Chitra Ramanathan - Painter, Art educator, muralist: Mixed media -Collage
Black carbon & India - Ministry of Environment, Forest … Ramanathan.pdfBlack carbon & India V....
Transcript of Black carbon & India - Ministry of Environment, Forest … Ramanathan.pdfBlack carbon & India V....
![Page 1: Black carbon & India - Ministry of Environment, Forest … Ramanathan.pdfBlack carbon & India V. Ramanathan, Scripps Institution of Oceanography Environmental Ministry Meeting Hotel](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022030509/5ab960667f8b9ad3038df4d3/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Black carbon & India
V. Ramanathan, Scripps Institution of Oceanography
Environmental Ministry MeetingHotel Ashok, New Delhi, India, Oct 14, 2009
Oh, Mother earth, ocean-girdled and
mountain- breasted, pardon me for trampling on you. Sanskrit Prayer
![Page 2: Black carbon & India - Ministry of Environment, Forest … Ramanathan.pdfBlack carbon & India V. Ramanathan, Scripps Institution of Oceanography Environmental Ministry Meeting Hotel](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022030509/5ab960667f8b9ad3038df4d3/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Abstract. The infrared bands of chlorofluorocarbons and
chlorocarbons enhance the atmospheric greenhouse effect. This
enhancement may lead to an appreciable increase in the global surface
temperature if the atmospheric concentrations of these compounds reach
values of the order of 2 parts per billion.
1975
One molecule of CFC has the same greenhouse
effect as the addition of more than 10000 molecules of Carbon
Dioxide to the Atmosphere
![Page 3: Black carbon & India - Ministry of Environment, Forest … Ramanathan.pdfBlack carbon & India V. Ramanathan, Scripps Institution of Oceanography Environmental Ministry Meeting Hotel](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022030509/5ab960667f8b9ad3038df4d3/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Climate- Chemical Interactions due to Trace GasesRamanathan, V., 1980: in Interactions of Energy and Climate, (D. Reidel Publishing Co., 1980), pp. 269-280.
![Page 4: Black carbon & India - Ministry of Environment, Forest … Ramanathan.pdfBlack carbon & India V. Ramanathan, Scripps Institution of Oceanography Environmental Ministry Meeting Hotel](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022030509/5ab960667f8b9ad3038df4d3/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
The Non-CO2 trace gases contribute as
much as CO2 to the increase in
atmospheric Greenhouse effect:
Ramanathan et al, JGR, 1983
![Page 5: Black carbon & India - Ministry of Environment, Forest … Ramanathan.pdfBlack carbon & India V. Ramanathan, Scripps Institution of Oceanography Environmental Ministry Meeting Hotel](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022030509/5ab960667f8b9ad3038df4d3/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
1980
![Page 6: Black carbon & India - Ministry of Environment, Forest … Ramanathan.pdfBlack carbon & India V. Ramanathan, Scripps Institution of Oceanography Environmental Ministry Meeting Hotel](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022030509/5ab960667f8b9ad3038df4d3/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
“Unequivocal” Warming of the Planet: IPCC, 2001 &
2007
![Page 7: Black carbon & India - Ministry of Environment, Forest … Ramanathan.pdfBlack carbon & India V. Ramanathan, Scripps Institution of Oceanography Environmental Ministry Meeting Hotel](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022030509/5ab960667f8b9ad3038df4d3/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
![Page 8: Black carbon & India - Ministry of Environment, Forest … Ramanathan.pdfBlack carbon & India V. Ramanathan, Scripps Institution of Oceanography Environmental Ministry Meeting Hotel](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022030509/5ab960667f8b9ad3038df4d3/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
1900 1950 2000 2050 2100280
310
340
370
400
430
460
co
nce
ntr
atio
n(p
pm
)
1900 1950 2000 2050 21000
2
4
6
8
10
12
em
issi
on
(GT
/ye
ar)
Impact of Proposed CO2 Reductions in 2009 G8 MeetingRamanathan & Xu 2009
By 2050
440 ppm
1 Wm-2 Heating
0.8 C warming Commitedemission
Concentration
Observed
![Page 9: Black carbon & India - Ministry of Environment, Forest … Ramanathan.pdfBlack carbon & India V. Ramanathan, Scripps Institution of Oceanography Environmental Ministry Meeting Hotel](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022030509/5ab960667f8b9ad3038df4d3/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
There may be a way out:
Reduce short lived warming agents:
Black Carbon (<2 weeks); Ozone (< 2 months); Methane (<15 years)HFCs & HCFCs (<15 years)
Buy few decades time:
to develop transformational technologies for a
massive thinning of the GHGs blanket
![Page 10: Black carbon & India - Ministry of Environment, Forest … Ramanathan.pdfBlack carbon & India V. Ramanathan, Scripps Institution of Oceanography Environmental Ministry Meeting Hotel](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022030509/5ab960667f8b9ad3038df4d3/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Non-CO2 climate warmers
Contribution to 2005 forcing relative to CO2(1.66 Wm-2)
Greenhouse GasesOzone (troposphere) : 20% Methane : 30% Halocarbons : 20%
Particles (Aerosols)
Black Carbon : 27% to 55%*
(soot/smoke)_________________________________________Total Non-CO2 : 97% to 125%_________________________________________All numbers except the red are IPCC values; Long lived N2O not included* Ramanathan & Carmichael; 2008
![Page 11: Black carbon & India - Ministry of Environment, Forest … Ramanathan.pdfBlack carbon & India V. Ramanathan, Scripps Institution of Oceanography Environmental Ministry Meeting Hotel](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022030509/5ab960667f8b9ad3038df4d3/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Global Black Carbon Emissions 2000
(8 Mtons/Yr)
Non-Residential (Fossil Fuels) 2600 (33%)
Residential: Cooking and Heating 2050 (25%)
Bio-Fuels (1480); Coal & Diesel (565)
Open Burning:………………………. 3325 (42%)
Forest Fires (1240)Savanna Burning (1720)Crop Residues ( 325)
Source: Bond et al, 2004; Uncertainty: about a factor of 2 or
more
![Page 12: Black carbon & India - Ministry of Environment, Forest … Ramanathan.pdfBlack carbon & India V. Ramanathan, Scripps Institution of Oceanography Environmental Ministry Meeting Hotel](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022030509/5ab960667f8b9ad3038df4d3/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
0
0.5
1
1.5
USA EU
OECD
EU
EAST
ASIA
SOUTH
ASIA
EAST
0
0.5
1
1.5
USA EU
OECD
EU
EAST
ASIA
SOUTH
ASIA
EAST
Kg
/Ca
pit
aE
mis
sio
ns
(T
g/y
r)BC emission
BC Emission/Capita
1
1
0.5
0.5
Ref: Ramanathan and Feng, 2008;Data source: Bond et al 2004
![Page 13: Black carbon & India - Ministry of Environment, Forest … Ramanathan.pdfBlack carbon & India V. Ramanathan, Scripps Institution of Oceanography Environmental Ministry Meeting Hotel](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022030509/5ab960667f8b9ad3038df4d3/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Indian Ocean Experiment:
Europe/ India/ USA Collaboration
Lead Funding Agencies:
NSF; ISRO; MPI
Lead Institutions:
Scripps Inst. Of Oceanography;
Univ of California at San Diego,
USA
National Physical Laboratory, New
Delhi, India
Max Planck Inst for Chemie, Mainz,
Germany
Pis: Ramanathan, Crutzen & Mitra
![Page 14: Black carbon & India - Ministry of Environment, Forest … Ramanathan.pdfBlack carbon & India V. Ramanathan, Scripps Institution of Oceanography Environmental Ministry Meeting Hotel](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022030509/5ab960667f8b9ad3038df4d3/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Ramanathan et al, Nature, 2007.
![Page 15: Black carbon & India - Ministry of Environment, Forest … Ramanathan.pdfBlack carbon & India V. Ramanathan, Scripps Institution of Oceanography Environmental Ministry Meeting Hotel](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022030509/5ab960667f8b9ad3038df4d3/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Dec 27, 2002
A Brown Cloud in LA
![Page 16: Black carbon & India - Ministry of Environment, Forest … Ramanathan.pdfBlack carbon & India V. Ramanathan, Scripps Institution of Oceanography Environmental Ministry Meeting Hotel](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022030509/5ab960667f8b9ad3038df4d3/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
ABCs: How do they influence climate ?ABCs: How do they influence climate ?• The absorption of solar
radiation by the surface and
the atmosphere is the
fundamental driver for the
physical climate system , for
atmospheric chemistry, and
for all life on the planet.
• ABCs have altered this forcing
significantly
Sulfates: Reflect sunlight like mirrors and cool
Soot: Traps sunlight and heats the air
2%
2% 17%
11%7%
12%
11%
26%
12%
Black carbon
Organics
NH4+
SO4=
K+
Sea-salt & NO3-
MISS
Ash
Dust
![Page 17: Black carbon & India - Ministry of Environment, Forest … Ramanathan.pdfBlack carbon & India V. Ramanathan, Scripps Institution of Oceanography Environmental Ministry Meeting Hotel](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022030509/5ab960667f8b9ad3038df4d3/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
b
What does black carbon look like?
Ramanathan et al, 2001
Arabian Sea
Polluted
Southern Indian
Ocean, 6S
Polluted
Clean air;
Southern
Indian
Ocean,
8S
![Page 18: Black carbon & India - Ministry of Environment, Forest … Ramanathan.pdfBlack carbon & India V. Ramanathan, Scripps Institution of Oceanography Environmental Ministry Meeting Hotel](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022030509/5ab960667f8b9ad3038df4d3/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Back Scattering (Cooling)
Absorption
(Atmospheric Warming)
Dimming of Surface
Surface Cooling
Absorption
(Column
Warming)
Suppression of Rain; Forward Scattering
![Page 19: Black carbon & India - Ministry of Environment, Forest … Ramanathan.pdfBlack carbon & India V. Ramanathan, Scripps Institution of Oceanography Environmental Ministry Meeting Hotel](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022030509/5ab960667f8b9ad3038df4d3/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
BC Global Radiative Forcing Estimates:
![Page 20: Black carbon & India - Ministry of Environment, Forest … Ramanathan.pdfBlack carbon & India V. Ramanathan, Scripps Institution of Oceanography Environmental Ministry Meeting Hotel](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022030509/5ab960667f8b9ad3038df4d3/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Masking of Global Warming: 2002{A Synthesis of ground, aircraft and satellite observations}
Chung, Ramanathan, Kim, Podgorny,2005
Dimming : Mirrors & BC
Heating of Blanket by BC & Others
![Page 21: Black carbon & India - Ministry of Environment, Forest … Ramanathan.pdfBlack carbon & India V. Ramanathan, Scripps Institution of Oceanography Environmental Ministry Meeting Hotel](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022030509/5ab960667f8b9ad3038df4d3/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
IABCs have led to large dimming over Asia;At least by 6% over China and India
India : Kumari et al, IITM (2007) China: FU et al (2006)
OBSERVED DIMMING TRENDS OVER INDIA ND CHINA
![Page 22: Black carbon & India - Ministry of Environment, Forest … Ramanathan.pdfBlack carbon & India V. Ramanathan, Scripps Institution of Oceanography Environmental Ministry Meeting Hotel](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022030509/5ab960667f8b9ad3038df4d3/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Guatam et al. (2009)
![Page 23: Black carbon & India - Ministry of Environment, Forest … Ramanathan.pdfBlack carbon & India V. Ramanathan, Scripps Institution of Oceanography Environmental Ministry Meeting Hotel](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022030509/5ab960667f8b9ad3038df4d3/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
A Fully Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model Study from1870 to 2025; Five Ensemble Runs:
The NCAR Parallel Climate Model;GHG gas and volcanic forcing from 1870;ABC forcing from INDOEX and past emissions histories
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, April 2005
![Page 24: Black carbon & India - Ministry of Environment, Forest … Ramanathan.pdfBlack carbon & India V. Ramanathan, Scripps Institution of Oceanography Environmental Ministry Meeting Hotel](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022030509/5ab960667f8b9ad3038df4d3/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Year
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Flu
x (
W m
-2)
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
Shortwave
Longwave
Latent Heat
Sensible Heat
Year
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Flu
x (
W m
-2)
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
ABC_1998 ( -0.29 Wm-2
/yr)
GEBA ( -0.29 Wm-2
/yr)
ABC_1998
(Annual mean over India)
ABC_1998
(Annual mean over Indian Ocean)
A)A)A)A)
B)B)B)B)
Solar Radiation at theSurface: Simulated
And Observed
Simulated
Observed
The Dimming Led to a Decrease in EvaporationFrom Indian Ocean
South Asian Dimming
Source: Ramanathan et al, Proceedings of National Academy of Sciences, March 2005
(12 stations)
![Page 25: Black carbon & India - Ministry of Environment, Forest … Ramanathan.pdfBlack carbon & India V. Ramanathan, Scripps Institution of Oceanography Environmental Ministry Meeting Hotel](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022030509/5ab960667f8b9ad3038df4d3/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Observed Trend in Indian Ocean Surface
Temperatures 1951 to 2002Chung & Ramanathan J Clim, 2006
SS
T T
ren
d (
K)
Cleaner SIO Polluted NIO
GHG Warming
Brown cloud cooling
SOUTH North
![Page 26: Black carbon & India - Ministry of Environment, Forest … Ramanathan.pdfBlack carbon & India V. Ramanathan, Scripps Institution of Oceanography Environmental Ministry Meeting Hotel](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022030509/5ab960667f8b9ad3038df4d3/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Smoothed Indian rainfall
(June-September mean)
A)
Changes in Summer Monsoon Rainfall averaged over India
Ramanathan et al 2005
![Page 27: Black carbon & India - Ministry of Environment, Forest … Ramanathan.pdfBlack carbon & India V. Ramanathan, Scripps Institution of Oceanography Environmental Ministry Meeting Hotel](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022030509/5ab960667f8b9ad3038df4d3/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Model Prediction: ABCs induced dimming is likely to increaseFrequency of droughts during 2000 to 2030
Ramanathan et al, 2005
![Page 28: Black carbon & India - Ministry of Environment, Forest … Ramanathan.pdfBlack carbon & India V. Ramanathan, Scripps Institution of Oceanography Environmental Ministry Meeting Hotel](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022030509/5ab960667f8b9ad3038df4d3/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Hindu Kush-Himalayan-Tibetan Glaciers: Water Fountain of Asia
![Page 29: Black carbon & India - Ministry of Environment, Forest … Ramanathan.pdfBlack carbon & India V. Ramanathan, Scripps Institution of Oceanography Environmental Ministry Meeting Hotel](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022030509/5ab960667f8b9ad3038df4d3/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
RecoveringFrom little-
ice age
Land degradation
Dust Loading
Greenhousegases
AtmosphericWarming
Atmospheric Brow Cloudsi.e., Aerosols
Black Carbon;Brown Carbon;
Ozone
BC deposition on snow &
ice
More precip as rain;More intense precipDimming;
Less precip
Multiple Stressors on Glaciers and snowpacks
MonsoonVariability
![Page 30: Black carbon & India - Ministry of Environment, Forest … Ramanathan.pdfBlack carbon & India V. Ramanathan, Scripps Institution of Oceanography Environmental Ministry Meeting Hotel](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022030509/5ab960667f8b9ad3038df4d3/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
1961 to 2006 Trend
![Page 31: Black carbon & India - Ministry of Environment, Forest … Ramanathan.pdfBlack carbon & India V. Ramanathan, Scripps Institution of Oceanography Environmental Ministry Meeting Hotel](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022030509/5ab960667f8b9ad3038df4d3/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
Back Scattering (Cooling)ABCs surround the Himalayas
ABC-Pyramid Station; Base CampMt Everest; Fuzzi et al 08
NASA, CALYPSO LIDARRamanathan et al, 2007
![Page 32: Black carbon & India - Ministry of Environment, Forest … Ramanathan.pdfBlack carbon & India V. Ramanathan, Scripps Institution of Oceanography Environmental Ministry Meeting Hotel](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022030509/5ab960667f8b9ad3038df4d3/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
DJF-0.05
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3T
ren
d D
iffe
ren
ce
(K
/de
ca
de
)Differential Temp Trend: Trop - Surface
MicrowaveSounder
GCM- withGHGs+ABCs
GCM with GHGs
Ramanathan et al 2005
Observed Tropospheric Temp
Trend: 1979-2007
Gautam et al, GRL, 2009
![Page 33: Black carbon & India - Ministry of Environment, Forest … Ramanathan.pdfBlack carbon & India V. Ramanathan, Scripps Institution of Oceanography Environmental Ministry Meeting Hotel](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022030509/5ab960667f8b9ad3038df4d3/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
![Page 34: Black carbon & India - Ministry of Environment, Forest … Ramanathan.pdfBlack carbon & India V. Ramanathan, Scripps Institution of Oceanography Environmental Ministry Meeting Hotel](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022030509/5ab960667f8b9ad3038df4d3/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
35
Health Burdon Of ABCs Is Enormous
~800,000 excess deaths per year (in USA >50,000 deaths; $100B/yr)
Strong Motivator For Change!
No region is immune!
![Page 35: Black carbon & India - Ministry of Environment, Forest … Ramanathan.pdfBlack carbon & India V. Ramanathan, Scripps Institution of Oceanography Environmental Ministry Meeting Hotel](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022030509/5ab960667f8b9ad3038df4d3/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
Smoke and BC have Major Impacts on Health; Water Security and Food Security
•Greatest advantage for Policy Actions 1. Short Lived in the air ( about a week or less)2. Immediate response to mitigation laws
3. Response felt locally by improved air quality
4. Will reduce fatalities due to indoor and outdoor air pollution
![Page 36: Black carbon & India - Ministry of Environment, Forest … Ramanathan.pdfBlack carbon & India V. Ramanathan, Scripps Institution of Oceanography Environmental Ministry Meeting Hotel](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022030509/5ab960667f8b9ad3038df4d3/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
Suggested Approach
Mitigation Technology is Available
1)Start with Fossil Fuel BC: Major reductions
Diesel Particle Filters are in Market$250 Euros for diesel passenger car
More than 99% reduction in BC
2)Initiate mitigation of Biofuel Cooking
But Science is needed to refine numbers
![Page 37: Black carbon & India - Ministry of Environment, Forest … Ramanathan.pdfBlack carbon & India V. Ramanathan, Scripps Institution of Oceanography Environmental Ministry Meeting Hotel](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022030509/5ab960667f8b9ad3038df4d3/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
New Delhi’s Pioneering Efforts
Switching to LPG resulted in:
Increase in CO2
Increase in Methane
But, when black carbon reductions
from Buses were accounted for,
There was on overall reduction in
CO2 of
300,000 tons of CO2 Eq.
Env Sci & Technology, 2008
![Page 38: Black carbon & India - Ministry of Environment, Forest … Ramanathan.pdfBlack carbon & India V. Ramanathan, Scripps Institution of Oceanography Environmental Ministry Meeting Hotel](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022030509/5ab960667f8b9ad3038df4d3/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
a) Baseline BC AOD for 2004/05
b) BC AOD without biofuels
Fire
woo
d
Ramanathan and Balakrishnan, 2007Ramanathan and Carmichael, 2008
Rural Cooking
Biogas plants
converts organic
waste into gas
Parabolic solar
cooker
![Page 39: Black carbon & India - Ministry of Environment, Forest … Ramanathan.pdfBlack carbon & India V. Ramanathan, Scripps Institution of Oceanography Environmental Ministry Meeting Hotel](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022030509/5ab960667f8b9ad3038df4d3/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
Lead Institutions
TERI, DelhiSri Ramchandra Univ, ChennaiJNU, DelhiUCLAUCSD