Biofuels trade in Latin America: Regional and Global Perspectives
-
date post
19-Oct-2014 -
Category
Documents
-
view
1.707 -
download
0
description
Transcript of Biofuels trade in Latin America: Regional and Global Perspectives
![Page 1: Biofuels trade in Latin America: Regional and Global Perspectives](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051311/544406d6afaf9fa0098b4739/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Biofuels trade in Latin America:
Regional and Global Perspectives
The Role of Trade and Markets in
Addressing Climate Change and
Sustainable Development
Cancun, December 8th 2010
David Laborde – [email protected]
![Page 2: Biofuels trade in Latin America: Regional and Global Perspectives](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051311/544406d6afaf9fa0098b4739/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Overview of the presentation
• Introduction
• Where do we stand? Trade pattern in Biofuels
• Opportunities and Remaining barriers
• How to make it works?
![Page 3: Biofuels trade in Latin America: Regional and Global Perspectives](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051311/544406d6afaf9fa0098b4739/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Introduction
• Trade in Biofuels: New Hope or Phantom
Menace for mitigations
• All Biofuels are not equal
From Valin, 2010
![Page 4: Biofuels trade in Latin America: Regional and Global Perspectives](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051311/544406d6afaf9fa0098b4739/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
TRADE PATTERN IN BIOFUELS
![Page 5: Biofuels trade in Latin America: Regional and Global Perspectives](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051311/544406d6afaf9fa0098b4739/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Biodiesel
Production
(thds barrels a day)
Consumption
(thds barrels a day)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Asia & Oceania
Africa
Middle East
Eurasia
Europe
North America
Uruguay
Peru
Paraguay
Honduras
Guatemala
Colombia
Brazil
Argentina
EIA, 2010
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Asia & Oceania
Africa
Middle East
Eurasia
Europe
North America
Uruguay
Peru
Paraguay
Honduras
Guatemala
Colombia
Brazil
Argentina
EIA, 2010
![Page 6: Biofuels trade in Latin America: Regional and Global Perspectives](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051311/544406d6afaf9fa0098b4739/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Biodiesel Net trade (thds barrels a day) 2009
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
EIA, 2010
![Page 7: Biofuels trade in Latin America: Regional and Global Perspectives](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051311/544406d6afaf9fa0098b4739/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Ethanol
Production
(thds barrels a day)
Consumption
(thds barrels a day)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Asia & OceaniaAfricaMiddle EastEurasiaEuropeNorth AmericaVirgin Islands, U.S.UruguayTrinidad and TobagoPeruParaguayJamaicaGuatemalaEl SalvadorEcuadorCubaCosta RicaColombiaBrazilBoliviaArgentina
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Asia & Oceania
Africa
Middle East
Eurasia
Europe
North America
Virgin Islands, U.S.
Uruguay
Trinidad and Tobago
Peru
Paraguay
Jamaica
Guatemala
El Salvador
Ecuador
Cuba
Costa Rica
Colombia
Brazil
Bolivia
Argentina
![Page 8: Biofuels trade in Latin America: Regional and Global Perspectives](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051311/544406d6afaf9fa0098b4739/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Ethanol Net trade (thds barrels a day) 2009
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
EIA, 2010
![Page 9: Biofuels trade in Latin America: Regional and Global Perspectives](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051311/544406d6afaf9fa0098b4739/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Regional Production Pattern (2009)
Argentina39.9%
Brazil47.8%
Colombia9.8%
Guatemala0.0%
Honduras0.0% Paraguay
0.2%
Peru2.1%
Uruguay0.2%
Biodiesel Production - LAC
Argentina0.1%
Bolivia0.3%
Brazil94.6%
Colombia1.1%
Costa Rica0.3%
Cuba0.1%
Ecuador0.0%
El Salvador0.5%
Guatemala0.3%
Jamaica1.5%
Paraguay0.4%
Peru0.2%
Trinidad and Tobago0.6%
Uruguay0.0%
Virgin Islands,
U.S.0.1%
Other2.8%
Ethanol Production - LAC
EIA, 2010
![Page 10: Biofuels trade in Latin America: Regional and Global Perspectives](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051311/544406d6afaf9fa0098b4739/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Regional markets vs World Markets:
Export structure of the large exporters
94.3%
4.0%
0.6%
0.9%0.2%
0.1%
5.7%
Argentina Biodiesel Exports (2009)
EU USA Brazil Peru China Rest of the World
F.O. Licht (2010)
28%
3%
3%
15%
0%
5%
3%
10%
33%
Brazil Ethanol exports (2009)
EU Costa Rica
El Salvador Jamaica
Colombia Trinidad and Tobaggo
Mexico USA
Asia
F.O. Licht (2010)
![Page 11: Biofuels trade in Latin America: Regional and Global Perspectives](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051311/544406d6afaf9fa0098b4739/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Regional markets vs World Markets:
Stronger regional involvement of smaller countries
0%
90%
6%4%
Ecuador Ethanol Exports (2009)
EU Colombia Peru Rest of the world
F.O. Licht (2010)
90%
10% 0%
Bolivia Ethanol exports (2009)
EU Peru Rest of the world
F.O. Licht (2010)
![Page 12: Biofuels trade in Latin America: Regional and Global Perspectives](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051311/544406d6afaf9fa0098b4739/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
OPPORTUNITIES AND
REMAINING BARRIERS
![Page 13: Biofuels trade in Latin America: Regional and Global Perspectives](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051311/544406d6afaf9fa0098b4739/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Regional demand will grow
Country Biofuel Addition of biofuel
Argentina
Ethanol 5%
Biodiesel
7% on August 2010
10% since July 2011
Bolivia
Ethanol No goals
Biodiesel2,5% since 2007
20% on 2015
BrazilEthanol 25%
Biodiesel 5% since 2010
ChileEthanol Between 2-5% since 2008
Biodiesel Between 2-5% since 2008
Colombia
Ethanol10%
20% on 2012
Biodiesel
Till 8% by 2010
10% in Santander, Cesar
South, Antioch and West
of the country.
7% in Bogota in central
and eastern plains region.
Costa RicaEthanol till 2% by 2010
Biodiesel
EcuadorEthanol 10%
Biodiesel 2,5%
El Salvador Biofuel
Goal of replacing 15% of
the consumption of fossil
fuels.
Guatemala Biofuel
Goal of replacing 15% of
the consumption of fossil
fuels..
Country Biofuel Addition of biofuel
Honduras BiofuelGoal of replacing 15% of the
consumption of fossil fuels
JamaicaEthanol 10%
Biodiesel No goals.
México Biofuel No goals.
Nicaragua BiofuelGoal of replacing 15% of the
consumption of fossil fuels
Panamá Biofuel
Goal of replacing 15% of the
consumption of fossil fuels
10% of ethanol since 2009.
ParaguayEthanol 18 - 24%
Biodiesel 5%
Peru
Ethanol 7,8%
Biodiesel2% since 2009
5% by 2011
República
Dominicana
Ethanol 15% by 2015
Biodiesel 2% by 2015
Uruguay
Ethanol No goals.
BiodieselB2 by 2008 – 2011
B5 by 2012
FIESP-IICA, 2010
= x5 regional demand –
without Brazil - for biofuels
![Page 14: Biofuels trade in Latin America: Regional and Global Perspectives](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051311/544406d6afaf9fa0098b4739/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Remaining barriers
• Remaining Barriers. Protection faced by LA
exporters
• But also:
• Domestic subsidies
• Export taxes structure (e.g. Argentina)
Biodiesel Ethanol
Africa 4.20% 24.22%
Asia 3.42% 85.89%
Europe 0.49% 37.60%
North America 3.09% 40.86%
Latin America 1.15% 57.72%
![Page 15: Biofuels trade in Latin America: Regional and Global Perspectives](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051311/544406d6afaf9fa0098b4739/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
US and EU policies will matter too
Real Income effects of US and
EU mandates, %
-1.0% -0.5% 0.0% 0.5%
Brazil
CAMCarib
China
CIS
EU27
IndoMalay
LAC
SSA
US
Mandate
Mandate and trade liberalization
Mandate without sugarcane ethanol
Net Emissions Balance of US
and EU mandates (grCO2/MJ)
Al Riffai, Dimaranan and Laborde, 2010
-30 -20 -10 0 10
-20.8
-28
7.92
EU and US Mandates
EU and US Mandates and trade liberalization
EU and US Mandates without sugarcane ethanol
![Page 16: Biofuels trade in Latin America: Regional and Global Perspectives](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051311/544406d6afaf9fa0098b4739/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
HOW TO MAKE IT WORKS?
![Page 17: Biofuels trade in Latin America: Regional and Global Perspectives](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051311/544406d6afaf9fa0098b4739/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Define clear priorities
• Biofuels vs common sense:
• Kill two birds with one stone vs A bird in the hand is worth two in
the bush
• Environmental policy? Energy policy? Farm policy? Policy
Reduction Strategy?
• One rule in economy: One goal=one tool
• International and domestic inefficiencies (e.g. combination of
mandates and subsidies)
• Decisions to make about
• The type of biofuels, the type of feedstocks
• The scale of production & the degree of concentration
![Page 18: Biofuels trade in Latin America: Regional and Global Perspectives](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051311/544406d6afaf9fa0098b4739/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Different economic costs:
A Peruvian Illustration
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
Palm Oil -Commercial
Palm Oil - Small Holder
Jatropha Commercial
Jatropha Smallholder
Sugar Cane Ethanol (Coastal
Region)
Sugar Cane Ethanol
(Amazonian Region, including
small holders)
Ethanol made from molasses
(average)
US
D/lit
er
Laborde and Al Riffai, 2010 & FAO
Deforestation
Deforestation
![Page 19: Biofuels trade in Latin America: Regional and Global Perspectives](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051311/544406d6afaf9fa0098b4739/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
• Domestic policy vs Regional policy
• Domestic policies will lead to “protectionist” behaviour
• Regional approach requires coordination
• Managing
• Small countries, Large countries
• Agricultural exporters vs Agricultural importers
• Biofuel exporters vs Oil exporters
• If Latin America, find a regional agreement (e.g. phasing
out of trade barriers and subsidies, sustainability criteria),
it can export the model to a global basis. Otherwise, it
will strongly undermine the possibility to reach a global
agreement