of a BLUE MED FAB. Finally, while the feasibility of the BLUE MED FAB is facilitated by the fact that Italy, Malta, Greece and Cyprus are Member States of the European Union, an additional factor of legal uncertainty regard the modality of involvement of Tunisia and Egypt, which are neither Member States of the European Union nor of EUROCONTROL. Apparently, even though these countries have no obligation towards SES, they could profit of their role in a FAB initiative in order to define bilateral agreements with neighbouring EU countries. These agreements should be intended in the SES direction, thus improving level of SES implementation in the area. The following points have been identified to be further investigated within the Definition phase, with an improved involvement of State/CAAs authorities and experts:

o Legal Areas related with national situation: a number of legal areas will require further investigation as regards the existing national legal situation in the BLUE MED States. These are first of all those areas of law where a need for harmonisation of rules has been identified in this Feasibility stage. In order to achieve harmonisation, an in-depth examination of existing rules, with experts from States playing a major role, is necessary. Secondly, there are legal areas which must be examined in detail in order to enable closer cooperation and coordination between the States. Thirdly, in order to create legal provisions governing the FAB as such (e.g. the FAB Agreement), it will be necessary to first identify what the current legal situation is in detail from the State expert’s perspective, taking profit from the initial assessment performed by ANSPs within this feasibility stage. These areas are:

• Liability/insurance regime related to provision of ANS/military air traffic; • Legal/institutional structure of national military arrangements, of national

civil/military coordination; • Details of ASM rules; FUA; • National legal framework for provision of SAR; • Implementation of EU Directives 94/56 (Accident/incident Investigation)

and 2003/42 (Occurrence Reporting); current national legal environment relevant for implementation of the concept of ‘Just Culture’;

• Rules and procedures related to designation of ATSPs;

64 The assessment was based on the information on national legal situations that was gathered between June and October 2007.

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• Institutional setup of NSAs and rules related to the exercise of their

functions; application of EC Regulation 1315/2007 (Safety Oversight in ATM);

• Details of implementation of ESARR 5/EC Directive 2006/23 (Community ATCO Licence);

• Operational rules and procedures.

o Legal instruments: The development of concrete proposals for harmonisation of national rules, necessary legal instruments, terms of reference of entities to be established for the governance and management of the FAB, was outside the scope of this study. However, the work programme for the Definition Phase will – to a large extent – consist of the drafting of legal text. The following legal instruments will have to be developed as a minimum:

65• FAB Agreement at State level (States): an overall agreement between the States that want to establish a FAB.

• Joint Designation instrument (States) • NSA Agreement (States/NSAs) • ANSP Cooperation Agreement(s) (ANSPs) • Article 10 SPR Agreement(s) (ANSPs, possibly NSAs) • ‘Terms of Reference’ of FAB Governing Body • ‘Terms of Reference’ of joint civil-military airspace body (including

sub-bodies)

o Involvement of States: as indicated from the list of necessary legal instruments, the involvement of States in the legal work to be conducted in a Definition Phase is of paramount importance. Representation of States should be provided from the relevant ministries (transport, defence, foreign affairs, possibly interior). Full involvement of the NSAs at all stages should be ensured as well as full involvement and expertise of the military authorities.

2.7.6 Human resources issues

The competence, qualification, expertise and skills of staff are key factors for an effective transition towards the future BLUE MED FAB Virtual Centre operations and the achievement of the operational targets for potential benefits. Involvement and participation of staff66 are indispensable pre-requisite for finding best solutions, to positive support, motivation and commitment to learn and to perform. All these qualities shall be preserved and enhanced throughout the FAB definition and implementation processes.

In a FAB Virtual Centre operational environment, operational staff will continue to perform the same tasks when managing and controlling air traffic, from within their current working

65 According to the ASR, a FAB shall only be established by mutual agreement between the States who have responsibility for the airspace included in the block. This legal instrument is therefore en essential prerequisite for FAB establishment. 66 Staff shall be well informed and involved in the FAB Definition phase in a participative way.

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environment and teams. Training will be harmonised, if not common, in compliance with the already existing regulatory requirements67 and principles.

Evolution and adaptation of the current operational concepts and procedures by all partner ANSPs of the Virtual Centre will be required so as to ensure seamless operations in the BLUE MED area. Controllers and technical staff will need to be adequately trained and qualified in the interoperable technological and operational enablers that will support the operational requirement within this ‘virtual, highly interoperable as if one-centre’ organisation. This will also require the implementation of new or additional unit endorsements in the individual Air Traffic Controller Licence.

The initial assessment of the impact of a future Virtual Centre shows that the harmonisation of the operational requirements within BLUE MED will necessitate organisational adaptations to manage and ensure the overall consistency and application of the operational procedures within the entire FAB. This means from a staffing perspective that at least initially the future FAB organisation and operation may need additional staff compared to today. From the perspective of qualification this means that a wider array of qualifications and competencies of staff will be required. It is important that the organisational adaptations and additional structures will not add to the fragmentation of the ATM system, but to the contrary, will lead to FAB wide seamless operations.

Adequate representation of staff in the following phases of the project is paramount for the FAB success.

67 Existing ICAO, EUROCONTROL and common European regulatory requirements and their future improvements will be considered.

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2.8 BLUE MED Financial Considerations

2.8.1 Air Navigation Service Charges The BLUE MED Feasibility study also evaluates benefits and drawbacks for ANSPs and users of alternative air navigation service charge schemes and associated redistribution policies to be applied to the BLUE MED FAB. The analysis complies with EC Regulation 1794/2006 laying down a common charging scheme for air navigation services. It unfolds in accordance with the following assumptions: (i) en route charges only are analysed; terminal charges (and “terminal charging zones”) will be addressed within the BLUE MED Definition Phase, (ii) the full cost recovery mechanism always holds as all en route costs for ANS regulatory and supervisory functions are fully recovered from the airspace users in all BLUE MED countries, (iii) the airspace considered is from ground (GND) to unlimited (UNL) in the whole BLUE MED area, and (iv) due to data availability, ECAC countries only are considered. Two charging policies have been examined: (i) National Cost Base (NCB), i.e., one en route unit rate per State; this option builds along the current situation in all BLUE MED countries, and (ii) Single Unit Rate in all FAB airspace (SUR), i.e., one single en route unit rate for the whole BLUE MED airspace; both options are compliant with the current SES regulation.

The study follows other analyses performed within this BLUE MED Feasibility Study and its findings show that the BLUE MED FAB will be beneficial for the area as early as 2015. In particular, from a charging scheme perspective68 no major issues or impediments exist for the establishment of the BLUE MED FAB within the Mediterranean area, as far as countries belonging to the ECAC area are concerned.

Starting from an available traffic and cost base (no-FAB case) the study proves that the BLUE MED FAB is going to substantially reduce the national en route unit rates up to 20 % (considering the most optimistic traffic forecasts) in 2015. These figures are going to improve when we consider FAB effects on the cost base from 2015 onwards. If we assume a possible reduction of en-route unit costs up to 2 % or 5 % per year, the national en route unit rates are likely to experience a further reduction up to 20% - see Table 10..

2015 vs 2006 2020 vs 2015

BM_NCB -5 % to -20 % -10 % to -20%

Table 10 - BLUE MED National Unit rate variation (case of the more optimistic traffic forecast)

Moreover, since the network configuration provided by the BLUE MED Operational Analysis has to be considered as the best possible case for the area from the users’ perspective, it is remarkable that the theoretical single unit rate identified for the BLUE MED FAB in 2015 is not going to be higher but substantially lower than the one identified if the FAB had been established

68 At this Feasibility stage the aim of the study is to provide information on flexibility of the existing charging mechanism for a future FAB and possible future schemes for charging. Hence, charging arrangements for the en-route part of the FAB will be further validated and agreed within the following BLUE MED Phase, as well as assumptions done at the Feasibility Study level and extension of the scheme to the Terminal Area airspace.

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69in 2006 , especially when considering FAB effects in 2020. If we assume a possible reduction

of en-route unit costs up to 2 % or 5 % per year, these effects can be easily translated into a reduction of respectively 1,0 € and 2,5 € per year of the single unit rate from 2015 to 2020.

However, some results of this analysis show that there might be users and ANSPs affected (higher en-route charges and, respectively, less “attractive” areas of operation), if a single unit rate is established in the FAB.

Hence the issue of recovery and redistribution policy has to be addressed substantially in the BLUE MED Definition Phase in view of identifying fair and satisfactory solutions to all stakeholders that might suffer from a negative impact of a single unit rate. In this context, the use of specific incentives, as foreseen within the SES2 plans, is supposed to be beneficial and will be adequately addressed and investigated within the following Definition Phase.

2.8.2 High Level Economical Assessment The economical assessment aimed to provide some indicative figures about the potential cost savings and more general benefits that could be obtained by reducing fragmentation in the BLUE MED area.

The study was conducted as follows: first, the main causes of fragmentation in the BLUE MED area were analysed; then, the expected consequences of BLUE MED implementation were compared with a baseline scenario encompassing the expected evolution of the services provided by the national ANSPs in case the BLUE MED FAB were not implemented and expected SESAR effects until 2020.

Data for this economical assessment were collected by questionnaires and interviews with civil and military authorities of the BLUE MED countries, with personnel from EUROCONTROL and by accessing EUROCONTROL documentation (e.g., PRC, STATFOR). Data have been processed by simulations and spreadsheet models, and finally they have been validated by expert judgments of the different ANSPs.

70The results of the performed HLEA clearly indicate that the BLUE MED FAB will bring benefits to both users and ANSPs, satisfying, both in terms of time and costs, the expectations for increased capacity for the assessed period (2010-2020)71. 69 The single unit rate in 2006 has been calculated by means of an analysis based on actual data of traffic provided by EUROCONTROL CRCO and CFMU. In particular, the Flight Plan of each flight passed through the BLUE MED airspace in three specific weeks of year 2006 is available along with its corresponding Distance and Weight Factors. Holding the full cost recovery principle, we assumed that for each week the en route costs of an ANSP are equal to the revenues collected by it through en route charges during that week. Hence we could compute the overall BLUE MED en route costs for these three weeks. Then such costs have been divided by the overall number of service units flown in the BLUE MED area during these three weeks. 70 Data reported in this section must be considered as indicative. Time constraints have prevented, for example, from producing a detailed re-sectorisation, from running model based and large scale real time simulations, and from redefining common ATM procedures. A detailed cost-benefit analysis will be performed as planned in the following definition phase. 71 Even if it is not always easy to differentiate between what could be implemented through ad-hoc bilateral agreements between States, and what will be enabled by FAB agreement only, it could be acknowledged that the BLUE MED FAB, which is framed within a regional context, will provide a stable process and a prompt answer to all regional needs and will foster and accelerate all the improvement measures and all the potential benefits that could also be captured, in a smaller scale, without the FAB by the means of ad-hoc bilateral agreements.

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2.8.2.1 Fragmentation in the BLUE MED area

The main causes of fragmentation in the BLUE MED area are analysed in the following paragraph, and for each of the issues pointed out as a major factor of fragmentation, a specific answer and possible solution for BLUE MED is presented.

These answers have been translated into economic evaluations for the BLUE MED FAB and will be further pursued in the upcoming Definition Phase of the project. 72:

COMMON ISSUES

• Piecemeal procurement (mainly ATM systems). There is scope for reducing costs by adopting common procurement specifications across BLUE MED ANSPs. As one of the central points of the BLUE MED project is interoperability of ATM/CNS systems, further saving may come from the reduced need for adaptation of systems with common designs. A common procurement function is planned within the BLUE MED roadmap.

• Sub-optimal scale in maintenance and in-service development (mainly CNS): the expected gain in this area from an FAB optimisation process can be less than the expected as an ECAC average. In fact ENAV (one of the largest five ANSPs within the ECAC countries and the largest in the BLUE MED FAB) already has some degree of centralised maintenance of CNS infrastructure. For the remaining, possibly, Cyprus and Malta may have above average73 cost reductions, but in any case, small in absolute terms.

• Fragmented planning: to date, planning for the acquisition and deployment of new systems has been uncoordinated and fragmented within the FAB (with the noticeable exception of the CRISTAL-MED74 project, the Memorandum of Cooperation between ENAV and MATS and ENAV and OACA to perform common R&D). As a result, a certain degree of unsynchronised or inconsistent technological change exists within the FAB75. Taking into account that the average life of systems used by the ATM and CNS providers spans over at least a decade, it appears that substantial benefits could be experienced in the medium term, but the possible FAB-wide savings in procurement will only materialise in the long term.

72 All the issues collected are enclosed in the report “The impact of fragmentation in the European ATM/CNS – (Helios Economics and Policy Services, April 2006)”, and in analogy with this report only ECAC countries have been considered. Therefore, if not otherwise stated, only Cyprus, Italy, Greece, and Malta have been analysed within the study. 73 For ECAC ANSPs, the Fragmentation Report assumed an average potential cost reduction of 5 - 7 %. 74 CRYSTAL-MED, a CASCADE coordinated project, stems from the common experience on ADS-B acquired by some of the BLUE MED ANSPs (ENAV, HCAA and MATS) during the Mediterranean Free Flight Project, and aims to the installation of an ADS-B 1090 ES surveillance network over the Mediterranean Area. 75 As an example, DCAC is presently accepting a brand new and advanced ATM system, which makes a short term purchase of a new system by the Cyprus’ ANSP highly improbable.

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http://www.eurocontrol.int/prc/gallery/content/public/Docs/fragmentation.pdf



ACCs

• ACC consolidation: This fragmentation reduction measure was pursued in BLUE MED Phase 1 from the point of view of a virtual rather than a physical consolidation. Therefore, the “virtual ACC” concept was adopted, whereby consolidation refers to the technical and procedural elements of an ATM system rather than location, buildings and infrastructure. This concept was examined in the feasibility study and was shown to be cost effective. It will be elaborated further in the subsequent phases of the project, taking care that any solution proposed will meet future traffic demands.

• Economies of Scale in ACCs (operating and capital costs): With the exclusion of the Rome ACC (which already includes the upper sectors of Milano ACC), all others ACCs have less than 25 sectors76. Anyway, many issues should be considered when evaluating the current ACC fragmentation of the BLUE MED:

o Even if the number of sectors provides a rough indication of an ideal size for ACCs in the FAB, other quantitative measures should be taken into account, such as dimension of the controlled airspace. In fact, the same geographical nature of the Mediterranean area (including large portion of open sea between the involved countries), generates ACCs more distantly located than the equivalent in continental Europe. With some possible exception, transporting data from distantly located surveillance means as well as relocating staff to physically far destinations could prove either challenging or economically unjustified.

o In the case of Cyprus and Malta, the local ACC is the only ATM infrastructure within the respective States. Assuming that each country wants at least to maintain an ATM infrastructure to control locally the lower airspace, it appears that the two ACCs would not be consolidated even in the case of a common upper airspace.

o A certain degree of de-fragmentation has already happened in Italy, with the transfer of control of the Upper Milano Sectors to the Rome ACC. Currently, the Milano ACC should be considered as managing exclusively a high complexity terminal area.

o Projections of raising demand indicate the need to provide substantial augmentation of capacity that will impact the BLUE MED ANSPs in the near future. This is particularly true for traffic flows that are today capped by politically generated limitations, which could be expected to disappear in the next years.77 This will most probably require the augmentation of sectors numbers in the different ACCs.

• Constrained sector design (flight efficiency benefits): Fragmentation of ACCs has an impact in terms of loss of flight-efficiency as airspace and route design is organised in a fragmented way. This issue occurs also in the BLUE MED area, and despite the fact that a complete, optimized FAB sectorisation has not been part of this feasibility study,

76 “25” represent the average sector number per ACC suggested in Fragmentation Report as a possible target of de-fragmentation. 77 For example, the reopening of the Kosovo airspace, with its impact on the Adriatic traffic flow in particular interesting Greece and Cyprus, or the creation of popular tourist resorts in Libya, which will have a substantial impact on the Italian and Maltese airspace.

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there have been encouraging indications suggested by the route network redesign within the FAB and related benefits collected, as described in Section 2.7.1.

ATM SYSTEMS

• Lack of common systems: In the BLUE MED area the ATM systems present some grade of commonality mostly due to the fact that 3 out of the 4 EU ANSPs share different versions of the same system78. This suggests that even short-term saving in maintenance and in-service development are possible. Regarding the fourth ANSP79 long term convergence should be facilitated by the ongoing Coflight80 program.

• Increased coordination at interfaces: so far inter-centre coordination between the different BLUE MED countries is limited to OLDI messages (e.g., Italy, Greece and Tunisia), or is completely absent (e.g. Egypt). The increased data sharing and system interoperability proposed by the BLUE MED virtual centre model will allow to dramatically enhance inter-centre FAB coordination, thus allowing seamless operations and simultaneously increasing safety all over the BLUE MED airspace.

CNS INFRASTRUCTURE As regards the CNS infrastructure, given the proportionately low costs of COM systems, the expected costs of fragmentation in terms of overprovision are correspondingly small. In addition, given the geographical extension of the BLUE MED area, only few evidences of overprovision on the ACC boundaries could be identified, within the FAB81. It should be noted that even today a certain degree of surveillance data sharing (plots) exists or it is planned. In particular Italy and other neighbouring countries (France, Malta, Croatia and Albania) already share radar data. Other countries, such as Egypt, that are not sharing their surveillance data, are not considering coverage improvements in the area of common interest. It shall also be noted that the margin for relocating sensors or NAVAIDS is also restricted by the geographical constraints82.

78 DCAC, MATS and ENAV are all exploiting a SELEX-SI system. 79 HCAA is exploiting a Thales system. 80 The Coflight programme is a joint undertaking of DSNA, ENAV and Skyguide, for the definition of an interoperable Flight Data Processing system, which is expected to deliver a new generation of interoperable ATM system to be developed by Selex-SI and Thales within 2012. In 2007 MATS also joined the consortium as an observer. 81 Possibly overprovision is more frequent within each single country (continental Greece and northern Italy) or when considering other FABs. 82 Assuming the positioning of NAVAIDS on rigs amid the Mediterranean Sea as economical unfeasible.

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ASSOCIATED SUPPORT Economies of scale in training, administrative costs and R&D: opportunities for economies of scale seem to exist in training, administrative costs and R&D83. R&D activities have been to date quite independent between the different BLUE MED ANSPs, even if some coordination both inter-ANSPs (memorandum of cooperation between the ENAV Experimental Center and MATS) or under the umbrella of EUROCONTROL (i.e Crystal Med, FASTI south) has been performed. These activities could all be pursued in a more coordinated way, especially concerning the definition of common technical specifications for equipments, and could also be managed by a common R&D department for the FAB in a coordinated approach towards SESAR. Opportunities of economies due to administrative costs, albeit surely existing, have not been evaluated in this first phase of the project.

The main conclusion of the analysis on fragmentation is that its impact on the BLUE MED area is currently inferior to the average of the ECAC area, which logically infers that proportional less saving must be expected from the implementation of the BLUE MED FAB

As expressed in Table 11,comparison84 of the key metrics of BLUE MED(Egypt and Tunisia excluded) with the European equivalents, shows that BLUE MED accounts for about 12-14 % of the European air navigation en-route services and related costs.

Total ATM/CNS en-route

costs (€millions)

Controlled flight hours

(millions)

Total ACC

ATCOs in OPS

Total ACC staff

Size of airspace (000 km2)

Number of sectors

Number of ACCs

BLUE MED 1.674 1,44 696 70-80 7-8 1.464 3.244 EUROPE 13.068 11,05 4.997 638 66 9.529 31.887

BLUE MED % 13% 13% 14% 12% 11% 15% 10%

Table 11 - Key metrics: BLUE MED vs. Europe

It should be considered that the current costs of fragmentation in the BLUE MED area are possibly less than could be suggested by the above percentages. Indeed, as discussed in Section 2.8.2.1. the impact of fragmentation in the BLUE MED area is probably less than the average of the ECAC area85,. Nonetheless, there is scope for improvement for the BLUE MED FAB, as transition and investment costs86 should be contained and the BLUE MED FAB could prevent future increase of fragmentation while attracting non EU Mediterranean countries to integrate their airspace with the SES. De-fragmentation issues will be further pursued in the project Phase 2.

83 Greece, Italy and Cyprus currently all own an academy, whereas Malta is outsourcing the ATCOs training. 84 Source: ATM Cost-Effectiveness (ACE) 2005 85 Logically inferring that proportionally reduced benefits could be expected from the implementation of the BLUE MED FAB. 86 Hereafter we define transition costs as the costs that occur where it is necessary to maintain parts of the current system during the transition period to a new system. Investment costs as the costs associated with the acquisition of equipment, property, one-off services, one-off operating start-up costs, and other one-off expenditure for the project.

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2.8.2.2 Cost-effectiveness of BLUE MED

To identify the benefits induced by BLUE MED project, 16 major FAB Improvement Areas (FIAs) have been defined as the most promising areas87 in which the establishment of the FAB is supposed to generate benefits.

The considered Improvement Areas are:

Operational FIAs

o FIA 01: Common Routes Network design o FIA 02: Common Sector Design o FIA 03: Common Operational Procedures o FIA 04: Airspace consolidation o FIA 05: Synergies in ATFCM

Technical FIAs

o FIA 06: Common R&D o FIA 07: Harmonised ATM system o FIA 08: Common Procurement o FIA 09: Common AIS & MET o FIA 10: Surveillance Data sharing o FIA 11: Communication Data sharing

88o FIA 12: Sharing of navigation aids

Other FIAs

o FIA 13: Improved cooperation with Militaries o FIA 14: Common Flight Inspection o FIA 15: Common Safety Management System o FIA 16: Common ATCO Training

All the above FIAs are in some way important for the implementation of the Virtual Centre concept. Among them, FIAs 03, 09, 10, 11 and 16 must be necessarily pursued. As an example, all ATCOs and also other categories of ANS personnel within the FAB need to apply common operational and technical procedures to provide a seamless service. Consequently, a common training syllabus for each personnel category is required as a minimum, while in the longer term common training plans and eventually a joint training Academy could improve the FAB culture.

For each of the FIAs two scenarios have been investigated:

• the MINIMUM FAB SCENARIO, representing the lower boundary for deployment of the improvements within the FAB;

• the MAXIMUM FAB SCENARIO, representing the upper boundary for deployment of improvements within the FAB.

87 As already discussed the possibility of consolidating one or more ACCs along the FAB has not been considered in this study. 88 Although FIA 12 was considered in the preliminary study and this improvement area was considered as beneficial as others in the same CNS field, the paramount change coming from GNSS has been evaluated out of the timeframe involved in FAB implementation, but anyway to consider and point out with the other FIAs to assess its importance in the long-term FAB development..

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The Minimum Scenario should be considered as the candidate arrangement for early implementation (2012) of the BLUE MED FAB to provide short term benefits before attaining (towards 2015) higher performance levels. These performances are expected with improvements (full FAB operations) which should come with the gradual implementation of the Maximum Scenario. However, nothing prevents State’s plan for direct implementation of the maximum solutions from the Definition Phase (2009-2011).

In some FIAs new common FAB airspace management functions are foreseen, at least in the maximum scenarios. These functions will have full regional responsibility, improving coordination and reducing functional and practical fragmentation. They are supposed to take over the existing functions at national level, even though local structures for local coordination activities, with an adequate size, will continue to operate.

The following table describes which FIAs may induce positive benefits for each of the areas where fragmentation is expected to have an adverse impact.

Issues Cause of fragmentation FIAs Piecemeal procurement FIA 08 (mainly ATM systems)

Sub-optimal scale in maintenance and in-service development (mainly CNS)

FIA 09 FIA 10 FIA 11 FIA 12

FIA 14

Common issues

Fragmented planning FIA 06 FIA 08 Economies of scale in ACCs FIA 03

(operating costs) FIA 04 Economies of scale in ACCs

(capital cost) FIA 04 ACCs

Constrained sector design FIA 01 FIA 02 (flight efficiency benefits) Lack of common systems FIA 07 (operating costs) Lack of common systems

(capital costs) FIA 07 ATM systems

FIA 05 FIA 07 Increased coordination at interfaces FIA 13 Optimum location of en-route navaids FIA 12 CNS

infrastructure Overprovision of secondary radar FIA 10 Associated

support Economies of scale in training, administrative costs and R&D

FIA 06 FIA 16

Table 12 - Fragmentation issues that may benefits by FIAs implementation

Currently, the areas directly involved in the different FIAs account for about 40 % of the ANSPs cost. Expert judgments, also based on the data reported in the Fragmentation Report , suggest 89

89 Helios Economics and Policy Services - The impact of fragmentation in the European ATM/CNS - April 2006

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that another 20 % of the ANSPs costs could be indirectly affected by actions in the FIAs. Otherwise, the remaining costs should be considered fixed.

The cost-effectiveness benefits expected by the BLUE MED FAB implementation are mainly due to the harmonisation of services, tools and systems, to a more efficient use of human resources, functionalities and to dissemination of best practices and hence to enhanced quality of services.

On the other hand, at least in the initial phase, coordination costs are expected to increase.

It is important to notice that assumptions used at this feasibility study stage in order to develop the model for the economical appraisal, will be substantially revised and validated within the foreseen Definition Phase for BLUE MED. The following tables report the variation of the cost-effectiveness KPIs used to assess the BLUE MED FAB benefits, in analogy with the standard KPIs90, and the comparison with the agreed BLUE MED targets:

-0,84%-1,72% -1,79%

-4,77%

-7,70% -8,08%‐10,0%

‐8,0%

‐6,0%

‐4,0%

‐2,0%

0,0%

2010 2015 2020

Do MinDo Max

EnRoute Costs variationvs. Baseline

Figure 6 - Variation of en-route costs

-0,84%

-4,77%-3,87%

-4,26%

0,24% 0,18%

‐6,0%‐5,0%‐4,0%‐3,0%‐2,0%‐1,0%0,0%1,0%

2010 2015 2020

Do MinDo Max

Euro per Flight Hour variationvs. Baseline

Figure 7 - Variation of flight hour Cost Effectiveness KPI

(En-route costs/en-route controlled flight hours)

90 With the noticeable difference that BLUE MED KPIs do not take into account the terminal operations, out of the scope of the Feasibility Study. Then, as an example en-route flight hours and en-route IFR flight segments are considered instead of composite flight hours.

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-0,84%-1,72% -1,79%

-4,77%

-7,70% -8,08%‐9,0%‐8,0%‐7,0%‐6,0%‐5,0%‐4,0%‐3,0%‐2,0%‐1,0%0,0%

2010 2015 2020

Do MinDo Max

Euro per IFR Flight/flight Segmentsvariationvs. Baseline

Figure 8 - Variation of IFR Flight Cost Effectiveness KPI

(En-route costs/en-route IFR flights/flight segments)

-0,68%

-5,01%-4,18%

-4,56%

0,46% 0,40%

‐6,0%‐5,0%‐4,0%‐3,0%‐2,0%‐1,0%0,0%1,0%

2010 2015 2020

Do MinDo Max

ATCOCosts per FlightHourvariationvs. Baseline

Figure 9 - Variation of ATCOs Costs

(ATCOc in OPS costs / en-route controlled flight hours)

-0,92%

-4,66%

-3,73%-4,12%

0,14% 0,08%

‐5,0%

‐4,0%

‐3,0%

‐2,0%

‐1,0%

0,0%

1,0%

2010 2015 2020

Do MinDo Max

SupportCosts per FlightHourvariationvs. Baseline

Figure 10 - Variation of Support Costs

(Support costs / en-route controlled flight hours)

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-0,68%

-5,01%

-1,75% -2,15%

1,97% 1,91%

‐6,0%‐5,0%‐4,0%‐3,0%‐2,0%‐1,0%0,0%1,0%2,0%

2010 2015 2020

Do MinDo Max

ATCO Cost per Unit variation vs. Baseline

Figure 11 - Variation of ATCOs Costs per Unit (ATCOs in OPS costs / Total ATCOs in OPS)

0,00%

1,50% 1,50%

0,00%

2,53% 2,52%

0,0%

0,5%

1,0%

1,5%

2,0%

2,5%

3,0%

2010 2015 2020

Do MinDo Max

ATCO Productivity per Flight Hourvariationvs. Baseline

Figure 12 - Variation of ATCOs productivity (En-route controlled flight hours / Total ATCOs hours on duty)

0,00%

3,53% 3,53%

0,00%

6,79% 6,78%

0,0%

1,5%

3,0%

4,5%

6,0%

2010 2015 2020

Do MinDo Max

ATCO Productivity per Flight/Segmentvariationvs. Baseline

Figure 13 - Variation of ATCO productivity (En-route IFR flight Segments / Total ATCOs hh on duty)

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-0,75%

-5,50%-4,82%

-5,14%

0,34% 0,27%

‐6,5%‐5,5%‐4,5%‐3,5%‐2,5%‐1,5%‐0,5%0,5%

2010 2015 2020

Do MinDo Max

Support STAFF per En Route Flighthoursvariationvs. Baseline

Figure 14 – Variation of Support Staff per en-route flight hours (Support staff / En-route controlled flight hours ‘000)

-0,75%

-5,50%

-2,41% -2,75%

1,85% 1,77%

‐6,0%‐5,0%‐4,0%‐3,0%‐2,0%‐1,0%0,0%1,0%2,0%3,0%

2010 2015 2020

Do MinDo Max

Support Staff per ATCOs in OPSvariationvs. Baseline

Figure 15 - Support Staff need

(Support staff / ATCO in OPS no. of Units)

The above data shows that BLUE MED would induce a significant improvement of both cost effectiveness and productivity. From a user perspective, the data in Figure 6 may turn out of particular interest, suggesting that total savings in en-route cost could be up to 8,08 %. This data is of particular interest if we consider that all the above figures have been derived taking into consideration a baseline already encompassing SESAR improvements, allowing to evaluate the above benefits as additional to the SESAR expected benefits thus showing the real FAB expected improvements in the region..

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In order to provide an indication of the saving amounts, the following tables report the net present values for the years 2010, 2015 and 2020 of the FAB Maximum and FAB Minimum scenario. In both scenarios, cost savings are expected to occur in early stages since, given the functions that the Virtual Centre shall integrate and the currently technology available to the different ANSPs, transition and investment costs should be soon compensated by savings.

Do Max costs net

value (real)

Discount factor

Net Present Value (NPV)

Baseline costs net

value (real)

Net Value (real)

Present Value Year (8% per

annum)

2010 741,94 706,52 35,41 1,17 30,36 30,36 2015 830,52 766,54 63,98 1,71 37,33 197,52 2020 942,42 866,31 76,10 2,52 30,22 362,22

Table 13 - FAB Maximum scenario financial summary (in M€)

The Maximum scenario is expected to realize, in the assumption that the Member States and ANSPs keep their maximum involvement in the BLUE MED FAB initiative, as they have done so far.

If this involvement does not occur and only the FAB Minimum scenario is implemented, the cost savings can be quite small as shown by

Table 14.

Baseline costs net

value (real)

Do Min costs net

value (real)

Discount factor

Net Present Value (NPV)

Net Value (real)

Present Value Year (8% per

annum)

2010 741,94 735,67 6,27 1,17 5,37 5,37 2015 830,52 816,20 14,32 1,71 8,36 33,90 2020 942,42 925,59 16,83 2,52 6,68 70,46

Table 14 - FAB Minimum scenario financial summary (in M€)

From this perspective, the FAB Minimum scenario represents the low boundary (worst case situation) of the improvement development within the FAB. The FAB Minimum scenario assumes a coordination of the ANSPs services but not their integration Finally

Table 15 provides an indication of the net present values of the FAB Maximum and Minimum scenarios for discount rates different from the standard 8% one. For the FAB Maximum scenarios a variation of a point in the discount rate implies a variation of about 8.000-9.000 k€ of the year 2015 net present value.

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Do Max NPV

(10%)

Do Max NPV

Do Min NPV

(10%)

Do Min NPV (6%) Year

(6%)

2010 45,36 48,22 8,03 8,53 2015 197,70 232,35 33,85 40,13 2020 335,07 430,68 64,34 84,16

Table 15 - Net present values for 6 % and 10 % discount rates (in M€)

Additionally, it should be noted that the forecast of traffic demand increase considered in this study was quite conservative. If such a demand will realize higher than expected the percentage savings of the BLUE MED scenarios with respect of the baseline one could be greater, given for example the greater cross border traffic.

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3 CONCLUSIONS

The BLUE MED Feasibility Study constitutes the first, fundamental step for the creation of a FAB over the south east Mediterranean area, aiming to fulfil the SES regulatory framework.

The study has been conducted under the assumption that the expectations of several stakeholders need to be reconciled and satisfied; to this purpose, a set of well identified targets has been defined for the main improvement areas, and used to assess the capability of BLUE MED to provide the expected benefits.

In addition to creating an unprecedented excellent working cooperation and understanding between the participating ANSPs, the study concluded that the improvements expected to derive from the FAB establishment, when offset against the related costs, clearly support the feasibility and viability of the FAB.

This said, it should be underlined that the work necessary to define and implement the BLUE MED FAB should now gain the consistency needed for its satisfactory outcome. The Feasibility Study results just provided an “initial image” of the FAB structure and of its expected benefits; this work needs to proceed now, to be completed and integrated into an agreed FAB implementation Scenario and validated by an extensive Definition Phase.

The BLUE MED team is well aware that this Definition Phase will prove much more challenging in term of resources from most relevant stakeholders (ANSPs, CAAs, Military Authorities EUROCONTROL and workers’ federations, Unions, Airlines Associations, etc..) dedicated to complete the job, and that this will require full commitment from the States and all the organisations concerned. To this purpose an adequately wide dissemination of the Feasibility study results will be performed, in order to attract and secure the indispensable support, and an official joint statement from the BLUE MED EU and non-EU States will be pursued to affirm State commitment to the initiative.

The BLUE MED States have identified an agreed institutional roadmap to reinforce the support of EU Member States and non-EU States to BLUE MED. An official Conference of the Director General of Civil Aviation of the concerned BLUE MED States will be held in Athens in July 2008, and a joint statement on BLUE MED will be signed in Rome in September 2008 by the Ministry of Transport of the BLUE MED States.

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4 RECOMMENDATIONS

The following recommendations have been identified to allow for the successful completion of the Definition Phase:

1. Ensure stakeholders commitment through active participation. Due to its complexity, the FAB building process requires buy-in and active support from several key stakeholders. In particular, the BLUE MED project Phase 2 shall involve at the adequate level representatives/experts of the States (relevant Ministries), NSA, Military and Social dialogue partners for each of the States concerned. Irrespective if this involvement may generate substantial overhead on the day-to-day project activities, the BLUE MED partners consider this involvement as a fundamental pre-requisite for success.

91To this respect the BLUE MED States shall pursue the agreed institutional roadmap and implement any other necessary action to reinforce the support of all indispensable parties to the establishment of the BLUE MED FAB.

2. Identify optimised cross-border arrangements, better adapted to operational needs. Enhance inter FAB coordination The actual geometry and external borders of the BLUE MED FAB in some areas are not optimal to provide the required consistent seamless service to some relevant traffic flows (existing and future). Acknowledging that some opportunity for operational improvements exists, and under the assumption that FAB creation process is a bottom up political agreement of sovereign States, the BLUE MED team is fully aware that the establishment of a FAB is intrinsically a matter of pan-European coordination, and shall be performed in close cooperation with the other FAB initiatives, with EUROCONTROL and the Commission. The BLUE MED partners, who have already actively pursued this coordination during the Feasibility Study, shall foster the process in the Definition Phase in order to ensure that the BLUE MED FAB development will progress harmoniously with the other FAB initiatives.

3. Identify proper Governance and Management structure for the FAB The Feasibility Study has identified a set of improvements and benefits for the FAB independent from the Governance mechanism and the Management Structure that will be agreed for the BLUE MED FAB. However, the BLUE MED partners believe that the future BLUE MED Management Structure has the potential to bring additional improvements on cost-effectiveness, managing the CNS/ATM system consolidation planned in the Virtual Centre concept and ensuring the transition towards the Maximum Scenario arrangements identified in the Feasibility Study in order to satisfy the agreed performance targets.

4. Improve FAB benefits by involving other neighbouring States in the project. The added value of increasing the BLUE MED benefits by increasing the partners of the FAB should be taken into consideration (weighted against the additional workload and risks that could derive by an enlarged group of participating States) by exploring the related operational needs and political opportunities. In particular, it should be noted that the overall defragmentation could be contained if other neighbouring States will join in

91 As previously reported, an official Conference of the Director General of Civil Aviation of the concerned BLUE MED States will be held in Athens in July 2008, and a joint statement on BLUE MED will be signed in Rome in September 2008 by the Ministry of Transport of the BLUE MED States.

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and share existing infrastructures and capabilities, thus enhancing the economy of scale of the BLUE MED FAB. Also, additional value for the ATM harmonisation can be created by extending the benefits of the initiative to non EU States which have a significant traffic exchange with the BLUE MED FAB, involving them as fully participating States or as observers.

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