Biomedical Longevity Revolution and its

Consequences

Dr. Leonid A. Gavrilov, Ph.D.Dr. Natalia S. Gavrilova, Ph.D.

Center on Aging NORC and the University of Chicago

Chicago, Illinois, USA

Trends in Life Expectancy at 60Females

Source: Human Mortality Database

Longevity Revolution through Biotechnology and genetic

engineering "... it may soon be

possible to delay both aging and age-related disease in humans." (p. 162)

The Longevity Revolution: The Benefits and Challenges of Living a Long Life. By Robert N. Butler. 553 pp. New York, PublicAffairs, 2008

Longevity Revolution (2)

"The present level of

development of aging and longevity research justifies an Apollo-type effort to control aging ...” (p. 187)

Longevity Revolution (3)

"Enthusiasts over the future of cell, tissue, and organ replacement imagine successive, comprehensive reconstitutions of the body. Replacement or regenerative medicine would push death back, presumably indefinitely.“ (p. 401)

Longevity Revolution (4)

" "Indeed, some believe that humans can master their evolution. Among them is Aubrey de Grey of Cambridge University, who suggests a life expectancy of five thousand years by 2100 [17].“ (pp. 13-14)

New academic journal on life-extension and

rejuvenation

Fully indexed by MEDLINE

Latest Impact Factor* is 4.138

Why Longevity Revolution may be delayed?

Because it requires serious funding and commitment: "It is sheer foolishness to imagine that we can

extend life ... without substantial governmental participation" (p. 11)

“… in 2007 only about 15 to 20 percent of approved grants were funded, depending on the institute. I believe that at least 30 percent of approved grants (if not more) should be funded. ... When funds are tight, review committees act too cautiously and conservatively. Funds should be available to support risky research.“ (p.106)

Why Longevity Revolution may be delayed? (2)

“Today less than 1 percent of the entire federal budget is spent on medical research. Both to improve health and control costs, I propose that 3 percent of the nation's overall health bill ($1.8 trillion projected as 2005) or $54 billion be available to NIH for medical research from federal revenues. I also propose that of Medicare expenditures, 1 percent (or $3 billion) be devoted to the National Institute on Aging. (p.110)

Why Longevity Revolution may be delayed? (3)

“While the numbers I am suggesting may seem extraordinary, I believe the level of scientific progress in the field since the 1950s justifies such a program, which could be dubbed the Apollo Program for Aging and Longevity Science.“ (p.110)

"An orbital jump in financing of science is required to advance longevity and health as well as national wealth.“ (p. 118 - 119)

Reference: The Longevity Revolution: The Benefits and Challenges of Living a Long Life. By Robert N. Butler. 553 pp. New York, PublicAffairs, 2008

General Prediction

Effective life-extending technologies may appear within our lifetime

However they will be initially expensive and not readily available

Therefore, 'longevity risk' will be particularly high for persons who are HEWM: Healthy (at baseline) Educated Wealthy Motivated

It is conceivable that such HEWM people may reach life expectancy of about 120 years in a foreseeable future.

What May Happenin the Case of Radical

Life Extension?

Rationale of our study A common objection against starting a large-scale

biomedical war on aging is the fear of catastrophic population consequences (overpopulation)

Rationale (continued)

This fear is only exacerbated by the fact that no detailed demographic projections for radical life extension scenario were conducted so far.

What would happen with population numbers if aging-related deaths are significantly postponed or even eliminated?

Is it possible to have a sustainable population dynamics in a future hypothetical non-aging society?

The Purpose of this Study

This study explores different demographic scenarios and population projections, in order to clarify what could be the demographic consequences of a successful biomedical war on aging.

"Worst" Case Scenario: Immortality

Consider the "worst" case scenario (for overpopulation) -- physical immortality (no deaths at all)

What would happen with population numbers, then?

A common sense and intuition says that there should be a demographic catastrophe, if immortal people continue to reproduce.

But what would the science (mathematics) say

?

The case of immortal population

Suppose that parents produce less than two children on average, so that each next generation is smaller: Generation (n+1) Generation n

Then even if everybody is immortal, the final size of the population will not be infinite, but just

larger than the initial population.

= r < 1

1/(1 - r)

The case of immortal population

For example one-child practice (r = 0.5) will only double the total immortal population:

Proof:

Infinite geometric series converge if the absolute value of the common ratio ( r ) is less than one:

1 + r + r2 + r3 + … + rn + … = 1/(1-r)

1/(1 - r) = 1/0.5 = 2

Lesson to be Learned Fears of overpopulation based on lay

common sense and uneducated intuition could be exaggerated.

Immortality, the joy of parenting, and sustainable population size, are not mutually exclusive.

This is because a population of immortal reproducing organisms will grow indefinitely in time, but not necessarily indefinitely in size (asymptotic growth is possible).

Method of population projection

Cohort-component method of population projection (standard demographic approach)

Age-specific fertility is assumed to remain unchanged over time, to study mortality effects only

No migration assumed, because of the focus on natural increase or decline of the population

New population projection software is developed using Microsoft Excel macros

Study population: Sweden 2005

Mortality in the study population

Population projection without life extension interventions

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

8,000,000

9,000,000

10,000,000

2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065 2075 2085 2095 2105

year

Po

pu

latio

n s

ize.

Beginning of population decline after 2025

Projected changes in population pyramid 100 years later

Why Life-Extension is a Part of the Solution, rather than a Problem

Many developed countries (like the studied Sweden) face dramatic decline in native-born population in the future (see earlier graphs) , and also risk to lose their cultural identity due to massive immigration.

Therefore, extension of healthy lifespan in these countries may in fact prevent, rather than create a demographic catastrophe.

Scenario 1Modest scenario:

Continuous mortality decline

Mortality continues to decline with the same pace as before (2 percent per year)

Changes in Mortality, 1925-2007

Swedish Females. Data source: Human Mortality Database

Age

0 20 40 60 80 100

Lo

g (

Ha

zard

Ra

te)

10-4

10-3

10-2

10-11925196019852007

Modest scenario:Continuous mortality

decline

An example for Swedish females.

Median life span increases from 86 years in 2005 to 102 years in 2105

Data Source: Human mortality database

0.000001

0.00001

0.0001

0.001

0.01

0.1

1

0 20 40 60 80 100

Age

log

(mo

rtal

ity r

ate)

2005

2105

Population projection with continuous mortality decline

scenario

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

8,000,000

9,000,000

10,000,000

2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065 2075 2085 2095 2105

year

Po

pu

latio

n s

ize.

no change change

Changes in population pyramid 100 years later

Sweden 2105, Standard projection

60000 40000 20000 0 20000 40000 60000

1

11

21

31

41

51

61

71

81

91

101

111

121

131

141

151

161

171

181

Men Women

Sweden 2105, Continuous mortality decline

60000 40000 20000 0 20000 40000 60000

1

11

21

31

41

51

61

71

81

91

101

111

121

131

141

151

161

171

181

Men Women

Scenario 2

Negligible senescence after age 60

Radical scenario: No aging after age 60

Population projection with negligible senescence scenario

Changes in population pyramid 100 years later

Conclusions on radical scenario

Even in the case of defeating aging (no aging after 60 years) the natural population growth is relatively small (about 20% increase over 70 years)

Moreover, defeating aging helps to prevent natural population decline in developed countries

AcknowledgmentsThis study was made possible thanks to:

generous support from the National Institute on Aging, and

stimulating working environment at the Center on

Aging, NORC/University of Chicago

AcknowledgmentsThis study was made possible thanks to:

generous support from the SENS/Methuselah Foundation

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http://longevity-science.org

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http://longevity-science.blogspot.com/

Gavrilov, L., Gavrilova, N. Reliability theory of aging and longevity. In: Handbook of the Biology of Aging. Academic Press, 6th edition (published recently).