Black Swan Based VM Placement and Migration Optimizations
-
Upload
marat-zhanikeev -
Category
Technology
-
view
295 -
download
2
description
Transcript of Black Swan Based VM Placement and Migration Optimizations
.
The Black Swan Property
M.Zhanikeev -- [email protected] -- Black Swan Based VM Placement and Migration Optimizations -- http://tinyurl.com/kyutech131018 --- 2/19...
2/19
.
The Black Swan
• theBlack Swanproperty is well known 01
• how common do you thinkblack swans are around theworld?
• are they common in Japan?
• I have two in a pond near myhome...
01 N.Taleb "The black swan: the impact of highly improbable" Penguin (2008)
M.Zhanikeev -- [email protected] -- Black Swan Based VM Placement and Migration Optimizations -- http://tinyurl.com/kyutech131018 --- 3/19...
3/19
.
The Black Swan : Illustration (trains)
• basically, rareevents have more
impact
Events (ordered by prob.)
Freq
uenc
y =
prob
abilit
y
Accounted for
Un-accountedfor
Scheduling Problem(±10m)
Humanaccident(±40m) Train brakes
down(±4h) 9.11, 3.11,
….(±3d)
M.Zhanikeev -- [email protected] -- Black Swan Based VM Placement and Migration Optimizations -- http://tinyurl.com/kyutech131018 --- 4/19...
4/19
.
The Black Swan : Convex is Bad
.Black Swan Property..
.
When complex systems have convex behavior in their components, they have blackswans.
• convex = Long Tail
• disasters hide in the Long Tail 09
• because disasters are rare, they are normally unaccounted 06
• when disasters happen, we are completely unprepared
09 R.Kennet+1 "Quality, Risk and the Taleb Quadrants" IBM Research (2009)
06 A.Nafday "Consequence-based stuctural design ... for black swan..." Elsevier ...Safety (2011)
M.Zhanikeev -- [email protected] -- Black Swan Based VM Placement and Migration Optimizations -- http://tinyurl.com/kyutech131018 --- 5/19...
5/19
.
Black Swan in Engineering
M.Zhanikeev -- [email protected] -- Black Swan Based VM Placement and Migration Optimizations -- http://tinyurl.com/kyutech131018 --- 6/19...
6/19
.
Two Ways to Handle Black Swans.Method 1..
.fast response ... when Black Swan is detected, react promptly
• popoular in Black Swan engineering today 05 06
.Method 2..
.
robust design• catch Black Swans before they happen
• this method today!
• not very popular in engineering
• the problem of noticability threshold05 L.McGinty+1 "Black Swans, Gray Cygnets and Other Rare Birds" Springer LNAI vol.5650 (2009)
06 A.Nafday "Consequence-based stuctural design ... for black swan..." Elsevier ...Safety (2011)
M.Zhanikeev -- [email protected] -- Black Swan Based VM Placement and Migration Optimizations -- http://tinyurl.com/kyutech131018 --- 7/19...
7/19
.
Black Swans in Clouds : the Model• each object in clouds (VM, etc.) gets asrankRk
Rk =∑i=1..t
wiFk(v, t) (1)
• risk potential of each object isPk Pk = |Rk,i − Rk,i−1|. (2)
• evaluation of riskE for a given system /collection of objects
E = var({Pk}), (3)
• evolution of evaluation in timeEVO EVO = var({Et}). (4)
• finally, optimization (minimization of risk) andstatistical evaluation of risks are possible
minimize∑i=1,n
∑j=1,m
Pij. (5)
• 2nd order norm and variance L̂ =
∫ K
0(K−x)f(x)dx and σ2
L =
∫ K
0(K−x)2f(x)dx.
(6)
M.Zhanikeev -- [email protected] -- Black Swan Based VM Placement and Migration Optimizations -- http://tinyurl.com/kyutech131018 --- 8/19...
8/19
.
Specific Black Swan Method forClouds
M.Zhanikeev -- [email protected] -- Black Swan Based VM Placement and Migration Optimizations -- http://tinyurl.com/kyutech131018 --- 9/19...
9/19
.
Black Swan in Clouds: Terminology
• VM : virtual machine◦ VMs can migrate when necessary 04◦ we assume that we can measure the load◦ or study traffic 02◦ ... or use any other method for performance measurement
• PM : physical machine in the a cloud◦ the load is the sum of VM loads
• APP : a multi-VM application
04 myself+1 "VM Migration Avoidance based on Flow Workload Classification" IEICEソサエティ学会 (2013)
02 1+myself "Active Network Measurement: Theory, Methods, and Tools" ITU Japan (2009)
M.Zhanikeev -- [email protected] -- Black Swan Based VM Placement and Migration Optimizations -- http://tinyurl.com/kyutech131018 --- 10/19...
10/19
.
VM Load : Flash Crowd Model
02 1+myself "Active Network Measurement: Theory, Methods, and Tools" ITU Japan (2009)
M.Zhanikeev -- [email protected] -- Black Swan Based VM Placement and Migration Optimizations -- http://tinyurl.com/kyutech131018 --- 11/19...
11/19
.
PM and APP Ranks
M.Zhanikeev -- [email protected] -- Black Swan Based VM Placement and Migration Optimizations -- http://tinyurl.com/kyutech131018 --- 12/19...
12/19
.
Simulation Setup• methods: do nothing, PM swans, and APP swans
• D : history depth (for E)
• p : per-VM probability of a Flash Crowd
• Lmin, Lmax, La : VM utilization levels and slope
• PMs : number of PMs, fixed at 30 (5x6) grid
• APPs : number of applications, each needs 3 VMs• R : how many fixes per epoch
• PM load to response time
T =1
2[(L− n) +
√(L− n)2 + k
1− L] (7)
◦ load above 0.9 considered dangerous (all VMs are impacted)
M.Zhanikeev -- [email protected] -- Black Swan Based VM Placement and Migration Optimizations -- http://tinyurl.com/kyutech131018 --- 13/19...
13/19
.
Models
1. do nothing◦ do not try to prevent Black Swans
2. PM swans◦ prevent Black Swans in PMs
3. APP swans◦ prevent Black Swans in APPs
M.Zhanikeev -- [email protected] -- Black Swan Based VM Placement and Migration Optimizations -- http://tinyurl.com/kyutech131018 --- 14/19...
14/19
.
Results : Snapshot 1 : Do Nothing
• several dark PMs can occur
• ... color is utilization
• raw PDF movie in separate file!
6 0 3 1 4
5 8 1 6 4
1 3 10 7 1
4 5 1 4 8
1 0 5 4 10
2 0 10 6 4Method#do.nothingEPOCH#387
VM LOAD
EVALS
3 JOBS
M.Zhanikeev -- [email protected] -- Black Swan Based VM Placement and Migration Optimizations -- http://tinyurl.com/kyutech131018 --- 15/19...
15/19
.
Results : Snapshot 2 : PM Swans
• better overall spread
• PDF movie separately!
0 1 8 3 4
4 5 4 3 0
9 6 3 4 1
3 1 4 7 2
6 4 6 4 6
1 1 3 4 6Method#PM.swansEPOCH#480
VM LOAD
EVALS
3 JOBS
M.Zhanikeev -- [email protected] -- Black Swan Based VM Placement and Migration Optimizations -- http://tinyurl.com/kyutech131018 --- 16/19...
16/19
.
Results : Snapshot 3 : APP Swans
• better overall spread
• PDF movie separately!
1 9 0 8 5
7 1 0 8 7
6 6 1 4 2
2 0 7 5 5
0 6 4 6 7
4 7 2 3 1Method#APP.swansEPOCH#465
VM LOAD
EVALS
3 JOBS
M.Zhanikeev -- [email protected] -- Black Swan Based VM Placement and Migration Optimizations -- http://tinyurl.com/kyutech131018 --- 17/19...
17/19
.
Results : Catching Swans (red dot!)
4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26Number of Group-Failed PMs (0..30)
00.20.40.60.8
11.21.41.61.8
22.22.42.6
log(
runs
bet
wee
n fa
ilure
s)D=10p=0.05APPs=30R=10
do.nothingPM.swansAPP.swans
M.Zhanikeev -- [email protected] -- Black Swan Based VM Placement and Migration Optimizations -- http://tinyurl.com/kyutech131018 --- 18/19...
18/19
.
That’s all, thank you ...
M.Zhanikeev -- [email protected] -- Black Swan Based VM Placement and Migration Optimizations -- http://tinyurl.com/kyutech131018 --- 19/19...
19/19
.
[01] N.Taleb (2008)The black swan: the impact of highly improbablePenguin
[02] 1+myself (2009)Active Network Measurement: Theory, Methods, and ToolsITU Japan
[03] myself+1 (2012)Popularity-Based Modeling of Flash Events in Synthetic Packet TracesIEICE CQ研
[04] myself+1 (2013)VM Migration Avoidance based on Flow Workload ClassificationIEICEソサエティ学会
[05] L.McGinty+1 (2009)Black Swans, Gray Cygnets and Other Rare BirdsSpringer LNAI vol.5650
M.Zhanikeev -- [email protected] -- Black Swan Based VM Placement and Migration Optimizations -- http://tinyurl.com/kyutech131018 --- 19/19...
19/19
.
[06] A.Nafday (2011)Consequence-based stuctural design ... for black swan...Elsevier ...Safety
[07] G.Wright+1 (2009)Decision making and planning ....low predictability......Journal of Forecasting
[08] T.Aven (2009)Identification of safety and security critical systems....Journal of Reliability...
[09] R.Kennet+1 (2009)Quality, Risk and the Taleb QuadrantsIBM Research
M.Zhanikeev -- [email protected] -- Black Swan Based VM Placement and Migration Optimizations -- http://tinyurl.com/kyutech131018 --- 19/19...
19/19