Biogas in Scandinavia Skandinavisk Biogaskonference, Skive, 7. november 2017, Knud Boesgaard, FREMSYN

Setting the right perspective

Gedsermøllen (1957) 24 m wingspan

Vestas V164 (2017) 164 m wingspan

Nature Energy Korskro (2018) 710.000 tonnes of biomass

Tvindmøllen (1975) 54 m wingspan

Biogas status in Scandinavia

Denmark Sweden Norway Finland Number of biogas plants

165 282 40 84

Number of upgrading plants

12 61 9 10

Production Nm3 Production TWh

333,000,000 Nm3 3,3 TWh

202,000,000 NM3 2,1TWh

80,000,000 0,8 TWh

80,000,000 Nm3 0,8 TWh

09%

26%

15%

50%

Sweden

09%

26%

15%

50% Sweden Flare

Direct to heatand power

Grid injection,other

Grid injectionto transport

00%

46%

54%

01%

Denmark

11%

76%

09%

03%

Finland

20%

40%

20%

20%

Norway

Biogas incentives Denmark Sweden Norway Finland

Taxes Full energy and CO2 tax on biomethane

40% company tax reduction for using NGVs Biomethane exempt from fuel taxes

Biomethane exempt from fuel taxes

CO2 tax exemption for biogas

Subsidies Feed-in-premium: biomethane to power biomethane to grid

Fund for climate projects (163,5 million € in 2019-2020)

€1,65 / m3 manure Investment grant for biomethane plants

Feed-in-premium: biomethane to power

Other measures Biotickets Minimum of 0,9% advanced biofuels in 2020

Target of 75% environmentally friendly vehicles in public sector Free parking

Pump law: large tank stations (more than 1000m3 capacity must sell one alternative fuel)

Investment subsidy Construction subsidy

Status of NGV deployment

NGV cars NGV buses NGV vans and trucks Total NGV’s Filling

stations # % # % # % # % #

Denmark 93 0,00% 73 0,54% 197 0,05% 363 0,01% 15

Norway 126 0,00% 624 3,84% 522 0,10% 1.282 0,04% 18

Sweden 42.675 0,90% 2.357 16,97% 8.079 1,31% 54.439 1,01% 218

Finland 2,375 29

Biogas for transport in Denmark

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

mio

. Nm

3

Development of gas consumption for transport in Denmark

Bionaturgas Naturgas FREMSYN estimates

Trends • Transition to bio nature gas • Sales of CBG almost exclusively runned by local

offers in the municipalities

Gas stations in Denmark Existing and planned gas stations – January 2016

Interessefællesskabet for biogas til transport *Interest community for biogas in transport

• Investigation of opportunities barriers for biogas in heavy transport

• Report series

• Send an e-mail to: knud@fremsyn.net

Lots of potential … Cleaner than the alternatives ... And it’s cheaper …

Danish biogas potential in transport

Calculations for busses are based on numbers from The Danish Transport, Construction and Housing Authority Numbers City-transport og renovation are based The Danish Energy Agency’s ”Rammevilkår for gas til tung transport”

5%

10%

15%

An

del a

f dan

sk b

ræn

dsto

ffor

brug

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Pote

ntie

lt å

rlig

t ga

sfor

brug

[

mio

. m3 ]

Højt scenarieCity-transportRenovationBusserENS fremskrivning af biogas i naturgasnettet

Emissions from biogas for transport

-100,0

-50,0

-

50,0

100,0

150,0

200,0

Fossil Diesel Biodiesel,RME

Bionaturgas El

Ton

s C

O2-

eq /

10

0.0

00

km

Greenhouse gas emissions

Kørselsemissioner Opstrømsemissioner

-

100,0

200,0

300,0

400,0

500,0

600,0

Fossil Diesel Biodiesel,RME

Bionaturgas El

kg N

Ox

/ 1

00

.00

0 k

m

NOx emissions

Kørselsemissioner Opstrømsemissioner

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

3,5

4

4,5

5

5,5

6

6,5

Fossil DieselBiodiesel, RMEBionaturgas El

kg p

arti

kler

/ 1

00

.00

0 k

m

Particle emissions

Kørselsemissioner Opstrømsemissioner

Euro VI grænse, gas

Euro VI grænse, diesel

Euro VI grænse, diesel

Euro VI grænse, gas

Kørselsemissioner fra leverandøroplysninger

Modelkørsler

Biofuels in Denmark

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2013 2014 2015 2016

Biodiesel Ethanol

m3

Palmeolie (1G) Rapsolie (1G) Canola (1G) Korn (1G) Sukker (1G ) Andet Animalsk fedt (2G)

2GA biofuels in the next RE Directive

New goal achievement from Ren Energi-pakken *Clean Energy regulatory

Existing goal achievement from the ILUC directive

- From 2020, Denmark introduces a requirement for advanced biofuels of 0.5%

- The EU Commissioncurrently discuss raising this requirement to 3.5% by 2030

- Økonominotatet (the financial note) examines the socioeconomic and state-financial effects of 3 alternatives to fulfillment of the requirement; Bio nature gas, Advanced Bioethanol and Advanced Biodiesel

Socio-economics in 2GA

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

DK

K/G

J

Biogas

Prisspænd

Anvendt pris

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

DK

K/G

J

2GA bioethanol

Prisspænd

Anvendt pris

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

DK

K/G

J

2GA biodiesel

Prisspænd

Anvendt pris

Socio-economic net present value 2017 - 2030

Biogas Bioethanol Biodiesel

Fuel gains +953 -1.192 -1.688

Infrastructure costs -602 0 0

Additional costs for gas vehicles -308 0 0

Externality gains +834 +64 +372

Cross border trade +435 +306 +118

Tax distortion +136 +92 +8

Total socio-economic gains +1448 -731 -1189

Total government revenue, present value

million. kr. +513 +345 +29

100,000 km in a bus

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

-400.000

-200.000

0

200.000

400.000

600.000

800.000

Fossil diesel B7 Diesel 1G Biodiesel (RME) Bionaturgas El

ton

s C

O2

/ 1

00

.00

0 k

m

DK

K /

10

0.0

00

km

Moms

Brændstofpris

NOx afgift

CO2 afgift

Mineralolieafgiften / Gasafgift

CO2-ækv emissioner

Infrastructure and vehicle cost estimates

Scandianvian policy developments Denmark Sweden Norway Finland

EV’s are heavily favoured over NGV’s. Increasing taxes on NGV cars Tax system doesn’t differ between natural gas and biomethane No environmental requirements for public transportation No strategy for alternative fuels 100% of gas to transport is biogas due to bioticket system

Public fleets are dominantly biomethane when possible Regions Skåne, Halland and Västra Götaland actively promoting biomethane for NGV’s. 70% of gas for transport is biogas

Oslo has a target of 100% renewable energy in public transport Expects to implement toll-roads, where toll is based on CO2 and NOx emissions Green vehicle strategy review in 2017 New green vehicle strategy in 2018 16% of gas for transport is biogas

Focus on double counting towards 2GA in Renewable energy directive Positive attitude towards biogas in heavy transport

Thank you for your time! Knud Boesgaard

knud@fremsyn.net +45 6171 8811

Potential for biogas in busses

-

200

400

600

800

1.000

1.200

1.400

1.600

-

10

20

30

40

50

60

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Po

ten

tiel

le b

ioga

sbu

sser

i u

db

ud

Gas

forb

rug

[mio

. Nm

3]

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Gas

forb

rug

[mio

. Nm

3]

Movia BAT Fynbus Sydtrafik Midttrafik NT

Biogas potential in traffic companies’ supplies

Akkumuleret forbrugskurve

Project developing

- Development of consortias - Applications - Implementation and reporting

Fleet analysis

- Consumption Needs - TCO (Total Cost of Ownership) - Assisting and support of

implementation

Environmental and climate analysis

- Climate scenarios - Emission inventories - Socioeconomic calculations

Technoeconomic parameters

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Elbus Biogasbus Dieselbus

km

Range

-1500

-1000

-500

0

500

1000

1500

Bionaturgas Avanceret bioethanol Avanceret biodieselMio

. kr

Socioeconomic gain goal achievement with advanced biofuels 2017-2030 (DKK million)

Biogas in Scandinavia EBA has XX biogas plants Finland: https://wiki.uef.fi/display/BIOMAP/Piia+Ikonen%2C+biogas+in+Finland http://www.cbg100.net/news/finnish-biogas-statistics-2015/