Biological processes on ecological temporal scales Join the ultimate scientific challenge! - How...

16
Biological processes on ecological temporal scales Join the ultimate scientific challenge! - How close to the cliff are we? A biology research program of the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Reserach (SCAR) studying ©: C. Cheng, P. Convey/BAS, J. Gutt, AWI/Marum, F. Hinz, H. Link, NASA, J. Turner as of January 2014, partially updated January 2016, provided by Julian Gutt

description

© J. Gutt To answer thiese questions we have to: examine biological PROCESSES, define their TOLERANCE limits and determine RESISTANCE and RESILIENCE to change. How close to the cliff are we? Join the ultimate scientific challenge! - How close to the cliff are we? What happens before we reach the cliff? What does the cliff look like? What happens behind the cliff?

Transcript of Biological processes on ecological temporal scales Join the ultimate scientific challenge! - How...

Page 1: Biological processes on ecological temporal scales Join the ultimate scientific challenge! - How close to the cliff are we? A biology research program.

Biological processeson ecological temporal scales

Join the ultimate scientific challenge! - How close to the cliff are we?

A biology research program of theScientific Committee on Antarctic Reserach (SCAR)

studying

©: C. Cheng, P. Convey/BAS, J. Gutt, AWI/Marum, F. Hinz, H. Link, NASA, J. Turner

as of January 2014, partially updated January 2016,

provided by Julian Gutt

Page 2: Biological processes on ecological temporal scales Join the ultimate scientific challenge! - How close to the cliff are we? A biology research program.

© J. Gutt

The Antarctic is changing, parts of it are changing rapidly:climate change & direct human impact

Rapid environmental change providesa globally significant opportunity

to understand ecosystem functioning.

Research demands unique but not isolated approaches.

Antarctic ecosystems are unique but not isolated.

Join the ultimate scientific challenge! - How close to the cliff are we?

Page 3: Biological processes on ecological temporal scales Join the ultimate scientific challenge! - How close to the cliff are we? A biology research program.

© J. Gutt

To answer thiese questions we have to:

examine biological PROCESSES,

define their TOLERANCE limits and

determine RESISTANCE and RESILIENCE to change.

How close to the cliff are we?

Join the ultimate scientific challenge! - How close to the cliff are we?

What happens before we reach the cliff?

What does the cliff look like?

What happens behind the cliff?

Page 4: Biological processes on ecological temporal scales Join the ultimate scientific challenge! - How close to the cliff are we? A biology research program.

Thresholds: when environmental changes cause rapidecological changes (similar to 'tipping point')

Resilience: self-repairing capacity of an ecosystem

Adaptation: adjustment of an organism to a changing or stabeenvironment.Modern biomolecular studies analyse the ratesat which genetic information is translated tometabolically relevant substances ("omics") and,thus, allow conclusions on the adaptation of organisms.

Join the ultimate scientific challenge! - How close to the cliff are we?

Resistance: ability of an ecosystem to resist perturbations anddisturbances without being significantly changed

© J. Gutt

Page 5: Biological processes on ecological temporal scales Join the ultimate scientific challenge! - How close to the cliff are we? A biology research program.

Join the ultimate scientific challenge! - How close to the cliff are we?

The scientific core of AnT-ERA are the three themes in the centrewith a cascadal flow of information from one level to the other,

and interacting with a broader scientific community.

Page 6: Biological processes on ecological temporal scales Join the ultimate scientific challenge! - How close to the cliff are we? A biology research program.

© Gutt et al.

Theme 1:Physiological limits, biomolecular processes, and thresholds

Somero 2012. Ann Rev Mar SciBlue mussel, example from temperate intertidal (Califormia)

Join the ultimate scientific challenge! - How close to the cliff are we?

Antarctic icefish: P. macropterus

© J. Gutt

Page 7: Biological processes on ecological temporal scales Join the ultimate scientific challenge! - How close to the cliff are we? A biology research program.

© Gutt et al.

Theme 2: Population processes

© P. Convey, BAS; South Georgia

Introduced plants reproducedue to climate-inducedinvasion of pollinators.

Ecosystem functioning changeswhere predators invade

© BAS; South Georgia© J. Gutt, Peter I. Island

Join the ultimate scientific challenge! - How close to the cliff are we?

Page 8: Biological processes on ecological temporal scales Join the ultimate scientific challenge! - How close to the cliff are we? A biology research program.

Join the ultimate scientific challenge! - How close to the cliff are we?

- carbon storage,- maintenance of biocomplexity,- production and regeneration- response to climate change- identification of drivers

Theme 3: Ecosystem functioning & services

• experiments• models• field work

Examples of simulations of benthic dynamics, e.g.disturbance by and recolonisation after iceberg impact (left) and SO deep-sea dynamics (right).

Model performance:M. Potthoff, AWI

Page 9: Biological processes on ecological temporal scales Join the ultimate scientific challenge! - How close to the cliff are we? A biology research program.

© J. Gutt

• scientific (results and) reviews

• contributions to other initiatives, e.g., annual updates of theAntarctic Climate Change and the Environment (ACCE) report

• capacity building (APECS & emerging national programmes)

• outreach

Communication - Dissemination - Coordination

Deliverables

Join the ultimate scientific challenge! - How close to the cliff are we?

Page 10: Biological processes on ecological temporal scales Join the ultimate scientific challenge! - How close to the cliff are we? A biology research program.

Additional:IASCANTOSAPECSSOOSIWCANTABIFSC-ATAS (SCAR)LGPANTOSGACS other nat. &internat. surveys

AntEco

ICEDbiodiversity patterns

system evolution,governance, mitigation

CCAMLR living ressources

ACCE

AnT-ERA

adaptation

SOOSbiological processes:thresholds & resilienceunder climate change

genes, populations,

pelagic, circumpolarclimate, fisheries,biogeochemistry

ecosystems

AntClim21

physical, biological,chemical parameters

predictions: atmosphere, cryosphere,ocean

EGBAMM

Join the ultimate scientific challenge! - How close to the cliff are we?

Relationships to other scientific initiatives

© J. Gutt

Page 11: Biological processes on ecological temporal scales Join the ultimate scientific challenge! - How close to the cliff are we? A biology research program.

© J. Gutt

Why now?

New tools

Globally significant

(Rapid) change expected to continue

Join the ultimate scientific challenge! - How close to the cliff are we?

Page 12: Biological processes on ecological temporal scales Join the ultimate scientific challenge! - How close to the cliff are we? A biology research program.

© J. Gutt

Tools & Implementation

• in situ research (e.g. new key sites, new technology, experiments)

• laboratory approaches („-omics“, physiology)

• in silico analyses (process modelling, advanced data mining)

• Mini-grants

Join the ultimate scientific challenge! - How close to the cliff are we?

Page 13: Biological processes on ecological temporal scales Join the ultimate scientific challenge! - How close to the cliff are we? A biology research program.

© J. Gutt

Scientific steering committee:L. Peck, C. Verde, B. Adams, I. Hogg, D. Wall, A. Takahashi, V. Cummings,I.-Y. Ahn, C. Smith, E. Isla, I. Schloss, J. Xavier, S. Ott, J. Gutt (chief officier)

AntClim 21 liaison: T. BracegirdleICED liaison: E. MurphyIASC liaison: M. KędraAntEco liaison: D. CowanAPECS representatives: C. Suckling & T. McIntyreEASIZ ex officio: G. di Prisco

Three preparatory meetings:Castiglionchello, May 2010; Delmenhorst, Oct 2011; Modena, Jan 2012

Draft of the proposal distributed for discussion and contributions toLS SSG & "SCAR community" plus approx. 100 external experts.

Three official reviews (rating 1-10): average 8.3, science: 9.0

Approved by SCAR delegates: July 2012 (Portland OSC)

Official start: July 2013 (Barcelona, Biology Symp.)

Re-evaluation: 2016/17

Join the ultimate scientific challenge! - How close to the cliff are we?

Page 14: Biological processes on ecological temporal scales Join the ultimate scientific challenge! - How close to the cliff are we? A biology research program.

Achievements (since 2013)

Join the ultimate scientific challenge! - How close to the cliff are we?

Scientific output• peer-reviewed papers• special volumes edited by AnT-ERA SC members• official reports

Capacity building• AnT-ERA workshop Molecular and Genetic Advances, Napoli 2014• AnT-ERA workshop Interactions between Biological and Environmental Processes,

Barcelona 2015• Contributions to many workshops, e.g. APECS, ANTOS, 1st SCAR Horizon Scan.

Dissemination of scientific information• Web-site ( 52 000 clicks) & mailing list (>550 members)∼• Major contributions to SCAR conferences and symposia• Updates of the ACCE report to ATCM• Contributions to the Antarctic Environments Portal

Page 15: Biological processes on ecological temporal scales Join the ultimate scientific challenge! - How close to the cliff are we? A biology research program.

Join the ultimate scientific challenge! - How close to the cliff are we?

Research projects under the leadership of or with major contributions from AnT-ERA SC members

• Polarstern 82 and 96 (Isla)• James Clark Ross 15004 (Xavier)• Cape Adare Expedition (Cummings)• TEAM-Fish (di Prisco)

Support of early career scientists through• travel mini-grants• supervision/teaching• chairing and orgganising APECS workshops

Achievements (since 2013)

Page 16: Biological processes on ecological temporal scales Join the ultimate scientific challenge! - How close to the cliff are we? A biology research program.

Program Planning Group:Delmenhorst-workshop, Oct 2011, missing: L. Peck, V. Cummings

Join the ultimate scientific challenge! - How close to the cliff are we?