8/10/2019 Blake Electronics

1/507

0.50Favourable

$0

Hire MAI

-$100,000 $500,000

0.50Unfavourabl

$0

Survey1

$0 $500,000

0.62Favourable

$0

Hire I&K

Blake Electronics

8/10/2019 Blake Electronics

2/507

-$300,000 $468,800

0.38

Unfavourabl2$700,000 $0

No product

$0 $0No survey

2 0.6$0 $700,000 Successful

Introduce product $2,000,000

-$500,000 $700,000 0.4Unsuccessf

$0

Do nothing

$0 $0

8/10/2019 Blake Electronics

3/507

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4/507

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0.7Successful venture

$1,400,000Introduce product $2,000,000 $1,400,000

-$500,000 $800,000 0.3

Unsuccessful venture survey -$600,0001 $0 -$600,000

$800,000

No product-$100,000

$0 -$100,000

0.4Successful venture

$1,400,000Introduce product $2,000,000 $1,400,000

-$500,000 $200,000 0.6Unsuccessful venture

e survey -$600,0001 $0 -$600,000

$200,000

No product

-$100,000$0 -$100,000

0.87Successful venture

$1,200,000Introduce product $2,000,000 $1,200,000

-$500,000 $940,000 0.13Unsuccessful venture

survey -$800,0001 $0 -$800,000

$940,000

No product-$300,000

$0 -$300,000

0.16

8/10/2019 Blake Electronics

24/507

Successful venture$1,200,000

Introduce product $2,000,000 $1,200,000

-$500,000 -$480,000 0.84Unsuccessful venture

e survey -$800,0002 $0 -$800,000-$300,000

No product-$300,000

$0 -$300,000

$0

enture$1,500,000

$1,500,000

ul venture-$500,000

-$500,000

$0

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ID Name Value Prob Pred0 0 TreePlan 0 0 00 1 0 00 2 0 00 3 0 0

20 4 1821 5 1822 6 0 423 7 0 424 8 625 9 626 10 0 527 11 0 528 12 10

29 13 100 14 0.00 20 15 0.00 20 16 150 17 15

19 18 0 10 19 0 1

20 1921 1922 0 2023 0 20

24 2225 2226 0 2127 0 2128 2629 26

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Kind NS S1 S2 S3 S4 S5 Row ColD 3 1 2 3 0 0 53 1D 2 18 19 0 0 0 30 5D 2 14 15 0 0 0 65 5T 0 0 0 0 0 0 77 5D 2 6 7 0 0 0 8 13D 2 10 11 0 0 0 23 13E 2 8 9 0 0 0 4 17T 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 17T 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 21T 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 21E 2 12 13 0 0 0 19 17T 0 0 0 0 0 0 27 17T 0 0 0 0 0 0 17 21

T 0 0 0 0 0 0 22 21T 0 0 0 0 0 0 62 9E 2 16 17 0 0 0 69 9T 0 0 0 0 0 0 67 13T 0 0 0 0 0 0 72 13E 2 4 5 0 0 0 15 9E 2 20 21 0 0 0 45 9D 2 22 23 0 0 0 38 13D 2 26 27 0 0 0 53 13E 2 24 25 0 0 0 34 17T 0 0 0 0 0 0 42 17

T 0 0 0 0 0 0 32 21T 0 0 0 0 0 0 37 21E 2 28 29 0 0 0 49 17T 0 0 0 0 0 0 57 17T 0 0 0 0 0 0 47 21T 0 0 0 0 0 0 52 21

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MarkTRUETRUETRUETRUETRUETRUETRUETRUETRUETRUETRUETRUETRUE

TRUETRUETRUETRUETRUETRUETRUETRUETRUETRUETRUE

TRUETRUETRUETRUETRUETRUE

8/10/2019 Blake Electronics

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Prior Probabilities Conditional probabilities from I&KP(Successful venture) = 0.60 P(Fav survey | Succes) = 0.90P(Unsuccessful venture) = 0.40 P(Unfav survey | Success) = 0.10

P(Fav survey | Failure) = 0.20

Probabilities from MAI P(Unfav survey | Failure) = 0.80P(Successful venture | Fav survey) = 0.70P(Unsuccessful venture | Fav survey) = 0.30 Posterior probabilities for I&K GIVEN Fav surveyP(Successful venture | Unfav survey) = 0.40 Conditional prob Prior JointP(Unsuccessful venture | Unfav survey) = 0.60 Outcome P(Fav survey | Outcome) prob probP(Favorable survey) = 0.50 Success 0.90 0.60 0.54P(Unfavorable survey) = 0.50 Failure 0.20 0.40 0.08

P(Fav survey) = 0.62

Posterior probabilities for I&K GIVEN pilot fails

Conditional prob Prior JointOutcome P(Unfav survey | Outcome) prob probSuccess 0.10 0.60 0.06

Case: Blake Electronics