Biofuels in Brazil: Biofuels in Brazil: Government policies, plansGovernment policies, plans

and challenges aheadand challenges ahead

Marcelo PoppeMarcelo PoppeCenter for Strategic Studies and Management Center for Strategic Studies and Management -- CGEECGEE

World Bank World Bank -- Energy Week 2009Energy Week 2009Energy, Development and Climate ChangeEnergy, Development and Climate ChangeWashington, DC, March 31 to April 2, 2009 Washington, DC, March 31 to April 2, 2009

Global biofuel market:Global biofuel market:expansion, land useand competitiveness

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Reproduced from Reproduced from UnepUnep, , February 2009. The environmental food crisis

WorldWorldBiofuels Biofuels todaytoday

Public policies regarding biofuelsPublic policies regarding biofuelsWorldWorld

WorldWorldAgricultural land availabilityAgricultural land availability

Source: World Watch Institute

Land use needs for Land use needs for sugarcane sugarcane bioethanolbioethanol

Brazilian Brazilian bioethanolbioethanol production: 265 thousands b/dproduction: 265 thousands b/dBrazilian land use: 2.6 million ha of sugar cane cropsBrazilian land use: 2.6 million ha of sugar cane crops

Gasoline world consumption: 20 million b/dGasoline world consumption: 20 million b/d

Global ethanol production needs for E10 => 2.4 million b/dGlobal ethanol production needs for E10 => 2.4 million b/dWorld land use needs => 24 million ha of sugar cane cropsWorld land use needs => 24 million ha of sugar cane crops

to be distributed among tropical humid Countries: Latin America,to be distributed among tropical humid Countries: Latin America,Caribbean, Africa and Southern AsiaCaribbean, Africa and Southern Asia

to replace 10% of the global gasoline consumption (E10)2005 basis

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Sugarcane producersSugarcane producers((130 countries instead of 20 oil providers)130 countries instead of 20 oil providers)

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Source: Adapted from Laura Tetti, 2005

Sources: IEA – International Energy Agency (2005)

Ethanol yields (liters per hectare)

Sugarcane Sugarcane bioethanolbioethanol productivity and energy balanceproductivity and energy balance

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Brazilian bioethanol exports

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0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2000 2001 2002 2003 2005 2005 2006 2007 2008

Source: Secex/Unica

Bill

ion

liter

s

BiofuelsBiofuels

Brazilian experienceBrazilian experience

BrazilBrazil

Renewable andRenewable andnonnon--renewable sources sharerenewable sources share

Brazil: 1.7 t/toeBrazil: 1.7 t/toeWorld: 2.4 t/toeWorld: 2.4 t/toe

COCO2 2 emissionsemissions

45,8

12,76,2

54,2

87,393,8

0102030405060708090

100

Brasil (2007) World (2005) OECD (2005)

%

Renewable sources Non-renewable sources

BrazilBrazil

Domestic energy supplyDomestic energy supply

Source: BEN 2006

14.8%

12.6%

14.6%

3.0%

37.7%

9.6%6.0% 1.6%

Hydropower Firewood Sugar Cane Other Renewable Oil&Oil Products Natural Gas Coal Uranium

Renewables – 45.8%Non renewables – 54.9%

Source: Brazilian Energy Balance 2008Source: Brazilian Energy Balance 2008

BrazilBrazil

Sources: NIPE-Unicamp, IBGE and CTC

BrazilBrazil Sugarcane cultureSugarcane culture

Source: IBGE, 2008

Country total area851 Mha (100%)

Rural propertiesarea 355 Mha (42%)

Cultivated land area70 Mha (8%)

Sugarcane cropland for fuel3,5 Mha (0.5%)

Amazon forest 400 MhaPantanal 13 MhaAtlantic rain forest 3 Mha

Farming (2007) Area(Mha)

Soya 23Corn 12Sugar cane 7Agriculture 70Cattle 200

Progress over 30 years

40,00

45,00

50,00

55,00

60,00

65,00

70,00

75,00

80,00

85,00

7576

76/7

777

/78

78/7

979

/80

80/8

181

/82

82/8

383

/84

84/8

585

/86

86/8

787

/88

88/8

989

/90

90/9

191

/92

92/9

393

/94

94/9

595

/96

96/9

797

/98

98/9

999

/00

00/0

101

/02

02/0

303

/04

04/0

505

/06

06/0

7

tc/h

a

2,50

3,00

3,50

4,00

4,50

5,00

5,50

6,00

6,50

7,00

7,50

m3 /h

a

l/tc tc/ha m3/h

BrazilBrazilS

ourc

e:

Sou

rce:

Uni

caU

nica

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000Ethanol Cumulative Production (thousand m3 )

(200

4) U

S$ /

GJ

Ethanol prices in Brazil Rotterdam regular gasoline pricelong-term trend (Rotterdam gasoline prices) long-term trend (Ethanol prices)

1986

20042002

1999

1980

19901995

jul 2005

Learning curbLearning curb

Source: J Source: J GoldembergGoldemberg

Sou

rce:

CTC

Sou

rce:

CTC

Bioethanol from sugarcaneBioethanol from sugarcaneBrazilBrazil

Energetic biomass cost = US$ 1.4/GJ (industrial countries goal for 2020)

420 industrial units (100 new ones)

>70,000 producers; ~1,000,000 jobs

Knowledge frontier expansion :genetics, biotechnologies, hydrolysis...

25 billion liters in 200825 billion liters in 20085 billion exported5 billion exported

• Large experience using ethanol as mixed fuel for vehicles (1925) ~ 5%

• Proálcool (1975):

• up to 25% of bioethanol blended in the gasoline (E 25)

• 5 million pure bioethanol powered cars manufactured

• Flex-fuel motors using the E 25 blend, bioethanol or a mix of both (2003)

• 7 million flex-fuel cars manufactured / 90% of the 2008 new car market

• Delivered by all the 35,000 Country’s fuel station

Bioethanol for carsBioethanol for carsBrazilBrazil

19251925 19751975 20032003

BioelectricityBioelectricity

2007: 1.400 MWmedios

97%

3%Outras Fontes Biomassa (cana-de-açúcar)

2012: 3.300 MWmedios

94%

6%

Outras Fontes Biomassa (cana-de-açúcar)

15% in 2020*

* COGEN (www.internationalestatereal.com)

BrazilBrazil

kW 4

G~

G~

η =86%

PROCESSOINDUSTRIAL

6.140kW 18.322KWη = 84% η = 84%

100,96 t/h

35 t/h 65,96 t/h5,7 kgv/kWh 3,6 Kgv/kWh

35,00 t/h

CALDEIRA 66 bar - 520 º CQuantidade de Bagaço 46,1 Ton/h

49,47 t/h

150 º C

110 º C

16,49 t/h

Bioethanol challengesBioethanol challenges

technological improvement perspectivetechnological improvement perspective

BrazilBrazil

Scientific and technological baseScientific and technological baseScientific publications related with the sugar cane

Pesquisa em cana-de-açúcar

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005

EUABrasilSão PauloÍndiaAustráliaChina

Source: ISI – Web of Science (29/09/2006)Literature research: (TS=(sugarcane or "sugar cane" or Sacchacarum) or TI=(sugarcane or "sugar cane" or Sacchacarum) NOT TS=(alcoholism or psychiatr* or clinic or medicin*)

BrazilBrazil

Source: http://www.ifpri.org/2020/focus/focus14/focus14.pdf

Bioenergy technology road mapBrazilBrazil

GeneticsGeneticsnew varieties adapted to local soils and climate and resistent against diseases

BrazilBrazil

Biofactory: Biofactory: quickquick multiplicationmultiplication

Sugarcane of high biomass: energy caneSugarcane of high biomass: energy cane

BrazilBrazil

RecycleRecycle

HydrolysisHydrolysis

GasificationGasification

BiorefineriesBiorefineries

Next generationNext generation

Low impact mechanizationLow impact mechanization

20052005 20152015 20252025

Sugar caneSugar cane 70 t/ha70 t/ha 82 t/ha82 t/ha 94 t/ha94 t/ha

Industrial Industrial technologytechnology

l/tcl/tc l/hal/ha l/tcl/tc l/hal/ha l/hal/ha

8,2008,200 10,40010,400

3,6003,600

14,00014,000

1,2001,200

9,4009,400

6,0006,000

--------

6,0006,000

l/tcl/tc

ConventionalConventional 8585 100100 110110

HydrolysisHydrolysis ------ 1515 4040

TotalTotal 8585 115115 150150

BrazilBrazilProductivity perspectivesProductivity perspectives

(agro(agro--industrial technologies)industrial technologies)

Primary energy potential improvementPrimary energy potential improvement

Sugar caneSugar cane Energy caneEnergy cane

Productivity (t/ha)Productivity (t/ha) 7070 100100

Fiber (%)Fiber (%) 13.513.5 26.026.0

Trash (%)Trash (%) 14.014.0 25.025.0

Pol (%)Pol (%) 14.514.5 12.012.0

Total fiber (t/ha)Total fiber (t/ha) 19.319.3 51.051.0

Energy (GJ/ha)Energy (GJ/ha) 520520(12.5 toe)(12.5 toe)

1,1001,100(26 toe)(26 toe)

BrazilBrazil

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I foresee the time when industry shall no longer

denude the forests which require generations to

mature, nor use up the mines which were ages in the

making, but shall draw its raw material largely from the

annual products of the fields. I am convinced that we

shall be able to get out of the yearly crops most of the

basic materials which we now get from forest and

mine [Henry Ford, Modern Mechanics (1934)]

Global challengeGlobal challenge

Book in four languages launched during the International Conference on Biofuels, held in São Paulo (November/2008)

www.bioetanoldecana.orgwww.bioetanoldecanadeazucar.orgwww.sugarcanebioethanol.orgwww.bioetanoldecanne.org

Partnership: BNDES, CGEE,Partnership: BNDES, CGEE, ECLAC and FAOECLAC and FAOCoordination: Coordination: LuizLuiz A. A. HortaHorta NogueiraNogueira

Marcelo PoppeMarcelo Poppe

mpoppe@cgee.org.brmpoppe@cgee.org.br

www.cgee.org.brwww.cgee.org.br

Thank You !Thank You !

Three quarters of the world's energy supply come Three quarters of the world's energy supply come from fossil fuels, responsible for large local pollution from fossil fuels, responsible for large local pollution loads and for most of the greenhouse gases loads and for most of the greenhouse gases emissions. The scale on which they are being used emissions. The scale on which they are being used will quickly lead to their depletion. The world energy will quickly lead to their depletion. The world energy consumption should grow as a result of the progress consumption should grow as a result of the progress of many of the worldof many of the world’’s developing regions. Industrial s developing regions. Industrial countries have not succeeded in reducing energy countries have not succeeded in reducing energy use without compromising the quality of life, even use without compromising the quality of life, even though it is known that this can and must be done. though it is known that this can and must be done. The challenge, therefore, is to seek renewable The challenge, therefore, is to seek renewable energy sources and to increase efficiencies in energy energy sources and to increase efficiencies in energy production and use on an unprecedented scale.production and use on an unprecedented scale.

WorldWorldGlobal challengeGlobal challenge