Bits (Sell Recommendation)
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Transcript of Bits (Sell Recommendation)
Michael AndersonDavid BeamishS. Raj RajagopalShang Yen SeeJuan Velandia
Fundamentally overvalued
Positioning of business lines limits growth potential
Operational concerns
SELL BITSTREAM
2
3
Source: Proprietary research
Font TechnologyRevenue: $6.1MMGross Margin: 86%
MyFontsRevenue: $9.6MMGross Margin: 26%
PageFlexRevenue: $6.7MMGross Margin: 83%
BOLT BrowserRevenue: $0.1MMGross Margin: 20-60%
‘08 Revenue Disclosures
‘09E Revenue Breakdown
Font Tech27%
MyFonts43%
Pageflex30%
BOLT<1%
Software Licenses
79%
Services21%
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
Da
ily
Vo
lum
e (
100
00
)
High Volume Buying
4
3
4
5
6
7
8
Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10
BITS Nasdaq
BITS stock price ‘08 to present
2 year mean daily volume
Source: Capital IQ
Allocation of resources
R&D ramp up
Insufficient focus on sales/marketing
Conservative corporate culture
Historic strategy has limited exposure to growing international markets
Excess cash not deployed Showing lack of growth opportunities
5
Weaknesses
0
20
40
60
80
100
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
Employees per division
R&D Sales & Marketing Admin
Source: Bitstream website
6
2.9%
5.5%
19.0%
16.2%
13.5%
9.2%
7.4%
Asia Pacific
Middle East and Africa
Latin America
Australasia
Eastern Europe
Western Europe
North America
Industry Display Device Sales, 2008-2013 CAGR
Source: Euromoniter
0%20%40%60%80%
100%
North America Europe Rest of world
Minority duopolist with Monotype Less than 15% market share Highly dependent on one customer
FreeType has over 80% share Free open-source software Comparable performance to BITS Google funding FreeType R&D
Inferior product offering to Monotype in Asian markets
Not exposed to fastest growing e-reader products (e.g., Kindle, Nook and iPad)
Source: Company reports and proprietary research
BITS Geographical Revenue Mix
Display Devices
Printers
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.5MM
1.MM
1.5MM
2.MM
2.5MM
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
200
9
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Revenue growth rate flat
7
MyFonts operates in a highly competitive niche online market
Management has historically only revealed user growth numbers, not revenue growth
Revenue per user has actually been falling due to: Increased use by non professional
casual users The resale of lower margin third-party
fonts have increased ahead of proprietary fonts
Source: Company reports and proprietary research
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.5MM
1.MM
1.5MM
2.MM
2.5MM
$0.0
$5.0
$10.0
$15.0
$20.0
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Revenue per user
Users
Users
Revenue growth rate
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Yo
YG
row
th r
ate
s
8
Pageflex operates in the highly fragmented data publishing market
Revenue driven by advertising spend in old and new media
Limited growth opportunities Historic connection to old media
Product characteristics Product is not the low cost solution
nor user friendly
Source: Mintel, Advertising Age and proprietary research
New Media
Pageflex
30%
70%
Old Media (e.g. Print) New Media (e.g. Email)
Pageflex Media Exposure
Old Media
Old media exposure limits growth
User behavior in flux AdMob Google, Quattro Apple
Monetization doubtful Mobile advertising in infancy
Highly competitive industry Opera, Mozilla Firefox
No bargaining power Wireless carriers control sales channel
Handset makers control platform
Better substitutes iPhone apps, Nokia Ovi, Google Android
No barrier to entry BOLT based on free ‘WebKit’ open source
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License Revenue
Advertising Revenue
Mill
ion
s
BOLT User Growth Forecast
BITS Revenue Mix Forecast 2013
Other Business
Lines, 86%
BOLT, 14%
0
10
20
30
40
50
2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E
Source: Proprietary research
Source: Proprietary research
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
Sto
ck P
rice
(U
S $
) Current Price
Target Price
Bullish
Bearish
Valuation Results by Methodology
DCF P/E Residual Income
Take Out Analysis
10
(8.4 - 13.4% WACC) (15 – 20x)
(2 – 3x Sales)(2 - 4% T. Growth)
(25%)
Only 6% Upside
(20 – 60% EPS CAGR)
Potential takeover Low Blackberry recently bought a mobile browser
Adobe and Monotype have superior technology
Major deal with handset maker / wireless carrier
Very Low BITS lacks the infrastructure and organization
No prior experience with global carriers
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MitigantsRisks Probability
Fundamentally overvalued
Positioning of business lines limits growth potential
Operational concerns
SELL BITSTREAM
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