Bioversity Dixon Li 2008 AprSLP Addis Biofuels Livestock Final
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Transcript of Bioversity Dixon Li 2008 AprSLP Addis Biofuels Livestock Final
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Feed, food and fuel:
competition and potential impacts in small
crop-livestock-energy farming systems
A Study comm issioned by the System-wide Livestock Program
Presented by John Dixon, Xiaoyun L i
on behalf of the task team
System -wide Livestock Program Workshop
Addis, Ethiopia 29 Apr i l, 2008
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An act ive 9-center task team
CIMMYT: John Dixon, Xiaoyun Li, Judit Szonyi
IFPRI: Siwa Msangi, Betina Dimaranan;
IWMI: Amede Tilahun, Deborah Bossio;
ICRISAT: Belum VS Reddy;
IITA: Robert Abaidoo;
ILRI: Mario Herrero;
IRRI: Jagadish Timsina;
CIP: Charles Crissman, Victor Mares, Robert Quiroz, Carlos
Leon-Velarde;
CIAT: Hernan Ceballos, Michael Peters, Douglas White,
Bernardo Ospina, Reinhardt Howeler
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Contents
Background
Study objectives, framework
Preliminary results for feedback
Policy and research priorities
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Backg round : renewable energy
investment, 2006
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Background: Biofuel product ion
United
States
Brazil China India Total
36% 33% 7.5% 3.7% 80.2%
Bioethanol production
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Projected US maize use for b io-ethano l(doubling 2006-2016)
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The study
Objectives
International market responses
Resource and environment dynamics
Potential impacts on crop-livestock-
energy systems
Policy and research priorities
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Analyze the present situation of biofuel production in
relation to agriculture in developing countries
Identify and profile typical local crop-livestock-energy
farming systems (CLEFS)
Estimate international market responses
Assess the resource and environmental dynamics
Assess the biofuel impact on small crop-livestock systems
and households
Identify policy implications and research priorities
Object ives
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Schemat ic pathways from bio -fuel to
l ivestoc k and l ivelihood
Bio-fuels
Household
livelihood
Crops
Livestock
Market
Environment
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FAO dietary energy sou rces %
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Crop -l ivestock farm ing systems
Resources, market access
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Crop -l ivestock farm ing systems
Poverty
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Crop -l ivestock farm ing systems
Ruminant and poultry density
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Crop -l ivestock farm ing systems
Crop production cf livestock
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Crop -l ivestock farm ing systems
Human consumption: cereal cf animal products
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Prel im inary resu l ts
International market responses
Resource and environmental dynamics
Potential impacts: crop-livestock-energy
systems and household livelihoods
Policy and research priorities
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International market responses
World crop food and livestock products demand
Crop food Wheat Rice Maize Cassava Sugarcane SorghumYear 15 30 15 30 15 30 15 30 15 30 15 30(Million ton) 453 532 381 415 117 133 147 177 144 174 28 36Livestock
ProductBeef Pork Lamb Poultry Eggs Milk
(Million ton) 76 99 114 131 17 24 93 123 60 69 345 414
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International market responses
Projected demand for feedstock commodities for biofuel at 2020
(Thousand ton)
Note: *Rest of the world.
Crop Region Baseline Business asusual
AggressiveCassava ROW* 660 6,842 13,684
Europe 97 1,086 2,173ROW 2,021 20,511 41,023
MaizeUSA 35,000 130,000 260,000Brazil 16 153 306Europe 1,563 14,572 29,144ROW 530 4,211 8,423
Oil
SeedsUSA 354 3,017 6,034Brazil 834 9,014 18,029ROW 163 1,797 3,595SugarUSA 265 3,450 6,900Europe 1,242 10,703 21,407WheatROW 205 2,342 4,685
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International market responses
world prices of key feedstock crops
Note: *Rest of the world.010
20304050607080
Cassava Maize Oil seeds Sugar WheatBiofuel expansion Drastic biofuel expansion
PriceChange
s(%)
Source: IFPRI IMPACT projections
Increase is over the 2020 baseline levels
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International market responses
livestock commodity price under biofuel scenarios,By 2020
Note: *Rest of the world. 0500
1,000
1,500
2,0002,500
3,000
3,500
Beef
Pork
Lamb
Poult
ryEg
gs Milk
US$perton
2000 Business as usual Aggressive
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Resource and environment dynam ics
Biofuels impacts on land, water andgreenhouse gases are the three main
environment concerns with large scale
development of biofuels.
If all national policies and plans on biofuels aresuccessfully implemented, 30 million additional
hectares of crop land will be needed along with
180 km3of additional irrigation water
withdrawals. Biofuel impacts on carbon savings and GHGs
emission depend on how they are produced.
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Some detai l : biofuels land and
water use
Total cropped area
for biofuels
Total crop ET for
biofuels
total irrigation
withdrawals for biofuels
2005 2030 2005 2030 2005 2030
USA, Canada 4.60% 9.00% 5.10% 11.00% 4.10% 20.00%
EU 1.30% 28.00% 1.50% 17.00% 0.00% 1.00%
China 1.10% 4.00% 1.50% 4.00% 2.20% 7.00%
India 0.20% 1.00% 0.50% 3.00% 1.20% 5.00%
S-Africa n.a. n.a. 2.80% 12.00% 9.80% 30.00%
Brazil 5.00% 7.00% 10.70% 14.00% 3.50% 8.00%
Indonesia 0.10% 0.00% 0.30% 1.00% 3.50% 7.00%World 0.90% 3.00% 1.40% 3.00% 1.10% 4.00%
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Potent ial crop effects
Under the different scenarios of biofuel expansion, crop
areas and production practices are expected to change,
including grain and residue prices, the consumption
basket, crop substitutions, land and water use, cultivars
selection and field management.
While maize and sugarcane dominate bioethanol
feedstock use at present, some diversification of
bioethanol (and biodiesel) feedstocks is expected by 2030.
Moreover, while there are strong pressures for
intensification because of the strong demand for cereals,water and nutrient use efficiency is expected to rise as
water and fertilizer prices rise relative to grain prices
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Some detai l : po tent ia l crop effects
An example maize mixed crop-livestock systemin SSAFirst generation Second generation
ImpactsBusiness-as-usual Aggressive Business-as-usual Aggressive
Maize pric e Increase Great increase Less increase impact for maize stover
Maize grain consump tion
fo r food Decline Dramatic decline Even Even
for feed No change No change Even Even
for biofuel feedstock increase Dramatic increase Even Even
Maize stover use Fodder, soil fertilizer Fodder, soil fertilizer Competition for biofuel Competition for biofuel
Crop subst i tu t ions Other crops to maize Dramatic convertion No change Use marginal land
Crop system change May change Change No change No change
Land and water
prov is ionTense More tense Alleviate Alleviate
Cult ivars selection
Yield, nutrition,
drought and disease
tolerance
High yield and
nutrition, drought
and disease
tolerance
High biomass, nutrition,
drought and disease
tolerance
High biomass, nutrition,
drought and disease
tolerance
Field managementfertilizer use, and
residue management
fertilizer use, and
residue management
fertilizer use, and
residue management
fertilizer use, and
residue management
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Pressu re po ints on crop-l ivestoc k farm ing sys tems
Crop competition
Feed and fodder biofuel pressure pointExample
countries maize grain roots or stems Crop residues pasture
Farming system
2015 2030 2015 2030 2015 2030 2015 2030
maize mixed crop-livestock Kenya Major Medium x x Minor Major x x
wheat based crop- livestock Turkey Medium Minor x x Minor Minor x x
sorghum-based crop-livestock India Minor Minor Major Major Minor Minor x x
cassava/ crop-livestock Nigeria x x Major Minor Major Major x x
sugarcane/ crop-livestock Brazil x x Minor Minor Minor Major x Major
oil palm/ crop-livestock Indonesia x x x x x x x x
Cereal-livestock Brazil x x x x x Major x Major
livestock dominant Argentina x x x x x Major x Major
rice-based crop-livestock China Major Minor x x Minor Major x x
rice-based crop-livestock India Major Minor x x Minor Major x x
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Impacts on livestock
By 2015, without crop yield growth an increase in grain prices
leads to a reduction in feedgrains -- with greater impacts in
more the more intensive crop-livestock systems (e.g., dairy)
By 2030, with widespread second generation biofuel production,the focus of competition shifts to biomassand impacts depend
on the cost of harvesting biomass for bioethanol, i.e., economics
of bioethanol vs economics of ruminant production. The
aggregate effect is likely to be reduction in biomass availability
for ruminant fodder.
In densely populated systems which lack alternative fodder
resources, a reduction in ruminant production is expected or a
(further) shift to intensive grain based feeding systems.
In pasture-based systems may be less affect unless competition
arises from cropping
Potent ia l impacts on crop-l ivestoc k farming sy stems
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Potent ial impacts on crop -l ivestock systems
Intensification, diversification
Farming system Example
countries
Land resource
constraints
Market
access
Intensi-
fication
Diversi-
fication
maize mixed crop-livestock Kenya 0.5 8.4 2 3
wheat based crop- livestock Turkey 0.5 2.9 Na Na
sorghum-based crop-livestock India 0.7 9.8 2.5 2
cassava/ crop-livestock Nigeria 0.4 7.0 3.5 2
sugarcane/ crop-livestock Brazil 0.5 2.5 2 4
oil palm/ crop-livestock Indonesia 0.9 15.6 Na NaCereal-livestock Brazil 0.3 4.1 0 1
livestock dominant Argentina 0.2 3.3 3 2
rice-based crop-livestock China 0.5 3.2 1 4
rice-based crop-livestock India 0.4 2.3 2 3
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Pol icy impl icat ions and
research prio r i t ies
Policy implications
Research priorities
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Pol icy impl icat ions
Foster widespread use of second generation bioethanol
production
Reduce, amend, or even eliminate biofuels trade barriers
Avoid aggressive biofuel expansion through subsidies which
runs ahead of the availability of proven sustainable
feedstock and biofuel production technologies
Target rate of expansion of biofuels to the particular
agricultural resource base and crop-livestock-energy
systems as well as available technologies of each country
Encourage small and medium size feedstock farmers and
also small scale biofuel technologies
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Research prior i t ies
Life cycle analyses (LCA)
Biofuel value chain and local markets study
Strategic assessment and targeting
Early warning system in hotspots
Integrated crop-livestock-energy models
Management of crop residues
Local innovation and learning
Sense-act-observe-adjust
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