Bloomberg Politics National Poll - GOP - Nov. 19, 2015

8/20/2019 Bloomberg Politics National Poll - GOP - Nov. 19, 2015

1/12

Bloomberg Politics National Poll

SELZER & COMPANY Study #2129

1,002 U.S. adults ages 18 and over November 15-17, 2015

Margin of error: ± 3.1 percentage points Weighted by age and race

Poll Questions

Percentages may not add to 100% due to rounding.

In general, do you think things in the nation are headed in the right direction, or have they gotten off on

the wrong track?

Right

direction

Wrong

track Not sure

Nov-15 23 69 8Sep-15 24 66 10

Apr-15 31 61 8

Dec-14 24 65 11

Jun-14 26 64 10

Mar-14 30 62 8

Dec-13 27 67 6Sep-13 25 68 7

Jun-13 32 60 8

Feb-13 37 54 9

Dec-12 38 55 7

Sep-12 33 60 7

Jun-12 31 62 7

Mar-12 31 61 8

Sep-11 20 72 8

Jun-11 26 66 8

Mar-11 28 63 9

Dec-10 27 66 7

Oct-10 32 62 6

Jul-10 31 63 6

Mar-10 34 58 8

Dec-09 32 59 9

Sep-09 40 52 8


2/12

Which of the following do you see as the most important issue facing the country right now? (Read list.

Rotate.)

I m

m i g r a t i o n

H e a l t h c a r e

T h e f e d e r a l d e f i c i t

T e r r o r i s m

T a x e s

A

d e c l i n e i n r e a l

i n c o m e f o r

A m e r i c a n w o r k e r s

T h e I s l a m i c S t a t e ,

a l s o k n o w n a s I S I S

C l i m a t e c h a n g e

U n e m p l o y m e n t a n d

j o b s

O t h e r ( V O L )

( s p e c i f y : )

N o n e o f t h e s e

( V

O L )

N o t s u r e

Nov-15 7 10 7 14 3 14 21 5 11 2 1 6Sep-15 7 11 10 7 4 14 11 6 20 3 1 6

Apr-15 6 12 10 9 4 12 13 7 18 2 2 5

Dec-14 11 14 9 4 3 15 7 5 21 4 1 6

[Note changes in answer options. Percentages given for reference, but not valid for direct comparison.] Which of the following do you see as the most important issue facing the country right now?

(Read list. Rotate.)

I m m i g r a t i o n

H e a l t h c a r e

T h e f e d e r a l d e f i c i t

G o v e r n m e n t s p

e n d i n g

E n t i t l e m e n t s p e n d i n o n

S o c i a l S e c u r i t y

a n d

M e d i c a r e

T a x e s

T e r r o r i s m

U n e m p l o y m e n t a n d j o b s

T h e s i t u a t i o n i n t h e

M i d d l e E a s t

G a s p r i c e s

G a y m a r r i a g e

T h e o i l s p i l l i n t h e G u l f

o f M e x i c o

C l i m a t e c h a n g e

T h e w a r i n A f g

h a n i s t a n

A d e c l i n e i n r e a l i n c o m e

f o r A m e r i c a n w

o r k e r s

O t h e r ( V O L ) ( s p e c i f y : )

N o n e o f t h e s e ( V O L )

N o t s u r e

Jun-14 6 17 13 n/a n/a 4 4 28 n/a n/a n/a n/a 5 n/a 16 3 1 3

Dec-12 4 9 19 n/a 11 7 2 37 5 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 3 1 5

Sep-12 3 11 14 n/a n/a 4 3 43 6 7 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 4 1 4

Jun-12 4 13 18 n/a n/a 4 3 45 n/a 4 3 n/a n/a n/a n/a 2 1 3

Mar-12 4 10 21 n/a n/a 3 1 42 n/a 11 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 4 1 3

Sept-11 3 10 12 18 n/a 2 n/a 46 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 5 n/a 2 - 2

Jun-11 3 10 13 17 n/a 1 n/a 42 n/a 4 n/a n/a n/a 5 n/a 2 - 3

Mar-11 3 12 29 n/a n/a n/a 43 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 7 n/a 4 n/a 2

Dec-10 5 9 25 n/a n/a n/a 50 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 7 n/a 1 n/a 3

Oct-10 5 12 24 n/a n/a n/a 49 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 7 n/a 1 n/a 2Jul-10 n/a 9 26 n/a n/a n/a 41 n/a n/a n/a 13 n/a 7 n/a 1 n/a 3


3/12

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing: [ITEM FROM LIST]?

(Begin with “as president.” Rotate all other options.)

Approve Disapprove Not Sure

As president Nov-15 44 51 5Sep-15 46 47 7

Apr-15 47 46 7

Dec-14 39 52 9

Jun-14 43 53 4Mar-14 48 48 4

Dec-13 42 55 3

Sep-13 45 49 6

Jun-13 49 46 5

Feb-13 55 40 5

Dec-12 53 44 3

Sep-12 49 46 5

Jun-12 53 44 3

Mar-12 48 47 5

Sep-11 45 49 6

Jun-11 49 44 7

Mar-11 51 43 6

Dec-10 47 48 5

Oct-10 48 45 7

Jul-10 52 44 4Mar-10 50 45 5

Dec-09 54 41 5

Sep-09 56 37 7

With the economy Nov-15 44 51 5Sep-15 47 48 5

Apr-15 49 46 5

Dec-14 42 53 5

Jun-14 38 57 5

Mar-14 43 53 4

Dec-13 38 58 4

Sep-13 38 56 6

Jun-13 42 53 5

Feb-13 47 49 4

Dec-12 48 48 4Sep-12 41 53 6

Jun-12 43 53 4

Mar-12 41 56 3

Sep-11 33 62 5

Jun-11 39 57 4

Mar-11 43 52 5

Dec-10 41 54 5

Oct-10 44 51 5

Jul-10 44 52 4

Mar-10 44 51 5

Dec-09 45 50 5

Sep-09 50 45 5


4/12

Approve Disapprove Not Sure

With health care Nov-15 40 56 4Sep-15 44 51 5

Apr-15 43 53 4

Dec-14 41 55 4

Jun-14 38 58 4

Mar-14 40 54 6

Dec-13 37 60 3

Sep-13 39 54 7

Jun-13 40 56 4Jun-12 43 52 5

Mar-12 40 54 6

Sep-11 39 53 8

Jun-11 45 50 5

Mar-11 44 50 6

Dec-10 44 51 5

Oct-10 51 45 4

Jul-10 46 51 3

Mar-10 43 52 5

Dec-09 40 53 7

Sep-09 47 48 5

With negotiating with the Republican

majority in the U.S. Congress

Nov-15 35 54 11Sep-15 35 52 13

Apr-15 35 54 11

[Note change in question language. Percentages given for reference, but not valid for direct comparison.] With negotiating with the Republican majority in the

U.S. House of Representatives

Dec-14 32 56 12

Jun-14 33 55 12

Mar-14 37 51 12

Dec-13 34 55 11

Sep-13 39 46 15

Jun-13 38 49 13

Feb-13 42 44 14

Dec-12 45 45 10

Mar-12 41 48 11

Sep-11 37 52 11

With relations with other countries Sep-15 44 50 6

Feb-13 52 35 13Dec-12 54 39 7

Sep-12 45 47 8

Mar-12* 54 40 6

Dec-10 56 37 7

Oct-10 54 36 10

Mar-10 58 35 7

Dec-09 59 35 6

Sep-09 60 32 8

*Mar-12: n=746. Was not included until second night in field.


5/12

Now, I’m going to mention some people and groups in the news recently. [Previous wording: Now, I'd like to

mention some major economic and political figures and groups.] For each, please tell me if your feelings are very

favorable, mostly favorable, mostly unfavorable, or very unfavorable. If you don’t know enough to

answer, just say so. (Record “don’t know” as “not sure.” Rotate list.)

Net

Favorable

Net

Unfavorable

Very

Favorable

Mostly

Favorable

Mostly

Unfavorable

Very

Unfavorable

Not

Sure

George W. Bush,

former president ofthe United States

Nov-15 45 50 12 33 24 26 5

Apr-15 46 46 15 31 24 22 8Sep-12 46 49 17 29 19 30 5

Jun-12 44 51 14 30 24 27 5

Mar-12 45 50 14 31 22 28 5

Dec-10 39 57 12 27 28 29 4

Oct-10 39 55 9 30 26 29 6

Mitt Romney, former

candidate for

president of the

United States

Nov-15 32 50 9 24 30 20 17

Mitt Romney, former

governor of

Massachusetts and

Republican

candidate for president in 2012

Dec-14 43 44 15 28 24 20 13

Mitt Romney,

Republican

candidate for

president and former

governor of

Massachusetts

Sep-12 43 50 19 24 19 31 7

Jun-12 39 48 13 26 25 23 13

Mar-12 42 48 11 31 26 22 10

Sep-11 42 38 10 32 23 15 20

Mitt Romney, former

governor of

Massachusetts

Jun-11 37 31 8 29 20 11 32

Mar-10 31 26 7 24 16 10 43

Paul Ryan, the new

speaker of the U.S.

House of

Representatives

Nov-15 40 30 11 29 15 15 30

Paul Ryan, the

Republican

candidate for vice-

president

Sep-12 41 41 20 21 17 24 18

Paul Ryan,

congressman from

Wisconsin and

chairman of the

House Budget

Committee

Jun-11 23 26 8 15 16 10 51

Donald Trump, a

businessman from

New York*

Nov-15 34 61 11 23 21 40 5

Sep-15 31 61 10 20 20 41 9

Donald Trump, businessman and

television

personality

Jun-12 33 55 8 25 26 29 12

Mar-11 37 43 10 27 24 19 20


6/12

NetFavorable

Net

Unfavorable

Very

Favorable

Mostly

Favorable

Mostly

Unfavorable

Very

Unfavorable

Not

Sure

The Republican

PartyNov-15 36 54 7 29 32 22 10Sep-15 33 54 8 25 31 23 13

Apr-15 38 53 11 27 31 22 9

Dec-14 45 47 11 34 28 19 8

Mar-14 37 54 8 29 30 24 9

Dec-13 37 53 10 27 32 21 10

Sep-13 34 56 8 26 30 26 10

Feb-13 35 55 7 28 30 25 10

Dec-12 38 51 10 28 28 23 11Sep-12 41 49 14 27 25 24 10

Jun-12 41 50 13 28 26 24 9

Mar-12 44 49 14 30 28 21 7

Sep-11 37 53 9 28 27 26 10

Jun-11 42 47 12 30 31 16 11

Mar-11 41 47 11 30 27 20 12

Dec-10 43 48 10 33 29 19 9

Oct-10 42 46 11 31 27 19 12

Jul-10 42 46 9 33 28 18 12

Mar-10 39 48 7 32 28 20 13

Dec-09 42 47 9 33 30 17 11

Sep-09 38 52 8 30 31 21 10

The U.S. Congress Nov-15 27 62 3 23 38 24 12Sep-15 26 63 6 20 34 29 11

Apr-15 34 54 6 28 33 21 12

Planned Parenthood Nov-15 50 37 25 25 12 25 14

*See below for results among only party members and leaners.

Among registered Republicans and Republican leaners; n=379. Margin of error: +/- 5.0 percentage points.Net

Favorable

Net

Unfavorable

Very

Favorable

Mostly

Favorable

Mostly

Unfavorable

Very

Unfavorable

Not

Sure

George W. Bush,

former president of

the United States

Nov-15 77 20 23 54 14 5 3

Mitt Romney, former

candidate for

president of the

United States

Nov-15 60 26 18 42 19 8 14

Paul Ryan, the new

speaker of the U.S.

House of

Representatives

Nov-15 64 12 21 43 9 3 24

Donald Trump, a

businessman from

New York

Nov-15 55 42 21 35 22 20 3

Sep-15 51 40 19 32 21 19 9

Jeb Bush, former

governor of FloridaNov-15 47 41 7 40 26 15 13Sep-15 57 31 8 49 21 10 12

Ben Carson, retired

neurosurgeonNov-15 67 21 26 41 15 7 11Sep-15 68 10 32 36 5 6 21

Chris Christie,

governor of New

Jersey

Nov-15 53 35 11 43 22 13 11

Sep-15 49 32 10 38 21 11 19

Ted Cruz, U.S.

senator from Texas Nov-15 57 22 23 34 17 5 21Sep-15 52 26 20 32 17 10 22

Carly Fiorina, former

CEO of Hewlett-

Packard

Nov-15 54 26 13 40 18 8 20

Sep-15 57 17 20 37 11 6 26


7/12

Net

Favorable

Net

Unfavorable

Very

Favorable

Mostly

Favorable

Mostly

Unfavorable

Very

Unfavorable

Not

Sure

John Kasich,

governor of OhioNov-15 29 34 4 25 23 11 37Sep-15 34 17 8 26 14 3 49

Rand Paul, U.S.

senator from

Kentucky

Nov-15 38 39 9 29 25 14 23

Sep-15 36 42 7 28 29 12 23

Marco Rubio, U.S.

senator from FloridaNov-15 67 17 22 45 12 5 16Sep-15 60 14 22 38 11 3 26

Which one of the following Republicans would be your first choice for president? (Read list and rotate.)And who would your second choice be? (If Uncommitted or Not sure in first choice question, code

second choice as No first choice and do not ask. Read list only if necessary.)

Among registered Republicans and leaners only; n=379. MoE: ±

5.0% pts. First

(with Jindal reallocated) Second

Jeb Bush 6 8

Ben Carson 20 17

Chris Christie 4 5

Ted Cruz 9 10

Carly Fiorina 3 6Lindsey Graham 1 1

Mike Huckabee 3 3

Bobby Jindal (dropped out, so first choice votes reallocated) - 1

John Kasich 3 3

George Pataki 1 -

Rand Paul 3 2

Marco Rubio 12 14

Rick Santorum 1 1

Donald Trump 24 10

“Uncommitted” (VOL– only if respondent says the word

“uncommitted.”)

5 1

Not sure 7 6 No first choice 11


8/12

Which one of the following Republicans would be your first choice for president? (Read list and rotate.)

And who would your second choice be? (If Uncommitted or Not sure in first choice question, code

second choice as No first choice and do not ask. Read list only if necessary.)

Among registered Republicans and leaners

only; n=379. MoE: ± 5.0% pts. First Second

Jeb Bush Nov-15 6 8Sep-15 13 n/a

Aug-15 10 n/a

Ben Carson Nov-15 20 17Sep-15 16 n/a

Aug-15 5 n/a

Chris Christie Nov-15 4 5Sep-15 4 n/a

Aug-15 4 n/a

Ted Cruz Nov-15 9 10Sep-15 5 n/a

Aug-15 4 n/a

Carly Fiorina Nov-15 3 6Sep-15 11 n/a

Aug-15 1 n/a

Lindsey Graham Nov-15 1 1

Sep-15 - n/a Aug-15 1 n/a

Mike Huckabee Nov-15 3 3Sep-15 3 n/a

Aug-15 7 n/a

Bobby Jindal (dropped out, so first choicevotes reallocated)

Nov-15 - 1Sep-15 1 n/a

Aug-15 1 n/a

John Kasich Nov-15 3 3Sep-15 4 n/a

Aug-15 4 n/a

George Pataki Nov-15 1 -Sep-15 - n/a

Aug-15 - n/a

Rand Paul Nov-15 3 2Sep-15 2 n/a

Aug-15 5 n/a

Marco Rubio Nov-15 12 14Sep-15 8 n/a

Aug-15 6 n/a

Rick Santorum Nov-15 1 1Sep-15 1 n/a

Aug-15 2 n/a

Donald Trump Nov-15 24 10Sep-15 21 n/a

Aug-15 21 n/a

“Uncommitted” (VOL– only ifrespondent says the word

“uncommitted.”)

Nov-15 5 1Sep-15 5 n/a

Aug-15 6 n/a

Not sure Nov-15 7 6Sep-15 5 n/a

Aug-15 12 n/a

No first choice Nov-15 11Sep-15 n/a

Aug-15 n/a


9/12

I’m going to mention the candidates who are not your first or second choice. For each, please tell me if you

think you could ever support the person for president or would never support the person for president.

(Read appropriate names. Use same rotation as first choice question. If selected as first or second

choice, code as such and do not ask.)

Among registered Republicans and leaners only;

n=379. MoE: ± 5.0% pts. Ever Never Not sure1

st or 2

nd

choice

Jeb Bush Nov-15 51 32 3 14Aug-15 39 32 9 20

Ben Carson Nov-15 40 21 3 37Aug-15 40 28 23 9

Chris Christie Nov-15 52 35 4 9Aug-15 34 43 14 9

Ted Cruz Nov-15 44 27 11 19Aug-15 37 34 19 9

Carly Fiorina Nov-15 47 35 8 9Aug-15 34 36 28 3

Lindsey Graham Nov-15 24 58 16 1Aug-15 23 55 21 1

Mike Huckabee Nov-15 45 43 7 6Aug-15 48 30 11 11

Bobby Jindal Nov-15 30 48 20 1Aug-15 37 37 24 2

John Kasich Nov-15 26 52 16 6Aug-15 26 38 30 6

George Pataki Nov-15 18 62 19 1Aug-15 19 52 28 1

Rand Paul Nov-15 41 47 8 5Aug-15 38 38 14 10

Marco Rubio Nov-15 46 22 7 26Aug-15 47 25 15 12

Rick Santorum Nov-15 38 50 10 2Aug-15 39 38 18 5

Donald Trump Nov-15 27 36 3 34Aug-15 27 37 6 29

I have some questions comparing just [BEN CARSON] and [DONALD TRUMP]. Which one do you think:

Among registered Republicans and leaners only;

n=379. MoE: ± 5.0% pts. Carson Trump Both (VOL) Not sure

Has the better temperament to be president 68 25 1 5

Would be better at dealing with Vladimir

Putin 38 52 1 9

Would work most effectively with Congress 62 30 2 6

Has the most appropriate life experience to

be president 32 50 4 14

Knows the most about how to get things

done 20 73 2 6Cares the most about people like you 65 23 2 10

Has the right values to lead the nation 61 26 5 7

Would be better at managing the economy 24 72 1 3

Would do more to solve the illegal

immigration problem 26 66 1 7

Is the most honest and trustworthy 61 25 3 11

Can best combat Islamic terrorism 29 55 2 14


10/12

I have some questions comparing just [TED CRUZ] and [MARCO RUBIO]. Which one do you think:

Among registered Republicans and leaners only; n=379.

MoE: ± 5.0% pts. Cruz Rubio Both (VOL) Not sure

Has the better temperament to be president 28 47 4 20

Would be better at dealing with Vladimir Putin 33 39 3 25

Would work most effectively with Congress 29 46 3 21

Has the most appropriate life experience to be

president 36 35 6 23Knows the most about how to get things done 35 36 6 22

Cares the most about people like you 30 41 6 23

Has the right values to lead the nation 31 41 8 20

Would be better at managing the economy 36 36 4 24

Would do more to solve the illegal immigration

problem 44 35 2 19

Can best combat Islamic terrorism 36 33 5 26

For each of the following potential candidate concerns, please tell me if this is something that makes you

less supportive of the candidate or does not bother you. (Read list. Rotate.)

Among registered Republicans and leaners only; n=379. MoE: ± 5.0%

pts.

Less

supportive

Does not

bother

Not

sure

Marco Rubio has had questions raised about how he handled

his personal finances 40 57 4

Ted Cruz has had questions raised about his ability to get along

with his colleagues 30 65 5

Ben Carson has had questions raised about whether some of the

facts in his autobiography are true 27 71 2

Donald Trump has had questions raised about his ability to

wage a campaign without offending large groups of

Americans 33 66 1

Do you consider yourself more of an establishment or anti-establishment Republican? Among registeredRepublicans and leaners only; n=379. MoE: ± 5.0% pts.

41 Establishment

45 Anti-establishment

4 Neither (VOL)

11 Not sure

Which ONE of the following factions of the Republican party describes you best as you think about which

candidate to support: (Rotate list.) Among registered Republicans and leaners only; n=379. MoE: ± 5.0% pts.

10 Tea party

33 Christian conservative

22 Mainstream Republican

14 Libertarian

15 National security conservative

6 Not sure


11/12

Questions on Islamic State, Islam, refugees, and terrorism based on interviews on Nov. 16-17; n=628.

Turning now to the conflict involving ISIS, the Islamic State. Do you think the U.S. should or should notsend American troops to Iraq or Syria to fight the Islamic State?

All Reps Dems

n=628

± 3.9% pts.

n=230

± 6.5% pts.

n=245

± 6.3% pts.

44 64 31 Should send

45 27 59 Should not send

11 9 11 Not sure

When it comes to the Islamic faith, which of the following is closer to your view? (Rotate options.)

All Reps Dems

n=628

± 3.9% pts.

n=230

± 6.5% pts.

n=245

± 6.3% pts.

28 32 17 Islam is an inherently violent religion, which leads its followers to

violent acts

64 61 76 Islam is an inherently peaceful religion, but there are some who twist

its teachings to justify violence

8 8 7 Not sure

Which of the following do you think is the best approach for the U.S. to take with refugees fleeing the civilwar in Syria? (Read list. Do not rotate.)

All Reps Dems

n=628

± 3.9% pts.

n=230

± 6.5% pts.

n=245

± 6.3% pts.

28 12 46 Proceed with the plan to resettle 10,000 refugees without religious

screening

11 11 9 Resettle only Christian refugees from Syria

53 69 36 Do not accept any Syrian refugees into the U.S.

8 7 9 Not sure

Given the history between the two nations, do you think it is a good idea or bad idea for the U.S. to enterinto a military coalition with Russia to combat Islamic terrorism?

All Reps Dems

n=628

± 3.9% pts.

n=230

± 6.5% pts.

n=245

± 6.3% pts.

53 59 50 Good idea

35 31 40 Bad idea

12 10 10 Not sure

Are you mostly confident or mostly not confident the U.S. has done enough to protect the homeland against

an attack similar to what happened in Paris?

All Reps Demsn=628

± 3.9% pts.

n=230

± 6.5% pts.

n=245

± 6.3% pts.

48 32 62 Mostly confident

46 63 34 Mostly not confident

6 6 4 Not sure


12/12

Do you think the unemployment rate is higher or lower than when President Obama took office in 2009?

All Reps Dems

n=1,002

± 3.1% pts.

n=379

± 5.0% pts.

n=385

± 5.0% pts.

34 53 18 Higher

56 38 76 Lower

10 9 6 Not sure

President Obama halted the deportion of some immigrants living in the country illegally if they came here before age 16, have been in the country for five years, have no criminal record, are in school or have a

high school diploma or have been honorably discharged from the military. Do you think this policy should

or should not continue?

All Reps Dems

n=1,002

± 3.1% pts.

n=379

± 5.0% pts.

n=385

± 5.0% pts.

63 50 77 Continue

30 43 18 Not continue

7 7 5 Not sure

Some candidates favor rounding up 11 million immigrants in the U.S. illegally and sending them to their

home country. Do you think this is the right way or the wrong way to address the situation?

All Reps Dems

n=1,002

± 3.1% pts.

n=379

± 5.0% pts.

n=385

± 5.0% pts.

27 37 17 Right way

63 54 73 Wrong way

10 9 9 Not sure

Compared to:

SELZER & COMPANY Study #2126

1,001 general population age 18 and over September 18-21, 2015

Margin of error: ± 3.1 percentage points Weighted by age and race

Methodology

Nov 19 (Bloomberg) -- The Bloomberg Politics Poll, conducted November 15-17 for Bloomberg Politics by

Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, IA, is based on interviews with 1,002 U.S. adults ages 18 or older.

Interviewers with Quantel Research contacted households with randomly selected landline and cell phone telephone

numbers supplied by Survey Sampling International. Interviews were administered in English.

Percentages based on the full probability sample may have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 3.1

percentage points. This means that if this survey were repeated using the same questions and the same methodology,

19 times out of 20, the findings would not vary from the percentages shown here by more than plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. Results based on smaller samples of respondents—such as by gender or age—have a larger

margin of error. Responses were weighted by age and race to reflect the general population based on recent census

data.

For media inquiries, contact Vidhya Murugesan at [email protected].

For additional technical information about this study, contact Michelle Yeoman at [email protected].

Republishing the copyrighted Bloomberg Politics Poll without credit to Bloomberg Politics is prohibited.

Bloomberg Politics National Poll - GOP - Nov. 19, 2015

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